Dosen : Muchdie, PhD in Economics  PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia.  Post Graduate Diploma in Regional.

Presentasi berjudul: "Dosen : Muchdie, PhD in Economics  PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia.  Post Graduate Diploma in Regional."— Transcript presentasi:

1 Dosen : Muchdie, PhD in Economics  PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia.  Post Graduate Diploma in Regional Dev.,1994, Dept. of Economics, The Univ. of Queensland, Australia.  MS in Rural & Regional Development Planning, 1986, Graduate School, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor

2  Peramalan Kualitatif : Survei & Jajak Pendapat  Peramalan Kuantitatif : Analisis Deret Waktu  Peramalan Kuantitatif : Teknik Penghalusan  Peramalan Kuantitatif : Metode Barometrik  Peramalan Kuantitatif : Model Ekonometrik  Peramalan Kuantitatif : Peramalan Input- Output  Ringkasan, Pertanyaan Diskusi, Soal-Soal dan Alamat Situs Internet  Studi Kasus Gabungan 2 : Mengestimasi dan Meramalkan Permintaan Listrik di Amerika Serikat

3  Survey Techniques  Planned Plant and Equipment Spending  Expected Sales and Inventory Changes  Consumers’ Expenditure Plans  Opinion Polls  Business Executives  Sales Force  Consumer Intentions

4  Secular Trend  Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data  Cyclical Fluctuations  Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction  Seasonal Variation  Regularly Occurring Fluctuations  Irregular or Random Influences

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6  Linear Trend: S t = S 0 + b t b = Growth per time period  Constant Growth Rate S t = S 0 (1 + g) t g = Growth rate  Estimation of Growth Rate lnS t = lnS 0 + t ln(1 + g)

7 Ratio to Trend Method Actual Trend Forecast Ratio = Seasonal Adjustment = Average of Ratios for Each Seasonal Period Adjusted Forecast = Trend Forecast Seasonal Adjustment

8 Ratio to Trend Method: Example Calculation for Quarter 1 Trend Forecast for 1996.1 = 11.90 + (0.394)(17) = 18.60 Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for 1996.1 = (18.60)(0.8869) = 16.50

9 Forecast is the average of data from w periods prior to the forecast data point.

10 Forecast is the weighted average of of the forecast and the actual value from the prior period.

11 Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method

12  National Bureau of Economic Research  Department of Commerce  Leading Indicators  Lagging Indicators  Coincident Indicators  Composite Index  Diffusion Index

13 Single Equation Model of the Demand For Cereal (Good X) Q X = a 0 + a 1 P X + a 2 Y + a 3 N + a 4 P S + a 5 P C + a 6 A + e Q X = Quantity of X P X = Price of Good X Y = Consumer Income N = Size of Population P S = Price of Muffins P C = Price of Milk A = Advertising e = Random Error

14 Multiple Equation Model of GNP Reduced Form Equation

15 Three-Sector Input-Output Flow Table

16 Direct Requirements Matrix Direct Requirements Input Requirements Column Total =

17 Total Requirements Matrix

18 = Final Demand Vector Total Demand Vector

19 Revised Input-Output Flow Table

20  Pertanyaan Diskusi :  Setiap mahasiswa memilih 2 (dua) nomor pertanyaan untuk dijawab secara tertulis. Hanya satu nomor pertanyaan yang boleh sama dengan mahasiswa lainnya.  Jawaban dipresentasikan pada pertemuan berikut.  Soal-soal :  Setiap mahasiswa memilih 2 nomor soal dari Soal- soal nomor 1 – 14 untuk dijawab secara tertulis. Hanya satu nomor soal yang boleh sama dengan mahasiswa lainnya.  Jawaban ditulis pada sebuah Buku Tulis yang dikumpulkan pada saat UTS.