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PROSPEK EKONOMI INDONESIA 2010 15 Oktober 2009 PROSPEK EKONOMI INDONESIA 2010 Faisal Basri 15 Oktober 2009
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Bagian I Perkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini
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The world economy is facing a deep downturn in 2009 Description Jul 08Oct 08Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 Jul 09Oct 09 World GDP growth, % 3.9 3.0 2.2 0.5-0.8-1.3 -1.4-1.1 -United States 0.8 0.1-0.7-1.6-2.6-2.8 -2.6-2.7 -Euro Area 1.2 0.2-0.5-2.0-3.2-4.2 -4.8-4.2 -Japan 1.5 0.5-0.2-2.6-5.8-6.2 -6.0-5.4 -Developing economies 6.7 6.1 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.6 1.51.7 -China 9.8 9.3 8.5 6.7- 6.5 7.58.5 -Asean-5 5.6 5.5 4.5 2.7- 0.0 -0.30.7 World trade growth, % 6.04.1 2.0-2.8--11.0 -12.2-11.9 Not available. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues. In the most severe recession since WW II, the global economy is projected to shrink by 1.1 percent in 2009, with slow (sluggish) recovery next year. It’s been a lousy year for forecasters all over the world.)
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Global recessions: selected indicators Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2009, p. 14. Percent change, unless otherwise indicated
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Factory-sector gains signal global recovery Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125182281356876589.html#mod=article-outset-box The U.S., Asia and Europe made gains in manufacturing this summer, which may indicate faster-than- expected economic growth for the remainder of the year.
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Euro Zone: green shoots Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/14euro_graphic_ready.html The two largest economies of the 16-country euro zone, Germany and France, grew in the second quarter after falling for four quarters.
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Europe’s surge signals hope for economic recovery Workers at a foundry in Schmiedeberg, in eastern Germany. Europe’s economy strengthened unexpectedly in the second quarter, indicating the recession would likely end later this year. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/14/business/global/14euro.html?_r=1&ref=global-home EU Economy to Return to Growth, Commission Says gross domestic product will return to positive territory in the third quarter. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125291620207008139.html
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Business confidence is surging across EU and BRIC –FT, 10 August 2009, p.1 Business confidence is surging across European manufacturing, with the UK and Italy taking the lead. Optimism about production trends is back at levels seen before the intensification of the global slowdown late last year, and points to a clear growth in manufacturing activity by the middle of 2010. The so-called “Bric” countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – have also seen a strong rebound in manufacturing confidence,..
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Emerging Asia: an astonishing rebound The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter ( China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore ) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10%. Source: From The Economist print edition, Aug 13th 2009. Hong Kong joins Asia’s rapid climb out of recession. Hong Kong’s economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, more than analysts had expected, adding to evidence that the recovery was solidifying in much of Asia, according to data published Friday. China, Singapore and South Korea have reported rebounds during the April-to-June period. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15asiaecon.html?ref=global-business.
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Change in value of exports (year-over-year) Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/20090815_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html
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U.S.: The case for optimism Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic Sure, it has been a harrowing storm. And now is no time to discount the dangers that still exist. But opening your mind to optimism can help you seize the opportunities ahead.... http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/09_34/B4144optimism.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories
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U.S. economic contraction slowed in quarter Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/01/business/economy/01econ.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
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Deepening the pain: job losses pile up Job losses since the recession began in December 2007. Unemployment rate jump to 9.8% in September 2009, a 26-year high. Source: U.S. Labor Department.
