Modul 1: Kesiapan LKM Keuangan Mikro dan Manajemen Bencana SLIDE 1: Module 1: MFI Preparedness Estimated Duration: 3 hours total Resources needed: Flipchart paper and markers Digital projector Module 1 – Presentation (.PPS) Module 1 – Handouts (.DOC) (One copy for each participant) Most Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) cannot ignore the possibility of being impacted by natural disasters. Many operate in communities and regions where severe natural events are seasonal and, to some extent, predictable. It behoves such an MFI to make preparations for the impact of natural disasters on their clients and on the MFI itself. MFIs will be better placed to respond effectively when a disaster strikes if it has worked through the issues, designed policies and products, and negotiated collaboration with disaster management agencies (DMAs), before disaster strikes rather than in the midst of it. Glossary Items: Disaster Preparedness

Tujuan Untuk memahami: dampak bencana alam terhadap LKM pengurangan risiko bencana untuk LKM SLIDE 2: Objectives Following completion of this module, participants should understand how a natural disaster might affect an MFI, and the strategies an MFI can implement to mitigate the risks.

Topik yang dibahas Pandangan umum resiko yang dihadapi oleh LKM Dampak bencana terhadap LKM Pengurangan resiko bencana untuk LKM Rencana kesiapan menghadapi bencana oleh LKM SLIDE 3: Topics Note that the first three topics in the discussion are for learning and background. However, there is little point simply understanding these things if it does not result in a concrete action plan. Therefore, the Key Output of this module is that the MFI prepares a Disaster Preparedness Plan (Topic 4).

1.Pandangan Umum Atas Resiko yang Dihadapi LKM Resiko kelembagaan: Ketergantungan pada donor Ketidakjelasan misi Reputasi Resiko operasional: Resiko kredit Resiko likuiditas Resiko transaksi (kecerobohan, salah urus, kekeliruan) Penipuan Resiko keuangan: Aset dan Liabilitas Suku bunga, nilai tukar LKM punya kendali luas atas risiko-risiko ini SLIDE 4: PART 1. Overview of Risks Faced by MFIs Estimated Duration: 10 minutes Technique: Lecture Facilitator Note: Be careful that participants do not become side-tracked by over-discussing the detail of the three risk categories mentioned on this slide, as it is the fourth risk category - “EXTERNAL RISKS” (slide 5) - that is the main point of interest in this module. Institutional Risks: Governance: e.g. lack of focus, failing to protect the MFIs assets, allowing sub-standard financial reporting. Dependence on donors: The question of sustainability. What happens to the MFI if donors withdraw their support? Mission drift: Who is the MFI supposed to serve? What is the MFI meant to do? E.g. Is the MFI a financial intermediary or a generalist development NGO? Reputation: Does the community-at-large respect the MFI as a provider of financial services? Do lenders and investors respect the MFI as a trustworthy partner. Operational Risks: Credit risk: Quality of the loan portfolio. Does the MFI expect and demand that loans are repaid. Do the operational systems ensure this? Liquidity risk: Is the MFI able to pay its creditors in a timely manner? Transaction risk (negligence, mismanagement, errors): Is transaction data managed effectively? Are reports readily available? Is the data readily consolidated? Fraud: Are there systems in place to minimize opportunity for fraud and theft? Financial Risks: Assets and liabilities: How “strong” is the Balance Sheet? To what extent do assets exceed liabilities? Interest rate, exchange rate: Does the MFI use different currencies for different purposes? (e.g. funds sourced in US$ but lent out in local currency). If so, what will be the effect of a significant change in exchange rate? To date, capacity-building and technical assistance for MFIs has focused on improving their ability to manage these types of risks. Less work has been done on managing EXTERNAL RISKS (see slide 5). Glossary items: Governance Risk Management

Resiko-resiko Ekstern yang Dihadapi LKM Peraturan, makroekonomi Perang, terorisme Bencana alam Modul ini berfokus pada risiko (ekstern) bencana alam, dampak bencana terhadap LKM, dan cara mengurangi risiko SLIDE 5: External risks faced by MFIs There has been a growing interest and body of literature on legal and regulatory environments that are conducive to microfinance operations. Many governments have participated in policy dialogue on this issue and several countries have adopted specific microfinance legislation. In recent times, there has also been some interest in the subject of “Microfinance in Conflict-affected Communities”. From the beginning, microfinance providers have had to work in contexts impacted by natural disasters. In fact, many of the oldest MFIs were formed partly as a disaster recovery intervention. Bangladesh, for example, is one such country where many of the MFIs were formed as a response to natural disaster. In spite of this, the microfinance sector in general has not ‘mainstreamed’ Disaster Risk Management as a key governance issue. The 2004 Asian Tsunami, as well as subsequent natural disasters has provided new emphasis for this subject.

