Permintaan Agregat I: Membangun AKU S -LM Model

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1 Permintaan Agregat I: Membangun AKU S -LM Model
10 Permintaan Agregat I: Membangun AKU S -LM Model This chapter sets up the IS-LM model, which chapter 11 then uses extensively to analyze the effects of policies and economic shocks. This chapter also introduces students to the Keynesian Cross and Liquidity Preference models, which underlie the IS curve and LM curve, respectively. If you would like to spend less time on this chapter, you might consider omitting the Keynesian Cross, instead using the loanable funds model from Chapter 3 to derive the IS curve. Advantage: students are already familiar with the loanable funds model, so skipping the KC means one less model to learn. Additionally, the KC model is not used anywhere else in this textbook. Once it’s used to derive IS, it disappears for good. However, there are some good reasons for NOT omitting the KC model: 1) Many principles textbooks (though not Mankiw’s) cover the KC model; students who learned the KC model in their principles class may benefit from seeing it here, as a bridge to the new material on the IS curve. 2) The KC model is of historical importance. One could argue that anybody graduating from college with a degree in economics should be familiar with the KC model.

2 Dalam bab ini, Anda akan belajar ...
itu AKU S kurva, dan hubungannya dengan perpotongan Keynesian model dana pinjaman itu LM kurva, dan hubungannya dengan teori preferensi likuiditas bagaimana AKU S-LM Model menentukan pendapatan dan tingkat bunga dalam jangka pendek ketika P telah diperbaiki BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

3 Konteks Bab 9 memperkenalkan model permintaan agregat dan penawaran agregat. Jangka panjang harga fleksibel Output ditentukan oleh faktor-faktor produksi & teknologi pengangguran sama tingkat alamiah Lari jarak pendek harga tetap Output ditentukan oleh permintaan agregat pengangguran negatif terkait dengan keluaran BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

4 Konteks Bab ini mengembangkan AKU S-LM Model, dasar kurva permintaan agregat. Kami fokus pada jangka pendek dan menganggap tingkat harga adalah tetap (jadi, SRAS kurva adalah horisontal). Bab ini (dan pasal 11) fokus pada kasus tertutup ekonomi. Bab 12 menyajikan kasus open-ekonomi. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

5 The Keynesian Salib Sebuah model ekonomi sederhana tertutup di mana pendapatan ditentukan oleh pengeluaran. (karena J.M. Keynes) Notasi: Aku = Direncanakan investasi E = C + Aku + G = Pengeluaran yang direncanakan Y = PDB riil = pengeluaran aktual Perbedaan antara pengeluaran aktual & direncanakan = investasi persediaan yang tidak direncanakan BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

6 Elemen dari Keynesian Salib
fungsi konsumsi: variabel kebijakan pemerintah: untuk saat ini, direncanakan investasi eksogen: pengeluaran yang direncanakan: Stress that much of this model is very familiar to students: same consumption function as in previous chapters, same treatment of fiscal policy variables. Note: In equilibrium, there is no unplanned inventory investment. Firms are selling everything they had intended to sell. Kondisi ekuilibrium: pengeluaran aktual = pengeluaran yang direncanakan BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

7 Grafik pengeluaran yang direncanakan
berencana pengeluaran E =C+Aku+G MPC 1 Why slope of E line equals the MPC: With I and G exogenous, the only component of (C+I+G) that changes when income changes is consumption. A one-unit increase in income causes consumption---and therefore E---to increase by the MPC. Recall from Chapter 3: the marginal propensity to consume, MPC, equals the increase in consumption resulting from a one-unit increase in disposable income. Since T is exogenous here, a one-unit increase in Y causes a one-unit increase in disposable income. pendapatan, output, Y BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

8 Grafik kondisi ekuilibrium
berencana pengeluaran E =Y 45º pendapatan, output, Y BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

9 Nilai pendapatan ekuilibrium
berencana pengeluaran E =Y E =C+Aku+G The equilibrium point is the value of income where the curves cross. Be sure your students understand why the equilibrium income appears on the horizontal and vertical axes. Answer: In equilibrium, E (which is measured on the vertical) equals Y (which is measured on the horizontal). Kesetimbangan pendapatan pendapatan, output, Y BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