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U.S. consumer confidence index Indeks kepercayaan konsumen adalah salah satu leading economic indicator bagi perekonomian. Setelah mengalami penurunan pada bulan Juni dan Juli, consumer Confidence Index naik tajam pada bulan Agustus menjadi 54.1 dari 47.4 sebulan sebelumnya. Source: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm
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U.S. economy is still weak * Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index Sources: Bloomberg Home Price Index* (Composite-20) Inventory (% YoY) Unemploy- ment Rate (%) Inflation (% YoY) Capacity Utilizat- ion (%) 2008-Jul166.36 7.85.8 5.678.6 2008-Aug164.64 8.66.2 5.477.6 2008-Sep161.64 7.06.2 4.974.5 2008-Oct158.09 6.26.6 3.775.4 2008-Nov154.50 4.96.8 1.174.4 2008-Dec150.54 2.17.2 0.172.7 2009-Jan146.35-0.37.6 0.071.2 2009-Feb143.11-2.28.1 0.270.7 2009-Mar140.04-4.28.5-0.469.4 2009-Apr139.22-5.38.9-0.769.0 2009-May139.91-6.59.4-1.368.3 2009-Jun141.86 n.a.9.5 -1.468.1 2009-Jul n.a. 9.4 -2.168.5 2009-Aug n.a. 9.7 -1.5n.a. 2009-Sepn.a. 9.8 n.a.
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Bagian II Perekonomian Indonesia
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The transmission of stress Sources: IMF, April 2009.
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Sumber daya tahan Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS. Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan beberapa terbaik. Current account masih surplus. Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil. Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS, Eropa, dan Jepang sudah menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean. Ruang gerak untuk stimulus fiskal cukup leluasa. Harga minyak sempat turun ke level di bawah $50 per barrel. Ketahanan pangan terjaga (a.l: komponen makanan dalam CPI mengalami deflasi berturut-turut dalam 4 bulan terakhir). Bonus: situasi politik yang memburuk di Thailand dan kurang kondusif di Malaysia; dan daya saing meningkat tajam.
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Countries more dependent on exports will likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown Source: Asian Development Bank, The AsiIa Economic Monitor (AEM), July 2009, p. 5.
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Direction of trade: Asean and Indonesia From To 2000200720002007 Developing Asia37,441,233,137,1 China 3,7 8,9 4,2 8,1 Japan12,6 9,422,118,1 United States18,212,213,0 9,4 European Union14,411,113,710,0 Others13,717,213,717,3 Sources: ADB, March 2009 AseanIndonesia Ingat: Peran Singapura !!!
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Ruang gerak stimulus fiskal WSJ, March 21, 2009 Stimulus Dilemma for China Spending on Public Works Risks Making Production Glut Worse http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759537916001075.html Pertumbuhan ekonomi Singapura tahun 2009 terjun bebas. Pemerintah “pasrah.” Stimulus jangka pendek sangat terbatas, karena hampir tak ada ruang gerak untuk pembenahan infrastruktur fisik. Segalanya sudah tersedia dengan kualitas prima.
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The World competitiveness scoreboard Country2003200420052006200720082009 USA1111111 Singapore4233223 Hong Kong10622332 Switzerland91488644 Australia74961277 China27222918151720 Taiwan17121117181323 Malaysia21162622231918 India42303327 2930 Korea32312732293127 Thailand28262529332726 Philippines41434042454043 Indonesia49 5052545142 Venezuela51 5355 57 Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2009.
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Economic temperature cooler.. percent 2002 2003 2004 4.6 Source: BPS. 2005 Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % 18.4 2006 14.6 2.8 200720082009
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BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen Source: Bank Indonesia.
