UKURAN ASOSIASI DALAM EPIDEMIOLOGI

Presentasi berjudul: "UKURAN ASOSIASI DALAM EPIDEMIOLOGI"— Transcript presentasi:

1 UKURAN ASOSIASI DALAM EPIDEMIOLOGI
Nurul Wandasari Singgih Prodi Kesehatan Masyarakat Univ Esa Unggul 2012/2013

2 Tipe ukuran yang digunakan dalam epidemiologi
Ukuran asosiasi Merefleksikan kekuatan atau besar asosiasi antara suatu eksposur/faktor risiko dan kejadian suatu penyakit Memasukkan suatu perbandingan frekuensi penyakit antara dua atau lebih kelompok dengan berbagai derajat eksposur Beberapa ukuran assosiasi digunakan untuk mengestimasi efek

3 Basic Question in Analytic Epidemiology
Are exposure and disease linked? E D Exposure Disease

4 Ukuran-ukuran asosiasi
Ukuran rasio (perbandingan relatif) rasio dua frekuensi penyakit membandingkan kelompok terpajan dengan kelompok tidak terpajan Ukuran perbedaan efek (perbandingan absolut) perbedaan antara ukuran frekuensi penyakit suatu kelompok terpajan dan kelompok yang tidak terpajan

5 Two-By-Two Table a b c d Disease Yes No Total a+b c+d Yes Exposure No
Total a+c b+d a+b+c+d

6 Hypothetical Two-By-Two Table
Lung cancer Yes No Total 370 715 70 300 15 700 Yes Smoking No Total ,000 1,085

7 RR = incidence in the exposed = a/(a+b)
Relative Risk (RR) Measures how likely the exposed group will develop a disease compared to the unexposed group. RR = incidence in the exposed = a/(a+b) incidence in the unexposed c/(c+d)

8 Example: Hypothetical Study
Lung cancer Yes No Total 70 300 370 Smoking 15 700 715 85 1,000 1,085

9 Relative Risk = 70/(70+300) = 9.0 15/(15+700) Which means… participants who smoked were 9 times more likely to develop lung cancer than those who did not smoke.

10 Interpreting Measures of Association
RR of 1.0 indicates that the occurrence of disease in the exposed an unexposed groups are identical: No association observed between exposed and unexposed groups.

11 Interpreting Measures of Association (Continued)
RR greater than 1.0 indicates a positive association, or an increased risk among the exposed. RR less than 1.0 means that there is a decreased risk among the exposed group.

12 Ukuran-ukuran asosiasi
Ukuran rasio Rasio risiko atau risiko relatif (RR) Rasio Insidens Kumulatif (RIK)

13 Perhitungan RR untuk CI
Outcome (+) Outcome (-) Total E (exposed) a b a + b NE (unexposed) c d c + d Total a + c b + d N (a + b + c + d) CI pada populasi exposed (E) --- a/(a + b) RR= CI pada populasi unexposed (NE) --- c/(c + d)

14 = = = THEN, FOLLOW TO SEE WHETHER Totals Incidence rates of Disease
Disease Develops Does Not Develop Exposed a b a + b Not c d c + d Incidence in exposed a a+b FIRST, = SELECT c c+d Incidence in non-exposed = a a+b c c+d Relative Risk ( RR ) = incidence in exposed incidence in non-exposed =

15 THEN FOLLOW UP TO SEE HOW MANY
Example : A Prospective Study of 3,000 Smokers and 5,000 Non-smokers to Investigate Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) THEN FOLLOW UP TO SEE HOW MANY Develop CHD Do Not Develop Total Incidence per 1,000 per year Healthy Smokers 84 2,916 3,000 28.0 Healthy Non-Smokers 87 4,913 5,000 17.4 FIRST, SELECT

