Presentasi sedang didownload. Silahkan tunggu

Presentasi sedang didownload. Silahkan tunggu

Ekonomimakro Lanjutan

Presentasi serupa


Presentasi berjudul: "Ekonomimakro Lanjutan"— Transcript presentasi:

1 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Medan, 2006 Introduction to Macroeconomics MACRO Dipersiapkan oleh: Dr. Dede Ruslan,M.Si Medan Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

2 Reference: Blanchard,O.,2003,“Macroeconomic”, Third edition, International edition Dornbush,R.,Fischer,S and Startz, R., 2001,“Macroeconomics”, 8th edition, New York: McGraw-Hill. Mankiw,N.Gregory.,2002,”Macroeco-nomics”, 5nd edition, New York : Worth

3 TUJUAN PEMBELAJARAN Menjelaskan Konsep, Tujuan dan Isu-Isu Penting yang berkembang dalam Konsep Ilmu Ekonomi Makro. Menjelaskan dan mempergunakan berbagai peralatan analisis makroekonomi Menjelaskan berbagai konsep utama dalam makroekonomi (GDP, CPI, Unemployment Rate) dan berbagai pengukurannya Menganalisis Business Cycles

4 Overview of Economics Ilmu Ekonomi adalah ilmu yang mempelajari perilaku manusia di dalam memenuhi kebutuhannya yang relatif tidak terbatas dengan menggunakan sumber daya yang terbatas dan masing-masing sumber daya mempunyai alternatif penggunaan (opportunity cost). Ilmu economi sangat terkait dengan optimisasi penggunaan sumber daya untuk memenuhi penyelesaian masalah antara yang tersedia dengan yang diminta.

5 Economics Has Two Main Branches:
MICROECONOMICS: Ilmu ekonomi yang menganalisis berbagai pilihan yang dilakukan oleh individu dalam suatu perekonomian dengan penekanan pada bagaimana harga-harga ditentukan dan bagaimaan harga-harga tersebut mempengaruhi keputusannya. MACROECONOMICS: Ilmu ekonomi yang menganalisis secara keseluruhan atas kinerja perekonomian secara aggregate, seperti total produksi, tingkat harga, tingkat inflasi, penganguran, trade balance, and rate of growth.

6 Positive vs. Normative Analysis
Positive analysis: Ilmu Ekonomi mencoba untuk menggambarkan ekonomi secara “objective” . Normative analysis : Ilmu Ekonomi mempertimbangkan berbagai alternatif pilihan yang harus dipilih yang didalamnya mengandung unsur judgement (opini) yang tentunya tergantung dari sistem prilaku yang ada. Most economists concern themselves with both.

7 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Medan, 2006 Important issues in macroeconomics Mengapa biaya hidup ( cost of living ) mengalami peningkatan? Mengapa jutaan orang mengganggur, bahkan ketika perekonomian dalam kondisi booming? Mengapa ada resesi ekonomi? Dapatkah pemerintah melakukan sesuatu untuk menghambat resesi? Should it?? Apakah government budget deficit? Bagaimana hal tersebut mempengaruhi perekonomian? Mengapa Indonesia pada era Orde Baru selalu mengalami deficit transaksi berjalan? Mengapa beberapa negara berkembang miskin? Kebijakan apa yang dapat menolong mereka tumbuh dan keluar dari kemiskinan? This slide and the next contain a list of some topical issues that macro can help students understand. Feel free to substitute others as new issues emerge. Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

8 Macroeconomics Makroekonomi dipandang sebagai tingkah laku perekonomian secara keseluruhan termasuk boom dan resesi, total output barang dan jasa, dan pertumbuhan output, tingkat inflasi dan pengangguran, neraca pembayaran, dan nilai tukar. Makroekonorni berhubungan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang maupun fluktuasi jangka pendek yang berfluktuasi dalam siklus bisnis.

