Hartanto, SIP, MA Program Studi Ilmu Hubungan Internasional Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ekonomi Universitas Respati Yogyakarta 2015

 War is defined as an armed conflict between countries or groups that involves killing or destruction.  An effort to eradicate something harmful. (bloodless war)  Cold War

 Peace is defined as the freedom from conflict or disagreement among people or groups of people.  Peace Treaty – a formal contract or agreement to end of hostilities between two warring parties.  Treaty of Versailles (WWI)

“War is politics…” Carl von Clausewitz ( )  War in History War in History War in History

 Resources  Territory Land Access to the sea  Ethnicity  Religion  Ideology

LevelCause IndividualAggresive Characteristic of Leaders Misperceptions by Leaders Attributes of masses (Innate behavior or flawed character, aggresion) Communication Failure State/SocietyLiberal Capitalist States according to radicals Nonliberal/nondemocratic states according to liberals Domestic Politics/Spacegoating Struggles between groups for economic resources Ethnonational Challengers InternationalAnarchy Lack of an Arbiter Prominence of long cycles of war and peace Power Transitions Aggresiveness of the international capitalist class

 General War Fenomena abad 20 yang bertujuan untuk menaklukan dan menguasai wilayah musuh yang melibatkan seluruh kekuatan bersenjata dan mempunyai target baik itu militer atau sipil. Contoh World War I dan II  Limited War Perang yang mempunyai tujuan, senjata yang digunakan dan target tertentu. Contoh The Vietnam War, The Korean War and The Gulf War.  Civil War Perang antara faksi-faksi atau kelompok-kelompok dalam suatu negara untuk memperoleh kontrol atas wilayah, atau dalam rangka pendirian sebuah negara.  Terrorism Bentuk perang yang tersembunyi dan membahayakan, seringkali diarahkan untuk melukai warga sipil dan biasanya dilakukan oleh pihak yang lemah terhadap pihak yang kuat dengan menanamkan ketakutan dalam masyarakat.

Liberal International Institution coordinate actions to manage power Collective Security (1) Arms Control and Disarmament (2) Realist Reliance on force to manage power Balance of Power (3) Deterrence Liberal/Realist Peacekeeping (First and second generations)

 Wars are prevented by restraint of military action.  Aggressors must be stopped  The aggressors is easily identified  The aggressors is always wrong  Aggressors know the international community will act against them

 Fewer weapons means greater security  Regulating the upward spiral of armaments  Reducing the amount of arms and the types weapon employed

 Decisionmakers are rational  The threat of destruction from warfare is large  Alternatives to war are available

Major War EventFromToLow High Warring States Era, China BC 475 BC m An Shi Rebellion, China m Mongol Conquests, Europe, Asia m 60 m Thirty Years War m 11.5 m Napoleonic Wars m 16 m Taiping Rebellion, China m 50 m US Civil War ,000970,000 Russian Civil War m 9 m WW I (high includes Spanish Flu) m 66 m

More Major War Chinese Civil War m 6. 1 m 6. 1 m WW II m 72 m Viet Nam War m 5 m Korean War m 3.5 m Nigerian Civil War m Afghan Civil War 1979Present 1.5 m 2.0 m Iran-Iraq War m Congo Civil War ,000800,000 Second Congo War m13.8

1. Human Nature?  Thomas Hobbes Jean-Jacques Rousseau

2. Balance of Power Concert of Europe England Russia Prussia/Germany France Austria Hungary

Bipolarity The Cold War Balance of Power IsraelSyria/Egypt EthiopiaSomalia TaiwanChina S. KoreaN. Korea S. Viet NamN. Viet Nam W. BerlinE. Berlin W. GermanyE. Germany Britain/France/JapanPoland/Czech USUSSR

3. Long Cycle Theory (Power Transition) Hegemonic War Winner becomes Hegemon Hegemon rules system Hegemon weakens Challenger Rises

Long Cycle One: Power DominanceDecline   War Portugal War begins Portugal War begins  (Spain v. Portugal)  decline begins1580  Time

Long Cycle Two:   Power DominanceDecline  War NetherlandsWar begins (Britain/Neth. v. France)   decline begins1688 Time

Long Cycle Three: PowerDominance Decline   WarBritain War begins (Napoleonic Wars) (Napoleonic Wars)  decline begins 1792  Time

Long Cycle Four:   Power DominanceDecline  War BritainWW I begins  decline begins1914  Time

Long Cycle Five: 1914-?  Power DominanceDecline  WarU.S.US v. China? EU? decline 20?? decline 20??  begins Time  Source for Cycles 1-4: George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, Seattle, University of Washington Press, 1987.

 From:

Global Military Expenditures Global Military Expenditures  CountryMilitary spending Budget Period  World $1100 billion 2004 est.  United States $623 billion FY08  Rest-of-World $500 billion 2004 est.  China $65.0 billion 2004 China  Russia$50.0 billion Russia  France$45.0 billion 2005  United Kingdom$42.8 billion 2005 est.  Japan$41.75 billion 2007 Japan  Germany$35.1 billion 2003  Italy$28.2 billion 2003  South Korea $21.1 billion 2003 est.  India$19.0 billion 2005 est. India  Saudi Arabia$18.0 billion 2005 est.  Australia$16.9 billion 2006  North Korea $5.0 billion FY02  Iran$4.3 billion 2003 est.  From:

4. Nuclear Revolution  HiroshimaNagasaki

Who has them? CountryWarheads United States10,000* Russia19,500* China100+ France 350 United Kingdom~200 Israel (estimated) India (estimated)45-95 Pakistan (estimated)25-50 TOTAL Approx 29,000 From: Arms Control Association, Fact Sheets Arms Control Association, Fact SheetsArms Control Association, Fact Sheets *United States: 5,968 strategic warheads,1 more than 1,000 operational tactical weapons, and approximately 3,000 reserve strategic and tactical warheads; Russia: 4,978 strategic warheads,1 approximately 3,500 operational tactical warheads, and more than 11,000 stockpiled strategic and tactical warheads.

Irrationality?  Saddam Hussein, Ahmadinejad, Kim Jong-Il