Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan

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1 Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan
Matakuliah : J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen Tahun : 2005 Versi : 01/00 Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan

2 Learning Outcomes Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa akan mampu : Memahami proses pengambilan keputusan termasuk aspek-aspek yang mempengaruhi proses

3 Informas sebagai barang ekonomi Sifat dan tipe keputusan
Outline Materi Informas sebagai barang ekonomi Sifat dan tipe keputusan Model pengambilan keputusan Tahapan pengambilan keputusan

4 Informasi sebagai suatu barang ekonomi
Rantai transformasi: DATA - INFORMATION - KNOWLEDGE -- WISDOM Informasi adalah sebuah special good Biaya produksi tinggi Biaya reproduski quasi null Biaya tetap tinggi, namun biaya marjinal rendah Nilai informasi (waktu, volume, ketidakpastian) Harga Jual informasi tergantung pada nilai/manfaat, bukan pada biaya.

5 Sifat Dasar Decision Making
Pengambilan Keputusan Adalah tindakan memilih salah satu alternatif dari sekumpulan alternatif yang tersedia. Proses Pengambilan Keputusan Rangkaian Proses mengenali, mendefinisikan situasi, identifikasi alternatif, memilih alternatif terbaik, dan implementasinya. Sebuah keputusan yang efektif adalh yang mengoptimalkan beberapa faktor seperti laba, penjualan, kesejahteraan karyawan dan pangsa pasar. Para manajer membuat keputusan berkenaan dengan masalah dan kesempatan.

6 Keputusan Tak terprogram
Tipe Keputusan Keputusan Terprogram Suatu Keputusan yang cukup terstruktur (recurs) yang kerap berulang. Contoh : Memanaskan mesin mobil di pagi hari. Keputusan Tak terprogram Suatu keptusan yang relatif dan terstruktur dan terjadi sangat jarang dibandingkan keputusan teprogram. Contoh: Memilih tujuan wisata saat liburan.

7 Tipe Keputusan Routine and Non-Routine Decisions Objective vs. Bounded Rationality Level of Certainty

8 Kondisi Decision-Making
Decision Making Under Certainty Suatu kondisi dimana manajer memahami dengan baik alternatif yang tersedia serta kondisi berkaitan dengan setiap alternatif. Decision Making Under Risk Suatu kondisi berkenaan dengan ketersediaan alternatif dan potensi manfaat serta biaya resiko. Decision Making Under Uncertainty Suatu kondisi dimana manajer tidak mengetahui seluruh alternatif, resiko setiap alternatif, atu konsekuensi untuk setiap alternatif.

9 Uncertainty apa saja yang ada?
Uncertainty karena Teknologi Dell and LiOn battery Will it work? Will Sony as the only supplier have enough capacity? Uncertainty berkenaan permintaan Economic recession or boom, interest rates, inflation, consumer preferences Expansion of Saturn’s Spring Hill Plant Uncertainty karena persaingan Competitive actions and reactions Success of international expansion by Wal-Mart Success of new beverages of Coke and Pepsi

10 Isu lainnya dalam Decision Making
Incentives for Decision Makers Short-Run Versus Long-Run Decisions

11 Isu lainnya dalam Decision Making
Pitfalls yang harus dihindari Sunk costs. Allocated fixed costs. Unitized fixed costs. Opportunity costs.

12 Kondisi Decision-Making
Level of ambiguity and chances of making a bad decision Lower Higher Moderate Certainty Uncertainty Risk Kondisi yg dihadapi manajer...

13 Pandangan Rasional dalam Decision Making
Model Klasik Decision Making When faced with a decision situation, managers should . and end up with a decision that best serves the interests of the organization. • obtain complete and perfect information eliminate uncertainty evaluate everything rationally and logically Figure 9.2

14 Langkah Dasar Rational Decision Making
1. Identifikasi seluruh opsi (termasuk doing nothing). 2. Kuantifikasi nilai (biaya) konsekuensi yang mungkin timbul untuk setipa opsi 3. Prediksi likelihood untuk setiap konsekuensi. 4. Integrasi seluruh kemungkinan.

