Fifth TWG I Meeting: Energy Policy Analysis Oetomo Tri Winarno Grand Candi Hotel - Semarang 11 July 2011.

Presentasi berjudul: "Fifth TWG I Meeting: Energy Policy Analysis Oetomo Tri Winarno Grand Candi Hotel - Semarang 11 July 2011."— Transcript presentasi:

1 Fifth TWG I Meeting: Energy Policy Analysis Oetomo Tri Winarno Grand Candi Hotel - Semarang 11 July 2011

2 Agenda 1.Opening and introduction 2.Presentation by Pusdatin 3.Presentation by regional team 4.How to develop RUED 5.Integration of TWG reports 6.Discussion 7.Work plan for the coming months

3 Review of TWG 2 Activities 29 Nov 2009 1 st Meeting 8 Feb 2010 2 nd Meeting 27 May 2010 3 rd Meeting 21 Oct 2010 4 th Meeting 22 Dec 2010 Bandung Meeting 1 Mar 2011 5 th Meeting Jul 2011 6 th Meeting National Seminar TWG II Submission Sep 2011 28 May 2011 Bandung Meeting

4 Deadline in the Proposal TWG II D25renewable energy action plan (end of 2010) TWG I D21energy profile (end of 2009) D22energy profile (end of 2010) D23energy profile (end of 2011) D28 energy outlook, including the pro-poor strategies (mid 2011) D26 activities aimed at lower level authorities (???)

5 Finalization of D21, D22, D23 Technical Proposal: – Report: in English & Bahasa Indonesia – Does not mentioned the format of the report: softcopy or hardcopy ?? I propose: – Hardcopy for all Casindo stakeholders (ECN, Pusdatin, ETCERE, DJ EBTKE, ITB, 5 regions, Dinas, etc.) Content: – D21 & D22 : tables – D23 : tables & narration

6 Outline D23 1.General information of province 2008 1.1 Geographic and political 1-2 pages 1.2 Socio-economic 1.2.1 Population (plus trend 2005- 2008)2-3 pages 1.2.2 Economy (overall + per (sub)sector plus trend 2005-2008)5-7 pages 1.3 Energy resources (domestic) 2.Energy Balance 2.1 Final energy consumption 2.1.1 Final energy consumption by sector (plus trend 2005- 2008)5-7 pages 2.1.2 Final energy consumption per energy (plus trend 2005- 2008)3 pages 2.2 Energy transformation 2.2.1 Electricity production (PLN- non PLN; plus trend 2005- 2008)2-3 pages 2.2.2 Others (refinery, … when applicable)1-2 pages 2.3 Energy supply (domestic plus imports/exports) (plus trend 2005- 2008) 2.3.1 solid fuels1-2 pages 2.3.2 liquid fuels3-4 pages 2.3.3 gas1-2 pages 2.3.4 biomass and other renewables3-4 pages

7 Outline D23 2.4 Energy and commodity balance 2.4.1 commodity balance1-2 pages 2.4.2 energy balance1-2 pages 3. Data sources and assumptions 3 1 data sources1-2 pages 3.2 assumptions1-2 pages 3.3 main methodology changes with energy profile 20051-2 pages Annex Commodity balance Energy Balance Tables and graphs from Excel file

8 How to Develop RUED New KEN have not launch yet RUEN will launch after New KEN RUEN guideline is still in process D28 will refer to RUEN guideline (not estab’d)

9 RUEN – RUED Flow DEN KESDM c.q. Setjen Rancangan Awal RUEN Propinsi Kabupaten/ Kota Kebijakan Energi Nasional Rancangan Awal RUED - TP Rancangan RUED - TK Rancangan RUED - TP Rancangan RUEN Penetapan RUEN Penetapan RUED - TP Penetapan RUED - TK Jan Mar Mei Jul Sep Okt Nov Des

