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Kontribusi IPTEK bagi Pembangunan Daya Saing di Indonesia Triarko Nurlambang Pusat Penelitian Geografi Terapan - FMIPA UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA Disampaikan.

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Presentasi berjudul: "Kontribusi IPTEK bagi Pembangunan Daya Saing di Indonesia Triarko Nurlambang Pusat Penelitian Geografi Terapan - FMIPA UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA Disampaikan."— Transcript presentasi:

1 Kontribusi IPTEK bagi Pembangunan Daya Saing di Indonesia Triarko Nurlambang Pusat Penelitian Geografi Terapan - FMIPA UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA Disampaikan pada Diskusi Terbatas “ Peningkatan Kapasitas Program Riset Untuk mendukung Daya Saing” Menristek, 09 Juni 2009

2 NEGARA-NEGARA LAIN SUDAH BERGERAK CEPAT; INDONESIA DIMANA?

3 Looking back at tomorrow (Learning from the Future) Today’s business control Core Processes Human NeedsHuman Needs Health Leisure Education Environment Military Today short-term mid-term Long-term Future Strategy Scenario Application fields Spheres of lives Trends General society Society Politics Economy Environment Customers Competition Technology Semi-conductors Biotechnology Disruptive The way we look at things Georg Berner SIEMENS 2004

4 Munculnya pola kehidupan yang baru KEHIDUPAN BARU Faktor pendorong masa depan : keamanan & kepercayaan, penghematan biaya- waktu, bertambahnya kenyamanan, dan perbaikan kualitas hidup Faktor penghambat : kompleksitas, tiadanya standard dan layanan buruk Faktor pengubah : teknologi Aplikasi Cara baru menjalankan bisnis kesehatan Waktu luang dan hiburan Pembelajaran Proteksi lingkungan Militer Bisnis elektronik Real Time Business Mobile business Manajemen kesehatan Jasa perbaikan Jasa dokter Dunia Maya/ virtual Model baru sekolah Pelatihan individual Pelatihan profesional Monitoring Lingkungan hidup Rancang produk Eksplorasi Proses material Recyclability Lingkungan dan perang Prosesi informasi Pelatihan Pakaian seragam Fungsi konsep strategi Portal sbg gerbang dunia E-customer bonding E-business di industri Pengganti lokasi pasar Internet dalam peralatan mobil MMS Pembayaran elektronik Permintaan pelanggan Georg Berner SIEMENS 2004

5 Bioteknologi Bioteknologi: ladang masa depan Lingkungan Energi Pangan Produksi Mesin/kompo nen KesehatanManusia- mesin Pemurnian Recycling Environmental compatibity Sustainability Pemulihan kerusakan Hidrogen, metanol Energi fosil Cahaya Tumbuhan Ternak Material/kimiawi Bahan dasar/ bahan subtitusi Recyclability Obat-obatan (medikasi, implan, penggantian organ) Biokomputer Androids (humanoid robots) Cyborgs (manusia dengan teknologi implan) Biorobots Peralatan Teknologi sensor (RFID) Diagnostik Healing Gaya hidup (kosmetik, peremajaan) Pembelajaran Komunikasi Pengembangan kemampuan indra Pengembangan kemampuan daya pikir Georg Berner SIEMENS 2004

6 Kondratieff Cycle Stream engine Railroads steel Electricity chemistry Automobiles Electronics Information ? st wave2 nd wave3 rd wave4 th wave5 th wave TODAY Global network Driving Application Driving technology Internet, computer information and communication network Knowledge and protocol networks telematics Electronic mobile and real-time business services, edutainment, healthy work, commence environment Broadband transmission and personal mobile application

7 Penetrasi pasar di Amerika Serikat oleh Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi dalam juta pelanggan di AS Radio (40 thn) Telepon (90 thn) TV set (15 thn) Angka dalam kurung adalah waktu yang diperlukan untuk mencapai 50 juta pelanggan TV kabel (10 thn) Komputer (13 thn) HP (11 thn) Internet (5 thn) Internet Nirkabel (2 thn)

