Hartanto, SIP, MA Program Studi Ilmu Hubungan Internasional Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ekonomi Universitas Respati Yogyakarta 2015.

Presentasi berjudul: "Hartanto, SIP, MA Program Studi Ilmu Hubungan Internasional Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ekonomi Universitas Respati Yogyakarta 2015."— Transcript presentasi:

1 Hartanto, SIP, MA Program Studi Ilmu Hubungan Internasional Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ekonomi Universitas Respati Yogyakarta 2015

2  War is defined as an armed conflict between countries or groups that involves killing or destruction.  An effort to eradicate something harmful. (bloodless war)  Cold War

3  Peace is defined as the freedom from conflict or disagreement among people or groups of people.  Peace Treaty – a formal contract or agreement to end of hostilities between two warring parties.  Treaty of Versailles (WWI)

4 “War is politics…” Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831)  War in History War in History War in History

5  Resources  Territory Land Access to the sea  Ethnicity  Religion  Ideology

6 LevelCause IndividualAggresive Characteristic of Leaders Misperceptions by Leaders Attributes of masses (Innate behavior or flawed character, aggresion) Communication Failure State/SocietyLiberal Capitalist States according to radicals Nonliberal/nondemocratic states according to liberals Domestic Politics/Spacegoating Struggles between groups for economic resources Ethnonational Challengers InternationalAnarchy Lack of an Arbiter Prominence of long cycles of war and peace Power Transitions Aggresiveness of the international capitalist class

7  General War Fenomena abad 20 yang bertujuan untuk menaklukan dan menguasai wilayah musuh yang melibatkan seluruh kekuatan bersenjata dan mempunyai target baik itu militer atau sipil. Contoh World War I dan II  Limited War Perang yang mempunyai tujuan, senjata yang digunakan dan target tertentu. Contoh The Vietnam War, The Korean War and The Gulf War.  Civil War Perang antara faksi-faksi atau kelompok-kelompok dalam suatu negara untuk memperoleh kontrol atas wilayah, atau dalam rangka pendirian sebuah negara.  Terrorism Bentuk perang yang tersembunyi dan membahayakan, seringkali diarahkan untuk melukai warga sipil dan biasanya dilakukan oleh pihak yang lemah terhadap pihak yang kuat dengan menanamkan ketakutan dalam masyarakat.

8 Liberal International Institution coordinate actions to manage power Collective Security (1) Arms Control and Disarmament (2) Realist Reliance on force to manage power Balance of Power (3) Deterrence Liberal/Realist Peacekeeping (First and second generations)

9  Wars are prevented by restraint of military action.  Aggressors must be stopped  The aggressors is easily identified  The aggressors is always wrong  Aggressors know the international community will act against them

10  Fewer weapons means greater security  Regulating the upward spiral of armaments  Reducing the amount of arms and the types weapon employed

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12  Decisionmakers are rational  The threat of destruction from warfare is large  Alternatives to war are available

13 Major War EventFromToLow High Warring States Era, China BC 475 BC 221 10 m An Shi Rebellion, China 756763 36 m Mongol Conquests, Europe, Asia 12071279 30 m 60 m Thirty Years War 16181648 3 m 11.5 m Napoleonic Wars 18041815 3.5 m 16 m Taiping Rebellion, China 18511864 20 m 50 m US Civil War 18611865618,000970,000 Russian Civil War 191719215m 9 m WW I (high includes Spanish Flu) 19141918 15 m 66 m

14 More Major War Chinese Civil War 19451949 1.3 m 6. 1 m 6. 1 m WW II 19391945 60 m 72 m Viet Nam War 19451975 2.5 m 5 m Korean War 19501953 2.5 m 3.5 m Nigerian Civil War 19671970 1 m Afghan Civil War 1979Present 1.5 m 2.0 m Iran-Iraq War 19801988 1.0 m Congo Civil War 19941997800,000800,000 Second Congo War 199820033.8m13.8

15 1. Human Nature?  Thomas Hobbes 1588-1679 Jean-Jacques Rousseau 1712-1788 1712-1788

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23 2. Balance of Power Concert of Europe 1815-1914 England Russia Prussia/Germany France Austria Hungary

24 Bipolarity The Cold War Balance of Power IsraelSyria/Egypt EthiopiaSomalia TaiwanChina S. KoreaN. Korea S. Viet NamN. Viet Nam W. BerlinE. Berlin W. GermanyE. Germany Britain/France/JapanPoland/Czech USUSSR

25 3. Long Cycle Theory (Power Transition) Hegemonic War Winner becomes Hegemon Hegemon rules system Hegemon weakens Challenger Rises

26 Long Cycle One: 1494-1580 Power DominanceDecline   War Portugal War begins Portugal War begins  (Spain v. Portugal)  1494-1516 1540 decline begins1580  Time

27 Long Cycle Two: 1580-1688   Power DominanceDecline  War NetherlandsWar begins (Britain/Neth. v. France)   1580-16091640 decline begins1688 Time

28 Long Cycle Three: 1688-1792 PowerDominance Decline   WarBritain War begins (Napoleonic Wars) (Napoleonic Wars)  1688-1713 1740 decline begins 1792  Time

29 Long Cycle Four: 1792-1914   Power DominanceDecline  War BritainWW I begins  1792-18151850 decline begins1914  Time

30 Long Cycle Five: 1914-?  Power DominanceDecline  WarU.S.US v. China? EU? 1914-19451973 decline 20?? 1914-19451973 decline 20??  begins Time  Source for Cycles 1-4: George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, Seattle, University of Washington Press, 1987.

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32  From: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5564

33 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5564

34 Global Military Expenditures Global Military Expenditures  CountryMilitary spending Budget Period  World $1100 billion 2004 est.  United States $623 billion FY08  Rest-of-World $500 billion 2004 est.  China $65.0 billion 2004 China  Russia$50.0 billion Russia  France$45.0 billion 2005  United Kingdom$42.8 billion 2005 est.  Japan$41.75 billion 2007 Japan  Germany$35.1 billion 2003  Italy$28.2 billion 2003  South Korea $21.1 billion 2003 est.  India$19.0 billion 2005 est. India  Saudi Arabia$18.0 billion 2005 est.  Australia$16.9 billion 2006  North Korea $5.0 billion FY02  Iran$4.3 billion 2003 est.  From: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm

35 4. Nuclear Revolution  HiroshimaNagasaki

36 Who has them? CountryWarheads United States10,000* Russia19,500* China100+ France 350 United Kingdom~200 Israel (estimated)75-200 India (estimated)45-95 Pakistan (estimated)25-50 TOTAL Approx 29,000 From: Arms Control Association, Fact Sheets Arms Control Association, Fact SheetsArms Control Association, Fact Sheets *United States: 5,968 strategic warheads,1 more than 1,000 operational tactical weapons, and approximately 3,000 reserve strategic and tactical warheads; Russia: 4,978 strategic warheads,1 approximately 3,500 operational tactical warheads, and more than 11,000 stockpiled strategic and tactical warheads.

37 Irrationality?  Saddam Hussein, Ahmadinejad, Kim Jong-Il

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