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TOPIK BAHASAN III. APBN SUSTAINABLE UKURAN EKONOMI

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Presentasi berjudul: "TOPIK BAHASAN III. APBN SUSTAINABLE UKURAN EKONOMI"— Transcript presentasi:

1 TOPIK BAHASAN III. APBN SUSTAINABLE UKURAN EKONOMI
Economic Growth Inflation Unemployment Pemerataan Pendapatan II. KEBIJAKAN FISKAL Infrastruktur Pendidikan Kesehatan Bantuan Sosial Subsidi III. APBN SUSTAINABLE Defisit Debt/ GDP

2 Indonesia’s Recent Macroeconomic
Indicators Minister of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia February 2011

3 Agenda Global Update Indonesian Economic Performance
Fiscal Policy and Budget Conclusion Good afternoon. Welcome to the annual review meeting. The presentation today will cover 3 key topics: 1) First, we will present the latest global economic outlook. The key theme is an outlook of regional and global economic growth. Indonesia as well as other emerging markets continue to perform well and show sustained economic growth. 2) Second, we will present the latest Indonesia’s economic performance. In summary, the macro-economic landscape of Indonesia remains healthy and positive with diversified growth, stable economic fundamentals, a positive FDI trend, robust FX reserve and capital inflows. 3) Third, we will show the implementation of the fiscal policy 2011 and give an overview of the 2011 government policy on fuel and electricity subsidy, transfer to local government, infrastructure policy and structural reform within Ministry of Finance. We will also highlight the 2011 state budget and key policies.

4 1. Global Update

5 In 2011 EM Asian economies will have modest growth although remain robust, inflation is a rising concern Figure 2: GDP growth will be softer in 2011 (%) Figure 7: Inflationary pressures continue to simmer 6.4% 6.7% Economic Growth in some EM Asian countries including China and India will  slightly move slower in 2011 and re-accelerate in 2012, but Indonesian economy is projected to continue rising in both 2011 and 2012. Inflationary pressures will increase in  EM Asia, driven by rising food prices due to weather factors, as well as the prices increase in other commodities such as oil and coal. Inflationary pressures has been a rising concern especially in Indonesia where the price of chili has been frequently quoted, this has been happening in the face of strong albeit slightly softening economic outlook in 2011. Economic Growth in some EM Asian countries including China and India will  slightly move slower in 2011, but Indonesian economy is projected to continue rising in both 2011 and 2012. Source: Barclays Capital , Ministry of Finance

6 EM Asia Bond Markets remain attractive for investors
Figure 3: Bond inflows continue even as momentum slows Figure 4: Risk-adjusted total returns for EM Asia bonds Bond market inflows continue its momentum as the EM yields remain attractive to its developed counterparts. Capital inflows are expected to continue flowing into Asian markets, due to region’s strong  economic fundamentals and currencies appreciation.

7 2. Indonesian Economic Performance

8 Summary of Indonesian Macro Indicators 2010
4/6/2017 8:08 PM Summary of Indonesian Macro Indicators 2010 Indonesia’s Economic Performance Economic Indicator Developments GDP Realization of GDP Growth Q is 5.8% (yoy), Full year 2010 estimates stands at 6.0%. Inflation Inflation in December 2010: 0.92% (mom); 6.96% (yoy/ytd). Volatile food prices through climate anomaly is the main contributor to the rise of inflation in 2010. Exchange Rate IDR has been appreciated 4.4% (ytd) in 2010 as compared to 12,7% appreciation last year. A strong capital inflow deemed as a major factor of Rupiah appreciation. Interest rate Bank Indonesia maintained BI rate at the level 6.5% in 2010, while average SBI 3 month is 6.57%. Foreign Reserve In December 2010, foreign reserve account hit another new record high at USD96.2 billion Export – Import Jan-Nov 2010, Indonesian export is US$140.7 billion and Import US$ billion. Commodities In 2010, oil price has appreciated by 15.1%; CPO 59.6%; and gold 29.5%. Stock index JCI has the largest appreciation in Asia at 46.1% for 2010 Government Bonds Yield SUN 10Y has been declined from 10.06% (2009) to 7.65%, (2010), whereas Yield SUN 5Y has slipped from % (2009) to 6.721% (2010). The Indonesian economy continues to exhibit financial resilience amid the global crisis. Let me talk you through some of the achievements indicated by key economic indicators. Indonesia’s GDP growth has continued to outperform expectations and will post 6.0% growth despite initial expectations of 5.8%. The government continues to be prudent in their fiscal management, and foreign reserves have been building up to the highest level in our history to USD 96.2 billion. Our stock markets have outperformed the regional indices, displaying continued interest by global investors in our capital markets. Meanwhile the bond market has also performed well, essentially lowering our borrowing cost. 8