9 Macroeconomics Makroekonomi terfokus pada tingkah laku perekonomian dan kebijakan yang mempengaruhi konsumsi dan investasi, mata uang dan neraca perdagangan, penyebab perubahan tingkat upah dan harga, kebijakan moneter dan fiskal, persediaan uang, anggaran nasional, suku bunga, dan utang nasional. Secara ringkas makroekonomi berhubungan dengan pokok dan masalah perekonornian utama yang esensinya terletak pada interaksi antara barang, tenaga kerja, dan pasar asset dari perekonomian serta interaksi perdagangan antar perekonomian nasionaL

10 Variable-variabel utama dalam macroeconomic Output/Aggregat Output
The Issues and Approach of Macroeconomics Variable-variabel utama dalam macroeconomic Output/Aggregat Output Unemployment Inflation Three measures of macroeconomic analysis Unemployment rate Inflation rate

11 The Issues and Approach of Macroeconomics
Model makroekonomi dalam jangka amat panjang terkait dengan teori pertumbuhan yang terfokus pada pertumbuhan kapasitas produksi. Model makroekonomi dalam jangka panjang yang memperlakukan kapasitas produksi sebagai sesuatu yang given, dimana kapasitas produksi menentukan tingkat harga dan inflasi. Model makroekonomi dalam jangka pendek terkait dengan kebijakan makroekonomi.

12 The Issues and Approach of Macroeconomics
Tingkah laku jangka amat panjang adalah subjek dari teori pertumbuhan dimana akumalasi input dapat meningkatkan standard hidup. Dalam jangka panjang, tingkat output ditentukan oleh sisi penawaran yaitu kapasitas produksi perekonomian, dan tingkat harga ditentukan oleh tingkat permintaan relatif terhadap output yang dihasilkan dalam perekonomian. Dalam jangka panjang interaksi antara tingkat output dan tingkat harga digambarkan dalam kurva Agregat Supply dan Agregat Demand.

13 The Issues and Approach of Macroeconomics
Aggregat Supply Curve menggambarkan kuantitas output perusahaan yang akan ditawarkan untuk setiap tingkat harga tertentu. Bentuk Kurva AS : Jangka panjang berbentuk vertikal, yang berimplikasi bahwa output ditentukan hanya oleh AS itu sendiri dan tingkat harga ditentukan oleh AS dan AD. Jangka pendek berbentuk horizontal (datar) yang berimplikasi bahwa output ditentukan hanya oleh AD dan harga tidak terpengaruh oleh perubahan output. Jangka menengah berbentuk miring keatas (slope positif) yang berimplikasi bahwa output akan mengalami transisi antara jangka pendek ke jangka panjang, sehingga kurva AS memiliki tingkat kemiringan antara horizontal dan vertikal dan harga akan menyesuaikan diri cukup lambat.

14 The Issues and Approach of Macroeconomics
AD2 AD1 Y P LRAS P2 P1

15 The Issues and Approach of Macroeconomics
AD2 AD1 Y P SRAS Y2 Y1

16 The Issues and Approach of Macroeconomics
AS Y P AD Yo

17 Konsep-konsep Pendapatan Nasional(Data Makroekonomi)
Mengukur Aktivitas Ekonomi secara aggregate ? National income and product accounts (NIPA) Ukuran terbaik dari kinerja perekonomian secara menyeluruh (aggregate output ) dalam national income adalalah gross domestic product, GDP (Produk Domestik Bruto,PDB). Tingkat pertumbuhan dari perekonomian adalah tingkat dimana PDB mengalami peningkatan. Apa yang menyebabkan PDB tumbuh? Tersedianya sejumlah sumber daya (K,L,H,A)sejalan dengan perubahan perekonomian. Perubahan efisiensi penggunaan faktor produksi (peningkatan produktivitas)

18 Output Growth in East Asian Countries, 1990 - 1999
(in percent) Hong Kong Singapore Korea Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand China

