Ekonomi Indonesia Transformasi dan Kebijakan Pertanian Muchlis Husin, SE.,MA. Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik

Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa akan mampu : Mahasiswa mampu menjelaskan peranan sektor pertanian dalam pembangunan perekonomian Indonesia Mahasiswa dapat menjelaskan keterkaitan sektor pertanian dengan sektor industri manufaktur (agribisnis) dan Kedaulatan Pangan Learning Outcomes

Outline Materi Peranan sektor pertanian Sektor pertanian di Indonesia Investasi di Sektor Pertanian Keterkaitan Pertanian dengan Industri Manufaktur Outline Materi

INDIKATOR EKONOMI NTP VS PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

Peranan Sektor Pertanian Peranan sektor pertanian terhadap pertumbuhan Ekonomi Nasional Kontribusi Sektor Pertanian Kontribusi Pasar Peranan Sektor Pertanian

Sektor pertanian di Indonesia (1) Perkembangan sejak awal dekade 1970-an Produksi Padi/Beras Daya saing dan perkembangan ekspor Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan Perkembangan Ekspor beras Sektor pertanian di Indonesia (1)

Sektor pertanian di Indonesia (2) Nilai Tukar Petani Pengertian Nilai Tukar Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Petani di Indonesia Penyebab lemahnya nilai tambah petani Sektor pertanian di Indonesia (2)

Nilai tukar Petani per sub sektor 1 Feb 11 Mar 11 % Perubahan Tanaman Pangan 100.37 100.29 -0.08 Hortikultura 109.90 109.68 -0.19 Tanaman Perkebunan Rakyat 105.79 106.23 0.42 Peternakan 101.60 101.47 -0.13 Perikanan 105.63 105.86 0.21 NTP Nasional 103.33 103.32 -0.01 Nilai tukar Petani per sub sektor

NTP per Propinsi, Maret 2011

Keterkaitan Pertanian dengan Industri Manufaktur Sekolah tinggi Ilmu Statistik Jakarta Keterkaitan Pertanian dengan Industri Manufaktur ekonomi Indonesia Pertemuan 7

INTRODUCTION (1) Agricultural is important: a dynamic source of growth, employment, and better distribution of income; and a source of surpluses to support industrialization Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10

INTRODUCTION (2) Agricultural progress is important: to provide food, raw materials for industrial production, and savings and tax revenue to support development of the rest of the economy; to earn more foreign exchange (or save foreign exchange when previously primary products are imported); and to provide a growing market for domestic manufactures. Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10

INTRODUCTION (3) Contribution of agriculture: If agriculture itself grows, it makes a product contribution If it trades with others, it renders a market contribution If it transfer resources to other sectors, these resources being productive factors, it makes a factor contribution Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10

INTRODUCTION (4) In addition, contribution of agriculture: Labor absorption Poverty reduction: increase in real income among the rural-poverty target groups of small farmers and the landless laborers Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10

MAJOR POLICIES FOR AGRICULTURE AND THE RURAL ECONOMY (from Islam and Chowdhury, 2009) Target: rice self-sufficiency, achieved in mid 1980s Shifted to agricultural exports, coincided with export-oriented industrialization Agricultural diversification and increase in the production of estate crops With income growth, attention was given to income-elastic foods, e.g. fish, meat and highbred poultry for domestic consumption Commercialization of agriculture and a rise of large conglomerates Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10/

MAJOR POLICIES FOR AGRICULTURE AND THE RURAL ECONOMY In the early 1980s: nuclear estate and smallholder (60% area allocated for smallholders) In the latter part of 1980s: the share of estate corporations were increased With deregulation in 1990s: 100% of the estate plantation areas could be owned by large private corporations – domestic or foreign Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10/

SALIENT FEATURES OF INDONESIA’S AGRICULTURAL POLICIES Suharto Era (1): Green revolution; BIMAS programme, fertilizers, and better farming techniques Public investment: irrigation projects and rural infrastructure in 1970s and 1980s under INPRES Extension support: Extension services Credit policies: e.g., KUT via KUD in the 1980s and 1990s, and Kredit Ketahanan Pangan in the 2000s. Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10/