9 Robust Indonesian Economy
Indonesia has had a clean record of growth since 1998, and has emerged from the crisis relatively untouched Indonesian economic growth remains robust… (%) High household consumption contribution is a major factor to Indonesia’s economic resiliency Sources of GDP Growth (YoY) Distribution GDP Growth Q3 2010 Indonesia has weathered the global credit crisis very well, and came out with strong growth momentum. An important point we want to highlight is our GDP growth has been very stable recent years. And we even came out of the crisis relatively unscathed with sufficient support from the government. We have maintained modest growth rate in 2009 and continued with a higher ttrajectory to reach 6.0% in And for the year of 2011 the economic growth is projected to achieve 6.4% Source: Ministry of Finance, BPS

10 Strong investment activity in both portfolio and real sector...
The foreign reserve capacity is strengthening supported by continuing capital inflows and export performance.. Net Foreign Buying Foreign Reserves Remain Healthy FDI Realization Projection Domestic Investment (PMDN) Realization Projection On this slide we can see the extent of capital inflow back into stocks and bonds from beginning of Net foreign buying to Indonesian securities drives stability in the exchange rate and shows a signal of prospective domestic capital market. Strengthened portfolio capital inflows is an indication of positive investor perceptions of the economic outlook for Indonesia. Following latest developments in the current account and the capital and financial accounts, foreign reserves reached US$96.2 billion by end of December 2010. Foreign direct investments have been increasing over the years, this has been the result of: Stable and positive economic fundamentals. Streamlined bureaucratic process. Consistent rules and regulations enforcement. Domestic investment realizations have also been increasing at an impressing rate to surpass 2007 level, prior to the global crisis . Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, BKPM

11 3. Fiscal Policy and Budget

12 Achieving Strong Economic Fundamentals
The government is committed to improve the people’s livelihood through strong and prudent macroeconomic growth. Inflation will be maintained to be as stable as it is before. Economic growth will be supporting through increasing infrastructure spending and lowering financing cost. In fighting poverty, the social programs have been extremely successful and there is a sharp decline in the poverty level since The government will continue on fund of these initiatives to bring down the poverty level to below 12% within the next few years. In the efforts to reduce poverty level, the government concerns with infrastructure spending to improve unemployment issues. With increasing infrastructure budget, we have been able to drive down the unemployment rates to around 7%. In addition, the government is currently running several ongoing social programs through National Health Security, Educational Operation Aid and Society Empowerment program. Through strong and stable macroeconomic condition, the unemployment and poverty numbers will continue to decline. Source: Ministry of Finance, BPS

13 Realization (Audited) Realization (Unaudited)
Revised Budget Realization 2009 – Summary I-Acc (Trillion Rp) 2009 2010 Items Rev. Budget Realization (Audited) % Realization (Unaudited) % to Rev. Budget % to GDP % to 2009 Realization A. State Revenue and Grants 871,0 848,8 97,4 992,4 1.014,0 102,2 16,0 119,5 I. Domestic Revenue 870,0 847,1 990,5 1.011,6 102,1 119 1. Tax Revenue 652,0 619,9 95,1 743,3 744,1 100,1 11,7 120 2. Non Tax Revenue 218,0 227,2 104,2 247,2 267,5 108,2 4,2 118 II. Grants 1,0 1,7 165,6 1,9 2,4 127,4 0,0 145 B. State Expenditure 1.000,8 937,4 93,7 1.126,1 1.053,5 93,5 16,6 112,4 I. Central Government Expenditure 691,5 628,8 90,9 781,5 708,7 90,7 11,2 113 1. Personnel Expenditure 133,7 127,7 95,5 162,7 147,7 90,8 2,3 116 2. Material Expenditure 85,5 80,7 94,4 112,6 94,6 84,1 1,5 117 3. Capital Expenditure 73,4 75,9 103,4 95,0 75,5 79,4 1,2 99 4. Interest Payments 109,6 93,8 85,6 105,7 88,3 83,6 1,4 94 5. Subsidies 158,1 138,1 87,3 201,3 214,1 106,4 3,4 155 6. Grants 0,2 0,1 28,8 7. Social Expenditure 77,9 73,8 94,7 71,2 68,4 96,1 1,1 93 8. Other Expenditure 53,3 38,9 73,0 32,9 20,0 60,8 0,3 51 II. Transfer to Region 309,3 308,6 99,8 344,6 344,7 100,0 5,4 112 C. Primary Balance ( 20,3) 5,2 ( 25,5) ( 28,1) 48,9 (173,9) 0,8 946 D. Overall Balance (A - B) (129,8) (88,6) 68,2 (133,7) (39,5) 29,5 (0,6) 44,5 % Deficit to GDP (2,4) (1,6) 65,7 (2,1) 28,1 (0,0) 38,0 E. Financing 129,8 86,7 86,6 64,7 77 I. Domestic Financing 142,6 128,1 89,9 133,9 71,0 74 II. Foreign Financing (12,7) (15,5) 122,2 (0,2) (8,4) 5.410,7 (0,1) 54 Surplus/(Deficit) Financing 24,0 47,1 0,7 197 State revenues exceeded expectations, but the state expenditures was under target due to overly-conservative stance by the expenditure committee in line ministries. Tax ratios continue to increase as the country made improvements in collecting the tax revenues. In particular, Land and building taxes and excise taxes have seen the most improvements in realizations. Realization of Revenues and Grant has exceeded its target by 2.2%, mainly supported by the realization of non-tax revenues (108%), while the tax revenue reach 100%. Realization of Central Government Expenditures at December 31th, 2010 reach Rp708,7 T (90.7% of revised budget) was nominally higher Rp63,3 T than the same period in 2009 about Rp645, 4 T (89.9% of revised budget). Capital expenditures related to infrastructure build out are also a major concern due to rainfall and land acquisition challenges, we have enacted several new laws in 2010 to tackle this problem however. Subsidies however surprised us on the upside, due to the payment of 2009 tax subsidy and additional food subsidy for affordable rice Fiscal Defisit realization for 2010 has reached Rp39,5 T or 0,6% of GDP. In order to finance the deficit, the government issued approximately Rp15,5 T of debt and about Rp 22 T comes from budget surplus account (SAL). The budget surplus account 2010 will be utilized for : (1) deficit financing for state budget APBN 2011, (2) payment of electricity subsidy shortfall of 2009, (3) saving in anticipation of electricity subsidy overrun risk for 2011. 13 Source: Ministry of Finance

