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STUDI KELAYAKAN INVESTASI BIDANG REAL ESTATE ( Investment Feasibility Study in Real Estate ) Pengajar : Ir. Irwan Nurhadi.

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Presentasi berjudul: "STUDI KELAYAKAN INVESTASI BIDANG REAL ESTATE ( Investment Feasibility Study in Real Estate ) Pengajar : Ir. Irwan Nurhadi."— Transcript presentasi:

1 STUDI KELAYAKAN INVESTASI BIDANG REAL ESTATE ( Investment Feasibility Study in Real Estate ) Pengajar : Ir. Irwan Nurhadi SE, MM ,MBA Program : MTP -Untar

2 Scope Financial Management : I
Scope Financial Management : I.Sumber Dana ( Source of Fund ) – Internal & External a. Macam – Sumber dana & bagaimana mendapatkannya FINANCIAL b. Persyaratan apa saja untuk mendapatkannya c. Kendala- kendala apa saja untuk mendapatkannya DECISION II. Penggunaan dana / alokasi dana ( Usage of Fund ) a. Kofigurasi /Struktur Biaya b. Kreteria Investasi dengan Methodenya INVESTMENT c. Cashflow suatu Investasi DECISION III. Mengukur Profitabilitas : a. BEP BES b. Ratio Profitability : Profit Margin, ROI -DUPONT Analysis.

3 I. Pengertian - pengertian : Pengetian dan manfaat Study Kelayakan Investasi : Analysis proforma dari expexted income , expenses dan profitabilitas, dari suatu proposal pengembangan Real estate , yang dikaitkan dengan kondisi pasar ,lokasi ,kondisi ekonomi sekarang dan kemudian hari ,dan bermanfaat dalam memenuhi salah satu dokumen untuk mendapatkan pinjaman dana utk suatu pengembangan proyek Sedangkan Proses Investasi suatu Real estate adalah seperti tergambar dalam Gambar :1

4 TYPE OF FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS Feasibility analysis The feasibility of a project can be ascertained in terms of technical factors economic factors, or both. A feasibility study is documented with a report showing all the ramification of the project. Technical Feasibility. Technical feasibility refers to the ability of the process to take advantage of the current state of the technology in pursuing further improvement. The technical capability of the personnel as well as the capability of the available technology should be considered. Managerial Feasibility. Managerial feasibility involves the capability of the infrastructure of a process to achieve and sustain process improvement. Management support, employee involvement, and commitment are key element required to ascertain managerial feasibility. Economic Feasibility. This involves the feasibility of the proposed project to generate economic benefits. A benefit – cost analysis and a breakeven analysis are important aspects of evaluating the economic feasibility of new industrial projects. The tangible and intangible aspects of a projects should be translated into economic terms to facilitate a consistent basis for evaluation.

5 Financial Feasibility
Financial Feasibility. Financial feasibility should be distinguished from economic feasibility. Financial feasibility involves the capability of the project organization to raise the appropriate funds needed to implement the proposed project. Project financing can be a mayor obstacle in large multiparty project because of the level of capital required. loan availability, credit worthiness, equity, and loan schedule are important aspects of financial feasibility analysis. Cultural Feasibility. Cultural feasibility deals with the compatibility of the proposed project with the cultural setup of the project environment. In labour intensive project, planned function must be integrated with the local cultural practices and beliefs. For example, religious beliefs may influence what an individual is willing to do or not do.

6 Social Feasibility. Social feasibility addresses the influences that a proposed project may have on the social system in the project environment. The ambient social structure may be such that certain categories of workers may be in short supply or nonexistent. The effect of the project on the social status of the project participants must be assessed to ensure compatibility. it should be recognized that workers in certain industries may have certain status symbols within the society. Safety Feasibility. Safety feasibility is another important aspect that should be considered in project planning. Safety feasibility refers to an analysis of whether the project is capable of being implemented and operated safely with minimal adverse effects on the environment. Unfortunately, environmental impact assessment is often not adequately addresses in complex project. As an example, the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S. Canada, and Mexico was temporarily suspended in 1993 because of the legal consideration of the potential environmental impacts of the project to be undertaken under the agreement.

7 Political Feasibility
Political Feasibility. A politically feasible may be referred to as a “ politically correct project “. Political consideration often dictate the direction for a proposed project. This is particularly true for large projects with national visibility that may have significant government inputs and political implications. For example, political necessity may be a source of support for a project regardless of the project’s merits. On the other hand, worthy project may face insurmountable opposition simply because of political factors. Political feasibility analysis requires an evaluation of the compatibility of project goals with the prevailing goals of the political system.