2. Dampak Bencana terhadap LKM Dampak langsung, misalnya kerusakan kantor, perlengkapan kantor, Sistem Informasi Manajem (MIS), arsip, dll. Dampak tidak langsung, misalnya Dampak terhadap tenaga listrik, komunikasi, infrastruktur transportasi, gangguan terhadap karyawan dan prosedur operasional Dampak makro ekonomi, misalnya Tekanan inflasi, kerusuhan sosial Wawancara : uraikan berbagai dampak langsung, tidak langsung dan makro ekonomi yang diderita salah satu kantor cabang anda setelah bencana alam. SLIDE 6: PART 2. The Impact of Disasters on MFIs Estimated Duration: 50 minutes Technique: Lecture, Interview, Brainstorm We now consider the possible impacts of disasters on MFIs. If we understand the areas of risk, it will then possible to design and implement strategies to mitigate these risks. Direct impact refers to physical damage on computers, information systems and data, etc. Indirect impact includes disruptions in general services that impact how an organization operates. This includes disruptions to electricity, telecommunication and transport infrastructure. Macroeconomic damage refers to broader impact felt by the region, and includes inflationary pressure, disruptions to means of production, social unrest, etc. INTERVIEW: (Facilitator Note: You should either identify a suitable interviewee, or ask the participants to construct a scenario) Describe the direct, indirect and macro-economic impacts suffered by one of your branch offices following a natural disaster: How was the office building and/or equipment damaged? Was the equipment insured? How was it replaced? Did you lose client data? How did these losses impact the microfinance operations? Did you lose electricity? Telephone? Were your officers able to travel to the clients’ communities as before? How did these losses impact the microfinance operations? Were there particular social problems that impacted your microfinance operations? REMEMBER TO KEEP THE FLIPCHART FOR THIS EXERCISE, AS YOU WILL USE IT AGAIN LATER

Mengukur Dampak dalam Istilah Akuntansi Untuk mengukur dampak dalam istilah akuntansi, kita mempertimbangkan: Dampak terhadap arus kas dan likuiditas Dampak terhadap neraca (aset dan kewajiban) SLIDE 7: Quantifying impact in accounting terms Facilitator Note: This is an introductory slide only. The discussion that follows uses the two categories – Impact on Cashflow and Impact on the Balance Sheet - to discuss ways of quantifying the impact of a disaster in accounting terms.

Dampak terhadap Arus Kas Arus masuk Menurun segera Arus keluar Meningkat segera Tingkat pembayaran Penurunan jangka menengah kembali Kredit macet Peningkatan jangka menengah Brainstorm: bahas fenomena yang diuraikan disini. SLIDE 8: Impact on cash flow BRAINSTORM: Ask participants to consider each of the above – declining inflows, increasing out-flows, declining repayment rates and increasing loan default. Ask them to explain how/why these phenomena occur. Write the answers on the flip chart. Finally, display the next slide, and confirm the participants reflections.

