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Dinamika Perubahan Ekonomi Dunia dilihat dari Perspektif Geografi Perkembangan kehidupan Perkembangan desa - kota Perubahan demografis Perubahan sektor.

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Presentasi berjudul: "Dinamika Perubahan Ekonomi Dunia dilihat dari Perspektif Geografi Perkembangan kehidupan Perkembangan desa - kota Perubahan demografis Perubahan sektor."— Transcript presentasi:

1 Dinamika Perubahan Ekonomi Dunia dilihat dari Perspektif Geografi Perkembangan kehidupan Perkembangan desa - kota Perubahan demografis Perubahan sektor ekonomi Kuliah Geografi Ekonomi Triarko Nurlambang

2 What is an Economy? A social system that organizes and regulates land, labor and resources for production and determines the distribution of wealth Economic systems determine processes of production, distribution and consumption Economies are social: they regulate relationships between people and between interest groups

3 What is a Region? A defined location with known scale (size) and specific extent (scope) A contiguous area with common or complementary characteristics or linked by intensive interaction or flows A working tool to achieve some end related to spatial analysis

4 What is Economic Geography? Current patterns of economic activity of regions Trends (changes) in economic activity of regions Factors changing the economic activity of regions Current patterns of exchange between regions (include trade, migration and investment) Trends (changes) in exchange between regions Factors changing the exchange between regions

5 Economies of Scale and Clustering Clustering efficiencies are external economies of scale Economies of scale are reductions in unit cost as the volume of production increases In production, bigger is better – up to a point External economies are realized by proximity to or ties with others outside the firm

6 Hidup dari lingkungan Berburu dan bertani Berdagang / barter Berdagang / transaksi benda berharga (uang) Export/ import Perdagangan regional baru Apalagi yang akan datang ? terkonvergnsi Jaman imperialisme…. Imperialisme gaya baru globalisasi Tata dunia baru (metanasional)

7 Cara berpikir LINIER harus diganti dengan HOLISTIK dan berbasis SKENARIO

8 BerkembangTransisiMaju/ stabil TEORI TRANSISI DEMOGRAFI (Waren Thompson, 1929)

9 World’s Largest Countries in 2001 Rank CountryPopulation 1China1.27 billion 2India1.03 billion 3United States285 million 4Indonesia206 million 5Brazil172 million 6Pakistan145 million 7Russia144 million 8Bangladesh134 million 9Japan127 million 10Nigeria127 million 11Mexico100 million 12Germany82 million 13Vietnam79 million 14Philippines77 million 15Egypt70 million World’s Largest Countries in 2025 Rank CountryPopulation 1China1.43 billion 2India1.36 billion 3United States346 million 4Indonesia272 million 5Pakistan252 million 6Brazil219 million 7Nigeria204 million 8Bangladesh181 million 9Russia137 million 10Mexico131 million 11Japan121 million 12Ethiopia118 million 13Philippines108 million 14 Congo, Democratic Republic of (Zaire) 106 million 15Vietnam104 million

10 Table: World Population, Regional Totals, 0-1998. (000's) 01000150016001700182018701913195019731998 Western Europe24,70025,41357,26873,77881,460132,888187,532261,007305,060358,390388,399 Eastern Europe4,7506,50013,50016,95018,80036,41552,18279,60487,289110,490121,006 Former USSR3,9007,10016,95020,70026,55054,76588,672156,192180,050249,748290,866 Western Offshoots (US+)1,1701,9602,8002,3001,75011,23046,133111,401176,094250,945323,420 Latin America5,60011,40017,5008,60012,05021,22039,97380,515165,837308,450507,623 Japan3,0007,50015,40018,50027,00031,00034,43751,67283,563108,660126,469 Asia (except Japan)171,200175,400268,400360,000374,800679,366730,619925,9321,298,2962,139,1543,389,943 Africa16,50033,00046,00055,00061,00074,20890,466124,697228,342387,645759,954 World230,820268,273437,818555,828603,4101,041,091,270,011,791,0202,524,5313,913,4825,907,680 Table: World GDP Per Capita, Regional Averages, 0-1998, 1990 International Dollars 01000150016001700182018701913195019731998 Western Europe450400774894102412321974347345941153417921 Eastern Europe400 4625165666368711527212049855461 Former USSR400 5005536116899431488283460583893 Western Offshoots (US+)400 47312012431525792881617226146 Latin America400 4164375296596981511255445315795 Japan400425500520570669737138719261143920413 Asia (except Japan)450 57257557157554364063512312936 Africa425416400 41844458585213651368 World4444355655936156678671510211441045709 http://gsociology.icaap.org/report/longterm.html

