MANAJEMEN PROYEK Pertemuan 26 Matakuliah : J1186 - Analisis Kuantitatif Bisnis Tahun : 2009/2010 MANAJEMEN PROYEK Pertemuan 26
Framework Project Crashing Analisis Biaya Proyek Probabilitas Proyek Evaluasi Proyek Bina Nusantara University
Kembali ke Soal Latihan Bina Nusantara University
ES Earliest Starting (time) EF Earliest Finishing LS Latest Starting LF Latest Finishing Slack Extra Time Bina Nusantara University
Earliest Starting/Finishing Times EF = ES + t Bina Nusantara University
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LS = LF - t Bina Nusantara University
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What if activity times are variable? a optimistic time m most likely time b pessimistic time t = E(T) expected time = (a + 4m + b)/6 V(T) variance = (b - a)2/36 Bina Nusantara University
Contoh Soal Aktivitas Aktivitas Pendahulu Waktu (hari) Optimis Realistis Pesimis A === 1 2 3 B 4 C D 6 E 7 F 9 G D,E 11 H F,G Bina Nusantara University
Buatlah bagan proyeknya Tentukan waktu penyelesaian proyek Pertanyaan: Buatlah bagan proyeknya Tentukan waktu penyelesaian proyek Jalur kritis proyek Bina Nusantara University
Contoh Soal Bina Nusantara University 24
Menghitung Waktu yang diharapkan ET(A)= 3+4(6)+15 6 ET(A)=42/6=7 Bina Nusantara University 25
Network Duration = 54 Days A(7) B C(14) D(5) E(11) F(7) H(4) G(11) (5.333) C(14) D(5) E(11) F(7) H(4) G(11) I(18) Duration = 54 Days Bina Nusantara University
Probability Exercise p(t < D) D=53 t TE = 54 What is the probability of finishing this project in less than 53 days? D=53 p(t < D) t TE = 54 Bina Nusantara University
(Sum the variance along the critical path.) Bina Nusantara University
p(Z < -.156) = .5 - .0636 = .436, or 43.6 % (Appendix E) p(t < D) t TE = 54 D=53 p(Z < -.156) = .5 - .0636 = .436, or 43.6 % (Appendix E) There is a 43.6% probability that this project will be completed in less than 53 weeks. Bina Nusantara University