14 2011 Fiscal Policy Target To achieve 2011 development target through:
Welfare improvement Democracy improvement Law enforcement. Strategy: Pro-Growth; through relaxed fiscal policy Pro-Job: through tax incentive to boost investment and export, and also increased infrastructure development expenditure; Pro-Poor: through well targeted subsidies, and social safety net programs; Pro-Environment: through better environment management. Budget deficit projection for 2011 is 1.8% of GDP, maintaining fiscal sustainability and expansionary fiscal policy. The direction of fiscal policy in 2011 will be oriented to the strategy in enhancing the welfare of the people, through four main objectives namely: Pro-Growth, increasing the rate of economic growth Pro-Job, create and expand employment Pro-Poor, improving the welfare of the people through sustainable programs of community welfare protection in favor of the poor Pro-Environment, through better environment management. In line with the direction of fiscal policy, the budget deficit in 2011 is projected around 1.8% of GDP, in order to maintain fiscal sustainability Source: Ministry of Finance

15 Overview of Government Policy for 2011
Taxation Continue tax administration reform agenda Explore tax potential through extensification (widening tax base) and intensification Increase the quality of tax inspection and investigation Strengthen custom and excise supervision Provide tax incentive Boost infrastructure development (roads, bridges, ports, electricity, disaster rehabilitation) Social security programs, such as health program (Jamkesnas), education (BOS), and society empowerment program (PNPM) to protect the poor household Remuneration in order to continue bureaucracy reform agenda Continued LPG conversion program Better targeted electricity subsidy Utilizing alternative energy Control subsidized fuel usage through close distribution system Provide subsidy for bio fuel Provide non-energy subsidies (food, fertilizer, seeds, credit interest program) Rely on domestic bond market to finance deficit Widening domestic and international investors base through financing instrument diversification Gradually eliminate external debt Utilize domestic financing sources (Investment Fund Account and assets management) Provide infrastructure financing, e.g. government investment, guarantee, and liquidity facilities Government Expenditure Subsidy We will highlight some of government policies 2011 in the areas of taxation, expenditure, subsidy and budget financing. In the area of taxation, MoF will continue tax administration reform agenda, strengthen custom and excise supervision, increase quality of tax inspection and investigation, and widening tax base through tax intensification and extensification. In the expenditure sides, the government will boost infrastructure development, continue social security program such as Jamkesmas, BOS and PNPM and widening bureaucractic reform. The government will continue kerosene conversion program to LPG, limit fossil use and utillize alternative energy, provide energy subsidy (bio-fuel subsidy) and non energy subsidy (food, fertilizer, seeds, credit interest program). The subsidy will also be more focused to the targetted user categories. In term of budget financing, the government will rely more on domestic financing, decrease exposure on external debt, widening domestic investor base, and providing infrastructure financing through government guarantee and liquidity facilities. Budget Financing Source: Ministry of Finance

