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ANALISIS LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN KOMODITAS PERTANIAN INDONESIA

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Presentasi berjudul: "ANALISIS LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN KOMODITAS PERTANIAN INDONESIA"— Transcript presentasi:

1 ANALISIS LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN KOMODITAS PERTANIAN INDONESIA
RESULTS FROM ATPSM

2 PERUBAHAN TATANAN EKONOMI DUNIA LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN
LATAR BELAKANG PERUBAHAN TATANAN EKONOMI DUNIA LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA MEMBUKA AKSES PASAR IMPOR PRODUK PERTANIAN SIAP BERSAING DGN PRODUK IMPOR REDUKSI SUBSIDI PERTANIAN WTO NEGOTIATIONS ON AGRICULTURE MARKET ACCESS, DOMESTIC SUPPORT, EXPORT SUBSIDY, KEBIJAKAN PERDAGANGAN ?

3 DEVELOPING COUNTRY CONCERNS IN THE POST URUGUAY ROUND PERIOD
The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture Led to Tariffication of many Non-tariff Barriers & Reduction Tarrifs Reductions of 36 per cent from bound tariff rates (with a minimum of 15 per cent on each tariff line), Additional reduction commitments on domestic support (20 per cent) Export subsidies (21 per cent in export volumes and 36 per cent in expenditure) to be implemented over six years. DEVELOVED COUNTRY IMPLEMENTED OVER 6 YEARS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AGREED TO COMMITMENTS AT TWO THIRDS OF THESE LEVELS IMPLEMENTED OVER 10 YEARS

4 WTO NEGOTIATIONS ON AGRICULTURE DOHA ROUND DEVELOPMENT
MARKET ACCESS, DOMESTIC SUPPORT, EXPORT SUBSIDY, SPECIAL AND DIFFERENTIAL TREATMENT FOR DC NON-TRADE CONCERNS. The post-UR tariff profile of many developed countries in particular is characterized by relatively high tariffs Bound tariffs are also high in many developing country markets which will affect negatively other developing countries as intra-developing country trade is high and growing. The UR did not reduce tariffs significantly Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) including access to quotas and rules of administration. DOHA ROUND DEVELOPMENT

5 Modalities are being debated in order to reach a negotiated agreement
DOHA ROUND DEVELOPMENT Modalities are being debated in order to reach a negotiated agreement Trade policy instruments and it is often not a simple task to quantify their impacts Model results are often criticized for not being accurate to the extent desired

6 MAIN OBJECTIVE QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENTS MODALITIES Uruguay Round
ECONOMICS IMPACT : VOLUME CHANGES IN C, M, X TRADE VALUE CHANGES WELFARE CHANGES- PRODUCER & CONSUMER SURPLUS & NET GOV REVENUE PRICE CHANGES- WORLD MARKET, CONSUMER AND FARM

7 A T P S M Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model
Comparative-Static Deterministic Partial equilibrium for agriculture product Multi commodity  35 commodities 160 countries plus EU25 plus RoW. (42 are LDCs, 99 RDCs and 20 DDs) However, the share of people employed in the agricultural sector is quite high. About 38 per cent of the total world employment is in the agricultural sector. And agriculture remains especially important in many developing countries. The agricultural sector contributes significantly to their production and employment.

8 A T P S M Reduction of out-of-quota tariffs
Reduction of in-quota tariffs Expansion of TRQ volumes Reduction of domestic subsidies Reduction of export subsidies.

9

10 DATA SOURCES FAOSTAT (Supply and Utilization Accounts and Trade Domain data) The quantities of production, consumption, export and imports AMAD (Agricultural Market Access Data Base) In-quota Tariffs, Out Quota Tariffs and Global Quotas UNCTAD COMTRADE  Source for Bilateral Trade Flows Agricultural trade accounts for about 10% of total merchandise trade. However, because the growth rates for trade in manufacturers are higher, this share is declining. Food products make up almost 80 of the internationally traded agricultural goods. The other main category is raw materials. In 2001 the agricultural production contributed to about 5 per cent of the world national product. This share is continuously decreasing. For example in 1970 this share was more than 10%. However, the share of people employed in the agricultural sector is quite high. About 38 per cent of the total world employment is in the agricultural sector. And agriculture remains especially important in many developing countries. The agricultural sector contributes significantly to their production and employment.

