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Pusat Penelitian Geografi Terapan Universitas Indonesia Triarko Nurlambang.

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Presentasi berjudul: "Pusat Penelitian Geografi Terapan Universitas Indonesia Triarko Nurlambang."— Transcript presentasi:

1 Pusat Penelitian Geografi Terapan Universitas Indonesia Triarko Nurlambang

2 Sumber Daya Alam Renewable (dapat diperbaharui) - siklus perbaharuan : udara, tanaman - ciptakan substitusi: bahan bakar - re-cycle (daur ulang): air Non-renewable - Depletion/deplesi (berkurangnya deposit) - Perlu waktu lama untuk pembentukan ulang (skala waktu geologi)  contohnya adalah minyak (bahan bio) atau bahan mineral

3 Untuk TUJUAN APA ? Sustainability Competitiveness

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5 Idealism: United in Diversity based on Pacasila (?) Hundreds of ethnic groups Unbalanced geodemographic distribution (less densed pop. in eastern) Dominated by muslim (concentrated in western and center) SocietyEconomy Environment Economic/business activities concentraed more in Western part Western part has better infrastructure and business support Western part is closer to international business center (Singapore-Malaysia and East Asia) Big gap between urban and rural economy Biodiversity; second richest in the world (land + sea) Heavy exploitation in western rather than eastern Scaterred Resources (tangibles and intangibles) Confusing Laws central vs local by sector

6 Hidup dari lingkungan Berburu dan bertani Berdagang / barter Berdagang / transaksi benda berharga (uang) Export/ import Perdagangan regional baru Apalagi yang akan datang ? terkonvergnsi Jaman imperialisme………….... Imperialisme gaya baru globalisasi Tata dunia baru (metanasional)

7 Long Wave Cycles of Innovation st Wave2 nd Wave3 rd Wave4 th Wave5 th Wave Water power Textiles Iron Steam Rail Steel Electricity Chemicals Internal-combustion engine Petrochemicals Electronics Aviation Digital networks Software New Media 60 years55 years50 years40 years30 years Pace of innovation

8 Sectors of the Economy Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary Time Percent of Workforce

9 t p - 20 t p - 10 tptp calibration t p + 10 Forecast Dynamic spatial models fonte: Almeida et al (2003)

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11 t1 t2 t3 Expansion Diffusion t1 t2 t3 Relocation Diffusion Combination of Expansion and Relocation

12 MODEL INTERAKSI MANUSIA DAN LINGKUNGAN HIDUP ECONOMY PEOPLE Human Activity environment EcosystemEncroachment resources Impact on people Waste, pollution, and dissipative use Ecosystem services

13 Tekanan terhadap Ekosistem Economic subsystem Population subsystem Goods & services labor Human subsystem Environmental compartment Ecosystem impacts Environmental subsystem STATEPRESSURE Resource Depletion Pollution Natural Feedbacks Societal Response Human System Feedback RESPONSE

14 Budaya (non-Formal) Kelembagaan Legal (formal) Social Capital Modal alam dan buatan manusia Alokasi sumber daya Kesejahteraan Pasar Persepsi Masyarakat (Human Capital)

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16 Ecological / Carrying Capacity Root Resource / environment root Biosphere root Critique of technology root No-growth/ slow- slow growth root Eco-development root

17 Thomas Malthus Karl Marx

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19 Malthus and Marx Today Neo-Malthusians - Believe we are approaching, or have already surpassed, the earth’s carrying capacity. - We should make over-population issues our first priority. Neo-Marxists - Believe eliminating oppression and poverty through social justice is the only solution to the population problem. - Wealth and resource distribution must be addressed.

20 Ecologist Paul Ehrlich argues the American lifestyle is driving the global ecosystem to the brink of collapse. Economist Julian Simon argued human ingenuity, not resources, limits economic growth and lifestyles.