16 State Budget 2011 2011 Items Budget A. State Revenue and Grants 1.104,9 I. Domestic Revenue 1.101,2 1. Tax Revenue 850,3 2. Non Tax Revenue 250,9 II. Grants 3,7 B. State Expenditure 1.229,6 I. Central Government Expenditure 836,6 1. Personnel Expenditure 180,8 2. Material Expenditure 137,8 3. Capital Expenditure 135,9 4. Interest Payments 115,2 5. Subsidies 187,6 6. Grants 0,8 7. Social Expenditure 63,2 8. Other Expenditure 15,3 II. Transfer to Region 393,0 C. Primary Balance ( 9,4) D. Overall Balance (A - B) (124,7) % Deficit to GDP (1,8) E. Financing 124,7 I. Domestic Financing 125,3 II. Foreign Financing (0,6) Surplus/(Deficit) Financing (0,0) Macroeconomic Asumption 2011 Gross Domestic Product (trillion Rp) 7.019,9 Economic growth rate (%) 6,4 Inflation rate (%) 5,3 Interest rate of SBI 3 Month (%) 6,5 Exchange rate (Rp/US$1) 9.250,0 Oil price (US$/barrel) 80,0 Oil production (MBCD) 0,970 2011 GDP GROWTH FORECAST EXPENDITURE Public Consumption: 5.3% - 5.5% Government Consumption: 6.3% - 6.5% The highlight of the state budget 2011 are as follow: Manageable deficit to be 1.8% of GDP. Lower expenditure in electricity and fuel subsidies. Increase transfer to region. An increase in infrastructure spending. The capital expenditure continues to increase in 2011 by 43.1% as compared to 2010. Higher tax revenue. For the state budget 2011, state revenue 2011 is expected to achieve Rp 1104,9 Trillion or an increase of 11.3%. Meanwhile, state expenditure is expected to achieve at Rp 1229,6 Trillion or an increase of 9.2%. Less reliance on external debt in the financing of the deficit. SECTORAL GROWTH TARGETS 2011 Processing industry: 4.4% - 4.6% Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries: 4.4% - 4.6% Trade, hotels and restaurants: 7.4% - 7.6% Mining and quarrying: 3.5% - 3.7% DEVELOPMENT TARGETS For 2011: Open unemployment rate: 7.0% Poverty rate: 11.5% % 16 Source: Ministry of Finance

17 Financing 2011

18 Debt Management Strategy 2010 - 2014
Fulfilling financing need through issuance of government securities and obtain government loans/ project financing; Optimizing debt portfolio structures to support fiscal sustainability; Developing debt instruments to obtain flexibility in choosing more cost- efficient and minimal risk instruments; Obtaining foreign loans to finance priority projects that provide favorable terms and conditions; Optimizing foreign loans to finance project priority and high quality project; Improving coordination with the monetary authorities and capital market authorities, to encourage financial deepening; Improving coordination and communication to enhance the efficiency of loans management and sovereign credit rating improvement Indonesia has a coherent debt management strategy where we continue to optimize domestic sources of financing through issuance of government securities and domestic loans Our current medium-term debt strategy ( ) was formally establish in 30 December 2010, containing general strategies, among others, include: Fulfilling financing need through issuance of government securities and obtaining foreign loans are only done when favorable terms and conditions can be achieved. We will also continue to encourage financial deepening through improving coordination with the monetary authorities and capital market authorities. Source: Ministry of Finance

19 Debt Ratios 2004 - 2010 Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP)
Interest Expenses to Revenue and Expenditure Ratio (%) Debt Service to GDP Ratio (%) Interest Expenses to Tax Revenue & Central Government Expenditure Ratio (%) Indonesia’s government debt is on track to reach 28.3 % of GDP in 2009 and 26,3 % of GDP in The figure is targeted to catch around 26% of GDP by end of 2011. This is also followed by the improvement of some debt indicators such as Indonesia's government debt service to GDP, as well as other debt indicators. We will continue to implement prudent strategy to maintain the debt metrics within a sustainable level. Notes: *) GDP as of End of Q3 2010 Central Government Expenditure = Total Expenditure minus Transfer to Regions Debt Service = Interest Payment + Principal Source: Ministry of Finance 19 19

20 Financing 2011 IDR Trillion 2011 Budget % of GDP Total Revenue & Grants 1.104,9 15,7% Of which Tax Revenue 850,3 12,1% Non Tax Revenue 254,6 3,6% Expenditure 1.229,6 17,5% Interest payment 115,2 1,6% Subsidy 187,6 2,7% Primary Balance (9,4) (0,1%) Overall Balance (deficit) (124,7) (1,8%) Financing 124,7 1,8% Non Debt (2,4) 0,0% Debt 127,1 Govt Securities (Net) 126,7 Domestic Official Borrowing 1,0 External Official Borrowing (Net) (0,6) Disbursement 47,2 0,7% Program Loan 19,8 0,3% Project Loan 27,4 0,4% Repayment (47,8) (0,7%) Assumptions: GDP (trillion) 7.019,9 Growth (%) 6,4 Inflation (%) 5,3 3-mo SBI (% avg) 6,5 RP 1 USD (avg) 9,250 Oil Price (USD 1 barrel) 80 Oil Lifting (MBCD) 0,970 IDR Billion Budget Deficit 2011 ( ,5) Amortization ( ,7) External Loan (47.817,7) Govt Securities (incl Buyback) (74.000,0) Two Step Loan (11.724,8) Financing Needs ( ,0) Financing Sources ,0 Non Debt (2.387,9) Debt (Gross) ,9 Govt Securities ,9 Program Loan 19.812,7 Project Loan 39.120,4 Domestic Loan 1.000,0 With the target deficit of IDR 124,7 trillion or 1,8% of GDP, the main financing source comes from debt issuance amounting to IDR127.1trillion, of which IDR 126,7 trillion comes from net issuance of government securities, negative IDR 0,6 trillion comes from net official external loan and IDR1 trillion from domestic loan. The gross issuance of government securities in 2011, will be IDR 200,6 trillion, which is mainly raised in the domestic market. Currently, our indicative target for global bond issuance (global bond, sukuk, samurai) is approximately 16% from the total issuance, however we have flexibility in increasing the issuance up to 25%, if the domestic market is in unfavorable conditions. Source: Ministry of Finance