8 Apa saja faktor utama penggerak perubahan masa depan? Pertumbuhan penduduk secara eksponensial Speed of innovation (accelerating)  tren teknologi dan (ICT, robotic/nano), ilmu pengetahuan dasar (biologi/bio-tech, fisika-materi, kimia)  Batas industri dan penelitian-pengembangan (R & D) menjadi tambah kabur Georg Berner SIEMENS 2004

9 Beberapa contoh hasil prediksi masa depan Berdasarkan studi J.R. Mooneyham 2006 Wireless LAN 2008 Nanocomputer elements 2010 Optical cards menggantikan floppy disk 2015 Mendengarkan musik 6 hari dalam satu chip 2035 Super-jumbo jets membawa 1500 penumpang 2038 NASA mengirim orang pertama ke Mars 2050 Bertamasya ke luar angkasa 2058 Implan otak buatan meningkatkan kemampuan intelijen 2064 Otak buatan terkoneksi dengan komputer 2073 Kota bawah tanah terbangun 2087 Ekosistem di re-boot 2088 Muncul banyak spesies baru 2150 Bermunculan non-biologis yang bisa berpikir 2300 Ada kuda diangkasa 2450 Ditemukan the “United State of Earth” 2500 Pemukiman baru di Mars Siklus Kondratieff yang menjelaskan siklus 60 tahunan atas dasar adanya perubahan radikal dalam teknologi sehingga menciptakan satu bentuk kehidupan baru Tren ketenagakerjaan (dikembangkan oleh Leo A. Nefiodow) dimana sektor pertanian akan mengalami kemunduran dan sektor jasa menjadi semakin utama Tren teknologi yang dikembangkan oleh Gartner (Hype Cycle) dan Moore (Moore’s Lawn  perkembang microelectronics; dunia menjadi terkonvergensi dan siklus perubahan semakin pendek

10 Building Block of the 21 st Century Building Blocks of the 21 st Century DNA Bandwi dth Bits Atoms Components Materials SoftwareRobotics NanotechnologyComputing NetworkBiotechnology Medical Science Information Communication Sustainability Safety Humaneness Reliability Security

11 People – Situation – Innovation - Productivity Prosperity and further development Innovation People Productivity Situation Environment and nature Taxes and charges Laws and regulation Resources and stability Location and infrastructure Research and development Technology and products Applications and services Creativity and performance Infrastructure and external network Processes and their contents Effectiveness and efficiency Leadership and coaching Implementation of own vision Team Commitment and hard work Training and further training Responsibility for self and others Freedom and security

12 BAGAIMANA MENGEJAR KETERTINGGALAN? BAGAIMANA ARAH DAN STRATEGI NYA? …………

13 Indonesia

14 The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2008

15 Knowledge creation Continuous innovation Competitive advantage

16 Dasar Kompetisi FLEXIBLE COMPANY QUALITY COMPANY EFFICIENT COMPANY INOVASI PILIHAN KUALITAS BIAYA ORGANISASI YANG INOVATIF ORGANISASI YANG FLEKSIBEL ORGANISASI YANG BERKUALITAS ORGANISASI YANG EFISIEN 60-an 70-an80-an 90-an TAHUN ORGANISASI YANG CERDAS DAYA SAING OTAK an PERMINTAANPASAR

17 The Technology Roadmapping Phases In most cases, strategies attempt to achieve these goals either by mobilizing the necessary local resources or by removing barriers to HTD (High Tech Dev.). The emphasis of the resulting initiatives falls into six general categories: a.Research, development, and technology transfer; Perhaps the most fundamental initiatives are those that aim to quicken the flow of innovation itself b. Human capital; Other initiatives focus on developing the human capital needed to exploit these innovations. Two important secondary effects of university/industry collaboration are improving science and engineering training and providing continuing education for those already employed by indus try c. entrepreneurship training and assistance; A special subset of human capital is entrepreneurship, and many initiatives by both universities and private sector groups, those who create new technology-based companies d. financial capital ; Many universities have also begun to invest in technology-based spinoffs, either directly or through seed capital funds and venture capital partnerships e. physical capital; Local governments often seek to encourage HTD through changes in land use and zoning, as well as the provision of public services and facilities. Incubator facilities, which provide low-cost office and laboratory space for entrepreneurs and struggling firms, are one form that this type of initiative can take ; and f. information gathering and dissemination. The first step in almost any State high-technology strategy is the creation or local of a task force or commission, usually with university and private sector participation. Source: OTA, 1984

18 Additional Factors increase the odds of success for State and local HTD initiatives identifying local needs and resources; adapting to external constraints; linkage with broader development efforts; local initiative and partnership (triple Helix) ; and sustained effort, often over a period of decades.