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22 Future Growth: Developing Countries Developing country urban rural

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25 Both plans provide 36 home sites. Conventional Subdivision versus Cluster Housing (Open-Space Zoning) Quality of environment but not waste, food production

26 Istirahat 15 menit

27 This area is devoted to the study of whole systems. Nature is a whole system. But also an economy, a family, a company, a community, or many other things, can be looked at as whole systems. A whole system view would include all the factors involved and examine how they relate to each other and how they work as a whole. To deal with a whole system we can't leave anything out as irrelevant. Intuition is as important as rationality, we must address both scientific and artistic approaches, both material and spiritual needs, the small as well as the big, what we feel as well as what we think, what we perceive as well as what we imagine. Whole systems are dynamic, they change they move, they develop. Frozen pictures of how things are supposed to be might do us no good, we need to deal with the live systems, whichever surprising directions that might take us in. There is no one authority in the field of whole systems. Luckily nobody has monopolized it by putting it into a standard curriculum defining what it IS. So, we all have the opportunity to discover together what whole systems are about.

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31 Pengang guran Tabungan terbatas Kurang modal Produktifi tas rendah Pendapatan /kapita rendah Daya beli rendah Pertmbhn eko. rendah Keluarga besar Laju kelahiran tinggi Permintaan tenga kerja tinggi Output/ pekerja kurang Pendidikan kurang Kemiskinan Perumahan tak layak Kondisi hidup tak sehat Kesehatan buruk Kurang gizi Diet jelek Ouput pertanian kecil Sedikit input modern REGION “A” Jika menggunakan pendekatan sektoral maka sulit menentukan prioritas Jika menggunakan pendekatan regional maka akan dilihat lebih holistik /komprehensif dan sistemik; prioritas nya adalah kebutuhan stakeholder

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33 A New Dichotomy: Economic vs Ecological Sustainable Where are we? Is growth sustainable? Where to? Paranoia to Partnership Environmental degradation and resource depletion Increasing Income disparity Poverty and Marginalization Population size and growth Economic volume and pattern Technological choice Governance Environmental quality Values, desires and aspirations Structure of PowerKnowledge and Understanding Human Needs Long Term Ecological Processes Critical trend Proximate trend Ultimate trend

34 Gross Domestic Product and the Environment Some Economists and their stupid accounting tricks 1) Standard Business Practice Machines and Buildings etc. counted as assets As they deteriorate (are used up) they are depreciated and this depreciation is called a loss. 2) Standard National Accounting Practice Call sales of Oil, Timber, & Water: profits Ignore the loss of natural resources as losses Call housing starts economic growth Ignore loss of housing from flood, fire, earthquakes

35 An Oil Spill in Mexico Good for the Economy? You betcha. Where best: U.S., Mexico, or Ecuador?

36 A wildfire in Laguna Beach Do you think these people are hoping their homes will burn down To help boost the local economy?

37 SOCIAL Perspectives ECONOMIC Perspectives ENVIRONMENTAL Perspectives Human Rights Peace and human security Gender equality Cultural diversity & intercultural understanding Health HIV/AIDS Governance Natural resources (water, energy, agriculture, biodiversity) Climate Change Rural Development Sustainable urbanization Disaster prevention and mitigation Poverty reduction Corporate responsibility and accountability Market economy Economic: the production of goods and services Social : the maintenance and enhancement of the quality of life Environmental: the conservation and prudent management of natural resources Sustainable Development: Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (“Our Common Future”, the World Commission on Environment and Development, 1997)

38 Road Map Permasalahan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan di Indonesia Sosial EkonomiLH Sosial EkonomiLH Sosial Ekonomi LH Titik Nadir Pembangunan NKRI (over- exploitation) Zona Optimal Pembangunan Berkelanjutan Titik Nadir Pembangunan Berkelanjutan (in-active) Sebelum reformasi Masa awal reformasi Masa yang akan datang ? “Bend the Curve” Skenario Optimis Ditandai oleh: Utamakan kepentingan Pemb. Ekonomi Pemerintahan Otoriter Ditandai oleh: UU Otonomi Daerah Eksploitasi SDA utk PAD Skenario Moderat Skenario Pesimis Lebih memperhatikan: Pembangunan berkelanjutan Modal sosial/ budaya GCG/ value driven

39 Contoh Kasus Setelah Bencana Gempa dan Tsunami Aceh

40 CA/SEA Dev. Aspect Infrastructures Dev. Aspect Livelihood forestryfisheryagriculture Rice field (extension) irrigation seed fertilizer store storage End users / consumers HousingRoad Water Supply Houseswood iron cement Water installation Street Main Dev. Aspect Class. 1 Class. 2 Housing allocation CA Dev 1 Index CA Dev 2 Index Sum of CA Index Rice field Commercial Area Pelab uhan gud ang Jalan lingkungan Jalan kabupaten Jalan propinsi sungai irigasi Hutan Sand mining sand CA: Daerah Aliran Sungai Area SEA: Strategic Environmental Assessment