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Heart beat has been appreciating... Source: Bank Indonesia (Rupiah per US$)
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Foreign reserves increased more than $7 bil. Source: Bank Indonesia. SBY era (US$ million)
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Bloomberg commodity price index Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008 Too big, too high External vulnerability: regional comparison – economic perception Should be here
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JSX index recovered significantly Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18. (Jakarta composite index)
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Balance of payments (US$ million) Source: Bank Indonesia. 2008Q3-08Q4-08Q1-09Q2-09H1-09 I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 285 -891 -684 2,885 3,104 5,989 A. Goods, net (Trade Balance) 22,916 5,771 4,166 6,969 8,70515,674 1. Exports, f.o.b. 139,606 38,081 29,768 24,205 27,50951,714 2. Imports, f.o.b. -116,690 -32,309 -25,603 -17,236 -18,80536,041 B. Services, net -12,745 -3,195 -3,288 -2,535 -3,097-5,632 C. Income, net -15,271 -4,803 -2,879 -2,672 -3,7146,386 D. Current Transfers, net 5,385 1,336 1,317 1,122 1,2102,332 II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT -1,354 904 -3,340 1,750 -2,414-664 A. Capital Account 294 187 29 19 2948 B. Financial Account -1,648 717 -3,368 1,731 -2,443-712 1. Direct investment 2,799 404 2,061 1,660 91,669 2. Portfolio investment 1,721 -74- 4,377 1,859 2,0033,862 3. Other investment -6,167 387 -1,052 -1,788 -4,455-6,243 III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS -876 -103 -188 -680 362-318 IV. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS 1,945 89 4,212 -3,955 -1,052-5,007
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Indonesia’s post-crisis journey Source: BPS. 6.6 Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, % Crisis peak Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky” Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction 5.2 6.4 4.4 4.0 6.4
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Low quality — Sectoral growth rate (2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %) 20072008 Q1-09Q2-09H1-09H1-Share Tradable3.93.4 2.61.932.348.4 Agriculture3.44.8 5.22.43.714.0 Mining & Quarrying2.00.5 2.4 8.2 Manufacturing4.73.7 1.5 26.2 Non-Tradable8.88.7 6.16.26.051.7 Electricity, Gas & Water10.310.9 11.415.413.40.8 Construction8.67.3 6.36.46.3 Trade, Hotel & Rest.8.47.2 0.5-0.10.216.6 Transport & Comm.14.016.7 17.117.517.38.7 Finance8.08.2 6.35.35.89.7 Services6.66.4 6.87.47.19.6 GDP6.36.1 4.44.04.2100.0 Source: BPS.
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Low quality growth, 2000-2009* (%) * January-June. Source: BPS. Non-tradable GDP Tradable
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GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %) Source: BPS.. Description200620072008Q1Q2H1 H1-Share Private consumption3,25,05,36,04,85,457,1 Government consumption9,63,910,419,217,018,07,1 Fixed investment2,69,411,73,42,73,023,2 Domestic demand3,66,07,46,25,35,887,5 Exports9,48,59,5-18,7-15,7-17,223,7 Imports8,69,010,0-26,0-23,9-24,920,6 GDP5,56,36,14,44,04,2100,0 2009
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Foreign merchandise trade 2006200720082009*200620072008 2009* Total export 100.8114.1136.870.317.713.119.9-26.3 Non-oil and gas 79.692.0107.860.019.815.578.8-18.3 Oil and gas 21.222.129.010.3 4.121.2-53.1 Total import 61.174.5105.159.45.821.941.1-34.3 Non-oil and gas 42.152.574.848.64.624.842.4-27.1 Oil and gas 19.021.930.310.78.615.538.0-54.7 Surplus (Deficit) 39.739.631.710.9 Non-oil and gas 37.539.533.011.4 Oil and gas 2.20.2(1.3)(0.4) Billion US$ Growth (yoy) Description Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni (m-to-m) * January-August Source: BPS.
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Trade balance of oil and oil products 200220032004200520062007 20082009* Crude Oil Exports5,2285,6216,2418,1468,1699,22612,4194,589 Imports3,2173,9285,8316,7977,8539,05710,0444,256 (X - M) 2,0111,6944101,3493161692,375333 Oil Products Exports1,3081,5481,6541,9322,8442,8793,3791,262 Imports3,3093,5835,89210,64611,08012,78720,1656,110 (X - M) - 2,001-2,035-4,238-8,714-8,236-9,908-16,786-4,848 Total Exports6,5357,1697,89610,07811,01312,10515,7985,851 Imports6,5267,51011,72417,44318,93321,84430,20910,366 (X - M) 10-342-3,828-7,365-7,920-9,739-14,411-4,515 * January-July. Source: BPS.
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Trade balance of oil and gas * January-February. Source: Badan Pusat Statistik. US$ million
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Indeks produksi industri bulanan Sumber: BPS.