8 SCOPE OF FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS Scope of Feasibility Analysis
SCOPE OF FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS Scope of Feasibility Analysis. In general terms, the element of a feasibility analysis for a project should cover the following items : 1.Need Analysis. This indicates a recognition of a need for the project. The need may affect the organization itself, another organization, the public, or the government. A preliminary study is then conducted to confirm and evaluate the need. A proposal of how the need may be satisfied is then made. pertinent questions that should be asked include : Is the need significant enough to justify the proposed project ? Will the need still exist by the time the project is completed ? What are the alternate means of satisfying the need ? What are the economic. social, environmental, and political impacts of the need ?

9 2. Process Work. This is the preliminary analysis done determine what will be required to satisfy the need. The work may be performed by a consultant who is an expert in the project field. The preliminary study often involves system models or prototypes. For technology – oriented project, artist’s conception and scaled – down models may be used for illustrating the general characteristics of a process. A simulation of the proposed system can be carried out to predict the outcome before the actual project starts Engineering and Design. This involves a detailed study of the proposed project. Written quotations are obtained from suppliers and subcontractors as needed. Technology capabilities are evaluated as needed. Product design, if needed, should be done at this stage.

10 4. Cost Estimate. This involves estimating project cost to an acceptable level of accuracy. Levels of around – 5% to + 15% are common at this level of a project plan. Both the initial and operating costs are included in the cost estimation. Estimates of capital investment and of recurring and nonrecurring costs should also be contained in the cost estimate document. Sensitivity analysis can be carried out on the estimated cost values to see how sensitive the project plan is to the estimated cost values. 5. Financial Analysis. This involves an analysis of the cash flow profile of the project. The analysis should consider rates of return, inflation, sources of capital, payback periods, breakeven point, residual values, and sensitivity. This is a capital analysis since it determines whether or not and when funds will be available to the project. The project cash flow profile helps to support the economic and financial feasibility of the project. The project cash flow profile helps to support the economic and financial feasibility of the project.

11 6. Project Impacts. This portion of the feasibility study provides an assessment of the impact of the proposed project. Environmental, social, cultural, political, and economic impacts may be some of the factors that will determine how a project is perceived by the public. The value added potential of the project should also be assessed. A value added tax may be assessed based on the price of product and the cost of the raw material used in making the product. The tax so collected may be viewed as a contribution to government coffers. 7.Conclusions and Recommendations. The feasibility study should end with the overall outcome of the project analysis. This may indicate an endorsement or disapproval of the project. Recommendations on what should be done should be include in this section of the feasibility study report.

12 Stages of FS : Market Study :A study of the market variables which influences the supply of and demand for real estate ( this is broadest possible form of analysis and it encompasses all other of demand oriented real estate studies ) Marketability Study : A narrowly defined study to determine the conditions under which a specific property can be sold. The key conclusions relate to both price and time required to sell. A Feasibility Study : A study to determine the probability that a specific real estate proposal will meet the objectives of the developer and or investor. Highest and Best uses study : A study to determine that use among other possible and legal alternatives uses which result in the higher land value for a specific site.

13 Proses Investasi suatu Real estate adalah : Langkah 1 :Identifikasi Tujuan , Sasaran dan Batasan Investasi : Kekayaan Perusahaan, Risk – Return Langkah 2 : Analisis Iklim Investasi dan Kondisi Pasar : -Lingkungan- Pasar , Perijinan , Keuangan , Pajak. Langkah 3 : Analisis Pengembangan Keuangan : - Keputusan Operasi Keputusan Keuangan ( Pajak2-PPh,PPn) Keputusan penyesuaian Langkah 4 : Aplikasi Kreteria Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi : Methode Rules of Thumb , Discounted Cash Flow , Traditional Valuation . Langkah 5 : Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi

14 Development Process & Management : Dalam kegiatan real estate kita perlu memperhatikan development process ( proses pengembangan ) dengan langkah2 sbb: Phase Planning and Initiation Phase Feasibility Phase Commitment Phase Construction Phase Opreration & Maintainance

15 Pihak- pihak yang Terkait ( Participating Bodies – Development Management Coordinating Activities :

16 Matematika Investasi untuk F-S : Dasar perhitungan : Time Value of Money , yang artinya nilai sekarang lebih berharga dari nilai yang akan datang . A. Compound Value Method : ( Bunga berbunga) 1. Compound Future Sums : Formula : FV = PV ( i ) n Present Value of Future Sums : Formula : PV = FV ( i ) -n

17 3 . Constant Payment Annuities : for Present Value : i ( 1+ i ) n Formula : A = PV [ ] ( uniform Capital Recovery ) ( 1 + i ) n PV = A [ ( 1 + i ) n ] ( uniform PV ) i ( 1 + i ) n Future Value : ( 1 + i ) n Formula : FV = A [ ] i i A = FV [ ] ( uniform Sinking Fund) ( 1 + i ) n Note : A = Annual Payment PV = Present Value FV = Future Value i = interest rate n = period of time ( year )

18 Mekanisme Perhitungan Bunga : A. Compund Value ( Bunga Berbunga ) B
Mekanisme Perhitungan Bunga : A. Compund Value ( Bunga Berbunga ) B . Sliding rate : ( bunga menurun ) ( lihat tabel - B ) C . Flat rate : ( bunga datar ) . (lihat tabel - C ) D . Loan Amortization Schedule : ( Skedule amortisasi )( lihat tabel - D) Komentar : bila bunga pasar tidak tetap maka cara - A agak sulit , sehingga Cara B , C dan D sehingga bunga yang dipakai bunga Floating rate ( bunga mengambang ) .