SALIENT FEATURES OF INDONESIA’S AGRICULTURAL POLICIES Suharto Era (2): Input subsidies: Fertilizer subsidies until 1997, withdrawn during 1997-1998. Price support and public procurement: A floor price, and BULOG Protection: rice sector was given protection from imports, withdrawn during 1997-1998. Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10/

SALIENT FEATURES OF INDONESIA’S AGRICULTURAL POLICIES Post Crisis Policy Reforms: Ending of Bulog’s import monoploy over wheat, wheat flour, sugar, soybeans, garlic and rice; Reduction of tariff rates on all food items to a maximum of 5 percent and abolition of local content regulations. Removal of restrictive trade and marketing arrangements for a number of commodities, including local content requirement. Deregulation of trade in agricultural products across districts and provincial boundaries, including for cloves, oranges and livestock. Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10/

SALIENT FEATURES OF INDONESIA’S AGRICULTURAL POLICIES Recent Developments: Strong political pressure to protect domestic food producers on food security grounds. (Tariff) measures for key commodities, e.g. a 27% import tariff for soya beans and a 15% for corn, are considered. NTBs are also contemplated. Proposals for a temporary ban on rice imports during peak harvest, restrictions on sugar imports, and export tax on cocoa (between 5 and 20%). Tariff increases are also considered for chicken legs. Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 10/

SOME FACTS The sector’s share in employment has declined since 1970s, but not as fast as the reduction of its share in GDP (which was due to a much faster increase in value added in both manufacturing and service sectors) It is still the dominant source of employment, and provide a refuge for those who lost their jobs (in 1998 employment share of agriculture rose to 45%) Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 7

SOME FACTS The correlation between output growth and employment during 1993-2007 was -0.24. What does it indicate? Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 7

SOME FACTS Residual nature of agricultural employment: the growth in agricultural employment is driven more by other factors (such as growth in other sectors than by expansion of agricultural output. E.g. in 1998, agricultural output declined by 1.3 %, but the growth rate of agricultural-related employment peaked at around 10%, resulting in an employment elasticity of -7.7, when manufacturing sector collapsed by more than 11%, showing the shock-absorber role of agriculture Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 7

SOME FACTS Like in other typical developing country: agricultural employment is more a result of labor supply than demand. Thus, employment elasticities may not reflect the true labour absorption capacity of agriculture. A better measure is labour-land ratio in agriculture, providing insights into what happen to employment in agriculture over the period of economic growth Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 7

SOME FACTS Distribution of Working Poor by Sector and Area, 2007 Source: Hill, H., M.E. Khan, and J. Zhuang (2012) Sector Urban Rural Total Agriculture 5.2 60.3 65.5 Industry 4.1 9.1 13.2 Services 8.5 12.7 21.2 17.9 82.1 100.0 Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 7

Three subsystems: Food availability Food distribution Food consumption FOOD SECURITY Three subsystems: Food availability Food distribution Food consumption Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 3

FOOD SECURITY World Food Summit 1974: “Food security is availability at all times of adequate food supplies of basic food stuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices.” (UN, 1975). Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 3

FOOD SECURITY + access, especially to those who are vulnerable 1983: + access, especially to those who are vulnerable (availability and access) 1996 and 2002: + safe and nutritious food, and preferred food Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 3

FOOD SECURITY: INDONESIA Factors: Land Infrastructure Technology and Human Resource Energy Capital Wheather Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 3

Jumlah RT Usaha Pertanian, 2003 - 2013 Luas Lahan 2003 2013 < 1000 9.380.300 4.338.847 1000-1999 3.602.348 3.550.185 2000-4999 6.816.943 6.733.364 5000-9999 4.782.812 4.555.075 10000-19999 3.661.529 3.725.865 20000-29999 1.678.356 1.623.434 ≥ 30.000 1.309.896 1.608.699 Jumlah 31.232.184 26.135.469 Daniel Wesley Rudolf Ekonomi Indonesia Kuliah 3