11 ALL COMMODITIES ARE ASSUMED
Limitations ALL COMMODITIES ARE ASSUMED TO BE TRADABLE (1) - No independent behaviour for domestic prices - No other domestic policies besides the Amber Box subsidies. - Agricultural commodities are assumed to be homogeneous and so there is perfect substitution among goods produced in different countries - Model does not account for the possibility of countries exerting market power - Comparative static model - No income variable in the model.

12 Limitations TARIFF LINE LEVEL CUTS (2) (3)
ATPSM DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR PREFERENTIAL ACCESS AND TRADE DIVERSION (3) BILATERAL TRADE ISSUES (NON-SPATIAL) QUOTA RENTS ARE DISTRIBUTED IN PROPORTION TO TRADE FLOWS. (4)

13 ATPSM Commodity Aggregation (1)
Livestock Bovine meat Sheepmeat Pigmeat Poultry Milk, fresh Milk, conc. Butter Cheese Hides and skins Wheat Maize Sorghum Barley Rice Sugar raw Sugar refined Oilseeds, temperate Oilseeds, tropical Vegetable oils

14 ATPSM Commodity Aggregation (2)
Pulses Roots, tubers Tomatoes Non-tropical fruits Citrus fruits Bananas Other tropical fruits Coffee green Coffee processed Cocoa beans Cocoa processed Tea Tobacco leaves Tobacco processed Rubber Cotton linters

15 Trade Policies Specified
Global import quota Bound in-quota tariff rates Bound out-of-quota tariff rates Applied tariff rates Distribution of quota rents Export subsidies Domestic support Production quota ATPSM EQUATIONS AND PROCEDURES Two tier tariff structure

16 Total Government Revenue
Skenario Liberalisasi Perdagangan Total Government Revenue ∆ Domestic support expenditure ∆ Export subsidy expenditure ∆ Government revenue ∆ Trade Policies ∆ Applied tariff rate ∆ Domestic support rate ∆ Export subsidy rate ∆ Global quota ∆ Out of quota bound tariff rate ∆ Within quota tariff rate Welfare Effect ∆ Producer Surplus ∆ Consumer Surplus ∆ Government Revenue ∆ Total Welfare ∆ Volume Produksi ∆ Volume Konsumsi ∆ Volume Impor ∆ Volume Ekspor ∆ Harga ∆ Domestic Producer Price ∆ Domestic Consumer Price ∆ Harga Dunia Trade Revenue ∆ Export revenue ∆ Import cost ∆ Trade balance ATPSM

17 hatur nuhun

18 Model Simulasi Kebijakan Perdagangan ATPSM
Pendekatan keseimbangan partial (partial equilibrium), fungsi permintaan, penawaran, ekspor dan impor dapat digambarkan sebagai berikut : Produksi (Sd) dan permintaan (Dd) tergantung secara linear pada harga domestik (Pd) Harga dunia (Pw) terhubung dengan harga domestik (Pd) oleh persamaan transmisi harga, atau harga pasar domestik merupakan fungsi harga pasar dunia Semua aturan proteksi dinyatakan dalam setara nilai tarif. Semua instrumen kebijakan digambarkan di dalam terminologi tariff ad velorem.

19 Pendekatan Model Tarif pasar dalam negeri (td) dihitung sebagai rataan terbobot dua pajak perdagangan, angka tariff ekspor (tx) dan tariff impor (tm), dimana pembobotnya adalah ekspor (X) dan impor (M): td = (X tx + M tm )/(M + X) (1)

20 Pendekatan Model Tariff konsumsi tc pada pasar dalam negeri dihitung sebagai rataan terbobot tarif impor (tm) dan tariff pasar dalam negeri (td) dimana pembobotnya adalah impor (M) dan penawaran dalam negeri (Sd): tc = (M tm + Sd td )/D (2)