10 Kenaikan belanja pemerintah
Y E E =Y Di Y1. sekarang ada penurunan yang tidak direncanakan dalam persediaan ... E =C+Aku+G2 E =C+Aku+G1 G ... Jadi perusahaan meningkatkan output, dan pendapatan naik menuju keseimbangan baru. Explain why the vertical distance of the shift in the E curve equals G: At any value of Y, an increase in G by the amount G causes an increase in E by the same amount. At Y1, there is now an unplanned depletion of inventories, because people are buying more than firms are producing (E > Y). E1 = Y1 Y E2 = Y2 BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

11 Pemecahan untuk Y kondisi ekuilibrium perubahan karena Aku eksogen
karena C = MPC Y Mengumpulkan istilah dengan Y di sisi kiri tanda sama dengan: Memecahkan Y : BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

12 Pembelian pemerintah multiplier
Definisi: peningkatan pendapatan yang dihasilkan dari $ 1 kenaikan G. Dalam model ini, pemerintah yang pembelian multiplier sama Contoh: Jika MPC = 0,8, maka The textbook defines the multiplier as the increase in income resulting from a $1 increase in G. However, G is a real variable (as is Y ). So, if you wish to be more precise, then you might consider defining the multiplier as “the increase in income resulting from a one-unit increase in G.” Peningkatan G menyebabkan pendapatan untuk meningkatkan 5 kali sama banyak! BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

13 Mengapa multiplier lebih besar dari 1
Awalnya, peningkatan G menyebabkan peningkatan yang sama dalam Y: Y = G. Tapi Y  C  lanjut Y  lanjut C Jadi dampak akhir pada pendapatan jauh lebih besar daripada awal G. Students are better able to understand this if given a more concrete example, which you can explain as you display the elements on this slide. For instance, Suppose the government spends an additional $100 million on defense. Then, the revenues of defense firms increase by $100 million, all of which becomes income to somebody: some of it is paid to the workers and engineers and managers, the rest is profit paid as dividends to shareholders. Hence, income rises $100 million (Y = $100 million = G ). The people whose income just rose by $100 million are also consumers, and they will spend the fraction MPC of this extra income. Suppose MPC = 0.8, so C rises by $80 million. To be concrete, suppose they buy $80 million worth of Ford Explorers. Then, Ford sees its revenues increase by $80 million, all of which becomes income to somebody - either Ford’s workers, or its shareholders (Y = $80 million). And what do these folks do with this extra income? They spend the fraction MPC (0.8) of it, causing C = $64 million (8/10 of $80 million). Suppose they spend all $64 million on Hershey’s chocolate bars, the ones with the bits of mint cookie inside. Then, Hershey Foods Corporation experiences a revenue increase of $64 million, which becomes income to somebody or other. (Y = $64 million). So far, the total impact on income is $100 million + $80 million + $64 million, which is much bigger than the government’s initial increase in spending. But this process continues, and the final impact on Y is $500 million (because the multiplier is 5). BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

14 Peningkatan pajak E C=MPC T Y Y E =C1 +Aku+G E =C2 +Aku+G E2 = Y2
Awalnya, kenaikan pajak mengurangi konsumsi, dan oleh karena itu E: E =C1 +Aku+G E =C2 +Aku+G Di Y1, Sekarang ada yang tidak direncanakan persediaan penumpukan ... C=MPC T ... Jadi perusahaan mengurangi produksi, dan pendapatan jatuh menuju keseimbangan baru Experiment: An increase in taxes (note: the book does a decrease in taxes) Suppose taxes are increased by T. Because I and G are exogenous, they do not change. However, C depends on (YT). So, at the initial value of Y, a tax increase of T causes disposable income to fall by T, which causes consumption to fall by MPC  T. Because consumption falls, the change in C is negative: C =  MPC  T C is part of planned expenditure. The fall in C causes the E line to shift down by the size of the initial drop in C. At the initial value of output, there is now unplanned inventory investment: Sales have fallen below output, so the unsold output adds to inventory. In this situation, firms will reduce production, causing total output, income, and expenditure to fall. The new equilibrium is at Y2, where planned expenditure once again equals actual expenditure/output, and unplanned inventory investment is again equal to zero. E2 = Y2 Y E1 = Y1 BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