19 Many of the clusters we have worked in around the world are more clumps than innovative systems. The businesses are located together but there is limited interaction between the component parts of the cluster and limited interaction between the organisations that comprise the cluster component. Clumps have an absence of social capital (the investment in building personal relationships) and this leads to a lack of trust. This leads to an underperforming cluster as there is limited circulation of tacit information and limited development of highly specialised competencies. How do we move from clumps to innovative clusters? The essence of this approach in nurturing competitiveness is to remove the isolation of the cluster ’ s individual stakeholders, building them into an integrated and holistic system. We place emphasis on the development of a multiplicity of linkages within the cluster ’ s components, and between them; We foster the development of linkages beyond the cluster; We facilitate the building of whole-of-government support to the core and support firms; We ensure broad ownership of the cluster ’ s strategy and early action, with private sector leadership; We train facilitators, based within the cluster, who provide the necessary neutral corner to bring together the cluster ’ s stakeholders and establish the forward agenda CLUMPS OR INNOVATIVE CLUSTERS ?

20 NATIONAL INNOVATIVE CAPACITY National innovative capacity is defined as an economy’s potential, at a given point in time, for producing a stream of commercially relevant innovations. This capacity depends in part on the technological sophistication and labor force in a given economy, but also reflects the investments and policies of the government and private sector that affect the incentives for and the productivity of a country’s R&D activities. 1.Common Innovation Infrastructure 2.Cluster-Specific Innovation Orientation 3.The Quality of Linkages

21 Cluster Development Process StagesSteps 1. Mustering Support 1. Introducing the relevance of a clustering approach 2. Identifying and prioritising local clusters 2. Building the Base 3. Initial cluster analysis 4. Building the leadership group 3. Creating Momentum 5.Establishing the preferred future 6. Identifying the stepping stones 7. Immediate action agenda 4. Extending the Base 8. Launching the clustering initiative 9. Formalising the cluster 5. Sustaining Momentum 10. Upgrading the strategic agenda 11. Process review 12. Linking the cluster Nurturing clusters: Now a common focus With over 50 countries having cluster development on their agendas, clustering has today become an accepted part of economic development. The direction of these cluster programme comes from a range of perspectives: Addressing competitiveness & innovation; Business retention and expansion; SME development; export development; Skills & training; Building Triple Helix alignment … business, government and academia; Job creation; poverty alleviation; Engagement of disadvantaged communities; R&D, technology transfer, incubators, science parks.

22 The challenge of rethinking development policies go beyond considering these incremental changes, but to a historic shift from the industrial to the network age. Recent breakthroughs in information communications technologies and biotechnologies have led to transformations - technological advances are more rapid (e.g. doubling of computing power every 18 months), more fundamental (e.g. breakthroughs in genetic engineering), and more dramatically shifting costs (e.g. decline in cost of transmitting trillion bits of information from US$150,000 to just 12 cents over the last 3 decades). The developments in biotechnology and information telecommunications technology codify, store, process and communicate information and knowledge. These advances have structural and not just incremental impacts because they are pervasive inputs into almost all human activities and so have pervasive impacts throughout the society. These transformations are intertwined with economic globalization leading to a historic shift, from the industrial to the network age. Production, research, and many other activities are restructured into ‘networks’ of individuals and organizations specialized into niches of expertise, with the costs of communications driven down to zero and geographical boundaries falling M. Desai, S. Fukuda-Parr, C. Johansson, and F. Sagasti2 Measuring Technology Achievement of Nations and the Capacity to Participate in the Network Age Developing technological capacity Not all countries need to be on the cutting age of global technological advance. But every country needs the capacity to understand and adapt global technologies for local needs. It is often mistakenly assumed that technology transfer and diffusion are relatively easy, that developing countries can simply import and apply knowledge from outside by obtaining equipment, seeds and pills. But for firms or farms to use a new technology—to identify its potential benefits, to learn it, adapt it and use it— requires new skills and the ability to learn and develop new skills with ease (Lall, 2000). Note: TAI measurment (please see attached fileNote: TAI measurment (please see attached file)

