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TABLE OF CONTENTS: I.CHAPTER 1 : ETHICS II.CHAPTER 2 : QUANTITATIVE METHODS III.CHAPTER 3 : ECONOMICS IV.CHAPTER 4 : FINANCIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE V.CHAPTER.

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Presentasi berjudul: "TABLE OF CONTENTS: I.CHAPTER 1 : ETHICS II.CHAPTER 2 : QUANTITATIVE METHODS III.CHAPTER 3 : ECONOMICS IV.CHAPTER 4 : FINANCIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE V.CHAPTER."— Transcript presentasi:

1 TABLE OF CONTENTS: I.CHAPTER 1 : ETHICS II.CHAPTER 2 : QUANTITATIVE METHODS III.CHAPTER 3 : ECONOMICS IV.CHAPTER 4 : FINANCIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE V.CHAPTER 5 : CORPORATE FINANCE VI.CHAPTER 6 : PORTOLIO ANALYSIS VII.CHAPTER 7 : EQUITY INV. VIII.CHAPTER 8 : FIXED INCOME INV. IX.CHAPTER 9 : DERIVATIVES X.CHAPTER 10: ALTERNATIVE INV.

2 ETHICS

3 QUANT. METHODS 1. TIME VALUE of MONEY CONCEPT A. Terminology: Compound interest / interest on interest (konsep riba – hadeeh) Timelines: discounting vs compounding PV (Present Value) FV (Future Value) compounding discounting Interest rate = required rate of return = discount rates = opportunity cost

4 QUANT. METHODS B. Real Risk-Free Rate, Nominal Risk-Free Rate, and Real Rate of Return Real risk-free rate = theoretical rate that has no expected inflation on it Nominal risk free rate = rate on T-Bills / SBI (includes expected inflation) Real Rate of Return = required rate of return on securities / rate that is stated on a bond / time deposit that includes additional risk calculation. Relationships: Nominal risk free rate = real risk-free rate + expected inflation rate Real Rate of Return = nominal risk free rate + default risk premium + liquidity premium + maturity risk premium Whereas: -Default risk = risk of bond/security holder for not making the promised regular payment (coupons/dividends) or the notional amount at the end of tenure. -Liquidity risk = risk of receiving less than fair value if we want to sell it for cash quickly. -Maturity risk = a kind of specific default risk for bonds (debt securities) only. maturityrisk

5 QUANT. METHODS C. Effective Annual Rate = annual rate of return actually being earned after adjustment have been made for different compounding periods. = necessary when comparing investments that have different compounding periods. It allows for an apple-to-apple rate comparison. Formula: EAR = (1 + periodic rate) m – 1 Example 1: Compute EAR if the stated annual rate is 12%, compounded quarterly Answer:

6 QUANT. METHODS Example 2: Example 3:

7 QUANT. METHODS D. Present Value, Future Value, and Annuities Formula: FV = PV ( 1 + I/Y) n  PV = ….. (tinggal dibalik) Annuities = dibagi 2: ordinary & annuity due (akan berbeda cara menghitungnya) = harus menggunakan kalkulator = lihat contoh untuk lebih mudahnya. PV of a perpetuity (infinite annuities) = PMT / (I/Y) Example 1:

8 QUANT. METHODS Example 2: Example 3:

9 QUANT. METHODS Example 4: Example 5:

10 QUANT. METHODS 2. DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW APPLICATION A. Net Present Value (NPV) Dijumlahkan, NPV > i = 10% Pertanyaan umum yang dapat dijawab oleh NPV: - Apakah proyek saya ini menguntungkan dengan asumsi required rate of return sebesar i (mis = 10%) - Reject sebuah project jika NPV < 0 Hal yang harus diperhatikan dalam menghitung NPV: - i atau required rate of return harus diketahui terlebih dahulu - Projected cash flow harus diketahui. Hal ini bisa melalui asumsi ataupun perkiraan pemasukan / pengeluaran output hasil proyek nantinya.

11 QUANT. METHODS 2. DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW APPLICATION B. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Dijumlahkan, NPV = i = ??? Pertanyaan umum yang dapat dijawab oleh NPV: - Dengan projected cash flow setiap tahun sebesar sekian, berapakah IRR saya? - Apakah IRR saya > dari required rate of return (atau dengan kata lain: lebih baik mengerjakan proyek ini ataukah menempatkan resource saya ditempat lain yang lebih menguntungkan?) Hal yang harus diperhatikan dalam menghitung NPV: -NPV = 0 - Projected cash flow harus diketahui. Hal ini bisa melalui asumsi ataupun perkiraan pemasukan / pengeluaran output hasil proyek nantinya.

12 QUANT. METHODS D. Holding Period Return (HPR), Money-Weighted Return, and Time-Weighted Rate of Return C. Project Decision Rule Dengan asumsi bahwa proyek-proyek yang ada bersifat mutual exclusive, pilih yang mana? : Project A: Project B: NPV IRR Project C:Project D: 50 mio 20%21% 60 mio100 mio 10% 20 mio 50% PROJECT C i. HPR = biasa juga disebut growth rate HPR = P 1 /P 0 – 1 atau (P 1 +D 1 )/P 0 – 1 ii. Money-Weighted Return : PV inflow = PV outflow Formula = menggunakan rumus Geometric Mean Return Perhitungan mirip dengan IRR, tapi perhatikan cash inflow & outflow per periode iii. Time-Weighted Rate of Return = measures of compound growth R G = [(1+R 1 ) (1+R 2 ) …….. (1+R n )] 1/n -1

13 QUANT. METHODS D. Bank Discount Yield (BDY), Holding Period Yield (HPY), Effective Annual Yield (EAY), Money Market Yield (MMY), and Bond Equivalent Yield (BEY) i. HPY = HPR (sama Rumusnya) iii. EAY = EAR (sama rumusnya) ii. Bank Discount Yield: r BD = D/F x 360/t D = discounted value F = face value t = time to maturity EAY = (1+HPY)] 365/t -1  Artinya EAY: HPY yang disetahunkan (HPY/year) iv. Money Market Yield (r MM ) or CD equivalent yield r MM = 360/t x HPYr MM = [360 x r BD ] / [360 – (t x r BD )] or HPY = (1+EAY)] t/ or v. Bond Equivalent Yield r BY = 365/t x HPR or r BY = 2 x semi-annual yield How? 1.Find the HPY for semi-annual period 2.Times 2 from the result you got above BDY < MMY < BEY

14 QUANT. METHODS 3. STATISTICAL CONCEPTS & MARKET RETURNS

15 QUANT. METHODS 4. PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

16 QUANT. METHODS 5. COMMON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

17 QUANT. METHODS 6. SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION

18 QUANT. METHODS 7. HYPOTHESIS TESTING

19 QUANT. METHODS 8. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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