AIR HIJAU & KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN smno.psdl.ppsub

Professor M.Falkenmark Stockholm International Water Institute Stockholm Resilience Center Sustainable development and innovation Water, ecohydrology and energy EPFL, Lausanne 3 March 2009 Food and environmental sustainability – The water perspective _________________________

KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN: Environmental sustainability __________________________ Non-undermining of the life support system Apa peranan air bersih – freshwater ?  sebagai ”DARAH” bagi BIOSPHERE

Air : Inti dari sistem penunjang kehidupan Air = Denominator Umum * bloodstream of the biosphere * life elexir for human society

DUA MACAM BENTUK AIR M.Falkenmark March 09 HUJAN

NERACA AIR GLOBAL Precipitation 100 % 65 % 35 % M.Falkenmark March 09

Fungsi-fungsi air habitat carrier biomass production body functions socio- economic production Kesehatan aquatic ecosystems erosion, pollutant transport food, timber, biofuels income raising energy (hydropower, cooling) water functions M.Falkenmark March 09

Ecosystem protection __________________________ WHY- fundamental roles in life support system WHAT - specific landscape component - ecosystem functioning/ resilience ” HOW - determinant identification - minimum requirement  integrated catchment management offers a way / ILWRM M.Falkenmark March 09

MASYARAKAT & AIR Kebutuhan Individu Kebutuhan Sosial Kebutuhan Ekologis

Manusia dan Masyarakatnya snagat tergantung pada air bersih blue water withdrawal may be used in two main ways * some uses are throughflow-based use, sending return flow back - municipal use - industry * other uses are consumptive depletive water use - food, biofuels - timber, carbon sequestration M.Falkenmark March 09

Perbedaan Hidro-klimatik Majority of poor and undernourished /ca 1 bln ca 450 million rainfed = water constrained agricultural production M.Falkenmark March 09

Kendala hakiki: Variabilitas air in water-constrained economies hydrologic variability complicates food production December rainfall Cereal yield M.Falkenmark March 09

Air & Pembangunan Ekonomi * overcoming hydrological variability = basic -> Ketahanan Air minimum -- Tiga Kategori Daerah atau Negara: * those that have harnessed their hydrology industrial countries * those that are hampered by their hydrology emerging economies * those that remain hostages of their hydrology low income countries M.Falkenmark March 09

TANTANGAN SERIUS : Ketahanan Pangan Global Kelangkaan pangan Krisis pangan

Kebutuhan Air untuk Produksi Pangan Produksi pangan membutuhkan air 70 kali lebih banyak daripada kebutuhan domestik rumahtangga 3000 kcal/p d 20 % anim prot. M.Falkenmark March 09

Preferensi Pangan dgn meningkatnya INCOME rich in meat vegetarian diet global average Water requirement m3/cap day M.Falkenmark March 09

Produksi Pangan water needed to produce food required = HUGE irrigation cannot contribute much SSA small rivers ephemeral SAs river basins closing  rest = to be covered by green water/soil moisture * can improve water productivity * can expand cropland Green revolution M.Falkenmark March 09

Banyak air yang hilang untuk panen di Lahan Kering Out of crop water required : only 90 % as rain * only 60 % infiltrates * only 40 % stays in root zone * only 1/3 of that taken up by roots * rest evaporates Blue water generation Infiltrated and percolated gregre g greegree iiniin Stored in root zone M.Falkenmark March 09

Pilihan di tingkat Nasional Income (2005) Deficiency A2 / UN med Surplus A2 / UN med Low1730 / 1400 km 3 /yr Cropland expansion 4190 / 3790 Mp 310 / 410 km 3 /yr Food export 470 / 480 Mp Medium1200 / 490 km 3 /yr Food import 3110 / 2120 Mp 2240 / 2680 km 3 /yr Food export 1960 / 1610 Mp High330 / 260 km 3 /yr Food import 540 / 520 Mp 890 / 880 km 3 /yr Food export 670 / 630 Mp M.Falkenmark March 09

Mengurangi Defisit Air Limited population growth (UN rather than A2 scenario) 2000 km3/yr Perbaikan efisiensi air 2220 “ Pembangunan Irigasi 430 “ Food import from water surplus countries 750 Cropland expansion into non-permanent pastures 130 “ Unresolved ultimate water deficit 1270 “ M.Falkenmark March 09

DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI : LINTAS BATAS DAERAH / KOTA/ KABUPATEN / PROPINSI / NEGARA

Hubungan Hulu-Hilir - DAS Semiarid Trans-national 00=time zero 00 = forseeable future time upstream runoff generation > 15 M.Falkenmark March 09

Hilir Hulu Low High LowHigh Tujuan Pembangunan Attention to cons. use upstr Limit downstr requirem. Limit upstr consumpt. use Euphr/Tigr Nile Niger Fleksibilitas: Hidup selalu berubah M.Falkenmark March 09

Semiarid transnational basin dilemma __________________________ growing populations food demands of new middle class increase quickly with income food security essential to avoid unrest institution-building essential but takes time: - development of shared vision + principles, - permanent water commission + interacting heads of state, -flexible transnational river basin agreement M.Falkenmark March 09

KESEIMBANGAN

Sumberdaya Air Hijau – Air Biru 100% 60% 40% India Kenya M.Falkenmark March 09

More consumptive use upstream -> less blue water downstream ______________________________ Environmental Water Flows Green water for Terrestrial Ecosystem services Blue water for Aquatic Ecosystem services RAIN BLUE GREEN Coastal water M.Falkenmark March 09

Perlindungan Ekosistem WHY- fundamental roles in life support system WHAT - specific landscape component - ecosystem functioning/ resilience ” HOW - determinant identification - minimum requirement integrated catchment management offers a way / IWRM M.Falkenmark March 09

DAS sebagai dasar pengaturan ILWRM untuk mengelola kompatibilitas land use – water use – ecosystem sustainability M.Falkenmark March 09

Mengoptimalkan manfaat air hujan lokal Sumberdaya = rainfall : Air Hijau: Produksi tanaman pertanian tadah hujan Air biru: Kebutuhan domestik, Industri, Irigasi -> make best use of local rain Kesiapan untuk: Pertumbuhan penduduk Pembangunan ekonomi Peningkatan Kesejahteraan Peningkatan kebutuhan pangan = mengubah keseimbangan antar daerah

Memenuhi kekurangan air : - irrigation - limited potential - rainfed - plenty of green net deficiency: 3260 km3/yr/ 7 bln - by import some 40 % - too poor to pay 60 % -> horisontal expansion - to where? not much grazing land unresolved 1270 km3/yr M.Falkenmark March 09 Ketahanan Pangan = memerlukan banyak sekali air

Keseimbangan vs. Kelestarian Lingkungan Keseimbangan : - Hulu – Hilir - Air hijau – Air Biru - Manusia - Ekosistem ILWRM = alat bantu Kelestarian menjadi ”Kendala” yang menentukan determinan sumberdaya air