19 PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO ATAS DASAR HARGA KONSTAN 1993
MENURUT LAPANGAN USAHA TAHUN (Milyar Rupiah)  No. Lapangan Usaha 1999 2000 2001 2002 *) 2003 **) 1 Pertanian, Peternakan, Kehutanan & Perikanan  64,985.3 66,208.9 67,318.5 68,669.7 70,374.4 2 Pertambangan & Penggalian 36,865.8 38,896.4 39,401.3 40,404.8 40,590.8 3 Industri Pengolahan 99,058.5 104,986.9 108,272.3 111,982.5 115,900.7 4 Listrik, Gas, & Air Bersih 6,112.9 6,574.8 7,111.9 7,538.4 8,052.2 5 Bangunan 22,035.6 23,278.7 24,308.2 25,488.4 27,196.2 6 Perdagangan, Hotel & Restoran 60,093.7 63,498.3 65,824.6 68,333.3 70,891.3 7 Pengangkutan & Komunikasi 26,772.1 29,072.1 31,338.9 33,855.1 37,475.5 8 Keuangan, Persewaan & Jasa Perusahaan 26,244.6 27,449.4 28,932.3 30,590.8 32,512.5 9 Jasa-Jasa 37,184.0 38,051.5 39,245.4 40,080.1 41,459.9 Produk Domestik Bruto 379,352.5 398,016.9 411,753.5 426,942.9 444,453.5 Produk Domestik Bruto tanpa Migas 345,418.5 363,758.7 379,019.6 394,530.8 412,696.7 Sumber :   BPS, Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia Tahun 2003 (data diolah dalam Milyar Rupiah) Catatan :  *)   Angka Sementara                  **)   Angka Sangat Sementara

20

21

22

23 Variabel-Variabel Utama Ekonomi Makro
Apakah variable-variabel utama dalam macroeconomic? Output, Unemployment Inflation Bagaimanakah variabel tsb berhubungan? Inflation, output dan Unemployment berhu-bungan melalui siklus bisnis (business cycle). Siklus bisnis adalah suatu pola konjuntur yang berfluktuasi dari ekspansi (pemulihan) dan kontraksi (resesi) dalam aktivitas perekonomian di sekitar jalur dari trend pertumbuhan.

24 Siklus bisnis Jalur trend Dari PDB riil

25 Siklus bisnis Pada siklus boom, aktivitas perekonomian relatif tinggi daripada trend. Pada siklus depresi, aktivitas perekonomian mencapai titik bawah. Inflasi, pertumbuhan dan pengangguran memiliki pola siklus. Jalur trend dari PDB adalah jalur dimana PDB akan dihasilkan jika faktor produksi digunakan secara penuh (full employment). Namun faktor produksi tsb tidak selalu dalam keadaan terpakai penuh.

26 Siklus bisnis Output tidak selalu berada pada tingkat trend-nya, yaitu tingkat dimana perekonomian dalam keadaan full employment untuk faktor-faktor produksi. Sebaliknya, output berfluktuasi di sekitar tingkat trend-nya. Selama ekspansi (atau pemulihan) penggunaan faktor produksi meningkat. Output dapat meningkat di atas trend-nya karena orang-orang bekerja lembur dan mesin-mesin digunakan lebih lama. Sebaliknya, pada masa resesi pengangguran meningkat dan output yang dihasilkan di bawah yang seharusnya dapat dicapai dengan sumber daya dan teknologi yang ada.

27 Siklus bisnis Deviasi (penyimpangan) output dari garis trend-nya disebut kesenjangan output (output gap). Output gap mengukur kesenjangan antara output aktual yang dihasilkan dengan output yang seharusnya dapat dihasilkan jika perekonomian berada dalam kondisi full employment. Kondisi output full employment disebut juga output potensial. Output gap = output potensial - output aktual.

28 Siklus bisnis Meningkatnya inflasi berhubungan sebaliknya dengan output gap. Kebijakan AD yang ekspansif cenderung menyebabkan inflasi, kecuali pada saat perekonomian sedang mengalami tingkat pengangguran yang tinggi. Rendahnya AD yang berlarut-larut cenderung mengurangi inflasi.