21 Pendekatan Model ts = (X tx + Sd td )/S + tp ……….. (3)
Tariff penawaran ts (pasar dalam negeri) dihitung sebagai rataan terbobot tariff impor (tm) dan tariff pasar dalam negeri (td) dimana pembobotnya adalah ekspor (X) dan penawaran dalam negeri (Sd ) ditambah tariff penawaran dalam negeri (tp): ts = (X tx + Sd td )/S + tp ……….. (3)

22 Pendekatan Model Fungsi permintaan untuk negeri r dan komoditas i dinyatakan sebagai: Penawaran domestik untuk negeri r dan komoditas i dengan cara yang sama dinyatakan sebagai

23 Pendekatan Model Fungsi Impor dan ekspor dinyatakan :

24 No Variabel Batasan pengertian Indikator Unit Skala
1 PRODUKSI (S) Produksi komoditas pertanian Volume produksi komoditas yang ditawarkan pada masing-masing negara kg Rasio 2 PERMINTAAN (D) Permintaan komoditas pertanian Volume permintaan komoditas yang dikonsumsi pada masing-masing negara 3 IMPOR (M) Impor komoditas pertanian Volume impor komoditas yang diperlukan pada masing-masing negara 4 EKSPOR (X) Ekspor komoditas pertanian Volume ekspor komoditas pada masing-masing negara 5 TARIFF IMPOR (tm) Tariff impor komoditas pertanian Besar tariff impor yang diterapkan untuk komoditas di masing-masing negara % 6 TARIFF EKSPOR (tx) Tariff ekspor komoditas pertanian Besar tariff ekspor yang diterapkan untuk komoditas di masing-masing negara 7 TARIFF PASAR DALAM NEGERI (td) tariff pasar dalam negeri untuk komoditas pertanian Nilai angka tariff ekspor dan tariff impor/ekspor dan impor 8 TARIFF KONSUMSI (tc) Tariff konsumsi pasar dalam negeri untuk komoditas pertanian Nilai tariff impor dan tariff pasar/ impor dan penawaran dalam negeri 9 SUBSIDI DOMESTIK Nilai subsidi domestik produksi pertanian Nilai subsidi domestik untuk produksi komoditas , reduksi subsidi dinyatakan dalam setara nilai tariff $ US 10 HARGA DUNIA (Pw) Harga komoditas pertanian di pasar dunia Harga keseimbangan komoditas di pasar dunia

25 Analisis Data Perubahan pada permintaan dan penawaran merupakan fungsi dari elastisitas harga yang dipengaruhi oleh adanya perubahan tariff pada masing-masing komoditas di setiap negara. Kepekaan permintaan dan penawaran komoditas bergantung pada kepekaan terhadap perubahan harga yang terjadi Pendapatan perdagangan dan kesejahteraan dihitung didasarkan pada perubahan volume (yaitu., DX, DM, DS, dan DP) dan perubahan harga. Pengaruh pendapatan perdagangan dari perubahan kebijakan dihitung untuk masing-masing negeri dan komoditas

26 Analisis Data Kesejahteraan total adalah penjumlahan dari produser surplus, konsumer surplus dan belanja pemerintah DW = DPS + DCS +DNGR

27 Analisis Data ΔNGR = ΔTR - ΔES - ΔDS + (1-c) ΔU
Surplus Produsen dan Surplus Konsumen masing-masing negeri dan komoditas Perubahan Pendapatan Bersih Pemerintah (ΔNGR) disebabkan oleh perubahan pendapatan yang berasal dari tariff, perubahan pengeluaran untuk subsidi ekspor, subsidi domestik dan perubahan dalam in quota rent yang tidak diterima oleh eksportir ΔNGR = ΔTR - ΔES - ΔDS + (1-c) ΔU

28 Analisis Data Output dari model simulasi dengan menggunakan ATPSM pada skenario liberalisasi perdagangan yang ditetapkan akan menghasilkan perubahan jumlah maupun persentase yg terjadi pada : Harga komoditas pada harga pasar dunia, harga di tingkat konsumen dan harga di tingkat produsen. Jumlah komoditas pada sisi produksi, konsumsi, impor dan ekspor (X, M, S, dan D) Nilai perdagangan pada ekspor, impor, dan keseimbangan perdagangan Welfare effects pada surplus produsen, surplus konsumsi, penerimaan pemerintah dan kesejahteraan total


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