21 5. Conclusion

22 Conclusion Sustained economic growth
Q3 economic growth was 5.8%, for % growth projected with manageable budget deficit In 2011 the economy will be even stronger, and projected to grow by 6.4%, Substantial improvements are evident in economic fundamentals In the year of 2010, the realization of the State Budget was as follow: Revenue and Grant achieved %, driven by high non-tax revenue collection which was 108%. Tax revenue realization was 100.1% Central Government Expenditure up to December 2010 was IDR trilion (90.7%), it was nominally higher than 2009 realization at the same periode which was IDR645.4 T (89.9%) 2010 deficit was 0.6%, lower than stated on 2010 Revised Budget at 2.1% Prudent fiscal management with strong commitment to fiscal consolidation Reduction in Debt-to-GDP ratio Diversification of Government Debt Reduction in foreign loan exposure The 2011 budget is directed to achieve better prosperity through Pro-Growth, Pro-Job, Pro-Poor, Pro-Environment With strong macroeconomic fundamental and sustainable state budget, we are confident on achieving the 2011 economic and fiscal targets In summary, Indonesia’s economic resiliency has been tested and proven in the financial crisis. The result is with this track record, Indonesia continues to deliver strong and stable economic growth momentum. We have achieved 5.8% growth in Q despite of the challenging global conditions. This year we expect the growth rate to be 6.0%. Next year we expect the growth 6.4% with a manageable budget deficit. The revenue and grant realization for 2010 was exceed expectation, while government expenditure below the target. The Government and Bank Indonesia have coordinated to support the banking system and capital markets, ensure foreign exchange stability and promote economic growth and enhance competitiveness. The strong economic fundamentals and economic growth achievements for the 2010 fiscal year shows that we are on the right trajectory to alleviate poverty and unemployment and to improve development quality. With strong macroeconomic fundamental and sustainable state budget, we are confident on achieving the 2011 economic and fiscal targets

23 Thank You

24 Update Ekonomi Indonesia dan Kebijakan Fiskal dalam
Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Disampaikan Dr. Anny Ratnawati Wakil Menteri Keuangan RI di Institut Teknologi Bandung 19 Februari 2011

25 Perubahan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia (%)
Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia 2010 diproyeksikan mencapai 5% namun sedikit menurun di 2011 menjadi 4,4%. Perubahan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia (%) Laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia masih dipimpim oleh negara-negara Emerging Market Secara umum perkembangan global diperkirakan masih akan stabil hingga tahun 2012, namun masih ada beberapa tatangan dari ketidakpastian pemulihan krisis Eropa dan naiknya harga komoditas primer dunia. Sumber: WEO, Januari 2011

26 Realisasi Pertumbuhan PDB 2010 mencapai 6,1%, kembali pada kondisi sebelum terjadinya krisis global tahun Hal ini didukung terutama oleh meningkatnya pertumbuhan investasi dan ekspor Sumber: BPS

27 Industri pengolahan menunjukkan kinerja yang positif tumbuh 4,5%, Sektor telekomunikasi masih tetap tumbuh double digit, namun demikian Sektor Pertanian masih memerlukan perhatian lebih karena tumbuh terendah sejak 2005, Struktur PDB Sektoral Pertumbuhan PDB 2010 didukung oleh peningkatan pertumbuhan pada sektor industri, sektor perdagangan, dan sektor jasa. Ketiga sektor ini memberikan kontribusi (share to growth) terbesar terhadap pertumbuhan PDB, yaitu sekitar 48% Sektor transportasi dan komunikasi merupakan sektor dengan pertumbuhan tertinggi selama 10 tahun terakhir Berdasarkan strukturnya, sektor industri mengalami penurunan sedangkan sektor konstruksi, sektor perdagangan, dan sektor transportasi mengalami peningkatan

