PROBLEM ANALYSIS.

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1 PROBLEM ANALYSIS

2 ANTHONY & CLEOPATRA Suatu vila yang cukup menyendiri dengan bangunan berarsitektur Mesir. Suasana tampak sepi di luar, angin berhembus lirih, tetapi memancarkan hawa panas, sepanas musim kemarau di negeri itu. Suasana di dalam vila lebih sepi lagi; di atas lantai ruang tamu ada Anthony dan Cleopatra yang tergeletak mati. Terbaring di atas lantai dengan mata terbuka. Hal yang menarik adalah tidak adanya tanda pembunuhan karena dicekik, diracun, ditikam, atau dipukul dengan benda keras. Tanda yang terlihat di seputar mereka berdua hanyalah pecahan kaca dan ceceran air.

3 TOBI MUGABE Sebuah cocktail party yang diadakan dalam sebuah hotel khusus dihadiri oleh orang-orang dari Afrika Tengah. Acara tersebut sangat formal sehingga semua peserta harus berpakaian serba hitam. Di tengah acara, tiba-tiba lampu mati. Ada peserta yang terkejut dan ada juga yang tidak. Namun petugas hotel tiba-tiba langsung bisa mendekati Pak Tobi Mugabe, pemimpin rombongan dalam pesta tersebut, dan mengatakan, “Pak, tolong bill pemesanan untuk pesta ini ditandatangani”.

4 TRAGIC WEDDING ANNIVERSARY

5 What’s the best way to define or specify a problem
What’s the best way to define or specify a problem? What are the “right” questions to ask? How should you go about isolating and verifying the cause of the problem?

6 DISTINCTIONS & CHANGES
VERIFY LOGIC AND REALITY “PROBLEM ANALYSIS” EXPLAIN A DEVIATION IDENTIFY SHOULD - ACTUAL SPECIFY IS & IS NOT DATA INVESTIGATE DISTINCTIONS & CHANGES TESTING EXPLAIN IS AND IS NOT

7 PROBLEM ANALYSIS Provides the skills needed to explain any situation in which an expected level of performance is not being achieved and in which the cause of the unacceptable performance is unknown

8 ELEMENTS IN COMMON Every problem is based on a discrepancy
Each has its own distinctive characteristics Every problem’s cause is related to change

9 STRUCTURE OF A PROBLEM DEVIATION performance performance SHOULD SHOULD
CHANGE DEVIATION performance PAST ACTUAL PRESENT

10 STRUCTURE OF A DAY ONE PROBLEM
performance SHOULD Some condition required for achievement of the SHOULD NEVER HAS EXISTED or NEVER AS FUNCTIONED CORRECTLY DEVIATION performance ACTUAL PAST DAY ONE PRESENT

11 TECHNIQUES OF PROBLEM ANALYSIS
IDENTIFY THE PROBLEM (Definition of the problem) SPECIFY THE PROBLEM (Description of the problem in four dimensions: IDENTITY, LOCATION, TIMING, MAGNITUDE) INVESTIGATE THE PROBLEM (Extraction of key information in the four dimensions to generate possible causes) TESTING THE MOST PROBABLE CAUSE VERIFY

12 1. IDENTIFY THE PROBLEM We define the problem with the deviation statement or name of the problem Contains two elements: 1. nature of discrepancy 2. subject or object affected Ask ourselves: “Can the effect of this problem as we have describe it in the deviation statement be explained now?”. If it can, we must back up to the point at which we can no longer explain the deviation statement.

13 2. SPECIFY THE PROBLEM A. Describing the Problem:
IDENTITY – what is the problem? LOCATION – where is the problem? TIMING – when is the problem occurring? MAGNITUDE – how serious, how extensive it is? B. Determining the boundaries of the Problem: “IS” and “IS NOT”

14 “IS” and “IS NOT”: A Basis of Comparison
Identify COULD BE but IS NOT data We will be able to identify the peculiar factors that isolate our problem: exactly what it is, where it is observed, when it is observed, and its extent or magnitude Once we have identified bases of comparison in all four dimensions, we are able to isolate key distinguishing features of the problem

15 3. INVESTIGATE THE PROBLEM
DISTINCTIONS As the questions “What is distinctive?” (the IS data compared with the IS NOT data) is applied to all four dimensions of a problem, our analysis begins to reveal important clues to the cause of the problem CHANGES “What changes are most likely to suggest the cause of our problem?” (when the distinction is appreciated as representing a change – its significance as a clue is greatly heightened) GENERATION OF POSSIBLE CAUSES “How could this distinction (or this change) have produced the deviation as described in the deviation statement?”

16 4. TESTING THE MOST PROBABLE CAUSE
Testing for cause is a process of matching the details of a postulated cause with the details of an observed effect to see whether that cause could have produced that effect. The true cause must explain each and every aspect of the deviation, since the true cause created the exact effect we have specified. Testing a possible cause against the specification is an exercise in logic.

17 5. VERIFY To verify a likely cause is to prove that it did produce the observed effect. Verification is easy to perform once you have identified a likely cause. Verification is an independent step taken to prove a cause-and-effect relationship. Verification is possible in most problem situations. What it consists of will depend on the circumstances.

18 Problem Analysis was not developed with improved communication in mind
Problem Analysis was not developed with improved communication in mind. It was developed as a system that would make best use of a people’s natural cause-and-effect thinking pattern

19 case