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Chapter 13 Sistem Pendukung Keputusan MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell Copyright 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 13-1.

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Presentasi berjudul: "Chapter 13 Sistem Pendukung Keputusan MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell Copyright 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 13-1."— Transcript presentasi:

1 Chapter 13 Sistem Pendukung Keputusan MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell Copyright 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 13-1

2 Jenis Keputusan (Simon’s) n Keputusan terprogram –repetitive and routine –Aturan/procedure terdefinisi n Keputusan tak terprogram –Uraian dan tak terstruktur –Tak ada metode langsung menanganinya n Berada pada ujung suatu kesatuan 13-2

3 Simon’s Problem Solving Phases n Intelligence – Amati lingkungan, cari kondisi yg perlu diperbaiki n Design – Menemukan, mengembangkan dan analisis alternatif n Choice – Seleksi rangkaian tindakan dari beberapa alternatif yg tersdia n Review – Menilai pilihan yang lalu 13-3

4 Definitions of a Decision Support System (DSS) General definition - a system providing both problem-solving and communications capabilities for semistructured problems Specific definition - a system that supports a single manager or a relatively small group of managers working as a problem-solving team in the solution of a semistructured problem by providing information or making suggestions concerning specific decisions. 13-4

5 The DSS Concept n Gorry and Scott Morton memakai istilah ‘DSS’ pada 1971, 10 tahun setelah MIS dipopulerkan n Dasarnya adalah struktur masalah –Masalah terstruktur adalah yang dapat ditangani dengan algorithms and decision rules –Masalah tidak terstruktur sama sekali tidak memiliki struktur 3 tahap Simon –Semistructured mengandung terstruktur dan tidak terstruktur 13-5

6 Degree of problemstructure The Gorry and Scott Morton Grid Management levels Structured Structured Semistructured Unstructured Unstructured Operational control controlManagement Strategicplanning Accounts receivable Order entry Inventory control Budget analysis-- engineered costs Short-term forecasting Tanker fleet mix Warehouse and factory location Production scheduling Cash management PERT/COST systems Variance analysis-- overall budget Budget preparation Sales and production Mergers and acquisitions New product planning R&D planning 13-6

7 Alter’s DSS Types n Kerangka DSS Steven Alter(1976) –Taksonomi 6 jenis DSS –Berdasarkan survai pada 56 DSS n Pengklasifikasian DSS berdasar “tingkat dukungan terhadap pengambilan keputusan” 13-7

8 Levels of Alter’s DSSs n Level of problem-solving support from lowest to highest –Mengambil elemen-2 informasi –Menganalisa emua file –Menyiapkan report dari berbagai file –Memperkirakan akibat keputusan –Mengusulkan keputusan –Membuat keputusan 13-8

9 Importance of Alter’s Study n Didukung oleh konsep mengembangkan sistem utk menangani keputusan tertentu n Menjelaskan bahwa DSS tidak terbatas pada pendekatan yang lebih eksotik daripada query database. 13-9

10 Retrieve information elements Analyze entire files Prepare reports from multiple files Estimate decision consequen- ces Propose decisions Degree of problem solving support Degree of complexity of the problem-solving system LittleMuch Alter’s DSS Types Make decisions 13-10

11 Three DSS Objectives 1. Membantu manajer membuat keputusan untuk masalah semiterstruktur 2. Mendukung penilaian oleh manajer bukan mengganti tugas mereka 3. Meningkatkan efektifitas keputusan Based on studies of Keen and Scott-Morton 13-11

12 GDSS software MathematicalModels Other group members group members Database GDSSsoftware Environment Individual problem problem solvers solvers Decision support system Environment Environment Legend : DataInformation Communication A DSS Model Reportwritingsoftware 13-12

13 Database Contents n Memakai tiga jenis software –S/W report writer »Special reports »Periodic reports »DBMS –Model matematika »Simulasi »Bahasa pemodelan khusus –Groupware atau GDSS 13-13

14 Group Decision Support Systems n Sistem berbasis komputer mendukung kelompokdalam tugas-2 nya dan membantu menghubungkan dengan lingkungannya. n Dipakai dalam problem solving n Bidang-2 yang berhubungan : –Electronic meeting system (EMS) –Computer-supported cooperative work (CSCW) –Group support system (GSS) –Groupware 13-14