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Otomotif dan sepeda motor mulai naik..
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Konsumsi semen naik ke level tertinggi
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Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals Sources: BPS Visitors: Jan-Jul 2008 = 3,469,968 Jan-Jul 2009 = 3,558,887 Growth: Jul 2009 (m-t-m) = 7.78% Jan-Jul 2009 (y-o-y) = 2.56%
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Indeks tendensi konsumen Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.
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Indeks tendensi bisnis Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.
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Bagian III Lingkungan Politik dan Kecenderungan Pasca Pemilu dan Pilpres
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Decoupling between politics and economic activities? Approximately 1500 delegates from 35 countries attended the 5 th World Islamic Economic Forum, in Jakarta, 1-4 March 2009. World Ocean Conference, to be held in Manado on May 11-14, 2009. The 42 th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank will be held in Bali, 4-5 May 2009. The Seminar Series and other ancillary meetings will commence from 2 May 2009.Board of Governors Jakarta International Java Jazz Festival, held on 6-8 March 2009. The festival's 19 stages featured more than 300 performances. There isn't a jazz festival larger than Java Jazz Festival in this part of the world.
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Dua kali pemilu pascareformasi berlangsung sangat damai. Masih ada euphoria demokrasi sejalan dengan proses konsolidasi demokrasi, utamanya penguatan kelembagaan. Tidak terjadi kristalisasi kutub-kutub ekstrem, baik kiri maupun kanan konvergensi ideologi atau, bahkan, non-ideologis. Praktis tak terjadi perubahan rezim. Yang sekarang bercokol adalah pentolan-pentolan Orde Baru: Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko Kesra kompromistik. Kecenderungan umum
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Jumlah partai di DPR akan menciut dengan pemberlakuan parliamentary threshold 2,5 persen. Berdasarkan hasil pemilu 2009 hanya ada 9 (sembilan) partai. Pengelompokan antara partai berkuasa dan partai oposisi akan lebih tegas. Bisa menghasilkan pemerintahan dan checks & balances yang lebih efektif. Penciutan jumlah partai
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Partai “kiri” tak ada yang lolos. Partai “kiri-tengah” merosot: PDIP Partai “kanan” melorot tajam (PPP), banyak pula yang tak lolos (PBB, PBR, PDS, PKNU, dll.) Partai “kanan-tengah” merosot (PKB dan PAN) Partai tengah menggelembung (PD, Golkar, Gerindra, Hanura) Kian konvergen
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Peluang jangan disia-siakan Tidak membutuhkan proses transisi yang panjang, karena incumbent. Pilpres satu putaran memberikan waktu yang cukup leluasa untuk mempersiapkan segalanya dengan lebih baik. Tim ekonomi pada kabinet mendatang diharapkan kredibel, kompeten dan kompak. RPJM realistik dan menukik atau fokus..
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Bagian IV PROSPEK 2009
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The world economic outlook, 2009-2010 Description 20092010 World GDP growth, % -1.1 3.1 -United States -2.7 1.5 -Euro Area -4.2 0.3 -Japan -5.4 1.7 -Developing economies 1.7 5.1 -China 8.5 9.0 -Asean-5 0.7 4.0 World trade growth, % -11.9 2.5 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009..
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expand by 2.4% contraction of 1.4% Despite the weakness of the global economy, the Economist Intelligence Unit has raised its forecast for Indonesian economic growth. We now expect real GDP to expand by 2.4% this year, compared with a contraction of 1.4% in our previous forecast. We expect growth to accelerate to 3.2% in 2010, up from 0.5% previously. (Source: economist.com, May 22nd 2009 From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire.) 2.5 IMF (June 5, 2009 ): Looking forward, we have raised our projection of economic growth for 2009 to 3-4 percent (from 2.5 %) with inflation expected to decline to about 5 percent by the end of the year.. Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09201.htm http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09201.htm Indonesia upgraded!!!
