Yonny Koesmaryono Guru Besar Agrometeorologi Geomet-FMIPA IPB Dampak Perubahan Iklim Global terhadap Pengembangan Agribisnis di Indonesia Yonny Koesmaryono Guru Besar Agrometeorologi Geomet-FMIPA IPB

We are being bombarded by strong forces for change as we go into the 21st Century: Population Global communications Global economies Food sufficiency Energy consumption Environment degradation Competition among social agencies for scarce resources Global warming

declining rising Global Perspective life supporting resources consumption of life supporting resources rising 3

Memahami Perubahan Iklim

DEFINISI CUACA & IKLIM CUACA : nilai sesaat (aktual) dari keadaan atmosfer, serta perubahan dalam jangka pendek (< 1 jam hingga 24 jam) di suatu tempat tertentu di bumi IKLIM : sintesis atau kesimpulan atau rata-rata nilai unsur-unsur cuaca (hari dan bulan) dalam jangka panjang di suatu tempat atau pada suatu wilayah CLIMATEis what you expect and WEATHERis what you get CLIMATEtells you what clothes to buy but WEATHERtells you what clothes to wear

Atmosfer dan Efek Rumah Kaca Sebagian sinar infra merah terperangkap oleh lapisan atmosfir dan memanasi bumi ……. Sebagian energi dipantulkan kembali ke ruang angkasa dalam bentuk sinar infra merah Sebagian besar radiasi matahari diserap bumi dan menghangatinya

Trend Peningkatan Suhu Permukaan 1910-1940 (+0.35°C) 1970-2006 (+0.55°C) ...1900 Meningkatnya suhu pemukaan bumi secara global : naik0,6 ± 0,2°C (IPCC, 2001) Pada akhir abad ini terjadi 2 kali periode penghangatan: 1910-1940 (0,35oC) dan 1970-2006 (0,55oC) (IPCC, 2007) 2006 adalah tahun terhangat sejak 1861 (selanjutnya 1998, 2005, 2003, 2002 dan 2004) IPCC, 2007

Apakah terjadi Pemanasan Global !!!!! Terjadinya peningkatan temperatur rata-rata permukaan bumi akibat efek rumah kaca yang terjadi di atmosfer. Penyebab : Faktornya adalah peristiwa alami (natural) dan aktivitas manusia (anthropogenic) GRK utama dari pemanasan global: karbon dioksida (CO2) metana (CH4) nitrous oksida (N2O) Halokarbon (CFC-11, HFC-23, CF4)

Dari mana emisi GRK itu datang? Darimana CO2 berasal? DESCRIPTION: Graphic representation of major sources of greenhouse gas emissions   TALKING POINTS: The greenhouse gas pollution that causes global warming comes from many different sources, including electricity generation, industrial activities, agriculture, deforestation and transportation. Carbon dioxide, the most important human-generated greenhouse gas, enters the atmosphere from sources such as: The processing and burning of coal and other fossil fuels for energy (electricity and heat); Burning forests and agricultural waste; Land, air, and sea transportation; and Frozen carbon just beginning to be released from the thawing permafrost. ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND: Carbon dioxide is one of the six greenhouse gases typically targeted for inventory and reduction. The others are: Methane (e.g., from landfills, rice production, etc.) Nitrous oxide (e.g., from fossil fuel combustion) Hydrofluorocarbons (e.g., from aluminum smelting, refrigeration units, etc.) Perfluorocarbons (e.g., from aluminum production) Sulfur hexafluoride (e.g., from magnesium production) Black carbon, while not a gas, is also now considered an extremely important contributor to global warming. It is produced by burning forests, cooking fires, diesel engines and other human activities. PRESENTATION TIP: This slide contains a lot of information that may be overwhelming to your audience. You may want to present a brief summary of the sources and leave further explanation to the question period. Image source: Melcher OIL PRODUCTION CROP BURNING FERTILIZATION FOREST BURNING INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE LAND TRANSPORTATION LANDFILLS