23 10 SARAN TENTANG PERAN PENTING PEMERINTAH UNTUK PENINGKATAN DAYA SAING (VIETOR, 2007) 1.The Place to start is basic property rights 2.Macro economic policies (the necessity of fiscal probity; deficit control) 3.Saving and investment for economic growth 4.Strong central banks are necessary for noninflationary growth 5.Microeconomic policies are also important 6.Labor market flexibility 7.Observation pertains to resource endowments 8.Corruption fighting 9.Minimizing Income inequality distribution 10.Reemphasizing the huge asymmetry that has unfolded in the global economy’s current account balances

24 24 TRANSFORM’s approach Regional Development Transformative Use Regional Innovation Culture Regional Development Transformative Use Regional Development Regional Innovation Culture Meanings Behaviours Outcomes Transformative Use of technology Transformational Potential of R&D-tech Transformational Needs of the region

25 2 nd phase: Transform via Hi- Tech Exploiting the trans-formational potential of R&D – Hi-Tech network creation, enabling learning & innovation, participation & empowerment 1 st phase: Adopt Hi-Tech Exploiting the efficiency potential of R&D – Hi-Tech automation, ICT, Bio-Tech, Nano-tech,, etc. Individuals Firms Public sector R&D – HI-Tech d i f f u s i o n p r o c e s s What is “transformative”? S T E P 1 S T E P 2

26 What is “transformative”? The Adoption Question: What have you got? – Technology as asset (something that you have) – Technology Adoption Model (technological determinism) – Lots of quantitative research – Uneven take up The Behavioural Question: What do you do with it? – Technology as process (something that you do) – Business Process Engineering (sociotechnical models) – Some Quantitative research (some at regional level) – Problems of execution in less favoured regions The Innovation Culture Question: What does it mean? – Social Shaping/Construction of Technology – Very little quantitative research (very little geography)

27 Peningkatan Social Capital Otomatis Meningkatkan Kapasitas Creating Value

28 TWO TYPES OF KNOWLEDGE Tacit Knowledge (Subjective) Explicit Knowledge (Objective) Knowledge of experience (body) Simultaneous knowledge (here and now) Analog knowledge (practice) Knowledge of rationality (mind) Sequential knowledge (there and them) Digital knowledge (theory) Nonaka and Hirotaka, The Knowledge Creating Company, 1995

29 CONTENTS OF KNOWLEDGE CREATED BY FOUR MODES (Socialization) SYMPATHIZED KNOWLEDGE (Externalization) CONCEPTUAL KNOWLEDGE (Internalization) OPERATIONAL KNOWLEDGE (Combination) SYSTEMIC KNOWLEDGE Tacit Knowledge Explicit Knowledge from to Tacit Knowledge Explicit Knowledge

30 Spiral of Organizational Knowledge Creation Explisit knowledge Tacit knowledge Epistemological dimension Epistemological dimension Knowledge level IndividualGroupOrganizationInter- Organization Combination Externalization Internalization Socialization

31 Five-Phase Model of the Organizational Knowledge- Creation Process Enabling Condition Interaction Autonomy Fluctuation/ Creative chaos Redundancy Requisite variety Tacit knowledge in organization Explicit knowledge in organization Sharing tacit knowledge Creating concept Justifying concept Building an Archetype Cross- leveling knowledge SocializationExternalizationCombination Internalization Market From collaborating organization Tacit knowledge Internalization by users From users Explicit knowledge as advertisements, patents, product and/or services

32 PERAN IPTEK MEMBANGUN KAPASITAS KEARIFAN LOKAL SEBAGAI KOMPETENSI INTI UNTUK BERSAING; ADAPTASI KONSEP DAYA SAING SAKASAKTI