28 Pertumbuhan SEKTOR TRADEABLE perlu terus ditingkatkan
Pertumbuhan Sektor Pertanian Pertumbuhan Sektor Industri Pertumbuhan Sektor Pertambangan Di tahun 2011 Sektor Pertanian akan tumbuh 3,8%, sektor pertambangan 3,6%, dan sektor Industri Pengolahan 4,5%. Sektor Industri harus dipacu lagi (revitalisasi) mengingat sektor ini dapat tumbuh double digit sebelum krisis 97/98. Untuk mendukungnya, perbaikan infrastruktur mutlak diperlukan. Walaupun demikian, sektor tradeable akan terus tumbuh di tahun Di tahun 2011 Sektor Pertanian akan tumbuh 3,8%, sektor pertambangan 3,6%, dan sektor Industri Pengolahan 4,5%. Namun, pertumbuhan sektor Industri harus dipacu lagi (revitalisasi) mengingat sektor ini dapat tumbuh double digit sebelum krisis 97/98. Untuk mendukungnya, perbaikan infrastruktur mutlak diperlukan. 28

29 Investasi PMA menjadi andalan
29 Realisasi penanaman modal terus mengalami peningkatan. Pada triwulan III 2010 pertumbuhan tahunan investasi (data BKPM) mencapai 24.1%, diman investasi domestik mengalami kenaikan sebesar 59,6%, dan investasi asing mengalami pertumbuhan sebesar 13,6%. Pada tiga triwulan pertama 2010 total investasi mencapai 149,6 triliun rupiah. Dengan demkian, target tahun 2010 ini sudah pasti terpenuhi. Total 42,1 50,8 160,3 56,7 50,7 200,3 *) *) Sumber: BKPM (angka sementara), Realisasi total PMA dan PMDN tahun 2010 mencapai Rp. 200,3 triliun atau sebesar 125, 1 persen dari target tahun 2010 sebesar Rp.160,3 Triliun, 29

30 Kinerja Ekspor Meningkat
Kinerja ekspor telah pulih setelah krisis 2009 dan nilai ekspor pada tahun (Jan-Nov) sebesar US$ 140,7 miliar, melebihi pencapaian tahun 2008. Impor meningkat seiring dengan peningkatan investasi (PMTB) sebesar 33,4% selama Januari-September 2010. Namun demikian, neraca perdagangan pada tahun 2010 (Jan-Nov) sebesar US$ 18,1 miliar, melebihi 2008 Sumber: BPS 30 30

31 Perkembangan pasar minyak mentah dunia yang cenderung meningkat dan berfluktuasi …
Faktor Permintaan : proses pemulihan ekonomi dunia, anomali iklim dunia, musim dingin di AS, Eropa dan Australia, dan kondisi geopolitik. Faktor Penawaran: krisis geopolitik dan anomali iklim yang ekstrim telah mengganggu proses produksi Gap harga BBM vs Harga Keekonomian meningkat Future Price Minyak cenderung naik

32 Kenaikan harga minyak cenderung diikuti dengan lonjakkan harga pangan dunia (saat ini sudah di posisi tertinggi dan melampaui kondisi tahun 2008) FAO Food Prices Index yang dihitung dari rata-rata tertimbang 55 jenis komoditas perdagangan internasional Sumber: Bloomberg

33 Kenaikan harga komoditas pangan dunia turut memicu kenaikan inflasi di domestik…
Peningkatan harga komoditas bahan pangan internasional mempengaruhi naiknya harga komoditas bahan pangan domestik, terutama beras, minyak goreng dan kedelai. Meningkatnya harga minyak dunia mendorong beberapa negara menerapkan kebijakan peralihan ke energi alternatif seperti biofuel sehingga menimbulkan tekanan ganda terhadap permintaan komoditas bahan pangan seperti jagung dan kedelai. Berdasarkan pengalaman pada tahun 2008, kenaikan harga minyak mendorong peningkatan hampir seluruh harga komoditas bahan pangan, baik internasional maupun domestik. Sumber: Bloomberg

34 Inflasi di Negara Maju & China
Laju inflasi secara global menjadi meningkat…. Inflasi di ASEAN Inflasi di Negara Maju & China Beberapa negara telah mengambil langkah-langkah responsif, baik melalui kebijakan moneter maupun kebijakan fiskal. Masalah ketahanan pangan dunia menjadi isu yang paling krusial saat ini. Sebagian negara produsen pangan telah mengurangi ekspornya guna menjaga pasokan dalam negeri. Sumber: CEIC

35 Kenaikan harga minyak dan perubahan iklim turut mendorong naiknya Tingkat Inflasi Indonesia
Inflasi Bulanan dan Tahunan (%) Kenaikan inflasi mulai pertengahan terutama didorong oleh kenaikan harga bahan makanan karena cuaca ekstrim. Inflasi 2010 mencapai 6,96%. Kebijakan antisipasi Pemerintah diarahkan untuk menstabilkan harga-harga dengan memperlancar distribusi dan intervensi APBN (operasi pasar, pasar murah, raskin, dan kebijakan fiskal lainnya). Inflasi 2011 diperkirakan 1% + 5% Inflasi volatile food masih tinggi mencapai 18,25% (yoy). Sumber: BPS

