EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL I

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1 EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL I
Pertemuan III : Peranan teori perdagangan internasional dan Gravity model Ferry Prasetyia, SE., MAppEc

2 Peranan Teori perdagangan
Analisa faktor penyebab perdagangan Analisa pola perdagangan Rumusan kebijakan perdagangan Perbedaan persepektif terhadap perdagangan Persoalan dan solusi perdagangan internasional

3 Gravity Model Tingkat volume perdagangan internasional sangat ditentukan oleh jarak antara negara, ukuran ekonomi negara (GDP) Dari rumusan diatas dapat diformulasikan sebagai berikut (Krugman and Obsfeld, 2008): Tij = A x Yi x Yj /Dij Dimana: Tij : Nilai perdagangan antara negara i dan j A : konstanta Yi : GDP di negara i Yj : GDP di negara j Dij : jarak antara negara i dan j

4 Gravity Model (cont.) Fakta empiris menunjukan bahwa persoalan ukuran ekonomi sangat berkaitan dengan volume ekspor dan impor Negara besar memproduksi barang dan jasa lebih banyak, sehingga dapat mengekspor Negara besar dapat pendapatan dari barang dan jas yang dijual, sehingga masyarakatnya dapat membeli produk impor lebih banyak. Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

5 Fig. 2-1: Total U.S. Trade with Major Partners, 2006
3 of the top 10 trading partners with the U.S. in 2005 were also the 3 largest European economies: Germany, UK, and France. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

6 Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the Value of Their Trade with the United States
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, European Commission

7 Faktor lain yang mempengaruhi Gravity Model
Karakteristik geografi Kebudayaan masyarakat Perbatasan antara negara Multi National Corporation

8 Fig. 2-3: Economic Size and Trade with the United States
Source: U.S. Deparment of Commerce, European Commission Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

9 Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U. S
Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U.S. States That Trade with British Columbia Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

10 Table 2-3: Trade with British Columbia, as Percent of GDP, 1996
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

11 Fig. 2-5: The Rise, Fall, and Rise of International Trade Since 1830
Source: Richard E. Baldwin and Phillipe Martin, “Two Waves of Globalization: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences,” in Horst Siebert, ed., Globalization and Labor (Tubingen: Mohr, 1999). Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

12 Fig. 2-6: The Composition of World Trade, 2005
Source: World Trade Organization Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

13 Table 2-4: Manufactured Goods as a Percent of Merchandise Trade
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

14 Fig. 2-7: The Changing Composition of Developing-Country Exports
Source: United Nations Council on Trade and Development Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

15 Fig. 2-8: Tradable Industries’ Share of Employment
Source: J. Bradford Jensen and Lori G. Kletzer, “Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Outsourcing,” Peterson Institute of Economics Working Paper 5-09, May 2005 Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)