1. Membahas bagaimana perusahaan mengevaluasi resiko politik. BAB VI. MANAGING POLITICAL RISK AND NEGOTIATION Tujuan Bahasan 1. Membahas bagaimana perusahaan mengevaluasi resiko politik. 2. Metode yang digunakan untuk memanage dan mengurangi resiko politik. 3. Membahas bagaimana proses negosiasi berjalan dan pengaruh budaya terhadap negosiasi. 4. Membahas jenis – jenis negosiasi, gaya negosiasi, metode dan taktik negosiasi.

DEFINISI POLITICAL RISK is the likelihood that MNC’s foreign investment will be constrained by a host government’s policies. Resiko yang harus diperhatikan MNC dalam memasuki negara dunia Ketiga (melakukan bisnis) antara lain adalah : belum meningkatkan investasi asing alat produksi produksi (negara dituju dan investor) Contoh: negara eropa timur, tinggi ketidakstabilannya sangat berisiko bagi MNC yang akan bisnis disana.

Partai-partai politik (didlm dan diluar kekuasaan): Daftar kriteria yang digunakan MNC untuk mengevaluasi Derajad resiko politik Faktor Eksternal Kelompok Internal : Prospek konflik asing Hubungan dg batas negara Ketidakstabilan regional Aliansi dg kekuatan regional Sumber-sumber bahan baku utama Pasar asing Kebijakan dengn US Kebijakan US dengan negara Pemerintahan dlm kekuasaan Agen-agen dan kantor kunci Birokrasi-legeslatif Kebijakan ekonomi,keuangan sosial, tenaga kerja dll Sikap sektor swasta Jaringan kerja kekuasaan Partai-partai politik (didlm dan diluar kekuasaan): Kebijakan-kebijakan Perjuangan kekuasaan internal Wilayah dan sektor-sektor kekuatan Prospek untuk memperoleh dan melepas kekuasaan

Kelompok Penting lain : FaktorInternal Pergerakan dan gabungan tenaga kerja Militer dan kelpk khusus dlm militer Keluarga Komunitas bisnis dan keuangan Intelegensia Mahasiswa Kelompok Agama Media Pemerintah daerah Aktivis sosial dan lingkungan Budaya, bahasa, kelompok etnis Para separatis Komunitas Asing Pesaing dan Pelanggan Kekuatan perjuangan diantara para etnis Konfrontasi etnik Perjuangan regional Faktor ekonomi (inflasi, harga upah, pengangguran, supply, tax dll)

Analisis Resiko Politik Macro Political Risk Analysis mengulas keputusan-keputusan politik besar yang mempepngaruhi seluruh perusahaan di suatu negara. Micro Political Risk Analysis mengarah pada kebijakan-kebijakan dan tindakan pemerintah yang mempengaruhi sektor-sektor ekonomi tertentu atau bisnis asing khusus dalam suatu negara. Kebijakan pemerintah meliputi : peraturan industri Peraturan pajak Hukum-hukum lokal

MANAGING POLITICAL RISK Dalam dua dekade terkahir, bisnis perusahaan mencari cara untuk mengelola resiko politik. Proses ini diawali dengan analisa mendetail ttg berbagai resiko politk yang akan dihadapi MNC’s, meliputi : development of comprehensive frame work Assigns a quantitative risk or rating factor to them Developing a comprehensive frame work meliputi: memperhatikan/mempertimbangkan resiko politik mengidentifikasi yang paling penting

POLITICAL RISK GENERAL INVESTMENT SPECIAL INVESTMENT SCHMIDT menawarkan 3 dimensi kerangka kerja Yang meliputi : POLITICAL RISK GENERAL INVESTMENT SPECIAL INVESTMENT

Political Risk dpt dipecah jadi 3 bagian : Transfer Risk muncul dari kebijakan pemerintah yang membatasi modal, pembayaran, produksi, orang dan teknologi yang keluar masuk negara. Contoh : tarif ekspor/impor, batasan X,M Operational Risk diakibatkan adanya kebijakan pemerintah dan prosedur-prosedur yang secara langsung membatasi manajemen dan kinerja operasi lokal.Contoh : pengen dalian harga,keuangan, pajak, komitmen ekspor dan local sourcing requirement. Ownership – Control Risk diakibatkan dari kebijakan pemerintah atau kegiatan yang mengatur kepemilikan atau kontrol operasi lokal. Contoh : batasan kepemilikan asing batasan partisipasi lokal