15 Pemecahan untuk Y Kondisi eq'm perubahan Aku dan G eksogen
Hasil akhir: BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

16 Multiplier pajak def: perubahan pendapatan yang dihasilkan dari $ 1 kenaikan T: Jika MPC = 0,8, maka multiplier pajak sama BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

17 Multiplier pajak …aku s negatif: Sebuah kenaikan pajak mengurangi C. yang mengurangi pendapatan. …aku s lebih besar dari satu (nilai absolut): Perubahan pajak memiliki multiplier effect terhadap pendapatan. …aku s lebih kecil dari pemerintah belanja multiplier: Konsumen menyimpan fraksi (1 - MPC) Dari pemotongan pajak, sehingga dorongan awal pengeluaran dari pemotongan pajak adalah lebih kecil dari dari peningkatan yang sama dalam G. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

18 Olahraga: Gunakan grafik perpotongan Keynesian untuk menunjukkan efek dari peningkatan investasi yang direncanakan pada tingkat pendapatan ekuilibrium / output. This in-class exercise not only gives students practice with the model, it also helps them understand the next topic: the derivation of the IS curve. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

19 The AKU S melengkung def: grafik semua kombinasi r dan Y yang menghasilkan keseimbangan pasar barang yaitu pengeluaran yang sebenarnya (output) = Pengeluaran yang direncanakan Persamaan untuk AKU S kurva adalah: BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

20 Menderivasi AKU S melengkung
E=Y Y E E=C+Aku (r2 ) +G r  Aku E=C+Aku (r1 ) +G  E Aku  Y Y1 Y2 r Y r1 r2 AKU S Y1 Y2 BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

21 Mengapa AKU S kurva adalah kemiringan negatif
Penurunan suku bunga memotivasi perusahaan untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran investasi, yang mendorong total pengeluaran yang direncanakan (E ). Untuk mengembalikan keseimbangan di pasar barang, keluaran (a.k.a. pengeluaran yang sebenarnya, Y ) harus meningkat. This slide simply states the intuition behind the graphs on the preceding slide. Suggestion: Omit this slide from your presentation, and just give the students this information verbally as you present the preceding slide. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

22 The AKU S kurva dan dana pinjaman Model
(Sebuah) Model L.F. (b) The AKU S melengkung Aku (r ) S.Aku r r Y S2 S1 Y2 Y1 r2 r2 r1 The IS curve can also be derived from the (hopefully now familiar) loanable funds model from chapter 3. A decrease in income from Y1 to Y2 causes a fall in national saving. (Recall, S = Y-C-G) The fall in saving causes a reduction in the supply of loanable funds. The interest rate must rise to restore equilibrium to the loanable funds market. Now we can see where the IS curve gets its name: When the loanable funds market is in equilibrium, investment = saving. The IS curve shows all combinations of r and Y such that investment (I) equals saving (S). Hence, “IS curve.” r1 AKU S BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

23 Kebijakan fiskal dan AKU S melengkung
Kita dapat menggunakan AKU S-LM Model untuk melihat bagaimana kebijakan fiskal (G dan T ) Mempengaruhi permintaan agregat dan output. Mari kita mulai dengan menggunakan perpotongan Keynesian untuk melihat bagaimana kebijakan fiskal menggeser AKU S kurva ... BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

24 Menggeser AKU S kurva: G
E=Y Y E E=C+Aku (r1 ) +G2 Pada setiap nilai r, G  E  Y E=C+Aku (r1 ) +G1 …jadi AKU S kurva bergeser ke kanan. Jarak horizontal dari AKU S equals pergeseran Y1 Y2 r Y r1 This slide has two purposes. First, to show which way the IS curve shifts when G changes. Second, to actually measure the distance of the shift. We can measure either the horizontal or vertical distance of the shift. The horizontal distance of the IS curve shift is the change in Y required to restore goods market equilibrium AT THE INITIAL INTEREST RATE when G is raised. Since the interest rate is unchanged at r1, investment will also be unchanged. This is why, in the upper panel, we write “I(r1)” in the E equation for both expenditure curves – to remind us that investment and the interest rate are not changing. Y AKU S2 AKU S1 Y1 Y2 BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

