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ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Pertemuan 9 -mupo- ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Pertemuan 9 -mupo- Mata kuliah: F0922 - Pengantar Analisis Pendapatan.

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Presentasi berjudul: "ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Pertemuan 9 -mupo- ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Pertemuan 9 -mupo- Mata kuliah: F0922 - Pengantar Analisis Pendapatan."— Transcript presentasi:

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2 ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Pertemuan 9 -mupo- ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Pertemuan 9 -mupo- Mata kuliah: F Pengantar Analisis Pendapatan Tetap Dan Ekuitas Tahun: 2010

3 ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Materi : 1. Review: Market/Macro Economy analysis 2. Kasus : mengenai Market Analysis

4 Bina Nusantara University 4 1. Market Analysis 1. Market Analysis Dalam penilaian suatu Investasi, dikenal Top down/three step Dalam penilaian suatu Investasi, dikenal Top down/three step appraoch, antara lain dikenal Market Analysis/Macro Economic appraoch, antara lain dikenal Market Analysis/Macro Economic Analysis. Analysis. 1.1 Framework of Analysis: 1.1 Framework of Analysis: Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis Approach to Fundamental Analysis: Approach to Fundamental Analysis: - Domestic and global economic analysis - Domestic and global economic analysis - Industry analysis - Industry analysis - Company analysis - Company analysis Why use the top-down approach? Why use the top-down approach?

5 Market Analysis (cont’) Market Analysis (cont’) 1.2 Global Economic Considerations 1.2 Global Economic Considerations Performance in countries and regions is highly variable Performance in countries and regions is highly variable Political risk Political risk Exchange rate risk Exchange rate risk SalesSales ProfitsProfits Stock returnsStock returns 1.3 Key Economic Variables Gross domestic product Gross domestic product Unemployment rates Unemployment rates Interest rates & inflation Interest rates & inflation Budget deficit Budget deficit Consumer sentiment Consumer sentiment

6 Market Analysis (cont’) Market Analysis (cont’) 1.4 Demand Shocks 1.4 Demand Shocks Demand shock - an event that affects demand for goods and Demand shock - an event that affects demand for goods and services in the economy. services in the economy Tax rate cut Tax rate cut Increases in government spending Increases in government spending 1.5 Supply Shocks Supply shock - an event that influences production capacity Supply shock - an event that influences production capacity or production costs. or production costs Commodity price changes Commodity price changes Educational level of economic participants Educational level of economic participants 1.6 Government Policy Fiscal Policy- government spending and taxing actions Fiscal Policy- government spending and taxing actions. - Direct policy - Direct policy - Slowly implemented - Slowly implemented

7 Government Policy (cont’) Government Policy (cont’) Monetary Policy - manipulation of the money supply Monetary Policy - manipulation of the money supply to influence economic activity. to influence economic activity. - Initial & feedback effects - Tools of monetary policy - Tools of monetary policy o Open market operations o Discount rate o Reserve requirements 1.7 Cyclical Indicators 1.7 Cyclical Indicators Leading Indicators - tend to rise and fall in advance of Leading Indicators - tend to rise and fall in advance of the economy. the economy. Examples: Examples: - Avg. weekly hours of production workers - Avg. weekly hours of production workers - Stock Prices - Stock Prices

8 Cyclical Indicators (cont’) Coincident Indicators- indicators that tend to change Coincident Indicators- indicators that tend to change directly with the economy. directly with the economy. Examples: Examples: Industrial productionIndustrial production Manufacturing and trade salesManufacturing and trade sales Lagging Indicators- indicators that tend to follow the Lagging Indicators- indicators that tend to follow the lag economic performance. lag economic performance. Examples: Examples: Ratio of trade inventories to salesRatio of trade inventories to sales Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal incomeRatio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income

9 2. Kasus : Market Analysis 2. Kasus : Market Analysis Data: 31 Desember 2009 Data: 31 Desember Gross Domestic Product naik dari Gross Domestic Product naik dari 2008 US Dollar 2,357 menjadi US Dollar 2,724 per kapita US Dollar 2,357 menjadi US Dollar 2,724 per kapita - Pertumbuhan ekonomi 6,5%, sesuai target - Pertumbuhan ekonomi 6,5%, sesuai target - Interest rate turun menjadi 6,5%, awal tahun 9,5% - Interest rate turun menjadi 6,5%, awal tahun 9,5% - IHSG mencapai nilai tertinggi diakhir tahun Rp 2,500 - IHSG mencapai nilai tertinggi diakhir tahun Rp 2,500 - Kurs US Dollar 9,450 awal tahun Rp 11, Kurs US Dollar 9,450 awal tahun Rp 11, Minyak mentah naik menjadi US$ 79 per barel, APBN - Minyak mentah naik menjadi US$ 79 per barel, APBN meperhitungkan rat-rat tahun 2009 US$ 70 per barel meperhitungkan rat-rat tahun 2009 US$ 70 per barel - Situasi politik agak memanas - Situasi politik agak memanas - Bencana alam 2009 cukup banyak, dan 2010 BMG diperkirakan - Bencana alam 2009 cukup banyak, dan 2010 BMG diperkirakan cuaca kurang bagus cuaca kurang bagus Tanggapi data di atas apakah Saudara optimis atau pessimis dengan Tanggapi data di atas apakah Saudara optimis atau pessimis dengan keadaan di atas, jelaskan dengan argumen Saudara! keadaan di atas, jelaskan dengan argumen Saudara!


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