15 How GDSS Contributes to Problem Solving n Meningkatkan komunikasi n Memungkinkan diskusi n Mengurangi waktu 13-15

16 User Interface n User entri : –Instructions –Information n Sistem menyediakan: –Solutions –Explanations of »Questions »Problem solutions } Menus, commands, natural language, GUI 13-16

17 Knowledge Base n Description of problem domain n Rules –Knowledge representation technique –‘IF:THEN’ logic –Networks of rules »Lowest levels provide evidence »Top levels produce 1 or more conclusions »Conclusion is called a Goal variable

18 Evidence Conclusion Evidence Conclusion A Rule Set That Produces One Final Conclusion 13-18

19 Rule Selection n Pemilihan aturan yang paling efisien untuk memecahkan masalah yang paling sulit n Bebrapa goal dapat dicapai dengan hanya sejumlah aturan; 13-19

20 Inference Engine n Memakai knowledge based dengan suatu urutan n Dua pendekatan menggunakan rules –1. Forward reasoning (data driven) –2. Reverse reasoning (goal driven) 13-20

21 Forward Reasoning (Forward Chaining) n Rule is evaluated as: –(1) true, (2) false, (3) unknown n Rule evaluation is an iterative process n When no more rules can fire, the reasoning process stops even if a goal has not been reached Start with inputs and work to solution 13-21

22 Rule 1 Rule 3 Rule 3 Rule 2 Rule 2 Rule 4 Rule 4 Rule 5 Rule 5 Rule 6 Rule 6 Rule 7 Rule 7 Rule 8 Rule 8 Rule 9 Rule 9 Rule 10 Rule 10 Rule 11 Rule 11 Rule 12 IF A THEN B IF C THEN D IF M THEN E IF K THEN F IF G THEN H IF I THEN J IF B OR D THEN K IF E THEN L IF K AND L THEN N IF M THEN O IF N OR O THEN P F IF (F AND H) OR J THEN M IF (F AND H) OR J THEN M The Forward ReasoningProcess T T T T T T T T T F T Legend: First pass Second pass Third pass 13-22

23 Reverse Reasoning Steps (Backward Chaining) ¶ Divide problem into subproblems · Try to solve one subproblem ¸ Then try another Start with solution and work back to inputs 13-23

24 T Rule 1 Rule 2 Rule 3 Rule 9 Rule 11 Legend: Problems to be solved Step 4 Step 3 Step 2 Step 1 Step 5 IF A THEN B IF B OR D THEN K IF K AND L THEN N IF N OR O THEN P IF C THEN D IF M THEN E IF E THEN L IF (F AND H) OR J THEN M IF M THEN O IF M THEN O T The First Five Problems Are Identified Rule 7 Rule 10 Rule 12 Rule

25 If K Then F Legend: Problems to be solved If G Then H If I Then J If M Then O Step 8 Step 9 Step 7Step 6 Rule 4 Rule 5 Rule 11 Rule 6 T IF (F And H) Or J Then M T Rule 9 T T Rule 12 T If N Or O Then P The Next Four Problems Are Identified 13-25

26 Forward Versus Reverse Reasoning n Reverse reasoning lebih cepat n Reverse reasoning lebih cocok untuk beberapa kondisi –Jika variabel sasarannya banyak –Jika banyak rules –Semua rules tidak memerlukan penjelasan prosesnya dalam mencapai sebuah solusi 13-26

27 Development Engine n Programming languages –Lisp –Prolog n Expert system shells –Ready made processor that can be tailored to a particular problem domain n Case-based reasoning (CBR) n Decision tree 13-27

28 Expert System Disadvantages n Can’t handle inconsistent knowledge n Can’t apply judgment or intuition 13-28

29 Keys to Successful ES Development n Coordinate ES development with strategic planning n Clearly define problem to be solved and understand problem domain n Pay particular attention to ethical and legal feasibility of proposed system n Understand users’ concerns and expectations concerning system n Employ management techniques designed to retain developers 13-29

30 The Human Brain n Neuron -- the information processor –Input -- dendrites –Processing -- soma –Output -- axon n Neurons are connected by the synapse 13-30

31 Soma (processor ) Axon Synapse Dendrites (input) Axonal Paths (output) Simple Biological Neurons 13-31


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