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Projections of GDP by several agencies NoAgency Date20092010 1Bank IndonesiaMarch 2009 3.55.0 2Gov’t of IndonesiaJuly 2009 4.55.0 3IIFJuly 2009 4.55.5 4ADBSeptember 2009 4.35.4 5World BankSeptember 2009 4.35.4 6EconomistOctober 2009 4.24.5 7IMFOctober 2009 4.04.8
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EIU’s prediction on Indonesian economy GDP growth, percent Source: The Economist, various issues.
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Projections of GDP by expenditures * Projection BIBappenasFB Private consumption 5,33,7 3.5 5.0 4.8-5.0 Gov’t consumption 10,49,9 7.7 13.27.6-10.5 Investment 11,76,0 5.0 7.1-7.6 Exports (goods & services) 9,5-4.6-6.0 -16.2 6.3-6.4 Imports (goods & services 10,0-4.8-9.0 -21.8 8.0 Gross domestic product 6,1 4,0 4.0 4,7 5.4-5.9 2009* Description 2010*2008
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Projections of GDP by sector * Projection Economic sector 20082009*2010* 1. Agriculture 4.8 3.9 3.4-3.6 2. Mining 0.5 1.5 0.4-1.6 3. Manufacturing 3.7 2.5 3.1-3.9 4. Utilities 10.911.110.7-11.2 5. Construction 7.3 6.4 6.9-7.2 6. Trade and hospitality 7.2 2.3 4.6-5.7 7. Transport and communications 16.715.515.515.2-16.6 8. Finance 8.2 6.2 6.5-6.9 9. Services 6.4 6.5 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 6.1 4.7 5.4-5.9
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Projection of selected economic indicators 200820092010 GDP growth, % 6.14.75.4-5.9 Inflation, % 11.23.84.5-5.5 Current account, % of GDP 0.11.00.6-0.8 BI rate, year end, % 9.256.257.00 Rp/US$, period average 9,76710,0509,250-9,500 Fiscal balance, % of GDP -0.1-2.0-1.5 Open unemployment, % 8.48.18.0
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57 Kerangka Strategi Pembangunan VISI: Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan VISI: Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan Melalui pencapaian 5 (lima) sasaran strategis: Fokus pada 7 area kebijakan: Pasar tenaga kerja: Penyempurnaan UU ketenagakerjaan; Peningkatan penyerapan tenaga kerja sektor formal; Implementasi sistem jaminan sosial bagi pekerja; Kualitas sumber daya manusia Implementasi sistem pendanaan kesehatan berkelanjutan dan terencana; Pembangunan pendidikan mengacu pada output. Infrastruktur Penyediaan infrastruktur (fisik dan non fisik) yang handal; Skema pendanaan Kebijakan harga infrastruktur. Teknologi Peningkatan dan efisiensi alokasi anggaran negara untuk penelitian; Insentif kegiatan R&D oleh swasta; Struktur ekonomi yang kokoh, mandiri dan berdaya saing Sumber daya manusia produktif Sumber pembiayaan pembangunan mencukupi dan efisien Birokrasi yang kompeten, efektif dan bersih Pasar modal dan perbankan: Mobilisasi dana masyarakat: tabungan haji, surplus dana masyarakat. Monetisasi asset negara; Peningkatan basis pajak. Pasar barang: Sistem distribusi yang efisien. Perlindungan wajar bagi produsen domestik dari persaingan tidak adil dengan produsen luar negeri; Lingkungan sosial dan politikKerangka kelembagaanStruktur pasar SUPRASTRUKTUR 1.Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan; 2.Perluasan penyerapan tenaga kerja; 3.Pengentasan kemiskinan dan pemerataan pembangunan. MISIMISI Prioritisasi: Active industrial policy: mendorong kegiatan usaha potensial dan strategis; Penguatan struktur pelaku usaha; Persebaran spasial kegiatan ekonomi Pemanfaatan SDA secara optimal dan lestari
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Terima Kasih Email: faisal.basri@gmail.comfaisal.basri@gmail.com Blog: http://faisalbasri.kompasiana.comhttp://faisalbasri.kompasiana.com
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