Fifth TWG I Meeting: Energy Policy Analysis Oetomo Tri Winarno Grand Candi Hotel - Semarang 11 July 2011

Agenda 1.Opening and introduction 2.Presentation by Pusdatin 3.Presentation by regional team 4.How to develop RUED 5.Integration of TWG reports 6.Discussion 7.Work plan for the coming months

Review of TWG 2 Activities 29 Nov st Meeting 8 Feb nd Meeting 27 May rd Meeting 21 Oct th Meeting 22 Dec 2010 Bandung Meeting 1 Mar th Meeting Jul th Meeting National Seminar TWG II Submission Sep May 2011 Bandung Meeting

Deadline in the Proposal TWG II D25renewable energy action plan (end of 2010) TWG I D21energy profile (end of 2009) D22energy profile (end of 2010) D23energy profile (end of 2011) D28 energy outlook, including the pro-poor strategies (mid 2011) D26 activities aimed at lower level authorities (???)

Finalization of D21, D22, D23 Technical Proposal: – Report: in English & Bahasa Indonesia – Does not mentioned the format of the report: softcopy or hardcopy ?? I propose: – Hardcopy for all Casindo stakeholders (ECN, Pusdatin, ETCERE, DJ EBTKE, ITB, 5 regions, Dinas, etc.) Content: – D21 & D22 : tables – D23 : tables & narration

Outline D23 1.General information of province Geographic and political 1-2 pages 1.2 Socio-economic Population (plus trend )2-3 pages Economy (overall + per (sub)sector plus trend )5-7 pages 1.3 Energy resources (domestic) 2.Energy Balance 2.1 Final energy consumption Final energy consumption by sector (plus trend )5-7 pages Final energy consumption per energy (plus trend )3 pages 2.2 Energy transformation Electricity production (PLN- non PLN; plus trend )2-3 pages Others (refinery, … when applicable)1-2 pages 2.3 Energy supply (domestic plus imports/exports) (plus trend ) solid fuels1-2 pages liquid fuels3-4 pages gas1-2 pages biomass and other renewables3-4 pages

Outline D Energy and commodity balance commodity balance1-2 pages energy balance1-2 pages 3. Data sources and assumptions 3 1 data sources1-2 pages 3.2 assumptions1-2 pages 3.3 main methodology changes with energy profile pages Annex Commodity balance Energy Balance Tables and graphs from Excel file

How to Develop RUED New KEN have not launch yet RUEN will launch after New KEN RUEN guideline is still in process D28 will refer to RUEN guideline (not estab’d)

RUEN – RUED Flow DEN KESDM c.q. Setjen Rancangan Awal RUEN Propinsi Kabupaten/ Kota Kebijakan Energi Nasional Rancangan Awal RUED - TP Rancangan RUED - TK Rancangan RUED - TP Rancangan RUEN Penetapan RUEN Penetapan RUED - TP Penetapan RUED - TK Jan Mar Mei Jul Sep Okt Nov Des

D28 (RUED) Outline BAB I PENDAHULUAN 1.1 Kebijakan dan Perundangan 1.2 Tujuan 1.3 Indikator Pemakaian Energi BAB II PRAKIRAAN PERMINTAAN ENERGI 2.1 Asumsi Model dan Parameter Skenario 2.2 Permintaan Energi Final per Sektor 2.3 Permintaan Energi Final per Jenis BAB III PERENCANAAN PENYEDIAAN ENERGI 3.1 Minyak dan Gas Bumi 3.2 Kelistrikan 3.3 Batubara 3.4 Energi Baru dan Terbarukan BAB IV EMISI DARI SEKTOR ENERGI 4.1 Emisi CO 2 dari Pengguna Akhir 4.2 Emisi CO 2 dari Pembangkitan Listrik 4.3 Emisi CO 2 dari Pertambangan Migas dan Batubara 4.4 Emisi CO 2 dari Industri Migas BAB V STRATEGI PELAKSANAAN 5.1 Sisi Permintaan 5.2 Sisi Penyediaan

D28 (RUED) Outline BAB I PENDAHULUAN 1.1 Kebijakan dan Perundangan 1.2 Tujuan 1.3 Indikator Pemakaian Energi BAB II PRAKIRAAN PERMINTAAN ENERGI 2.1 Asumsi Model dan Parameter Skenario 2.2 Permintaan Energi Final per Sektor 2.3 Permintaan Energi Final per Jenis BAB III PERENCANAAN PENYEDIAAN ENERGI 3.1 Minyak dan Gas Bumi 3.2 Kelistrikan 3.3 Batubara 3.4 Energi Baru dan Terbarukan BAB IV EMISI DARI SEKTOR ENERGI 4.1 Emisi CO 2 dari Pengguna Akhir 4.2 Emisi CO 2 dari Pembangkitan Listrik 4.3 Emisi CO 2 dari Pertambangan Migas dan Batubara 4.4 Emisi CO 2 dari Industri Migas BAB V STRATEGI PELAKSANAAN 5.1 Sisi Permintaan 5.2 Sisi Penyediaan TWG I TWG II TWG III TWG I TWG II TWG III TWG I TWG II TWG III TWG IV TWG V

TWG I and Other TWGs LEAP Modeling Report on Energy Outlook (Regional Energy Planning) D28 D21D22D23 TWG I TWG II Report on Renewable Energy Action Plan D25 TWG III Report on Energy Conservation Action Plan D24 TWG IV Report on Energy Supply Projects D27 D26 Report on Activities at Kabupaten/Kota TWG ??

LEAP Modeling Region categorization: – By province: Jateng, Sumut, Papua – By island: NTB – By regency/city: Yogya Base year 2008 Population: based on Sensus

LEAP Modeling LEAP Model -Overall energy supply demand outlook -Energy mix outlook (incl. RE) -Energy conservation scenario Energy Profile -Energy consumption -Energy supply RE Action Plan -RE data -RE planning & target EC Action Plan -EC potential -EC planning & target

TWG II in LEAP Model Demand model – Demand of biofuel – Biomass for substituting oil fuel in industry Supply model – Geothermal PP – Hydro PP – Wind PP – Solar PV – Biomass PP – Biofuel production – Combined fuel

TWG III in LEAP Model Only for demand side: – Household sector: detailed to end use – Commercial sector: ? – Industry sector: ? – Transport sector: ?

TWG III in LEAP Model Conservation step: – Behavioral change – Retrofitting the current equipment – Technology change

Scenarios BAUaccording to current policy/trend Optimistic KEDFollow: - the full target of RE in TWG II - the full target of conservation in TWG III Moderate KEDCorrected optimistic target with the most possible development

Work plan JuliAgustusSeptemberOktoberNovember D21, D22, D23XXXX D24XXXXX D25 XXXXXX D28: LEAP modelingXXXXX X D28: report writing XXXXX D28: proofing XXX D28: printing XX D26 Semarang Meeting X National Seminar X X : NTB, Yogya, Jateng X : Sumut, Papua

Preparation of CASINDO National Seminar 26 October 2011 Session I on regional energy policy formulation ITB : overview of approach & result USU : energy efficiency master plan UNCEN : renewable energy action plan UMY : pro- poor energy strategy

International Conference International Conference and Exhibition on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency – Date: 17 – 19 Oct 2011 – Place: Nusa Dua, Bali – Conducted by: WREC, KNI-WEC Deadline for paper submission: end of July

Thank You