25 Latihan: Pergeseran kurva IS
Gunakan diagram Keynesian salib atau dana pinjaman Model untuk menunjukkan bagaimana peningkatan pajak menggeser AKU S kurva. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

26 Teori Preferensi Likuiditas
Karena John Maynard Keynes. Sebuah teori sederhana di mana suku bunga ditentukan oleh pasokan uang dan permintaan uang. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

27 Suplai uang Pasokan uang riil saldo telah diperbaiki: r M / P bunga
laju Pasokan uang riil saldo telah diperbaiki: We are assuming a fixed supply of real money balances because P is fixed by assumption (short-run), and M is an exogenous policy variable. M / P keseimbangan uang riil BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

28 Permintaan uang Permintaan uang riil saldo: L (r ) r M / P bunga laju
As we learned in chapter 4, the nominal interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money (instead of bonds), so money demand depends negatively on the nominal interest rate. Here, we are assuming the price level is fixed, so  = 0 and r = i. M / P keseimbangan uang riil BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

29 Kesetimbangan r bunga laju The menyesuaikan tingkat suku bunga menyamakan penawaran dan permintaan uang: r1 L (r ) M / P keseimbangan uang riil BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

30 Bagaimana Fed menaikkan tingkat bunga
r bunga laju Meningkatkan r, Fed mengurangi M r2 r1 L (r ) M / P keseimbangan uang riil BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

31 STUDI KASUS: Moneter Pengetatan & Suku Bunga
Oktober 1979: Ketua Fed Paul Volcker mengumumkan bahwa kebijakan moneter akan bertujuan untuk mengurangi inflasi Agustus 1979-April 1980: Fed mengurangi M/P 8,0% Jan 1983:  = 3,7% This and the next slide summarize the case study on p The data source is given on the next slide. At this point, students have now learned two theories about the effects of monetary policy on interest rates. This case study shows them that both theories are relevant, using a real-world example to remind students that the classical theory of chapter 4 applies in the long-run while the liquidity preference theory applies in the short run. Bagaimana menurut Anda perubahan kebijakan ini akan mempengaruhi tingkat bunga nominal? BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

32 Pengetatan moneter & Tarif, cont.
ramalan sebenarnya hasil Efek dari pengetatan moneter pada tingkat bunga nominal harga model jangka panjang lari jarak pendek Preferensi likuiditas (Keynesian) Kuantitas teori, efek Fisher (Klasik) lengket fleksibel Since prices are sticky in the short run, the Liquidity Preference Theory predicts that both the nominal and real interest rates will rise in the short run. And in fact, both did. (However, the inflation rate was not zero, and in fact it increased, so the real interest rate didn’t rise as much as the nominal interest rate did during the period shown.) In the long run, the Quantity Theory of Money says that the monetary tightening should reduce inflation. The Fisher Effect says that the fall in  should cause an equal fall in i. By January of 1983 (which is “the long run” from the viewpoint of 1979), inflation and nominal interest rates had fallen. (However, they did not fall by equal amounts. This doesn’t contradict the Fisher Effect, though, as other economic changes caused movements in the real interest rate.) About the data: i = 3-month rate on Commercial Paper % change in M/P from previous slide: I computed M1/CPI (the measure used in the case study), then computed the percentage change in M1/CPI over the 8-month period beginning with the month in which Volcker became the Fed chairman, August 1979. Source: FRED database, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. i > 0 i <0 8/1979: i = 10,4% 4/1980: i = 15,8% 8/1979: i = 10,4% 1/1983: i = 8,2%

33 The LM melengkung Sekarang mari kita menempatkan Y kembali ke fungsi permintaan uang: The LM melengkung adalah grafik dari semua kombinasi r dan Y yang menyamakan penawaran dan permintaan untuk keseimbangan uang riil. Persamaan untuk LM kurva adalah: BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

34 Menderivasi LM melengkung
L (r . Y2 ) (Sebuah) Pasar untuk keseimbangan uang riil (b) The LM melengkung L (r . Y1 ) M / P r r Y LM Y1 Y2 r2 r2 r1 r1 BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

