Manajemen Proyek Perangkat Lunak (MPPL) BAB 6 Manajemen Resiko The McGraw-Hill Companies/Software Project Management (second edition) / Bob Hughes and Mike Cotterell

Risk Management Tujuan Melihat manajemen resiko selama proyek Pentingnya resiko tergantung dari proyek yang ada Manajemen resiko harus mengurangi bahaya resiko suatu proyek Use this slide to introduce the unit subject.

Kategori Resiko Macam-macam resiko ditemukan dalam proyek Disebabkan karena kesulitan dalam estimasi Disebabkan karena asumsi yang dibuat selama proses planning Disebabkan karena terjadi kejadian tak terduka Discuss the points on the slide.

Manajemen resiko Risk engineering Risk analysis Risk management Risk identification Risk estimation Risk evaluation Give an overview of the model before the detailed explanation that will follow in the rest of the slides. From: Boehm Tutorial on software risk management IEEE computer society 1989 Risk planning Risk control Risk monitoring Risk directing Risk staffing

Identifikasi Resiko Beberapa kategori faktor yang perlu diperhatikan Faktor Staf Faktor Proyek Faktor Metoda Proyek Faktor Hardware/software Faktor perubahan Faktor Supplier Faktor Lingkungan dan Sosial Faktor Kesehatan dan keselamatan Discuss the points on the slide. Give examples if you wish.

Analisa Resiko Tinkat pentingnya sebuah resiko dikenal dengan istilah risk value atau risk exposure risk exposure = risk likelihood x risk impact Explain the points on the slide.

Analisa Resiko Tabel Bagian dari nilai risk exposure Hazard Likelihood Impact exposure 1 Changes to the requirements 1 8 8 specification during coding 2 Specification take longer than 3 7 21 expected 3 Staff sickness affecting 5 7 35 critical path activities 4 Staff sickness affecting 10 3 30 non-critical activities Use this example to reiterate what has been said over the last few slides. Ask student to think about why the figures for staff sickness are different for the critical and non-critical path activities.

Analisa Resiko Manajemen Resiko digunakan dua strategi Mengurangi risk exposure Menggambarkan contingency plans Discuss the points on the slide.

Penggunaan PERT untuk mengevaluasi waktu yang tidak pasti Ada tiga pendekatan yang dihasilkan dalam setiap aktifitas Most likely time (m) Optimistic time (a) Pessimistic (b) ‘expected time’ te = (a + 4m +b) / 6 ‘activity standard deviation’ S = (b-a)/6 Most likely time (m) the time we would expect the task to take normally Optimistic time (a) the shortest time could be realistically be expected Pessimistic (b) worst possible time (only 1% chance of being worse, say) Some straightforward activities (data input of standing data might perhaps be an example) might have little uncertainty and therefore have a low standard deviation, while others (software design, for instance?) have more uncertainty and would have a bigger standard deviation. Exercise 7.6 in the textbook will give some practice in calculating these values.

Rantai Aktifitas Task a m b te s A 10 12 16 ? B 8 14 C 20 24 38 Task A Task B Task C Task a m b te s A 10 12 16 ? B 8 14 C 20 24 38 Fill the missing gaps? Te Task A te = (10+ (12 x 4) + 16)/ 6 i.e. 12.66 s = (16-10)/6 i.e. 1 Task B te = (8 + (10 x 4) + 14)/ 6 i.e. 10.33 s = (14-8)/6 i.e. 1 Task C Te = (20 + (24 x 4) + 38)/6 i.e. 25.66 s = (38-20)/6 i.e. 3

Rantai Aktifitas Berapa nilai te (waktu estimasi) untuk rantai aktifitas A + B + C? Jawab: 12.33 + 10.33 + 25.66 = 48.32 Berapa nilai standard deviasi rantai aktifitas A + B+ C? Jawab : Akar dari (12 + 12 + 32) = 3.32 Get them to guess the square root if no one has a laptop with excel or a scientific calculator!

Menentukan kemungkinan tercapainya target Misalkan target untuk menyelesaikan rantai aktifitas A+B+C adalah 52 hari (T) Hitung nilai z (standard deviasi normal) dengan rumus z = (T – te)/s Pada contoh, nilai z = (52-48.32)/3.32 = 1.11 Lihat pada tabel probabilitas tidak tercapai nilai z, z=1.11 , pr tidak tercapai = 15 % Probabilitas tercapai 100 % - 15 % = 85 %

Graph of z values There is about a 15% chance of not meeting the target of 52 days.

TERIMA KASIH