29 Siklus bisnis

30 GDP: Production and Income
Terdapat tiga cara untuk mendefinisikan GDP: 1) Final good 2) Value added 3) Income GDP adalah nilai akhir dari barang-barang dan jasa yang diproduksi dalam perekonomian selama periode waktu tertentu. Difference between a final good and an intermediary good Contoh: Simple economy, produce only cars: 10 cars, worth $21 each GDP = $ 210

31 GDP: Production and Income
GDP: The final goods approach Firm 1: Steel Company Revenues from sales $100 Expenses (wages) $80 Profit $20 Firm 2: Car Company Revenues from sales $210 Expenses $170 Wages $70 Steel purchases $100 Profit $40 What is GDP? $310 or $210

32 GDP: Production and Income
Defining GDP: Final goods approach Jawaban: $210 Jika kedua perusahaan dijumlahkan, yaitu : ($100 + $210),maka $100 dalam steel dihitung dua kali Yang dihitung hanya final good (cars), dimana didalamnya termasuk intermediate good (steel)

33 GDP: Production and Income
GDP adalah jumlah dari nilai tambah didalam perekonomian selama periode waktu tertentu. Nilai Tambah dari sebuah perusahaan sama dengan nilai produksi (output) perusahaan itu dikurangi dengan nilai barang setengah jadi yan perusahaan beli) Value added = Value of firm’s production - Value of intermediary goods Atas dasar contoh “ firm produces steel lainnya” . (10 cars). For each car, you need to buy for $ 10 steel ($100 in total) Value added: Firm 1 (steel): $ 100 + Firm 2 (cars): $ $ 100 = $ 110 Sum = $ 210

34 = value of production - value of intermediate goods
GDP: Production and Income GDP: (2) Value added approach Value added = value of production - value of intermediate goods Two Firm Example (as before) Steel No intermediate goods Value added = $100 Total value added: $210 Cars Intermediate goods (steel) = $100 Value added = $210 - $100 = $110

35 GDP: Production and Income
GDP adalah jumlah dari pendapatan (incomes) didalam perekonomian selama periode waktu tertentu. Pendapatan (Revenues) setelah pembayar- an atas intermediate goods Pembayaran indirect taxes (sales taxes) Pembayaran pekerja (labor income) Pembayaran sewa modal (capital income)

36 GDP: Production and Income
GDP: (3) Income side Firm 1 (steel) Bayar pekerja : $ 80 $ Laba (profit) : $ 20 Firm 2 (car) buys steel : $ 100 $ Bayar pekerja : $ 70 profit : $ 40 $ 210

37 GDP: Production and Income
GDP: (3) Income side Steel income Labor = $80 Capital = $20 $100 Car income Labor = $70 Capital = $40 $110 Compared to:

38 Aggregate Output or Gross Domestic Product
Defining GDP – A Summary Output Approach = Income Approach Final goods & value added = sum of indirect taxes + labor income + capital income Recall GDP = the value of final goods and services produced Value is the price of the final good Therefore, GDP = Price x Quantity of final goods produced Higher prices bias the GDP measurement of production upward over time.

39 Total expenditure on domestically - produced final goods and services
Aggregate Output or Gross Domestic Product Two definitions: Total expenditure on domestically - produced final goods and services Total income earned by domestically - located factors of production Why expenditure = income In every transaction, the buyer’s expenditure becomes the seller’s income. Thus, the sum of all expenditure equals the sum of all income.

40 Goods & Services bought
The Circular-Flow Diagram Spending Revenue Market for Goods and Services Goods & Services sold Goods & Services bought Firms Households Wages, rent, and profit Income Labor, land, and capital Inputs for production Market for Factors of Production

41 Saving and Investment in the Circular Flow
Firms Income Capital Market Consumption Households Saving

42 Circular Flow in a Closed Economy
Govt Expend Firms Investment Cap. Market Income Gov’t Consumption Saving Households Taxes

43 Circular Flow in an Open Economy
Exports Govt Expend Firms Invest ROW Cap Mkt Income Gov’t Consump Saving Imports Households Taxes

44 Nominal & Real GDP Ilustrasi dengan satu barang
Year Quantity of Cars Price of Cars Nominal GDP(% increase) $10, $100,000 (--) $12, $144, (44%) $13, $169, (17.4%) Question Did the real output of cars increase 44% from 1991 to 1992? No, car output increased by 2, which is 20%

45 Aggregate Output GDP growth Real GDP in constant (1992) prices
Car Production x 1992 Prices x $12,000 = $120,000 x $12,000 = $144,000 (20% increase) x $12,000 = $156,000 ( 8% increase) Note: Nominal 1992 GDP = Real 1992 GDP GDP growth

