PELUANG DAN TANTANGAN DANA PESIUN internationalfinancemagazine.com business-review.eu PELUANG DAN TANTANGAN DANA PESIUN Faisal Basri 24 Oktober 2018

Angkatan kerja terus meningkat dan pengangguran terbuka cenderung menurun Pada Februari 2018, penduduk usia kerja (15 tahun ke atas) berjumlah 193,55 juta, meningkat sebanyak 3 juta dibandingkan Februari 2017. Angkatan kerja (labor force) berjumlah 133,94 juta atau 69,2 persen dari jumlah penduduk usia kerja. Jumlah angkatan kerja naik 2,39 juta dalam setahu terakhir dari 131,55 juta pada Februari 2017 Ada pun yang bekerja berjumlah 127,07 juta atau 94,9 persen dan yang menganggur 6,87 juta atau 5,13 persen. Jumlah penganggur turun dari 7,01 juta (5,33 persen) pada Februari 2017.

Informal workers are still dominant Population 15 years old and over who worked during the previous week by main employment status, percen   2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Informal 59.60 57.85 57.94 57.69 58.22 Own account workers 17.53 17.47 16.90 18.34 18.58 Employers assisted by temporary/unpaid workers 16.76 15.70 16.92 15.99 16.48 Casual agricultural workers 4.22 4.32 4.49 4.57 3.60 Casual non-agricultural workers 5.65 6.05 5.85 5.38 4.99 Family workers/unpaid workers 15.44 14.32 13.79 13.42 14.56 Formal 40.40 42.15 42.06 42.31 41.78 Employers assisted by permanent/paid workers 3.57 3.51 3.52 3.42 3.68 Employees 36.83 38.63 38.54 38.90 38.11 Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

The rise and decline of Indonesian economy: 1961-2018 Trendline-polynomial Pertamina crisis Oil price collapse The fall of Old Order Economic crisis and the end of New Order/Soeharto era * First semester Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and World Bank.

The declining trend of economic growth in the long-term, 1976-2018 8% 7% 6% 5% *First semester. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Analogi perekonomian dengan anatomi tubuh manusia Tempo, 8-14 Januari 2018, hal.12

Tax ratio has declined for the last 6 years in a row, only single digit in the last two years % of GDP * Last quarter of 1999/2000 fiscal year plus April-December of 2000 fiscal year. ** First half (preliminary). Sources: World Bank for 1972-1999; for 2000-2018: Tax revenue from Ministry of Finance (APBN Kita, July edition); GDP from BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared to peers percent of GDP Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2017, p. 21.

Industry is the largest contributor to tax renenue 2012-2016 (average) Contribution of industry to tax renenue = 30.7% Share of industry to GDP = 21 0% Sources: Ministry of Finance and BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Manufacturing matters: the share of manufacturing industry continued to decline Indonesia: premature deindustrialization? Sources: World Bank and BPS-Statistics Indonesia

Nilai asset sektor keuangan Indonesia masih sangat rendah, didominasi oleh perbankan

Komposisi asset sektor keuangan Indonesia sangat didominasi oleh perbankan Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. Credit penetration in Indonesia is still very low Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Indonesia: domestic credits to GDP ratio has not reached pre-crises level Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Foreign holdings in LCY government bonds in selected Asian countries * Data as of 30 June 2018 except for Japan and the Republic of Korea (31 March 2018). Source: Asian Development Bank, asianbondsonline.adb.org

Recent developments of foreign holdings of EM of government debt securities in LC bonds Average Source: downloaded from https://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/2017/060317.pdf

This time is different: pattern of net inflows of LCY government bonds (IDR triliun) Note: Year to date for 2018: October 17. Source: Ministry of Finance.

Tantangan pembiayaan pembagunan jangka menengah dan jangka panjang Akselerasi industrialisasi dan pemenuhan ketersediaan infrastruktur membutuhkan pembiayaan jangka panjang, padahal potensi sumber dana terbesar dari perbankan yang berasal dari deposito dengan tenor 1 tahun atau kurang. Dominasi perbankan mengakibatkan risiko fluktuasi suku bunga dan mennghasilkan efek multiplier lebih rendah ketimbang pasar modal. Mismatch ini hanya bias diatasi dengan pedalaman dan diversifikasi sektor keuangan. Pasar modal menjadi tumpuan masa depan.

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