A Three-Dimensional Framework For Assessing Political Risk Special Investment V IV III II I I Conglomerate Vertical Horizontal High High High Low Low Low General Investment Trsnfer Opersional Ownership Control Political Risk

Conglomerate Investment Vertical Investment Horizontal Investment General Nature Of Investment dibagi 3: Conglomerate Investment Vertical Investment Horizontal Investment

Conglomerate investment barang-barang dan jasa yang diproduksi tidak sama dg yang diproduksi di negara asal tipe investasi ini biasanya tingkat resiko tinggi Vertical Investment meliputi produksi raw material dan barang setengah jadi yang diproses menjadi barang jadi resiko investasi ditanggung pemerintah pemerintah suka bisnia yang membantu modal asing Horizontal Investment memproduksi barang dan jasa yang sama dengan yang diproduksi negara asal. investasi ini dibuat untuk memuaskan permintaan pasar host country.

Special Nature of Investment Berkaitan dengan kegiatan ekonomi, kecanggihan teknologi Dan pola kepemilikan. 3 sektor kegiatan ekonomi meliputi : Sektor primer, terdiri dari pertanian, kehutanan, eksplorasi mineral 2. Sektor Industri terdiri dari industri manufaktur dan 3. Sektor Jasa terdiri dari jasa transpotasi, keuangan, asuransi dan related industries.

Quantifying the variable in Managing Political Risk Criteria for quantifying Political Risk Score Min max 3 14 0 14 0 12 5 9 12 3 15 8 2 10 7 3 10 2 10 2 8 2 14 4 8 10 9 2 8 Major Area Political and Economic environment Domestic economic Conditions External Economic Relation Criteria Kestabilan sistem politik Konflik internal Ancaman thdp kestab.dunia luar Tingkat pengendalian sistem ekonomi Jaminan kelembagaan Efektivitas administrasi umum Hubungan perburuhan dan kedamaian sosial Jumlah penduduk Income per capita Pertumbuhan ekonomi selama 5 thn terakhir Prospek pertumbuhan 3 thn kedepan Inflasi 2 thn terakhir Ktersediaan high-quality tenaga kerja lokal Kemungkinan memberi kesemptn kerja t.k asing Ketersediaan sumber energi Legalitas perlindungan lingkungan Traffic system and communication Batasan impor Batasan ekspor Batasan investasi asing dlm negri Kebebasan membuat partneship Perlindungan legal akan brand and product Batasan transfer keuangan

Formulating Appropriate Responses Ada 2 pendekatan : Relative Bargaining Power Perusahaan bekerja untuk memperoleh posisi bargaining yang lebih kuat di host country. B A R G I N P O W E High Subsidiary’s bargaining power D E B C A Host nation’s Bargaining power . Low Initial investment Time

Integrative and Protective and Defensive Technique Integrative Technique dirancang untuk membantu Operasi overseas menjadi bagian dari infrastruktur Host country, meliputi : Membangun hubungan baik dg pemerintah dan kelompok politik lokal Memproduksi sebanyak mungkin produk dg menggunakan supplier dan subkontraktor lokal shg menjadi produk domestik. Membangun joint venture dan rekrut tenaga lokal Lakukan sebanyak mungkin R&D lokal Membangun hubungan manajemen tenaga kerja yang efektif.

MANAGING INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATION Definisi Negotiation is the process of bargaining with one or more parties for the purpose of arrive at a solution that is acceptable to all. (Hodgetts and Luthans, 168) Negotiation is a process in which two or more parties who have both common interest and conflicting interest put forth and discuss explicit proposals concerning specific terms of a possible agreement.. (Gordon)

PROSES NEGOSIASI Ada beberapa langkah dasar yang dapat digunakan dalam Proses memenaj negosiasi. Langkah-Langkah Negosiasi (Hodget-Luthans,169) Planning 1). Setting of limits on single point objective 2). Dividing issues into short and long-term concideration and deciding how to handle each. 3). Determining the sequence in which to discuss the various issues. Interpersonal Relationship Building Exchanging task-Related Information

lanjutan Persuasion The success of persuasion step often depends on : 1) how well the parties understand each other’s positions. 2) the ability of each to identify areas similarity and differences. 3) the ability to create new options and 4) the willingness to work toward a solution that allows all parties to walk away that they have achieved their objectives. Agreement The final phase of negotiations is the granting of concessions and the hammering out of a final agreement . Agreement depends on cultural differences