46 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 The Unemployment Rate Tingkat Penganguran adalah jumlah penduduk 15+ yang mencari kerja dibagi dengan angkatan kerja Angkatan kerja adalah penduduk 15+ yang bekerja ditambah dengan yang tidak bekerja (menganggur) Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

47 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 Counting the Unemployed 1998 # employed  #unemployed  Unemp rate  Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

48 Ketenagakerjaan Indonesia

49 Ketenagakerjaan Indonesia

50 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 Unemployment and Economic Activity Okun’s Law High output growth -- reduces unemployment Low output growth -- increases unemployment Economic Policy Implications of Okun’s Law If unemployment is too high -- high growth policy must be pursued to reduce it If unemployment is too low -- low growth policy is required Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

51 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Change in the U.S. Unemployment Rate versus U.S. GDP Growth Medan, 2006 Okun’s Law Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

52 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 Tingkat Inflasi Peningkatan dalam seluruh tingkat harga (price level) secara berkelanjutan 2 Ukuran mengenai Tingkat Harga yang banyak digunakan GDP Deflator yang juga disebut deflator harga implisit untuk GDP Consumer Price Index (CPI)/Indek Harga Konsumen Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

53 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 The GDP Deflator Rata-rata harga dari final goods yang diproduksi GDP deflator dalam tahun t = Pt For 2001 Note: Real GDP in chained 1996 dollars Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

54 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 The GDP Deflator Pt is an index number P2001 = (1996 = 100) Index numbers are used to measure rate of change over time Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

55 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Average prices of goods consumed The CPI is not equal to the GDP deflator Some final goods are sold to business, government, and foreigners Some consumer goods are imported Published monthly Involves several steps Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

56 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 Steps in Calculating the CPI 1) Consumer expenditure survey to determine a market basket of items 2) Bureau of labor statistics (BLS) field workers price the items monthly (85 cities, 22,000 stores) 3) A base period is chosen, currently Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

57 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 Steps in Calculating the CPI 5) 1998 CPI = 163 ( = 100) Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

58 Inflation Rate, Using the CPI and the GDP Deflator, 1960, 1998
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Inflation Rate, Using the CPI and the GDP Deflator, 1960, 1998 Medan, 2006 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

59 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Medan, 2006 Why Do Economists Care About Inflation? Prices and wages do not rise proportionately Inflation creates market distortions due to: Regulation Taxation Uncertainty for business investment Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

60 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Change in the U.S. Inflation Rate versus the U.S. Unemployment Rate, Medan, 2006 The Phillips Curve Low U – inflation increases High U – inflation decreases Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

61 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Medan, 2006 A Road Map The Central Question of Macroeconomics What determines the level of aggregate output? Demand Supply Government, education, and savings Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

62 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Medan, 2006 A Road Map The Central Question of Macroeconomics What determines the level of aggregate output? Short-run (a few years) -- demand Medium-run (10+ years) -- supply Long-run (50+ years) -- government, education, savings Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

63 Pengeluaran dan Komponen Permintaan dari GDP
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Pengeluaran dan Komponen Permintaan dari GDP Total permintaan untuk output domestik dibagi menjadi 4 komponen, yaitu : Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumah Tangga Pengeluaran Investasi oleh firm dan RT Belanja Pemerintah untuk Barang dan Jasa Permintaan asing untuk Export neto Secara Matematis dinyatakan sbb : Y = C + I + G + NX Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

64 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Medan, 2006 Konsumsi (C) def: Nilai dan ri semua barang dan jasa yang dibeli oleh rumah tangga (households). Termasuk : durable goods last a long time ex: cars, home appliances non-durable goods last a short time ex: food, clothing services work done for consumers ex: dry cleaning, air travel. A consumer’s spending on a new house counts under investment, not consumption. More on this in a few moments, when we get to Investment. A tenant’s spending on rent counts under services -- rent is considered spending on “housing services.” So what happens if a renter buys the house she had been renting? Conceptually, consumption should remain unchanged: just because she is no longer paying rent, she is still consuming the same housing services as before. In national income accounting, (the services category of) consumption includes the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing. To help students keep all this straight, you might suggest that they think of a house as a piece of capital which is used to produce a consumer service, which we might call “housing services”. Thus, spending on the house counts in “investment”, and the value of the housing services that the house provides counts under “consumption” (regardless of whether the housing services are being consumed by the owner of the house or a tenant). Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