36 Bursa saham cenderung melemah, namun Rupiah terapresiasi terhadap dolar AS…
Sumber: Bloomberg

37 Suku Bunga dipertahankan pada tingkat yang Competitive dan Nilai tukar Rupiah cenderung menguat
Rata–rata suku bunga SBI 3 bulan tahun 2011 diperkirakan sebesar 6,5% Penguatan Nilai Tukar Rupiah didukung oleh kenaikan cadangan devisa dan capital inflow 37

38 Pembangunan Nasional diarahkan Untuk Perbaikan Kesejahteraan Masyarakat
Peningkatan kesejahteraan terlihat dari turunnya tingkat pengangguran dari 9,1% di 2007 menjadi 7,4% di 2010 , angka kemiskinan menurun dari 16,6% menjadi sekitar 13% di 2010, dan Pendapatan Per Kapita meningkat dari USD di 2007 menjadi USD di 2009, dan diperkirakan di kisaran USD 3000 di 2010. Tingkat pengangguran diperkirakan akan turun ke 7% dan Tingkat kemiskinan turun ke 11,5 - 12,5% pada tahun 2011. Kinerja ekonomi yang membaik memberi dampak positif terhadap kesejahteraan rakyat: Tingkat pengangguran turun dari 7,9% di menjadi 7,14% di Angka ini jauh di bawah 11,2% pada tahun 2005. Tingkat kemiskinan berhasil diturunkan dari 14,2% di 2009, menjadi 13,3% di 2010. 38

39 Tingkat Pengangguran di Provinsi Menurun
7,14 Pada tahun 2010 tingkat pengangguran di provinsi menurun dibanding tahun sebelumnya. Beberapa provinsi masih memiliki tingkat pengangguran yang jauh diatas rata-rata nasional (Jakarta, Banten, Kaltim, Sulsel, dan Maluku). 39

40 Pemerataan Pendapatan Meningkat
Koefisien GINI Rasio Sumber: BPS Hasil pembangunan dapat dirasakan oleh masyarakat dengan lebih merata. Hal ini terlihat dari koefisien Gini Rasio yang terus mengalami penurunan sejak tahun 2008. Pada tahun 2010 Gini Rasio turun ke dari di tahun 2009, yang menunjukkan semakin meratanya pendapatan masyarakat. 40

41 Pemeliharaan Kesejahteraan di Daerah
13,3% Tingkat kemiskinan di seluruh propinsi pun mengalami penurunan pada tahun Dalam periode kemiskinan di seluruh provinsi berada dalam trend yang menurun. Namun, tingkat kemiskinan di beberapa propinsi masih berada diatas tingkat kemiskinan nasional. Kita harus mengurangi kemiskinan secara lebih merata. 41

42 Kebijakan Belanja Infrastruktur Tahun 2011
Sasaran: Mendukung ketahanan pangan nasional, Meningkatkan keterhubungan antarwilayah, Memperkuat virtual domestic interconnectivity, Mengurangi backlog penyediaan perumahan menjadi 5,23 juta, Meningkatkan ketahanan energi nasional, Meningkatkan ketersediaan air baku dan pengendalian banjir. Mendukung ketahanan pangan nasional dengan indikator meningkat & optimalnya layanan irigasi & rawa seluas 3,45jt Ha melalui peningkatan dan rehabilitasi jaringan irigasi masing-masing 56rb Ha & 161rb Ha Meningkatkan keterhubungan antarwilayah (domestic connectivity) melalui peningkatan kapasitas jalan sepanjang km pd lintas utama Memperkuat virtual domestic interconnectivity melalui penyediaan jasa akses telekomunikasi di desa, internet di kecamatan dg tingkat pencapaian 20%, Regional Internet Exchange di 10 kota, Community Access Point di 222 kec Mengurangi backlog penyediaan perumahan menjadi 5,23jt melalui penyediaan rusunawa sebanyak 170 twinblock serta fasilitasi dan stimulasi prasarana, sarana, dan utilitas kawasan perumahan sebanyak unit Meningkatkan ketahanan energi nasional melalui peningkatan rasio elektrifikasi menjadi 69,5% dan rasio desa berlistrik menjadi 95%, serta pemanfaatan energi terbarukan dalam bauran energi nasional sebesar 10,23% Meningkatkan ketersediaan air baku dengan kapasitas 5,89m3/detik dan pengendalian banjir melalui penanganan Das Bengawan Solo dan Banjir Kanal Timur 42