11 Table: Percent of world economic output. 01000150016001700182018701913195019731998 Western Europe10.8%8.7%17.9%20.0%22.5%23.6%33.6%33.5%26.3%25.7%20.6% Eastern Europe1.9%2.2%2.5%2.7%2.9%3.3%4.1%4.5%3.5%3.4%2.0% Former USSR1.5%2.4%3.4%3.5%4.4%5.4%7.6%8.6%9.6%9.4%3.4% Western Offshoots (US+)0.5%0.7%0.5%0.3%0.2%1.9%10.2%21.7%30.6%25.3%25.1% Latin America2.2%3.9%2.9%1.1%1.7%2.0%2.5%4.5%7.9%8.7% Japan1.2%2.7%3.1%2.9%4.1%3.0%2.3%2.7%3.0%7.7% Asia (except Japan)75.2%67.6%62.1%62.8%57.7%56.3%36.0%21.9%15.4%16.4%29.5% Africa6.8%11.8%7.4%6.7%6.6%4.5%3.6%2.7%3.6%3.3%3.1% Table 1.4, Percent of world population 01000150016001700182018701913195019731998 Western Europe10.7%9.5%13.1%13.3%13.5%12.8%14.8%14.6%12.1%9.2%6.6% Eastern Europe2.1%2.4%3.1%3.0%3.1%3.5%4.1%4.4%3.5%2.8%2.0% Former USSR1.7%2.6%3.9%3.7%4.4%5.3%7.0%8.7%7.1%6.4%4.9% Western Offshoots (US+)0.5%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.3%1.1%3.6%6.2%7.0%6.4%5.5% Latin America2.4%4.2%4.0%1.5%2.0% 3.1%4.5%6.6%7.9%8.6% Japan1.3%2.8%3.5%3.3%4.5%3.0%2.7%2.9%3.3%2.8%2.1% Asia (except Japan)74.2%65.4%61.3%64.8%62.1%65.3%57.5%51.7%51.4%54.7%57.4% Africa7.1%12.3%10.5%9.9%10.1%7.1% 7.0%9.0%9.9%12.9% Calculated from table 1.2. http://gsociology.icaap.org/report/longterm.html

12 Sejarah Ekonomi Indonesia (1) Table 1 Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product per Capita Compared with Several Other Asian Countries (in 1990 dollars) IndonesiaPhilippinesThailandJapan 19007451 0338121 180 19139041 0668351 385 19508401 0708171 926 19731 5041 9591 87411 439 19902 5162 1994 64518 789 20003 0412 3856 33520 084 Source: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, Paris: OECD Fakta Dasar Indonesia adalah negara kepulauan yang terletak di Asia Tenggara. Terdiri dari kurang-lebih 13.000 pulau dengan pulau Sumatera, Jawa, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Papua adalah pulau-pulau yang besar diapit oleh Samudera Hindia dan Pasifik. Luas total Indonesia yaitu 1,9 juta km2. Indonesia memiliki iklim tropik dengan rangakain pegunungan vulkanik dan merupakan tempat pertemuan tiga lempeng dunia. Oleh karenanya Indonesia mempunyai lahan yang relatif subur dan kaya akan bahan tambang, seperti minyak dan gas, timah, bauxute, nickel, batu bara, tembaga, emas dan perak. Sampai dengan tahun 2006 jumlah penduduk Indonesia hampir mencapai 240 juta dengan konsentrasi di pulau Jawa (hampir 60%).

13 Sejarah Ekonomi Indonesia (2) Pra-kolonial (Sriwijaya, Majapahit, Mataram) Awal Kolonial (abad 16-17) Kolonial (abad 19)  VOC; cultivation system, perdagangan modern Ekonomi Ekspor (1900-1942) Post-1945 Orde Baru  pertumbuhan ek. Reformasi (?)  krisis finan sial Financial Results of Government Cultivation, 1840-1849 ('Cultivation System') (in thousands of guilders in current values) 1840-18441845-1849 Coffee40 27824 549 Sugar8 2184 136 Indigo,7 8367 726 Pepper, Tea6471 725 Total net profits39 34135 057 Source: Fasseur 1975: 20.