19 Kriteria Investasi : Ada 3 - kriteria dalam menganalisis kelayakan Investasi a . Rule of Thumb Method : 1. Payback period : = Berapa lama investasi kembali = N N = Total Investment (= Initial Investment) Cash inflow N yang terkecil yang dipilih Rate of Return Method : Net income before Depreciation + Debtservice ROR = Total Capital invested ( Puchase price ) ROR = Annual Cash flow after debt service Cash equity Investment

20 Average rate of return ( ARR ) : ARR = EAT AI AI = Total Investment / ARR > Tingkat bunga pinjaman b . Discounted Cash flow Method : An 1. Net Present Value = NPV = - Io +  ( 1 + i ) n Ai = Net Cash Flow at the end of the year I 0= Initial Investment outlay i = discount rate . n = project duration in years NPV > > Project Feasible NPV < > Not Feasible

21 2. Internal Rate of Return ( IRR ) : NPV = A i I0 =  , IRR > discount rate ---> Feasibel ( IRR ) n Profitability Index Ratio : PI = PV EAT dahulu disebut Benefit Cost ratio PV Cost Bila PI > > Feasible PI < > Not Feasible

22 Traditional Valuation Method : Ada 3 - pendekatan utama : Pendekatan Data Pasar ( Market data Approach) Pendekatan Biaya ( Cost Approach ) Pendekatan Pendapatan ( Income - Approach ) . Formula : MV = LV + ( RCN -D ) MV = LV + IV MV = MARKET VALUE LV = LAND VALUE RCN = Replacement Cost New D= Depreciation V = I / R I = Income per Year R = Capitalization Rate

23 Resiko Investasi : Ada beberapa resiko pada investasi yang harus diperhitungkan yaitu : Business Risk : resiko yang disebabkan oleh adanya fluktuasi / kondisi perekonomian secara umum,dimana kita tidak bisa memprediksinya contoh Peraturan Pemeri ntah yang berubah . •Liquididty Risk : resiko yang disebabkan tidak likuidnya dana perusahaan , yang mengakibatkan kewajiban jangka pendek tidak bisa dipenuhi . •Default Risk : resiko yang disebabkan karena tidak bisa mengembalikan pinjaman + bunganya karena kesalahan rutin dalam menghitung . •Financial Risk : resiko yang disebabkan kesalahan menghitung dan pengambilan asumsi2 nya •Market Risk : resiko yang yang terjadi karena adanya fluktuasi pasar , seperti over suplly . •Interest rate Risk : resiko yang disebabkan karena fluktuasi tingkat bunga dipasar naik , sehingga suku bunga pinjaman menjadi naik , dan menjadi kredit macet . •Purchasing risk : resiko yang terjadi karena daya beli masyarakat menurun . .Country Risk ; resiko yang disebabkan adanya ke tidak stabilan suatu negara karena adanya konflik politik , perang dsb.

24 Risk secara garis besar dapat dibagi - 2 Golongan 1
Risk secara garis besar dapat dibagi - 2 Golongan Symetric risk > resiko yang bisa diukur , contoh : financial risk , market risk Unsymetric risk > resiko yang tidak bisa diukur , seperti , business risk , political risk. Penangulangan Resiko : ada beberapa cara Menghindari atau menghilangkan resiko : •Memperhitungkan Real Estate Cycle •Menghindari property beresiko tinggi Mengalihkan resiko : •Mengasuransikan property •Menyewakan berjangka panjang Mengurangi resiko : •Jumlah kredit dikecilkan dan term of kredit diperlukan diperpanjang . •Harga beli tanah mentah •Deversifikasi ke beberapa sektor . •Joint venture •Hedging , forward cover .

25 Macam - macam prilaku pengambil keputusan terhadap resiko : Senang menghadapi Resiko ( Risk Seeker ). Selalu menghindari Resiko ( Risk Averter ) . Netral terhadap Resiko . Total Utility Risk Seeker Indiferent to Risk Utility of Money Risk Averter Money ( Return ) Risk Seeker : Increasing Marginal Utility of Money Risk Averter : Diminishing Marginal Utility of Money Indifferent to Risk : Constant Marginal Utility of Money .

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