EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL I Pertemuan III : Peranan teori perdagangan internasional dan Gravity model Ferry Prasetyia, SE., MAppEc

Peranan Teori perdagangan Analisa faktor penyebab perdagangan Analisa pola perdagangan Rumusan kebijakan perdagangan Perbedaan persepektif terhadap perdagangan Persoalan dan solusi perdagangan internasional

Gravity Model Tingkat volume perdagangan internasional sangat ditentukan oleh jarak antara negara, ukuran ekonomi negara (GDP) Dari rumusan diatas dapat diformulasikan sebagai berikut (Krugman and Obsfeld, 2008): Tij = A x Yi x Yj /Dij Dimana: Tij : Nilai perdagangan antara negara i dan j A : konstanta Yi : GDP di negara i Yj : GDP di negara j Dij : jarak antara negara i dan j

Gravity Model (cont.) Fakta empiris menunjukan bahwa persoalan ukuran ekonomi sangat berkaitan dengan volume ekspor dan impor Negara besar memproduksi barang dan jasa lebih banyak, sehingga dapat mengekspor Negara besar dapat pendapatan dari barang dan jas yang dijual, sehingga masyarakatnya dapat membeli produk impor lebih banyak. Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-1: Total U.S. Trade with Major Partners, 2006 3 of the top 10 trading partners with the U.S. in 2005 were also the 3 largest European economies: Germany, UK, and France. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the Value of Their Trade with the United States Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, European Commission

Faktor lain yang mempengaruhi Gravity Model Karakteristik geografi Kebudayaan masyarakat Perbatasan antara negara Multi National Corporation

Fig. 2-3: Economic Size and Trade with the United States Source: U.S. Deparment of Commerce, European Commission Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U. S Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U.S. States That Trade with British Columbia Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Table 2-3: Trade with British Columbia, as Percent of GDP, 1996 Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-5: The Rise, Fall, and Rise of International Trade Since 1830 Source: Richard E. Baldwin and Phillipe Martin, “Two Waves of Globalization: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences,” in Horst Siebert, ed., Globalization and Labor (Tubingen: Mohr, 1999). Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-6: The Composition of World Trade, 2005 Source: World Trade Organization Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Table 2-4: Manufactured Goods as a Percent of Merchandise Trade Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-7: The Changing Composition of Developing-Country Exports Source: United Nations Council on Trade and Development Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-8: Tradable Industries’ Share of Employment Source: J. Bradford Jensen and Lori G. Kletzer, “Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Outsourcing,” Peterson Institute of Economics Working Paper 5-09, May 2005 Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)