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1 Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan Matakuliah: J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen Tahun: 2005 Versi: 01/00.

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Presentasi berjudul: "1 Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan Matakuliah: J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen Tahun: 2005 Versi: 01/00."— Transcript presentasi:

1 1 Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan Matakuliah: J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen Tahun: 2005 Versi: 01/00

2 2 Learning Outcomes Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa akan mampu : Memahami proses pengambilan keputusan termasuk aspek-aspek yang mempengaruhi proses

3 3 Outline Materi Informas sebagai barang ekonomi Sifat dan tipe keputusan Model pengambilan keputusan Tahapan pengambilan keputusan

4 Informasi sebagai suatu barang ekonomi Rantai transformasi: –DATA - INFORMATION - KNOWLEDGE -- WISDOM Informasi adalah sebuah special good –Biaya produksi tinggi –Biaya reproduski quasi null –Biaya tetap tinggi, namun biaya marjinal rendah –Nilai informasi (waktu, volume, ketidakpastian) –Harga Jual informasi tergantung pada nilai/manfaat, bukan pada biaya.

5 5 Sifat Dasar Decision Making Pengambilan Keputusan –Adalah tindakan memilih salah satu alternatif dari sekumpulan alternatif yang tersedia. Proses Pengambilan Keputusan –Rangkaian Proses mengenali, mendefinisikan situasi, identifikasi alternatif, memilih alternatif terbaik, dan implementasinya. –Sebuah keputusan yang efektif adalh yang mengoptimalkan beberapa faktor seperti laba, penjualan, kesejahteraan karyawan dan pangsa pasar. –Para manajer membuat keputusan berkenaan dengan masalah dan kesempatan.

6 6 Tipe Keputusan Keputusan Terprogram –Suatu Keputusan yang cukup terstruktur (recurs) yang kerap berulang. Contoh : Memanaskan mesin mobil di pagi hari. Keputusan Tak terprogram –Suatu keptusan yang relatif dan terstruktur dan terjadi sangat jarang dibandingkan keputusan teprogram. Contoh: Memilih tujuan wisata saat liburan.

7 7 Tipe Keputusan Routine and Non-Routine DecisionsRoutine and Non-Routine Decisions Objective vs. Bounded RationalityObjective vs. Bounded Rationality Level of CertaintyLevel of Certainty

8 8 Kondisi Decision-Making Decision Making Under Certainty –Suatu kondisi dimana manajer memahami dengan baik alternatif yang tersedia serta kondisi berkaitan dengan setiap alternatif. Decision Making Under Risk –Suatu kondisi berkenaan dengan ketersediaan alternatif dan potensi manfaat serta biaya resiko. Decision Making Under Uncertainty –Suatu kondisi dimana manajer tidak mengetahui seluruh alternatif, resiko setiap alternatif, atu konsekuensi untuk setiap alternatif.

9 9 Uncertainty apa saja yang ada? Uncertainty karena Teknologi –Dell and LiOn battery –Will it work? Will Sony as the only supplier have enough capacity? Uncertainty berkenaan permintaan –Economic recession or boom, interest rates, inflation, consumer preferences –Expansion of Saturn’s Spring Hill Plant Uncertainty karena persaingan –Competitive actions and reactions –Success of international expansion by Wal-Mart –Success of new beverages of Coke and Pepsi

10 10 Isu lainnya dalam Decision Making Incentives for Decision Makers Incentives for Decision Makers Short-Run Versus Long-Run Decisions Short-Run Versus Long-Run Decisions

11 11 Isu lainnya dalam Decision Making Pitfalls yang harus dihindari Sunkcosts.Sunkcosts. Unitized fixed costs. Unitized Allocated Allocated Opportunitycosts.Opportunitycosts.

12 12 Kondisi Decision-Making Level of ambiguity and chances of making a bad decision LowerHigherModerate CertaintyUncertaintyRisk Kondisi yg dihadapi manajer...

