DEMAND PLANNING AND DEMAND MANAGEMENT

Pendahuluan Permintaan thd barang dan jasa adalah awal dari semua kegiatan Suppy Chain Kegiatan itu dilaksanakan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan atau permintaan thd barang atau jasa pada pihak pelanggan Pada prsh yg berproduksi dengan sistem Make to stock (MTS) semua kegiatannya dilakukan sebelum perusahaan tahu berapa produk yang akan terjual di masing toko atau tempat penjualan Pada system produksi make to order (MTO), beberapa aktivitas seperti perakitan akhir dan pembuatan komponen dilakukan atas dasar perkiraan ato ramalan Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Peramalan permintaan Vs Pengelolaan permintaan Kegiatan untuk mengestimasi besarnya permintaan thd barang atau jasa pada suatu periode dan wilayah pemasaran tertentu Demand Management : Adalah upaya untuk membuat permintaan lebih mudah dipenuhi oleh supply chain Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Demand Planning Vs Demand Management Demand planning  the process that an organization takes to anticipate customer demand and ensure sufficient product is available – in the right place, in the right time, to the required level of service and at the lowest possible supply chain costs. Included here are: Demand forecasting Inventory management Capacity planning Production planning and scheduling Materials requirement planning Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Demand Management Actively seeks to ensure that the customer demand ‘profile’ as an input to the demand-planning process is as smooth as possible in order to make supply chain operations easier. In other words, the company is not only passively process the given demand, but is trying to reduce demand volatility, or improving demand stability. Thus, demand planning is REACTIVE, while demand management is PROACTIVE to customer demand. Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Component of Demand Management Forecasting Demand Communicating Demand Influencing Demand Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Demand Planning Vs Demand Management Forecasting Production Planning Production Delivery Demand Planning Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Instruments of Demand Management Pricing Promotion: discounts, rebates, etc. Assortment Shelf management Deal structure: terms and condition, price protection, return policies. Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

How to use those instruments? Understand the impact of changing the levels of these instruments on the demand Incorporate the true supply chain costs corresponding to the demand resulted from the use of these instruments Link demand management and sc planning and execution Carefully monitor and measure actual performance Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Financial Performance Total costs over the planning period: $422,275 Material costs Labor costs Inventory holding costs Stockout costs Layoff costs Hiring and training costs Overtime costs Subcontracting costs Revenue: $640,000 Profit: $217,725 Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Demand Changes: Promotion in January, price $39/unit : 20% increase in demand, 20% forward buying February 2400 March 2560 April 3800 May 2200 June 2200 Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Solution t Ht Lt Wt Ot It St Ct Pt 80 1000 1 15 65 610 2610 2 820 3 80 1000 1 15 65 610 2610 2 820 3 870 4 320 5 90 6 500 Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Financial Performance Costs $421,915 Revenue $643,400 Profit $221,485 Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Demand Changes: Promotion in April, price $39/unit: 20% increase in demand, 20% forward buying January 1600 February 3000 March 3200 April 5060 May 1760 June 1760 Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

WAYS TO REDUCE VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY Close collaboration with business partners, Information sharing with technology Reduce fixed cost components (setup cost, transportation policies, outsourcing, standardization) Reengineer the supply chain (shorten lead time, use local suppliers) New business models (such as Dell’s direct model) Better planning capabilities Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

High SC Visibility Easy to access: POS data Inventory availability in the distribution channels Capacity availability at the manufacturing facilities Promotional plans Early market signals Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) Traditionally: Each function and each supply chain channel could have different forecast figures Plans are developed in isolation from other supply chain channels Minimal communication and coordination between channels takes place for corrective actions when actual production deviates from the plan Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

CPFR CPFR  Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment Prinsip: Supply Chain channels menggunakan forecast yang sama untuk seluruh kegiatan mereka. Mereka juga meng-exploit supply process constraint. Contohnya: short order cycle dengan long production cycle. Caranya bisa dengan memperpendek manufacturing cycle atau memperpanjang order cycle sehingga terjadi sinkronisasi. Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

Kenapa CPFR penting? Setiap channel punya informasi yang berbeda (dimana kalau informasi tersebut dibagi, akurasi forecast bisa ditingkatkan) Contoh informasi: setiap channel punya program promosi yang berbeda, sedangkan manufacturer punya informasi kapasitas. Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

A Leading Pilot Wal-Mart Vs Warner Lambert Now Wal-Mart is engaged with some 600 trading partners Benefits: Promotional planning improvements Service level increases Reduction in inventories Better warehouse utilization Better capacity allocation Dira Ernawati, ST. MT

ELEMENTS OF CPFR PLANNING Develop collaboration arrangement Create joint business plan FORECASTING Create sales forecast Identify exception for sales forecast Resolve/collaborate on exception items Create order forecast Identify exception for order forecast REPLENISHMENT Order generation Dira Ernawati, ST. MT