Dampak terhadap Arus Kas dan Likuiditas Penurunan segera pada arus masuk, karena pembayaran kembali kredit dan tabungan berkurang Kenaikan segera dalam arus keluar, karena penarikan tabungan, kredit darurat meningkat, dll. Penurunan jangka menengah dalam tingkat pembayaran kembali, karena kerusakan/kehilangan/penjualan terpaksa aset-aset yang menghasilkan pendapatan dapat menurunkan kemampuan pelanggan melakukan pembayaran kembali kredit Kenaikan jangka menengah dalam kredit macet SLIDE 9: Impact on cash flow and liquidity The impact on cash flow and liquidity is as follows: First, there will be an immediate decline in inflow of cash. Clients are likely to stop depositing savings and they may opt to reduce loan repayments to the minimum required. Second, there will be an increase in outflow of cash. Clients are likely to withdraw savings and they may request additional loans. In the medium term, repayment rates may decline even further, if clients have lost, or are forced to sell, productive assets. There may be a significant loss of capital if large numbers of clients default on their loans. Furthermore, while group-lending methodologies can ensure high repayment rates under normal conditions they can also serve to magnify capital losses in times of widespread economic stress. The result of all of the above is that MFIs may face a serious liquidity crisis in the wake of a natural disaster. Since MFIs pride themselves on their ability to deliver financial services to poor households, it would be both ironic and unfortunate if an MFI was unable to maintain these services at a time when their clients need them most. NOTE: The assumptions of decreasing savings deposits and increased withdrawal of savings are generally true in post-crisis situations where there are no relief agencies distributing grants or conducting cash-for-work programs. However, following the 2004 Asian Tsunami it was observed that in contexts where there were relief grants and cash-for-work programs, client savings actually increased. For further information, read Research Brief #5 “Savings for Risk Mitigation and Crisis Recovery”. Krisis likuiditas merupakan tantangan bersama.

Dampak terhadap Neraca (1) Neraca menyediakan gambaran dari segala sesuatu milik perusahaan dan yang dimiliki pada suatu saat tertentu. Ia terdiri dari: Aset/Aktiva: apa saja yang dimiliki atau terhutang kepada perusahaan. Bagi LKM, aset utama adalah portofolio pinjaman, cadangan kas & perlengkapan Kewajiban: apa saja yang terhutang oleh perusahaan kepada pihak lain. Bagi LKM, kewajiban utama adalah simpanan pelanggan dan pinjaman Modal: kekayaan bersih atau net worth suatu organisasi SLIDE 10: Impact on the Balance Sheet (1) The balance sheet provides a snapshot of everything the company owes (liabilities) and owns (assets) at a specific point in time. A “strong” balance sheet is one where liabilities are considerably outweighed by assets. Equity is the difference between assets and liabilities. Facilitator Note: This is an informational slide. With this slide, and the following slide, the facilitator should get a ‘feel’ for how well participants understand what a Balance Sheet is. Some will be very familiar with it; others may not be familiar at all. Glossary items: Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities Equity Sebuah neraca yang ‘kuat’ adalah manakala aset jauh melampaui kewajiban

Neraca Contoh Aktiva Lancar Kewajiban Lancar Rekening kas dan bank 10,000 Pinjaman jangka pendek 15,000 Investasi jangka pendek 6,000 Tabungan pelanggan 20,000 Portofolio pinjaman 90,000 Hutang jangka pendek - komersial 12,000 Dikurangi cadangan pinjaman -9,000 Hutang jangka panjang - konsesi 35,000 Jumlah aktiva lancar 97,000 Jumlah kewajiban 82,000 Aktiva Jangka Panjang Modal Investasi jangka panjang 12,500 Modal disetor Properti dan peralatan Modal sumbangan – tahun-tahun lalu Biaya 8,000 Modal sumbangan – tahun berjalan Dikurangi penyusutan -700 Laba (rugi) ditahan tahun-tahun lalu -6,000 Laba (rugi) ditahan tahun berjalan -4,200 Jumlah aset jangka panjang 19,800 Jumlah modal 34,800 JUMLAH AKTIVA 116,800 JUMLAH KEWAJIBAN DAN MODAL SLIDE 11: Sample Balance Sheet Assets are items that the organization uses, or has invested, for the purpose of generating revenue. For an MFI, this represents its loan portfolio, cash reserves, investments and equipment. The Loan Portfolio is usually the MFIs largest asset. Liabilities include borrowings (short and long-term) and client deposits. Equity = Assets – Liabilities Facilitator Note: You should ask participants to confirm their understanding of the terms (especially Asset and Liability sections) by asking them to describe them verbally. Participants will need to understand the balance sheet to be able to participate in the following brainstorm exercise. Glossary: Loan Loss Reserve

Dampak terhadap Neraca (2) Brainstorm: merujuk pada Neraca Contoh dan diskusi tentang arus kas dan likuiditas, diskusikan kemungkinan pergerakan dalam berbagai pos aset dan kewajiban setelah bencana. SLIDE 12: Impact on the Balance Sheet (2) BRAINSTORM: Distribute the handout “Sample Balance Sheet”. Lead the participants through some of the following: Following a major natural disaster, What might happen to the figures for “Cash and bank accounts”, “Short-term investments”, “Loan Portfolio”, “Loan Loss Reserve”, “Property and Equipment”, “Short-term borrowing”, “Client Savings”. Indicate where funds flow from one item to another. Which items would you expect to not change? (e.g. Long-term investments, Long-term debt) See following slide for suggested answers.