43 Kebijakan Anggaran Pendidikan Tahun 2011
Arah Kebijakan: Meningkatkan akses pendidikan yang berkualitas, terjangkau, relevan, dan efisien menuju kesejahteraan rakyat, kemandirian, keluhuran budi pekerti, karakter bangsa yang kuat, serta kewirausahaan. Sasaran: Meningkatnya rata-rata lama sekolah penduduk berusia 15 tahun ke atas menjadi 7,75 tahun. Menurunnya angka buta aksara penduduk berusia 15 tahun ke atas menjadi 5,17 persen. Meningkatnya APM dan APK. Menurunnya disparitas partisipasi dan kualitas pelayanan pendidikan antarwilayah, gender, dan sosial ekonomi, serta antarsatuan pendidikan yang diselenggarakan oleh pemerintah dan masyarakat. Pemerintah pusat 20,2 248,9 Transfer ke daerah 8,3 158, 90,7 90,6 7 4,4 3, 43

44 Kebijakan Kesehatan Tahun 2011
Arah Kebijakan: Pelaksanaan program kesehatan preventif terpadu al. pemberian imunisasi dasar, penyediaan akses sumber air bersih dan akses terhadap sanitasi dasar berkualitas, penurunan tingkat kematian ibu, serta tingkat kematian bayi; Revitalisasi program KB melalui peningkatan kualitas dan jangkauan layanan KB; Peningkatan sarana kesehatan al.penyediaan dan peningkatan kualitas layanan rumah sakit berakreditasi internasional; Peningkatan ketersediaan, dan keterjangkauan obat, terutama obat esensial generik; dan Penerapan asuransi kesehatan nasional untuk masyarakat miskin dan diperluas secara bertahap untuk seluruh penduduk (universal coverage). Sasaran 2011 Ketersediaan Obat 85% Minimal 2 kota memiliki RS bertaraf internasional Jangkauan layanan KB di klinik Menambah jumlah Puskesmas menjadi 8.608 6,3 5,3 1,0

45 Program Bantuan dan Perlindungan Sosial Tahun 2011
Jamkesmas: Meningkatkan akses dan mutu layanan kesehatan seluruh penduduk miskin dan hampir miskin. Sasaran 76,4 juta jiwa BOS: Meringankan beban masyarakat atas biaya pendidikan agar semua siswa memperoleh layanan pendidikan dasar yang bermutu sampai tamat. Sasaran: Siswa SD/SMP penerima BOS (dialokasikan melalui Transfer ke Daerah= 37,9 juta siswa; Siswa MI/MTs penerima BOS = 5,4 juta siswa Bidang Pendidikan: Melanjutkan bantuan operasional sekolah (BOS) untuk meringankan beban masyarakat atas biaya pendidikan agar semua siswa memperoleh layanan pendidikan dasar yang bermutu sampai tamat. Sasaran: Siswa SD/SMP penerima BOS = 37,5 juta siswa; Siswa MI/MTs penerima BOS = 6,3 juta siswa Bidang kesehatan Melanjutkan program jaminan kesehatan masyarakat (Jamkesmas) untuk meningkatkan akses dan mutu layanan kesehatan seluruh penduduk miskin dan hampir miskin, dengan sasaran 76,4 juta jiwa Program pemberdayaan masyarakat: Melanjutkan program nasional pemberdayaan masyarakat (PNPM ) dengan tujuan untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan dan kesempatan kerja masyarakat miskin secara mandiri. Sasaran: PNPM perdesaan: kecamatan PNPM Perkotaan kecamatan PNPM : Tujuan: Meningkatkan kesejahteraan dan kesempatan kerja masyarakat miskin secara mandiri. Sasaran: PNPM perdesaan: kec; PNPM Perkotaan kec. 45

46 Kebijakan Subsidi Energi Tahun 2011
KEBIJAKAN SUBSIDI BBM Optimalisasi program konversi minyak tanah ke LPG, Pengendalian penggunaan BBM bersubsidi melalui sistem distribusi tertutup untuk menjaga alokasi distribusi BBM bersubsidi 38,6 juta Kl, Menginflentasikan langkah-langkah penghematan konsumsi BBM bersubsidi agar tepat sasaran, menjaga stabilisasi harga, dan efisiensi energi yang tidak dapat diperbaharui Peningkatan pemanfaatan energi alternatif seperti bahan bakar nabati. KEBIJAKAN SUBSIDI LISTRIK Tidak ada kenaikan TDL Dukungan investasi PT PLN untuk proyek MW Perbaikan Energi Input dari Gas dan Batubara untuk pasokan Pembangkit Efisiensi dilakukan oleh PLN (Losses jaringan, depresiasi, operasional) 46

47 Pengelolaan APBN yang Sustainabel untuk mendukung Program Pembangunan Nasional
Memprioritaskan penerbitan SBN Rupiah di pasar domestik; Melakukan diversifikasi instrumen utang untuk memperluas basis investor domestik dan internasional; Mengurangi pinjaman luar negeri melalui kebijakan tambahan neto pinjaman luar negeri yang negatif, yang didukung pengadaan pinjaman luar negeri yang selektif dengan term & conditions yang menguntungkan serta tanpa agenda politik; Menjaga komposisi portofolio utang dengan denominasi valuta asing dibawah 50% dari total utang

48 TERIMA KASIH


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