Prosess Negosiasi Four Basic Steps (Gordon) : Preparation Mengupulkan informasi (ttg pihak lain, barang jasa yang diminta). Menetapkan target (keputusan secara detail yang dibutuhkan). Evaluation Of Alternatives Setiap pihak mencoba mengidentifikasi wilayah tawar (bargaining range) ttg kemungkinan apa yang dapat memuaskan kedua belah pihak. Setiap pihak juga menentukan alternatif apa yang dapat disediakan untuk pihak alain apabila perjanjian/ kesepakatan tidak dapat dicapai.

Style and Behaviour of Negotiation Submissive (passive) behaviour backing down complaint reluctant to impose yourself yielding accomodating unreststing Aggressive Behaviour Violent forcefull fighting quarell some exerting pressure pregnacions Assertive Behaviour not trying to dominate insistent to positive

TWO MAJOR TYPES OF NEGOTIATIONS DISTRIBUTIVES Most commonly used type of negotiation based on idea that everytime one party wins, the other must give up something. 2. INTEGRATIVES A cooperative negotiation strategy Based on the idea that both parties gain As a result of the negotiation. To be effective this type of negotiation , requires : 1). Both parties to have a strong desire to seek an agreement that meet the need of both parties. 2). A problem-solving approach rather than a desire to win at any cost to the other party. 3). A level of trust that allows information to be shared openly and honesty (win-win situatin).

NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES Three basic strategies Competition One party seek to gain at the expense of the other One or both parties likely to use a variety of strategies- secrecy, treats, lies. Collaboration each party take a problem solving approach look for that satisfy both parties. Sub-ordination one party deliberately sub ordinates own goal to avoid conflict with other party.

SKILL OF INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATOR To be sensitive to the cultural background of others and adjust the proposals to the cultural limitations and contraints. Patience Ability to see the world from the perspective of others and to understand others’ behaviour from their perspective. Ability to express proposal atc, so that peopple on the other side of the negotiations have accurate understanding of proposals. Ability to manage stress and cope with ambigious situational and unpredictable demands. Ability to demonstrate the advantages of the proposals so that people on the other side can see the advantages clearly. Harries,P.R.& Moran,R.T. (1991) Managing Cultural Differences 3rd edition, Houtson, Texas : Gulf Publishing, p 59)

Perbedaan budaya mempengaruhi Negosiasi Negotiation Styles from a cross-cultural perspectiv South America Emotiona sensitivity valued Emotionally passionate Great power plays; use of Weakness. Loyalty to employer (who is Often family). Decision come down from One individual. Face-saving crusial in decision Making to preserve honor, Dignity. Execution of special interests Of decision maker expected, Condoned. Argumentative when right or Wrong; passionate. Impatient with documentation As obstacle to understanding General principles. Impulsive, spontaneuos Decision Making. Japanese Emotional sensitivity Highly valued Hiding of emotions Subtle power plys;conci- liation Loyalty to employer;em- Ployer takes care of its Employees. Group decision making concensus. Face-saving crucial; deci- Sion often made on basis Of saving someone from Embarrassment. Decision makers openly Influenced by special Interest. Not argumentatives;quiet When right. What is down in writing Must be accurate North American Emotional sensitivity Not highly valued Dealing straight forwardly Or impersonally. Litigation not as much as conciliation. Lack of commitment to Employer;breaking of ties By either if necessary. Teamwork provides input To a decision maker. Decision made on a cost- Benefit basis; facing-saving Daes not always matt er. Decision maker influenced By special interest, which Often is not concidered Ethical. Argumentative when right Or wrong,but impersonal.

Negotiation tactics Bargaining Behaviour Location Time limits Buyer-seller relations Bargaining Behaviour Penelitian menunjukka bahwa keuntungan meningkat karena para negosiator : Membuat tawaran awal tinggi Menanyakan banyak pertanyaan Tidak membuat komitmen verbal sampai akhir proses negosiasi.

Bargaining Behaviour Penggunaan perilaku ekstrim Berjanji, mengancam, dan perilaku lain 3. Perilaku nonverbal