Dampak terhadap Neraca (3) Portofolio pinjaman akan meningkat dengan permintaan pinjaman darurat, walaupun tingkat pengembalian mungkin jauh lebih rendah karena terdapat penurunan dalam tingkat pembayaran kembali Jika berbagai aset properti tidak diasuransikan, perlu dilakukan pembelian peralatan pengganti dalam jumlah besar Kewajiban Tabungan pelanggan akan berkurang jika para penabung memutuskan untuk menarik dana tabungan Bagiamana LKM memenuhi permintaan ini? Dana ditarik dari aktiva lancar atau pinjaman baru (dengan anggapan bahwa LKM bisa memperoleh pinjaman baru tersebut) Perlu disediakan dana untuk penghapusan kredit macet yang lebih besar, sehingga cadangan penghapusan kredit akan meningkat (negatif). Namun hal ini merupakan alokasi non-kas SLIDE 13: Impact on the Balance Sheet (3) Assets The biggest (i.e. most valuable) asset an MFI has is usually its loan portfolio. When a disaster strikes, clients may be unable to repay or perhaps their repayments will be late. This means that loan loss reserve will increase (although this is a non-cash provision), and there is a net reduction in the value of the loan portfolio. Physical equipment might also be damaged. If the equipment is not insured, the MFI will need to draw on current assets to replace this equipment. Furthermore, with the reduced performance of the loan portfolio (i.e. less income from lending operations), the MFI may need to draw on significantly more liquid assets (cash-on-hand and short-term investments) to meet on-going and unexpected costs. Thus the net impact on the asset side is, typically, a significant decline. Liabilities Following a disaster, MFIs that accept client deposits will likely need to meet increased demand for withdrawals. If they do not have the cash reserves or if these reserves have been impacted, then the MFI will not be able to respond to this important client need. Any reduction in the “client savings” liability will be balanced by either a reduction in current assets, and/or increase in short-term borrowing. Some MFIs may be able to increase short-term borrowing in order to maintain liquidity, in which case, net liabilities will increase. However, MFIs that are already heavily leveraged may not be able to borrow additional funds.

Dampak terhadap Neraca (4) Secara keseluruhan, dampak keuangan yang segera terlihat terhadap LKM tercermin pada nilai jumlah aset yang lebih rendah Pertanyaan kunci adalah: Apakah LKM memiliki aset likuiditas secukupnya – kas dan investasi jangka pendek – untuk memenuhi permintaan? Jika tidak, LKM menghadapi krisis likuiditas, yang dalam jangka pendek hanya dapat diatasi dengan meningkatkan pinjaman jangka pendek atau dengan modal (misalnya modal sumbangan melalui bantuan pertolongan) LKM harus dapat memperkirakan jumlah permintaan dana likuiditas darurat, untuk dapat mencari pinjaman jangka pendek tambahan atau menarik modal sumbangan tambahan SLIDE 14: Impact on the Balance Sheet (4) Facilitator Note: Be careful that you don’t get into a detailed discussion on “Lines of Credit”, “Emergency Liquidity” etc here, as it is covered in a later discussion in PART 3. If the MFI needs to find cash to help overcome the crisis period, it might be able to draw on a number of sources: Grants provided by donor organizations, as a support to MFIs that are serving in affected areas. There may be constraints with respect to how the MFI is expected to apply these funds. Concessional debt, either short or long-term. Usually, this will carry fewer constraints with respect to the application of the funds, but they do of course need to be repaid eventually. Commercial debt, assuming the MFI is of sufficient financial quality to successfully attract this investment. Whatever the source of the funds, the MFI will need to be able to model and estimate the demand for emergency liquidity.