33 Nasional Regional Propinsi Kabupaten PerusahaanSektorEkonomi Satu Kabupaten Satu Kompetensi Inti Industri SAKA SAKTI Membangun Indonesia In-Corporate

34 Sistem Informasi Geografis Uji Syarat Unggulan: 1.Akses Pasar 2.Kontribusi Stakeholder 3.Barrier to Immitation Potensi dan Eksisting Sumberdaya (analisis pemetaan aset regional) (Analisa statistik deskriptif clustering) Apa/ berapa/ dimana aset dan per’produk’an utama (kompetensi inti) Fine tune local competency Value Chain (main activities): 1.Inbound Logistics 2.Manufacturing 3. Outbound Logistics Valuating its industrial process Valuating its multiplier effect Investigasi proses industrialisasi mis. I-O model) Expert Choise/scoring analysis Strategic Routing 1.Core industries 2.Augment Industries Investigasi business linkages and Value Added Expert Choice/ Scoring analysis + EVA (Evaluation Value Added) ….. Slide berikutnya

35 POPIS 1.Physical Capital 2.Organization Capital 3.Power Capital 4.Intellectual Capital 5.Social Capital Valuating its Capacity Studi kelayakan Recana Strategis dan program Monitoring dan evaluasi Kajian kemungkinan implementasi dan rancangan monitoring & evaluasi Gap analysis (hasil penilaian VC&SR) Expert choice/ scoring analysis Scenario analysis Teknik Deplhi IFA dan EFA Matching ESPQ Implementing Trading House Business Plan and regulating its operating Good Corporate Governance & Balance Score Card approach; inisiatif bisa dari pemda dan kepemilikan terbuka Implementasi SAKASAKTI dengan mengaktifasi Trading House Daerah

36 Strategi, struktur Perusahaan dan Pesaing Industri-industri pendukung dan terkait Kondisi Permintaan Kondisi Faktor Berupa Klaster (bukan industri) Kuantitas dan kualitas faktor serta biaya Pelanggan lokal yang istimewa dan sangat menuntut Konteks lokalitas; pemberdayaan investasi dan peningkatan yang terus menerus Sektor Perdagangan Sektor Terkait Institusi Pendukung Intermediate suppliers Capital good suppliers Producer services Consultants Contract R&D Similar technologies Share pool of labor Similar strategies Education (univ, colleges) Training (cc’s) R&D (univ, fed labs) Development agencies Regulatory agencies

37 Core Activities Entrepreneurship Business domain. Strategic direction. Product(s) Primary Activities Base Support Activities Inbound Logistics Operations Outbound Logistics Marketing & Sales Service Procurement Human Resource Management Management Information System R & D Managerial Infrastructure Managerial Resources Technology System/Techno-economic Paradigm Margin

38 THE ROOT OF COMPETITIVENESS BISNIS 1BISNIS 2BISNIS 3BISNIS 4 PRODUK INTI 1 PRODUK INTI 2 KOMPETENSI KABUPATEN 1 KOMPETENSI KABUPATEN 2 KOMPETENSI KABUPATEN 3 KOMPETENSI KABUPATEN 4 THE ROOT OF COMPETITIVENESS ATASE PERDAGANGAN TRADING HOUSE ITPC ATASE PERDAGANGAN TRADING HOUSE ITPC ATASE PERDAGANGAN TRADING HOUSE ITPC 321 ATASE PERDAGANGAN TRADING HOUSE ITPC Produk akhir

39 DAYA SAINGSTRATEGI FAKTOR KUNCI KEBERHASILAN INDUSTRI KAPABILITAS ORGANISASI KOMPETENSI TANGIBLEINTANGIBLESDM FISIKKEUANGANTEKNOLOGIREPUTASIBUDAYAKETRAMPILAN & PENGETAHUAN KHUSUS KOMUNIKASI & INTERAKTIF MOTIVASI COLLECTIVE LEARNING SYARAT :AKSES KE PASAR TIDAK MUDAH DITIRU KONTRIBUSI KE STAKE HOLDER