16 Contoh 5. Tabel 1. Kaitan antara merokok dan angka insidens stroke dalam suatu kohort. Kategori merokok Jumlah kasus stroke Orang-tahun observasi (lebih dari 8 tahun) Tingkat insidens stroke (per orang tahun) Tidak pernah merokok 70 17,7 Mantan perokok 65 27,9 Perokok 139 49,6 Total 274 30,2 Sumber: diterjemahkan dari:Beaglehole et al. Basic Epidemiology. WHO

17 Postmenopausal Hormone Supplement and CHD
CHD Person-years Ever use ,308.7 Past use ,386.7 Current ,922.0 Never use ,477.5 RR ever use vs never use = (30/54,308.7) / ( 60/ ) = 0.5 RR past use vs never use = (19/ ) / (60/ ) = 0.7 RR current use vs never use = (11/ ) / (60/ ) = 0.3

18 Ukuran-ukuran asosiasi
Ukuran rasio Rasio odds (Odds ratio = OR) Nama lain: Odds relative; rasio kros-produk rasio dua odds yang digunakan dalam studi kasus-kontrol untuk mengestimasi rasio rate atau rasio risiko

19 Ukuran-ukuran asosiasi
Ukuran rasio Rasio odds (Odds ratio = OR) odds untuk satu kelompok dibagi dengan odds untuk kelompok yang lain Mempunyai interpretasi yang sama seperti risiko relatif

20 Ukuran-ukuran asosiasi
Odds suatu kejadian rasio probabilitas bahwa kejadian terjadi terhadap probabilitas kejadian tidak terjadi P = Probabilitas suatu kejadian terjadi 1 – P = Probabilitas suatu kejadian tidak terjadi

21 Figure 11-5 A, Odds ratio (OR) in a cohort study
Figure 11-5 A, Odds ratio (OR) in a cohort study. B, Odds ratio (OR) in a case-control study. Downloaded from: StudentConsult (on 8 October :44 AM) © 2005 Elsevier

22 Prevalence Odds Ratio (POR) = Cross Product Ratio  bila data didasarkan pada kasus-kasus prevalens
Faktor Kasus Kontrol Total Perokok 650 (a) 950 (b) 1600 Bukan perokok 50 (c) 350 (d) 400 700 1300 2000

23 Odds Ratio & Risk Ratio The odds ratio will provide a good estimate of the risk ratio when: The outcome (disease) is rare a / (a +b ) RR = c / (c +d) D+ D- E+ a b E- c d If the disease is rare, then cells (a) and (c) will be small OR = (a / c) / (b / d) a / (a +b ) a / b ad RR = = =-- = OR c / (c +d) c / d bc OR = (ad) / (bc)

24 Figure 11-6 Example: The odds ratio is a good estimate of the relative risk when a disease is infrequent. Downloaded from: StudentConsult (on 8 October :44 AM) © 2005 Elsevier

25 Figure 11-7 Example: The odds ratio is not a good estimate of the relative risk when a disease is not infrequent. Downloaded from: StudentConsult (on 8 October :44 AM) © 2005 Elsevier

26 In a prospective study/cohort study,
the Relative Risk can be calculated directly In a retrospective study /case control study , the RR cannot be calculated directly, so that the Relative Odds or ODDS RATIO ( Cross Products Ratio ) is used as an estimate of the RR, when the risk of the disease is low

27 OR & RR Pada penyakit yang jarang terjadi,nilai Odds Ratio hampir sama dengan nilai Relative Risk (Risk Ratio). Nilai Prevalence Odds Ratio hampir sama dengan nilai Prevalence Proportion Ratio. Pada penyakit yang umum terjadi, nilai Odds Ratio lebih ekstrim dari pada Risk Ratio.

28 Interpretation of Odds Ratio
Relative odds associated with exposure OR = 1  no association OR > 1  positive association OR < 1  negative association Size of OR indicates strength of association OR ≈ RR when disease rare (i.e., risk < 5%); when disease not rare, OR still a valid measure of association Gerstman Chapter 8 (partial)