35 Mengapa LM kurva miring ke atas
Peningkatan pendapatan meningkatkan permintaan uang. Karena pasokan keseimbangan riil adalah tetap, sekarang ada kelebihan permintaan di pasar uang pada tingkat bunga awal. Tingkat bunga harus naik untuk mengembalikan keseimbangan di pasar uang. This slide simply states the intuition behind the graphs on the preceding slide. Suggestion: Omit this slide from your presentation, and just give the students this information verbally as you present the preceding slide. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

36 Bagaimana M menggeser LM melengkung
(Sebuah) Pasar untuk keseimbangan uang riil (b) The LM melengkung L (r . Y1 ) M / P r r Y LM2 Y1 LM1 r2 r2 r1 If you’re as anal as I am, you might consider helping your students understand the analytical difference between looking at a shift as a horizontal shift and looking at it as a vertical shift. We can think of the LM curve shift as a vertical shift: When the Fed reduces M, the vertical distance of the shift tells us what happens to the equilibrium interest rate associated with a given value of income. Or, we can think of the LM curve shifting horizontally: When the Fed reduces M, the horizontal distance of the shift tells us what would have to happen to income to restore money market equilibrium at the initial interest rate. (The graphical analysis would be a little different than what’s depicted on this slide.) r1 BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

37 Latihan: Pergeseran kurva LM
Misalkan gelombang penipuan kartu kredit menyebabkan konsumen untuk menggunakan uang tunai lebih sering dalam transaksi. Menggunakan model preferensi likuiditas untuk menunjukkan bagaimana peristiwa ini menggeser LM kurva. Answer: This causes an increase in money demand. In the Liquidity Preference diagram, the money demand curve shifts up. Hence, at the the initial value of income, the interest rate must rise to restore equilibrium in the money market. As a result, the LM curve shifts up: each value of income (such as the initial income) is associated with a higher interest rate than before. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

38 Ekuilibrium jangka pendek
Jangka pendek ekuilibrium adalah kombinasi r dan Y yang secara bersamaan memenuhi kondisi keseimbangan di pasar barang & uang: Y r LM AKU S Kesetimbangan bunga laju Kesetimbangan tingkat pendapatan BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

39 The Big Picture AKU S melengkung Keynesian Lintas IS-LM model
Penjelasan fluktuasi jangka pendek Teori Preferensi Likuiditas LM melengkung Agg. permintaan melengkung Model Agg. Permintaan dan Agg. Persediaan Figure 10-15, p.300. This schematic diagram shows how the different pieces of the theory of short-run fluctuations fit together. Agg. persediaan melengkung BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

40 Preview dari Bab 11 Dalam Bab 11, kita akan
menggunakan IS-LM Model untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan dan guncangan. belajar bagaimana kurva permintaan agregat berasal dari IS-LM. menggunakan IS-LM dan AD-AS model sama untuk menganalisis jangka pendek dan efek jangka panjang dari guncangan. menggunakan model kami untuk belajar tentang Depresi besar. This slide serves as a bridge between this chapter and the next one. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya

41 Bab Ringkasan model dasar dari penentuan pendapatan
Lintas Keynesian model dasar dari penentuan pendapatan mengambil kebijakan fiskal & investasi eksogen kebijakan fiskal memiliki efek multiplier terhadap pendapatan. AKU S melengkung berasal dari lintas Keynesian ketika investasi yang direncanakan tergantung negatif pada tingkat bunga menunjukkan semua kombinasi r dan Y yang menyamakan pengeluaran yang direncanakan dengan pengeluaran aktual atas barang & jasa BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya meluncur 40

42 Bab Ringkasan model dasar dari penentuan tingkat bunga
Teori Preferensi Likuiditas model dasar dari penentuan tingkat bunga mengambil uang beredar & tingkat harga sebagai eksogen peningkatan jumlah uang beredar menurunkan tingkat bunga LM melengkung berasal dari teori preferensi likuiditas saat permintaan uang bergantung secara positif pada pendapatan menunjukkan semua kombinasi r dan Y bahwa permintaan menyamakan keseimbangan uang riil dengan pasokan BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya meluncur 41

43 Bab Ringkasan IS-LM model
Persimpangan AKU S dan LM kurva menunjukkan titik unik (Y.r ) Yang memenuhi ekuilibrium di kedua barang dan pasar uang. BAB 10 Permintaan Agregat Saya meluncur 42