MANAJEMEN PROYEK Pertemuan 26

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2 MANAJEMEN PROYEK Pertemuan 26
Matakuliah : J Analisis Kuantitatif Bisnis Tahun : 2009/2010 MANAJEMEN PROYEK Pertemuan 26

3 Framework Project Crashing Analisis Biaya Proyek Probabilitas Proyek
Evaluasi Proyek Bina Nusantara University

4 Kembali ke Soal Latihan
Bina Nusantara University

5 ES Earliest Starting (time) EF Earliest Finishing LS Latest Starting
LF Latest Finishing Slack Extra Time Bina Nusantara University

6 Earliest Starting/Finishing Times
EF = ES + t Bina Nusantara University

7 Bina Nusantara University

8 LS = LF - t Bina Nusantara University

9 Bina Nusantara University

10 Bina Nusantara University

11 What if activity times are variable?
a optimistic time m most likely time b pessimistic time t = E(T) expected time = (a + 4m + b)/6 V(T) variance = (b - a)2/36 Bina Nusantara University

12 Contoh Soal Aktivitas Aktivitas Pendahulu Waktu (hari) Optimis
Realistis Pesimis A === 1 2 3 B 4 C D 6 E 7 F 9 G D,E 11 H F,G Bina Nusantara University

13 Buatlah bagan proyeknya Tentukan waktu penyelesaian proyek
Pertanyaan: Buatlah bagan proyeknya Tentukan waktu penyelesaian proyek Jalur kritis proyek Bina Nusantara University

14 Contoh Soal Bina Nusantara University 24

15 Menghitung Waktu yang diharapkan
ET(A)= 3+4(6)+15 6 ET(A)=42/6=7 Bina Nusantara University 25

16 Network Duration = 54 Days A(7) B C(14) D(5) E(11) F(7) H(4) G(11)
(5.333) C(14) D(5) E(11) F(7) H(4) G(11) I(18) Duration = 54 Days Bina Nusantara University

17 Probability Exercise p(t < D) D=53 t TE = 54
What is the probability of finishing this project in less than 53 days? D=53 p(t < D) t TE = 54 Bina Nusantara University

18 (Sum the variance along the critical path.)
Bina Nusantara University

19 p(Z < -.156) = .5 - .0636 = .436, or 43.6 % (Appendix E)
p(t < D) t TE = 54 D=53 p(Z < -.156) = = .436, or 43.6 % (Appendix E) There is a 43.6% probability that this project will be completed in less than 53 weeks. Bina Nusantara University