3. Pengurangan Resiko Bencana untuk LKM Dalam bahasan sebelumnya, kita mengidentifikasi dan mendiskusikan berbagai resiko yang terkait dengan bencana. Sekarang kita perlu meninjau kembali berbagai risiko tersebut, dan menyarankan cara-cara untuk mengurangi masing-masing risiko. SLIDE 15: PART 3. Disaster Risk Mitigation for MFIs Estimated Duration - 60 minutes Technique – Lecture, Brainstorm, Case Study In the previous section, we discussed the impacts of disasters on MFIs, including: Direct impacts Indirect impacts Macro-economic impacts Impact in accounting terms: Impact on cashflow and liquidity Impact on the Balance Sheet. We now look at each of these impacts again, and suggest ways to mitigate risk associated with each of them.

Pengurangan Risiko Kehilangan Fisik yang Langsung Kerusakan pada kantor, perlengkapan kantor, Sistem Informasi Manajemen, arsip, dll. Brainstorm: tindakan pencegahan apa saja yang bisa dilakukan oleh LKM untuk berbagai aset fisiknya agar bisa bertahan terhadap goncangan dari luar? SLIDE 16: Mitigating risk of direct physical losses BRAINSTORM: Write the following list down the left-side of a flipchart sheet: Office Building Computer and other electronic equipment Other office equipment Hardcopy data, files etc Electronic data Etc. Then ask participants, “What measures can an MFI take to prepare its physical assets to withstand possible external shocks?” Compare answers with the following slide.

Pengurangan Risiko Hilang Fisik Langsung Kerusakan pada kantor, perlengkapan kantor, Sistem Informasi Manajemen (MIS), arsip, dll. Pengurangan risiko – saran-saran: Asuransikan semua aset fisik Pengatur tegangan listrik pada peralatan listrik, dihubungkan ke tanah sebagaimana mestinya (properly earthed) Sistem penyimpanan dan pengembalian (recovery) data, dengan backup dan catatan yang dijadwal secara teratur disimpan ditempat lain Kantor cabang berada di tempat ‘aman’, misalnya di atas garis banjir SLIDE 17: Mitigating risk of direct physical losses Mitigating the risk - suggestions: Insurance on all physical assets: Are details of all assets properly recorded (proof of purchase, specifications, serial number, etc)? Are these details kept in a safe place? What is the procedure for making a claim? Voltage regulators on electrical equipment, properly earthed Data backup and recovery systems, with regularly scheduled backups and records held in secure off-site location: Has recovery of the backups been tested? Branch offices in “safe” locations, e.g. above the flood line. Facilitator Note: Compare these suggestions with the participants’ reflections.

Pengurangan Risiko Dampak Tidak Langsung Kerusakan pada tenaga listrik, komunikasi, infrastruktur transportasi, dll. Memperkecil gangguan pada prosedur operasional. Pengurangan risiko – saran-saran: Sistem tenaga listrik ganda Penyelenggaraan backup operasional MIS di tempat lain Strategi komunikasi ‘darurat’ Modifikasi prosedur operasional untuk memperhitungkan kendala transportasi, dengan komunikasi jelas kepada pelanggan (misalnya lebih sedikit pertemuan, di tempat berbeda) SLIDE 18: Mitigating risk of indirect impacts Mitigating the risk - suggestions: Redundant power systems: e.g. a backup petrol-generator. Offsite backup operation of MIS: Can the MIS software and data files be readily loaded onto a different computer? Do office staff know how to do this? “Emergency” communication strategies: e.g. landlines / cell phones / satellite phone / HF Radio Modifying operational procedures to account for transport constraints, with clear communication to clients. (e.g. fewer meetings, in different locations). Facilitator Note: Work through these suggestions, and ask participants if they have any additional reflections or ideas.

Pengurangan Risiko Dampak Makro Ekonomi Tekanan inflasi, kerusuhan sosial, dll. Pengurangan risiko – saran-saran: Pada umumnya, LKM dengan pengelolaan dan manajemen yang baik akan lebih tanggap menangani risiko makro ekonomi LKM-LKM yang telah mencapai tingkat operasional dan keuangan berkelanjutan yang tinggi akan lebih tanggap menangani risiko makro ekonomi SLIDE 19: Mitigating risk of macro-economic impacts An MFI that is weak under “normal” conditions will struggle to survive a serious natural disaster. Strong MFIs are better placed to provide relevant and helpful services to their clients. Successful MFIs have effective governance, strong human resource management, accurate and flexible management information systems, and effective portfolio management. They offer services that fit the preferences and needs of poor households, they are efficient, and they operate on a business-like basis. If an MFI wishes to prepare for a disaster event, then its first commitment should be to on-going institutional strengthening.