41 Critical Environment al pressure points (CEPP) SPATIALAPPROACHSPATIALAPPROACH Level of NAD/ Nias Development Index based on CEPP model Development activitiesDevelopment activities Domestic activitiesDomestic activities Suitable for continuing development Not-suitable for continuing development Critical development condition  it needs special treatment Development in Crisis condition  Major development actions need to stopped / freeze Safe development condition  it needs to be maintained well threshold CEPP Role in relation to Understanding Dev. Stages by considering Alert System (Critical Pressure) T

42 Pembangunan rumah Pembangunan jalan T0 Tn Penduduk LahanEkonomi ASPEK PEMBANGUNAN ASPEK LINGKUNGAN EKOLOGINON EKOLOGI Tanah/LahanUdaraAirEkonomiSosialPolitik INFRASTRUKTUR SARANA Perumahan Jalan/ transportasi Fasilitas Umum a. Pembuangan Limbah b. Konstruksi pertahanan pantai PRASARANA Air Bersih Energi (Listrik) Telekomunikasi MATA PENCAHARIAN PRIMER Pertanian Kehutanan Perikanan Pertambangan SEKUNDER Manufaktur TERSIER Perdagangan Jasa Logical Framework Mental Model

43 Logical Framework ASPEK PEMBANGUNAN ASPEK LINGKUNGAN EKOLOGINON EKOLOGI Tanah/LahanUdaraAirEkonomiSosialPolitik INFRASTRUKTUR SARANA Perumahan Jalan/ transportasi Fasilitas Umum a. Pembuangan Limbah b. Konstruksi pertahanan pantai PRASARANA Air Bersih Energi (Listrik) Telekomunikasi MATA PENCAHARIAN PRIMER Pertanian Kehutanan Perikanan Pertambangan SEKUNDER Manufaktur TERSIER Perdagangan Jasa

44 Mental Model #1: Permukiman Rumah Bata Kayu konstruksi Kayu bakar Tanah liat Hutan Pasir Batu pondasi Sungai Bukit/ Gunung Tier 1 Tier 2 LahanLahan Fokus Kajian Awal

45 Mental Model #2: Jalan Batu pondasi Sungai Bukit/ Gunung Tier 1 Tier 2 LahanLahan Fokus Kajian Awal JALAN Pasir

46 Mental Model #3: Populasi Populasi Penduduk Populasi Penduduk Kelahiran Kematian Inmigrasi Outmigrasi Ketersediaan Rumah Pendapatan Harapan Hidup Lapangan Kerja Kegiatan Konstruksi Kebutuhan Rumah Tier 2 Tier 1

47 PDRBPDRB

48 Critical Pressure Points of Natural Resources aspect (physical Environment) Critical Pressure Points on Social-Economic aspects Kegiatan pembangunan dan masyarakat Masa Rehabilitasi dan Rekonstruksi Sebelum Bencana Gempa dan Tsunami Terjadinya Bencana Gempa dan Tsunami serta Masa Gawat Darurat Masa setelah Rehabilitasi dan Rekonstruksi Tertiary Primary Secondary ? ? Perlu adanya Intervensi Kebijakan untuk mengurangi Dampak Negatif Pembangunan Kegiatan pembangunan dan masyarakat

49 Optimis Positif BaU Pesimis Negatif BaU T Akhir masa Rekon dan Rehab 2009/2010 : Tidak melewati titik kritis SDA/LH : melewati titik kritis SDA/LH KEBIJAKAN: Preventif + maintain KEBIJAKAN: Kuratif + perbaikan a. CP1 b. CP2 c. CP3 a. CP1 b. CP2 c. CP3 Prioritas Program Apa / Bagaimana / Kapan: Strategi – Program Program INPUT KEBIJAKAN CP1 : Critical Point 1 Faktor determinan CP To : tahun pengamatan awal Berdasarkan hasil kajian model CEPP - SENRA ? ? Keterangan Analisis Kondisional Apa / Bagaimana / Kapan: Strategi – Program

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