40 WINNING STRATEGIES THROUGH VALUE CREATION Competitive Strategy Competitive Advantage Distinctive Competencies Generic Strategy Organizational Capabilities Competitive Position Resource Available: Tangibles, Intangibles, HR Market Attractiveness Resource Based StrategyMarket Based Strategy

41 Potensi Kompetensi Inti Daerah ?? Model Daya Saing Daerah Model Pengembangan SAKASAKTI Proses Inovasi Produk Produk Inti Daerah dan turunannya Kebijakan Strategis KMNRT Kebijakan Strategis In & dag Kebijakan Strategis Pendidikan- (Kompetensi Lokal)- Institusi Pendidikan Balitbangda Forum Daya Saing Daerah Kebutuhan Pasar Nilai Pasar Tacit + Explisit Knowledge (local genius) Tacit + Explisit Knowledge

42 Themes Export processing zones Tax free / tax incentives Land leases Special industrial parks Actors Local Government Private sector Commercial banks FOSTERING BUSINESS PARTNERSHIPS Manufacturing Subcontracting Legislation Rules, etc. Financing Research Education Training Business Support Services Infrastructur e Provision Special incentives Themes Actors Contractual obligations Private sector Manufacturing process Chambers of commerce Raw materials Packaging Pre/post sales initiatives Themes Policy systems Legislation, Acts Standards, ISO provisions Awards, fees, fines Actors Local government Regional/National Gov. Universities Research Institutions Themes Tax incentives Special loans Low-interest loans Microfinance Subsidies and grant Actors Local Gov. Commercial banks Central bank Financial Regulatory body Themes Information management Market research Tech. transfer (offers / requests) Information campaigns Consumer education Actors Chamber of commerce NGO’s Local Gov. Foreign Offices Embassies ThemesActors On-the-job trainingNGO’s Tech. demo parksLocal Gov. Training programmesPrivate industry ResearchResearch Institutions University coursesUniversities Short-term courses Identification of best/good practices Themes Transportation Supply of electricity / gas Actors Local Gov. Private sector Urban planners Commercial banks Multilateral institutions

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44 INDUSTRI AGRI TERINTEGRASI POHON SINGKONG IKAN GURAME SAPI Tepung Tulang & Darah Buangan Padat & Cair Pupuk Kandang Daun & Buangan Padat Rotasi KACANG Pupuk Kandang Daun & Buangan Padat

45 kapasitas produksi Fase 1Fase 2Fase 3 Fase 4Fase 5 A B1 B2 C D Indirect export Direct export kapasitas ekspor Analisa Kompetensi Inti Daerah ????? Internal Growth Strategy Expansion Diversification External Growth Strategy Expansion - Merger Diversification - Sub-contracting Joint Venture FS Spin-off usul ? Korporat sudah mulai matang/ dewasa (tahap remaja)  grant>= investasi Tahap awal (start- up) perlu banyak bantuan khususnya dari pemerintah (tahap “bayi-balita”)  grant> investasi Korporat sudah matang/ dewasa (tahap dewasa)  grant>= investasi Sudah tua perlu peremajaan dan inovasi (Tahap peremajaan)  grant>= investasi

46 Dinamika Perubahan Global (Sectors of the Economy) Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary Time Percent of Workforce

47 Ketidakpastian Pre-determined (bisa diduga) Interpretasi 1 Interpretasi 2 Interpretasi 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Implikasi 1 Implikasi 2 Implikasi 3 Kompetensi & strategi/ kebijakan yang dibangun saat ini Model Scenario Planning ?

48 Identifikasi isu pokok / kebijakan Key forces dalam lingkungan lokal Driving forces Menilai urutan dari aspek pentingnya dan ketidakpastian Menetapkan logika skenario Mengkaji skenario terpilih Implikasi strategi Memilih indikator utama Masukan bagi skebario dari konsultan Menyetujui rencana implementasi Publikasi skenario Identifikasi Potensi Daerah Studi Value Chain Studi Strategic Routing Menilai Kelayakan Model Kompetensi Inti Daya Saing Daerah Kebijakan Penataan Ulang (implementasi)

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50 Terima Kasih Dan Semoga Bermanfaat


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