13 13 Pandangan Rasional dalam Decision Making Model Klasik Decision Making When faced with a decision situation, managersshould......and end up with a decision that best serves the interests of the organization. obtain complete and perfect information eliminate uncertainty evaluate everything rationally and logically Figure 9.2

14 14 Langkah Dasar Rational Decision Making 1. Identifikasi seluruh opsi (termasuk doing nothing). 2. Kuantifikasi nilai (biaya) konsekuensi yang mungkin timbul untuk setipa opsi 3. Prediksi likelihood untuk setiap konsekuensi. 4. Integrasi seluruh kemungkinan.

15 15 State /Kondisi –Adalah kondisi aktual yang mungkin terjadi di masa mendatang Keputusan / Decision –Berbagai pilihan dimana seorang decision maker dapat memilih satu diantaranya Outcomes /hasil –Hasil dari suatu kombinasi states dan decisions Kompenen Decision Making

16 16 Tahapan menuju Good Decisions Definisikan problem dan influencing factors Tetapkan decision criteria Pilih model pengambilan keputusan Identifikasi dan evaluasi alternatif menggunakan model yang dipilih Pilih alternatif terbaik Implementasi keptusan Evaluasi hasil

17 17 Models Memungkinkan manajer melakukan analisis “What if”. Disusun untuk manajemen masalah dan manajemen input Force a consistent and systematic approach to the analysis of problems Require managers to be specific about constraints and goals relating to a problem Help reduce the time needed in decision making

18 18 Keterbatasan Models They may be expensive and time-consuming to develop and test are often misused and misunderstood (and feared) because of their mathematical and logical complexity tend to downplay the role and value of nonquantifiable information often have assumptions that oversimplify the variables of the real world

19 19 The Decision-Making Process ProblemDecision Quantitative Analysis Logic Historical Data Marketing Research Scientific Analysis Modeling Qualitative Analysis Emotions Intuition Personal Experience and Motivation Rumors

20 20 Decision Problem Alternatives States of Nature Out- comes Decision trees Decision tables Ways of Displaying a Decision Problem

21 21 Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Process Table 9.1a

22 22 Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Process (cont’d) Table 9.1b

23 23 Evaluating Alternatives in the Decision-Making Process Is the alternative feasible? Eliminate from consideration Is the alternative satisfactory? Are the alternative’s consequences affordable? Retain for further consideration Yes Eliminate from consideration Eliminate from consideration No Figure 9.3

24 24 Behavioral Aspects of Decision Making (cont’d) Bounded Rationality –The concept that decision makers are limited by their values and unconscious reflexes, skills, and habits. Satisficing –The tendency to search for alternatives only until one is found that meets some minimum standard of sufficiency to resolve the problem. Coalition –A political force in decision making which consists of an informal alliance of individuals or groups formed to achieve a goal.

25 25 Behavioral Aspects of Decision Making (cont’d) Intuition –An innate belief about something without conscious consideration. Escalation of Commitment –A decision maker is staying with a decision even when it appears to be wrong. Risk Propensity –The extent to which a decision maker is willing to gamble when making a decision.

26 26 Behavioral Aspects of Decision Making (cont’d) Ethics and Decision Making –Individual ethics (personal beliefs about right and wrong behavior) combine with the organization’s ethics to create managerial ethics. –Components of managerial ethics: Relationships of the firm to employees Employees to the firm The firm to other economic agents

27 27 Group and Team Decision Making in Organizations Forms of Group Decision Making –Interacting groups or teams are the most common form of decision-making groups which consists of an existing group or newly formed team interacting and then making a decision. –Delphi groups are sometimes used for developing a consensus of expert opinion from a panel of experts who individually contribute through a moderator. –Nominal groups are a structured technique designed to generate creative and innovative ideas through the individual contributions of alternatives that are winnowed down through a series of rank-ordering of the alternatives to reach a decision.

28 28 Advantages and Disadvantages of Group and Team Decision Making Table 9.2

29 29 Managing Group and Team Decision-Making Processes Managers Can Promote the Effectiveness of Group and Team Decision Making –Being aware of the pros and cons of having a group or team make a decision. –Setting deadlines for when decisions must be made. –Avoid problems with dominance by managing group membership. –Have each group member individually critically evaluate all alternatives. –As a manager, do not make your position known too early. –Appoint a group member to be a “devil’s advocate.” –Hold a follow-up meeting to recheck the decision.


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