Unemployment. 2 Supply and Demand Model 3 Supply - Demand Model Wage Employment Supply Demand Rp 10 5 Rp 15 E D’ S’ 37 Unemployment = 4.

Presentasi berjudul: "Unemployment. 2 Supply and Demand Model 3 Supply - Demand Model Wage Employment Supply Demand Rp 10 5 Rp 15 E D’ S’ 37 Unemployment = 4."— Transcript presentasi:

1 Unemployment

2 2 Supply and Demand Model

3 3 Supply - Demand Model Wage Employment Supply Demand Rp 10 5 Rp 15 E D’ S’ 37 Unemployment = 4

4 4 Supply Demand Model Firm membayar upah yang lebih tinggi dari tingkat equilibrium sehingga terjadi excess supply TK. Tingkat upah bersifat “sticky” sehingga tidak dapat diatur menuju tingkat upah equilibrium.

5 5 Pengangguran di Indonesia (Persen)

6 TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT 6

7 7 Frictional Unemployment Frictional unemployment arises because both workers and firms need time to alocate each other and to digest the information about the value of the job match.

8 8 Frictional Unemployment Bukan merupakan permasalahan utama dalam perekonomian

9 9 Solusi : Menyediakan informasi kesempatan kerja bagi TK. Menyediakan informasi pencari kerja bagi perusahaan. KATALISATOR PASAR KERJA Frictional Unemployment

10 10 Imbalance between Labor Supply and Labor Demand The kinds of persons looking for work do not “fit” the jobs available THE REAL PROBLEM IS SKILL Structural Unemployment

11 11 Structural Unemployment Solusi : Peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia PENDIDIKAN

12 12 Cyclical Unemployment Cyclical unemployment arises because of the economy has moved into a recession

13 13 Cyclical Unemployment

14 14 Cyclical Unemployment To reduce cyclical unemployment, Government will have to stimulate aggregate demand and reestablish market equilibrium at the sticky wage

15 15 Unemployment Data

16 16 Penganggur Terbuka Nasional Menurut Propinsi dan Pendidikan (Februari 2012)

17 17 Penganggur Terbuka Nasional Menurut Pendidikan dan Kategori (Februari 2012) 1. Mencari pekerjaan, 2. Mempersiapkan usaha, 3. Tidak mencari pekerjaan, 4. Sudah punya pekerjaan tapi belum mulai bekerja

18 18 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY EDUCATION USA 1970 -2002

19 19 WORLD UNEMPLOYMENT MAP 2012

20 20 The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

21 21 The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Employed ( E worker) Unemployed ( U wokers) Job loser ( l x E ) Job finders ( h x U ) l  probability of losing a job h  probability of finding a job

22 22 Long-run equilibrium  unemployment rate konstan, sehingga dalam kondisi steady- state : l E = h U (Persamaan 1) The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

23 23 Labor Force (LF) terdiri dari employed dan unemployed, maka LF = E + U (Persamaan 2) The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

24 24 Subtitusi Persamaan 1 & 2 : l (LF – U) = h U (Persamaan 3) The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

25 25 Unemployment Rate : The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment The Natural Rate of Unemployment

26 26 Contoh : probabilitas lose jobs 0,01 dan probabilitas find jobs 0,1 ; maka unemployment rate = The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

27 27 The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Joseph Ritter : Labor Market Dynamics Employed Unemployed 1.8 Million Out of Labor Force 1.5 Million 3.0 Million 2.0 Million 3.2 Million 1.7 Million 119.2 Million 8.9 Million 65.2 Million

28 28 The Wage Offer Distribution

29 29 Asumsi : TK akan selalu mencari perkerjaan yang lebih baik. The wage offer distribution menggambarkan distribusi frekuensi dari berbagai kesempatan kerja untuk unemployed worker di labor market. The Wage Offer Distribution

30 30 Trade off : semakin lama mencari pekerjaan yang lebih baik, semakin besar kesempatan mendapat gaji lebih tinggi dan semakin besar biaya mencari kerja. The Wage Offer Distribution

31 31 The Wage Offer Distribution Wage Frequency $ 5000 $8000$ 22000$ 25000 Kesempatan mendapat perkerjaan lebih besar

32 32 The Asking Wage

33 33 Tingkat upah yang menentukan unemployed worker untuk menerima atau menolak tawaran kerja. Asking wage yang rendah menyebabkan cepat mendapatkan kerja, demikian sebaliknya. The Asking Wage

34 34 Marginal Cost (MC) semakin tinggi karena merupakan perpaduan antara direct cost (misal : transportasi) dan opportunity cost karena berpindah firm. Marginal Revenue merupakan marginal gain dari better job. The Asking Wage

35 35 The Determination of The Asking Wage Wage offer at hand Dollars $10$ 20 MC MR MR > MC MR < MC Asking Wage

36 36 The Wage Curve

37 37 The Wage Curve Blanchflower & Oswald : semakin tinggi unemployment rate maka upah cenderung semakin rendah

38 38 Wage Unemployment Rate...Semakin tinggi unemployment rate maka upah cenderung semakin rendah karena...?? A B UAUA UBUB WAWA WBWB

39 39 The Phillips Curve

40 40 The Phillips Curve Diperkenalkan : W.H. Phillips (1958) tentang negative correlation antara tingkat inflasi dan tingkat penganguran di Inggris periode 1861-1957

41 41 Inflasi Unemployment Rate 5 0 A Perekonomian konstan sehingga asking wage konstan Expansionary Policy sehingga inflasi naik dan pengangguran turun.. B 7 3 Labor sadar upah tidak cukup sehingga asking wage dan pengangguran kembali ke posisi semula namun inflasi tetap... C Long run phillips curve The Phillips Curve

42 42 The Phillips Curve (USA)

43 43 Terima kasih...