65 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Medan, 2006 Investment (I) def1: spending on [the factor of production] capital. def2: spending on goods bought for future use. Includes: business fixed investment spending on plant and equipment that firms will use to produce other goods & services residential fixed investment spending on housing units by consumers and landlords inventory investment the change in the value of all firms’ inventories In definition #1, note that aggregate investment equals total spending on newly produced capital goods. (If I pay $1000 for a used computer for my business, then I’m doing $1000 of investment, but the person who sold it to me is doing $1000 of disinvestment, so there is no net impact on aggregate investment.) The housing issue A consumer’s spending on a new house counts under investment, not consumption. A tenant’s spending on rent counts under services -- rent is considered spending on “housing services.” So what happens if a renter buys the house she had been renting? Conceptually, consumption should remain unchanged: just because she is no longer paying rent, she is still consuming the same housing services as before. In national income accounting, (the services category of) consumption includes the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing. To help students keep all this straight, you might suggest that they think of a house as a piece of capital which is used to produce a consumer service, which we might call “housing services”. Thus, spending on the house counts in “investment”, and the value of the housing services that the house provides counts under “consumption” (regardless of whether the housing services are being consumed by the owner of the house or a tenant). Inventories If total inventories are $10 billion at the beginning of the year, and $12 billion at the end, then inventory investment equals $2 billion for the year. Note that inventory investment can be negative (which means inventories fell over the year). Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

66 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Medan, 2006 Investment vs. Capital Capital is one of the factors of production. At any given moment, the economy has a certain overall stock of capital. Investment is spending on new capital. Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

67 Government spending (G)
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Government spending (G) G termasuk seluruh pengeluaran pemerintah atas barang-barang dan jasa. G tidak termasuk transfer payments (e.g. unemployment insurance payments), because they do not represent spending on goods and services. Transfer payments are included in “government outlays,” but not in government spending. People who receive transfer payments use these funds to pay for their consumption. Thus, we avoid double-counting by excluding transfer payments from G. Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

68 Net exports (NX = EX - IM)
Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Net exports (NX = EX - IM) def: Nilai dari total exports (EX) dikurangi nilai dari total imports (IM) source: FRED Database, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Before showing the data graph, the following explanation might be helpful: Remember, GDP is the value of spending on our country’s output of goods & services. Exports represent foreign spending on our country’s output, so we include exports. Imports represent the portion of domestic spending (C, I, and G) that goes to foreign goods and services, so we subtract off imports. NX, therefore, equals net spending by the foreign sector on domestically produced goods & services. Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

69 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Medan, 2006 Persamaan Penting Perekonomian Sederhana : Y = C + I Membangun Hubunagan S, C dan PDB (Y) Y = S + C C + I = Y = C + S I = Y-C=S I = S Perekonomian Terbuka (Masuknya Perdagangan Internasional) Y = C + I + G + NX where Y = GDP = the value of total output C + I + G + NX = aggregate expenditure A few slides ago, we defined GDP as the total expenditure on the economy’s output of goods and services (as well as total income). We can also define GDP as (the value of) aggregate output, not just spending on output. An identity is an equation that always holds because of the way the variables are defined. Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

70 C = (C+I+G+NX)+TR-TA-S
AGGREGATE DEMAND Total sejumlah barang dan jasa yang diminta dalam perekonomian yang dijabarkan menjadi barang yang diminta untuk C + I + G + NX AD =Y= C + I + G + NX YD = Y + TR – TA dan YD = C + S C+S=YD=Y+TR-TA C=YD-S =Y + TR – TA – S C = (C+I+G+NX)+TR-TA-S S – I = (G+TR-TA)+NX

71 Ekonomimakro Lanjutan
Medan, 2006 The End You have been a fine audience ! Thank you ! Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si


Download ppt "Ekonomimakro Lanjutan"

Presentasi serupa


Iklan oleh Google