Disusun Oleh YULIANA ISNANI (H1F114089) PERENCANAAN DAN PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI (HMKB763) Peramalan Jumlah Stok Alat Tulis Kantor di UD. Annisa Jaya Menggunakan Metode MPS Disusun Oleh YULIANA ISNANI (H1F114089)

STRUKTUR ORGANISASI Rektor Universitas Lambung Mangkurat Prof. Dr. H. Sutarto Hadi, M.Si., M.Sc. Wakil Rektor Universitas Lambung Mangkurat Dr. Ahmad Alim Bachri, SE., M.Si Dekan Fakultas Teknik Dr. Ing. Yulian Firmana Arifin, ST., MT Wakil Dekan I Fakultas Teknik Dr. Chairul Irawan, ST., MT Wakil Dekan II Fakultas Teknik Maya Amalia, ST., M.Eng Wakil Dekan III Fakultas Teknik Nurhakim, ST., MT Kepala Prodi Teknik Mesin Achmad Kusairi S, ST., MT., MM Dosen Pengampu Prof. Dr. Qomariyatus Sholihah Amd. Hyp, ST., M.Kes Mahasiswa Yuliana Isnani (H1F114089)

WHAT IS FORCASTING?? Forecasting is an activity estimate or predict what will happen in the future with a relatively long time. While the forecast is a situation or condition that would be expected to occur in the future. To predict this required data is accurate in the past, so it can be seen the prospect of the situation in the future.

OBJECTIVE FORECAST As a tool in planning effective and efficient. To determine the resource needs in the future. To make the right decision.

Master Production Schedule (MPS) Master Production Schedule is a wheel that directs the management of manufacturing processes and materials. Where MPS move, planning manufacturing processes and materials follow. MPS scheduler / planner can choose to follow the demand forecast (chase demand strategy) or follow the "level of production strategy" by selecting the production rate constant for some period without reducing inventory below the level.

PROBLEM ANALYSIS UD Annisa Jaya is one of the shops selling stationery and photocopy. UD Annisa Jaya was established on January 2, 2004 until today, UD Annisa Jaya reservation office stationery to producers by using sales data in the previous month, or by using the owner instinct, not by the method of forecasting. In the book (reorder) often goes wrong, sometimes too much book sometimes lacks in book. With forecasting system he designed using the MPS method can help in predicting the amount of stock stationery

Produk Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober November Harga per unit (Rp) Snowman V3 36 60 24 48 72 1.250 Snowman V5 1.700 Standard AE7 1.000

The author tried to foresee the purchase of a pen for the next two months using the MPS method. Here is the breakdown. We know the following data Produk Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober November Harga per unit (Rp) Snowman V3 36 60 24 48 72 1.250 Snowman V5 1.700 Standard AE7 1.000

Search total product and the precentage Periode (bulan) 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Presentase Produk A1 36 60 24 48 72 288 31,58% Produk A2 312 34,21% Produk A3 144 192 96 156 132 912 100,00%

Total produk per periode (dt) Use the linear method for calculation Periode (t) t2 Total produk per periode (dt) t*dt dt' 1 144 143,4285714 2 4 192 384 146,8571429 3 9 96 288 150,2857143 16 156 624 153,7142857 5 25 132 660 157,1428571 6 36 1152 160,5714286 21 91 912 3252  

dt' = a + bt a = ∑ 𝑡 2 x ∑dt −(∑t ×∑t∗dt) 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡×∑ 𝑡 2 −(∑𝑡)^2 = 91 x 912 −(21 ×3252) 6×91 −(21)^2 = 82992 −(68292) 546 −(441) = 140 b = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡×∑t∗dt −(∑t × ∑dt) 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑡×∑ 𝑡 2 −(∑𝑡)^2 = 6 x 3252 −(21 ×912) 6×91 −(21)^2 = 19512 −(19152) 546 −(441) = 3,43 dt’ = 140 + 3,43t enter the formula for the period of the 7th and 8th

t dt' dalam ribuan x 1000 7 164   164.000 8 167,429 167.429 Then, with a percentage based on the existing, we can calculate the amount per product per period. Presentase Periode (bulan) 7 8 31,58% Produk A1 52 53 34,21% Produk A2 56 57 Produk A3

And now we get the data forecasting results using the MPS method for two months. Periode (bulan) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total Presentase Produk A1 36 60 24 48 72 52 53 393 31,61% Produk A2 56 57 425 34,21% Produk A3 144 192 96 156 132 164 167 1.243 100%

Based on the studies focused on forecasting, the authors can conclude the following: Forecasting is an activity estimate or predict what will happen in the future with a relatively long time. While the forecast is a situation or condition that would be expected to occur in the future. To predict this required data is accurate in the past, so it can be seen the prospect of the situation in the future. Given the forecast, we can control the production to avoid excess production materials purchasing so we do not lose that much.

Suggestion This prediction should be applied in all aspects of daily life so that we can minimize any losses.