14 World Migration Routes Since 1700 European African (slaves) Indian Chinese Japanese Majority of population descended from immigrants

15 Long Wave Cycles of Innovation 17851845190019501990 1 st Wave2 nd Wave3 rd Wave4 th Wave5 th Wave Water power Textiles Iron Steam Rail Steel Electricity Chemicals Internal-combustion engine Petrochemicals Electronics Aviation Digital networks Software New Media 60 years55 years50 years40 years30 years Pace of innovation

16 Kumulatif Sumbangan Moda Transportasi terhadap Peluang Ekonomis Kuda Kapal Laut Kapal Penyeberangan Kereta Api Jalan darat Udara Telekomunikasi 1750177518001825185018751900192519501975200020252050 Peluang Ekonomis Revolusi Industrial Produksi Massal Globalisasi

17 Core-Periphery Stages of Development in a Urban System 1 2 3 4 Core Periphery

18 Future Growth: Developed and Developing Countries Developing country urban rural

19 Rank / Size of the World’s 25 Largest Cities, 2000

20 Sectors of the Economy Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary Time Percent of Workforce

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24 Poles of the Global Economy Newly Industrializing Developing Underdeveloped Advanced Oil Export / Rent North America Western Europe East Asia Economies

25 Core / Periphery Division of the World Core Semi-Periphery Periphery

26 Apa saja faktor utama penggerak perubahan masa depan? Pertumbuhan penduduk secara eksponensial Speed of innovation (accelerating)  tren teknologi dan (ICT, robotic/nano), ilmu pengetahuan dasar (biologi/bio- tech, fisika-materi, kimia)  Batas industri dan penelitian- pengembangan (R & D) menjadi tambah kabur

27 Beberapa contoh hasil prediksi masa depan Berdasarkan studi J.R. Mooneyham 2006 Wireless LAN 2008 Nanocomputer elements 2010 Optical cards menggantikan floppy disk 2015 Mendengarkan musik 6 hari dalam satu chip 2035 Super-jumbo jets membawa 1500 penumpang 2038 NASA mengirim orang pertama ke Mars 2050 Bertamasya ke luar angkasa 2058 Implan otak buatan meningkatkan kemampuan intelijen 2064 Otak buatan terkoneksi dengan komputer 2073 Kota bawah tanah terbangun 2087 Ekosistem di re-boot 2088 Muncul banyak spesies baru 2150 Bermunculan non-biologis yang bisa berpikir 2300 Ada kuda diangkasa 2450 Ditemukan the “United State of Earth” 2500 Pemukiman baru di Mars Siklus Kondratieff yang menjelaskan siklus 60 tahunan atas dasar adanya perubahan radikal dalam teknologi sehingga menciptakan satu bentuk kehidupan baru Tren ketenagakerjaan dikembangkan oleh Leo A. Nefiodow) dimana sektor pertanian akan mengalami kemunduran dan sektor jasa menjadi semakin utama Tren teknologi yang dikembangkan oleh Gartner (Hype Cycle) dan Moore (Moore’s Lawn  perkembang microelectronics; dunia menjadi terkonvergensidan siklus perubahan semakin pendek

28 Munculnya pola kehidupan yang baru KEHIDUPAN BARU Faktor pendorong masa depan : keamanan & kepercayaan, penghematan biaya-waktu, bertmabahnya kenyamanan, dan perbaikan kualitas hidup Faktor penghambat : kompleksitas, tiadanya standard dan layanan buruk Faktor pengubah : teknologi Aplikasi Cara baru menjalankan bisnis kesehatan Waktu luang dan hiburan Pembelajaran Proteksi lingkungan Militer Bisnis elektronik Real Time Business Mobile business Manajemen kesehatan Jasa perbaikan Jasa dokter Dunia Maya/ virtual Model baru sekolah Pelatihan individual Pelatihan profesional Monitoring Lingkungan hidup Rancang produk Eksplorasi Proses material Recyclability Lingkungan dan perang Prosesi informasi Pelatihan Pakaian seragam Fungsi konsep strategi Portal sbg gerbang dunia E-customer bonding E-business di industri Pengganti lokasi pasar Internet dalam peralatan mobil MMS Pembayaran elektronik Permintaan pelanggan

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30 Selected Key regional priority issues (environmental dev.) Africa: Land degradation and its cross-cutting impacts on forests, freshwater, marine and coastal resources, as well as pressures such as drought, climate variability and change, and urbanization Asia and the Pacific: Transport and urban air quality, freshwater stress, valuable ecosystems, agricultural land use, and waste management Europe: Climate change and energy, unsustainable production and consumption, air quality and transport, biodiversity loss and land-use change, and freshwater stress Latin America and the Caribbean: Growing cities, biodiversity and ecosystems, degrading coasts and polluted seas, and regional vulnerability to climate change North America: Energy and climate change, urban sprawl and freshwater stress West Asia: Freshwater stress, land degradation, degrading coasts and marine ecosystems, urban management, and peace and security Polar Regions: Climate change, persistent pollutants, the ozone layer, and development and commercial activity http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/report/06_Regional_Perspectives.pdf


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