10 D28 (RUED) Outline BAB I PENDAHULUAN 1.1 Kebijakan dan Perundangan 1.2 Tujuan 1.3 Indikator Pemakaian Energi BAB II PRAKIRAAN PERMINTAAN ENERGI 2.1 Asumsi Model dan Parameter Skenario 2.2 Permintaan Energi Final per Sektor 2.3 Permintaan Energi Final per Jenis BAB III PERENCANAAN PENYEDIAAN ENERGI 3.1 Minyak dan Gas Bumi 3.2 Kelistrikan 3.3 Batubara 3.4 Energi Baru dan Terbarukan BAB IV EMISI DARI SEKTOR ENERGI 4.1 Emisi CO 2 dari Pengguna Akhir 4.2 Emisi CO 2 dari Pembangkitan Listrik 4.3 Emisi CO 2 dari Pertambangan Migas dan Batubara 4.4 Emisi CO 2 dari Industri Migas BAB V STRATEGI PELAKSANAAN 5.1 Sisi Permintaan 5.2 Sisi Penyediaan

11 D28 (RUED) Outline BAB I PENDAHULUAN 1.1 Kebijakan dan Perundangan 1.2 Tujuan 1.3 Indikator Pemakaian Energi BAB II PRAKIRAAN PERMINTAAN ENERGI 2.1 Asumsi Model dan Parameter Skenario 2.2 Permintaan Energi Final per Sektor 2.3 Permintaan Energi Final per Jenis BAB III PERENCANAAN PENYEDIAAN ENERGI 3.1 Minyak dan Gas Bumi 3.2 Kelistrikan 3.3 Batubara 3.4 Energi Baru dan Terbarukan BAB IV EMISI DARI SEKTOR ENERGI 4.1 Emisi CO 2 dari Pengguna Akhir 4.2 Emisi CO 2 dari Pembangkitan Listrik 4.3 Emisi CO 2 dari Pertambangan Migas dan Batubara 4.4 Emisi CO 2 dari Industri Migas BAB V STRATEGI PELAKSANAAN 5.1 Sisi Permintaan 5.2 Sisi Penyediaan TWG I TWG II TWG III TWG I TWG II TWG III TWG I TWG II TWG III TWG IV TWG V

12 TWG I and Other TWGs LEAP Modeling Report on Energy Outlook (Regional Energy Planning) D28 D21D22D23 TWG I TWG II Report on Renewable Energy Action Plan D25 TWG III Report on Energy Conservation Action Plan D24 TWG IV Report on Energy Supply Projects D27 D26 Report on Activities at Kabupaten/Kota TWG ??

13 LEAP Modeling Region categorization: – By province: Jateng, Sumut, Papua – By island: NTB – By regency/city: Yogya Base year 2008 Population: based on Sensus 2000 - 2010

14 LEAP Modeling LEAP Model -Overall energy supply demand outlook -Energy mix outlook (incl. RE) -Energy conservation scenario Energy Profile -Energy consumption -Energy supply RE Action Plan -RE data -RE planning & target EC Action Plan -EC potential -EC planning & target

15 TWG II in LEAP Model Demand model – Demand of biofuel – Biomass for substituting oil fuel in industry Supply model – Geothermal PP – Hydro PP – Wind PP – Solar PV – Biomass PP – Biofuel production – Combined fuel

16 TWG III in LEAP Model Only for demand side: – Household sector: detailed to end use – Commercial sector: ? – Industry sector: ? – Transport sector: ?

17 TWG III in LEAP Model Conservation step: – Behavioral change – Retrofitting the current equipment – Technology change

18 Scenarios BAUaccording to current policy/trend Optimistic KEDFollow: - the full target of RE in TWG II - the full target of conservation in TWG III Moderate KEDCorrected optimistic target with the most possible development

19 Work plan JuliAgustusSeptemberOktoberNovember 12341234123412341234 D21, D22, D23XXXX D24XXXXX D25 XXXXXX D28: LEAP modelingXXXXX X D28: report writing XXXXX D28: proofing XXX D28: printing XX D26 Semarang Meeting X National Seminar X X : NTB, Yogya, Jateng X : Sumut, Papua

20 Preparation of CASINDO National Seminar 26 October 2011 Session I on regional energy policy formulation ITB : overview of approach & result USU : energy efficiency master plan UNCEN : renewable energy action plan UMY : pro- poor energy strategy

21 International Conference International Conference and Exhibition on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency – Date: 17 – 19 Oct 2011 – Place: Nusa Dua, Bali – Conducted by: WREC, KNI-WEC Deadline for paper submission: end of July

22 Thank You