15 Kompenen Decision Making
State /Kondisi Adalah kondisi aktual yang mungkin terjadi di masa mendatang Keputusan / Decision Berbagai pilihan dimana seorang decision maker dapat memilih satu diantaranya Outcomes /hasil Hasil dari suatu kombinasi states dan decisions

16 Tahapan menuju Good Decisions
Definisikan problem dan influencing factors Tetapkan decision criteria Pilih model pengambilan keputusan Identifikasi dan evaluasi alternatif menggunakan model yang dipilih Pilih alternatif terbaik Implementasi keptusan Evaluasi hasil A major point to make here is that this process should be considered iterative. Once we have actually built and exercised the model, we may realize we did not understand the problem in the first place!

17 Models Memungkinkan manajer melakukan analisis “What if”.
Disusun untuk manajemen masalah dan manajemen input Force a consistent and systematic approach to the analysis of problems Require managers to be specific about constraints and goals relating to a problem Help reduce the time needed in decision making Several points: - good models are indeed built for the use of managers; the best are built by the managers who will use them. - different people solve the same problem in different ways - the optimal model will therefore be tailored to the problem and the individual solving it. - models are most important for the insight they allow you to gain, not for the numbers they produce. - models are for helping you understand problems, not for telling you what to do.

18 Keterbatasan Models They
may be expensive and time-consuming to develop and test are often misused and misunderstood (and feared) because of their mathematical and logical complexity tend to downplay the role and value of nonquantifiable information often have assumptions that oversimplify the variables of the real world Examples are helpful here: - cost of some models > $1,000,000 - many models employ probability and statistics, linear and non-linear programming; some employ chaos theory, and fuzzy logic - how do you represent the role of consumer bias in a computer? - assumptions of linearity, of continuity, of boundedness, etc.

19 The Decision-Making Process
Problem Decision Quantitative Analysis Logic Historical Data Marketing Research Scientific Analysis Modeling Qualitative Analysis Emotions Intuition Personal Experience and Motivation Rumors

20 Ways of Displaying a Decision Problem
Decision trees Decision tables Decision Problem Alternatives States of Nature Out- comes It can be useful here to explain what decision trees and decision tables are, and then ask students to suggest some problems that lend themselves to the use of one or the other of these models.

21 Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Process
Table 9.1a

22 Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Process (cont’d)
Table 9.1b

23 Evaluating Alternatives in the Decision-Making Process
Is the alternative feasible? Eliminate from consideration satisfactory? Are the alternative’s consequences affordable? Retain for further Yes No Figure 9.3

24 Behavioral Aspects of Decision Making (cont’d)
Bounded Rationality The concept that decision makers are limited by their values and unconscious reflexes, skills, and habits. Satisficing The tendency to search for alternatives only until one is found that meets some minimum standard of sufficiency to resolve the problem. Coalition A political force in decision making which consists of an informal alliance of individuals or groups formed to achieve a goal.

25 Behavioral Aspects of Decision Making (cont’d)
Intuition An innate belief about something without conscious consideration. Escalation of Commitment A decision maker is staying with a decision even when it appears to be wrong. Risk Propensity The extent to which a decision maker is willing to gamble when making a decision.

26 Behavioral Aspects of Decision Making (cont’d)
Ethics and Decision Making Individual ethics (personal beliefs about right and wrong behavior) combine with the organization’s ethics to create managerial ethics. Components of managerial ethics: Relationships of the firm to employees Employees to the firm The firm to other economic agents

27 Group and Team Decision Making in Organizations
Forms of Group Decision Making Interacting groups or teams are the most common form of decision-making groups which consists of an existing group or newly formed team interacting and then making a decision. Delphi groups are sometimes used for developing a consensus of expert opinion from a panel of experts who individually contribute through a moderator. Nominal groups are a structured technique designed to generate creative and innovative ideas through the individual contributions of alternatives that are winnowed down through a series of rank-ordering of the alternatives to reach a decision.

28 Advantages and Disadvantages of Group and Team Decision Making
Table 9.2

29 Managing Group and Team Decision-Making Processes
Managers Can Promote the Effectiveness of Group and Team Decision Making Being aware of the pros and cons of having a group or team make a decision. Setting deadlines for when decisions must be made. Avoid problems with dominance by managing group membership. Have each group member individually critically evaluate all alternatives. As a manager, do not make your position known too early. Appoint a group member to be a “devil’s advocate.” Hold a follow-up meeting to recheck the decision.