Melindungi Uang Tunai yang Tersedia Melindungi penyimpanan uang tunai terhadap risiko hilang atau pencurian setelah bencana: Memelihara rekening giro pada bank yang beroperasi resmi Mempertahankan uang tunai minimum pada kantor cabang, di dalam wadah yang aman dari bahaya api, banjir dan pencurian Mengembangkan prosedur cepat-tanggap untuk memindahkan dana ke lokasi pengganti selama keadaan darurat SLIDE 20: Protecting Cash-on-Hand It might not be possible to insure the cash float, so MFIs should take measures such as these to protect their cash-on-hand.

Pengurangan Risiko Kredit Macet Mempersiapkan portofolio kredit agar dapat bertahan menghadapi kemungkinan adanya goncangan dari luar: Memberikan kredit untuk berbagai kegiatan yang berlainan Memusatkan pada lebih dari satu lokasi, kelompok atau usaha Memfasilitasi produk dan jasa yang kurang mengandung risiko bagi pelanggan (lihat Modul 2: Kesiapan Pelanggan) Pesan utama disini adalah diversifikasi – yang bisa dicapai dengan meningkatkan jangkauan LKM ke wilayah geografis yang lebih luas, dan memberikan kredit untuk tujuan pengunaan yang lebih luas SLIDE 21: Mitigating risk of loan portfolio losses Diversification – in terms of physical location of clients, as well as size and purpose of loans – will help reduce risk in the loan portfolio. Diversification allows for more consistent performance under a wide range of economic conditions, including localized impacts of natural disasters. “Risk mitigating products and services” include microinsurance products, savings for risk mitigation, and other personal financial risk mitigation strategies.

Pengurangan Risiko Arus Kas dan Likuiditas Tantangan terhadap arus kas/likuiditas terkait dengan berkurangnya pendapatan dan bertambahnya kas keluar setelah bencana Pengurangan risiko – saran-saran: LKM (dan setiap kantor cabang) semestinya mampu untuk segera memperkirakan kebutuhan arus kas dan modal kerja setelah bencana Jika persediaan uang tunai tidak mencukupi, LKM perlu mencari modal tambahan dari misalnya pinjaman jangka pendek dan/atau modal sumbangan Dana likuidasi darurat yang bisa didapatkan misalnya pada tingkat nasional dan wilayah, untuk mendukung kebutuhan khusus ini SLIDE 22: Mitigating cashflow and liquidity risk An MFI can take several measures to ensure it has sufficient cashflow to handle its liabilities after external shocks: Sufficient cash reserves maintained at formal banking institutions A pre-established line of credit with one or more banks Other sources of emergency borrowing established with bank, donors or others. Emergency Liquidity Funds (ELFs) are gaining recognition as facilities to help MFIs overcome liquidity challenges following natural disasters. Emergency loans are provided to microfinance institutions to allow them to continue their financial activities without interruptions and overcome liquidity difficulties that occur after unexpected events. ELFs are not “free money” available to any organisation that wishes to provide microfinance services in a post-disaster context. Nor is an ELF a facility that will allow an MFI to restructure a poorly performing loan portfolio on the pretext of “disaster recovery”. Rather, the ELF pre-approves, through a detailed evaluation process, existing MFIs for emergency liquidity support. Following a disaster, the ELF will work with the approved MFIs to determine the level of support needed. Loans are then made to the MFI under pre-defined conditions. An example of an ELF can be viewed at http://www.emergencyliquidityfacility.com/.

Memperkirakan Kebutuhan Arus Kas (1) Latihan studi kasus: Baca skenario di handout dan identifikasi fakta-fakta kunci yang ada Hitung penurunan pendapatan dari bunga selama jangka waktu 3 bulan setelah banjir Berapa besar cadangan uang tunai yang anda rekomendasikan untuk dipertahankan oleh LKM ini? SLIDE 23: Estimating cashflow needs (1) Case Study Exercise Distribute the handout, and display the slide 24

Memperkirakan Kebutuhan Arus Kas (2) Total Outstanding Portfolio Portofolio yang tidak terkena dampak bencana % Tingkat pembayaran kembali Suku bunga per bulan Pendapatan bunga bulanan Portofolio yang terkena dampak bencana Lamanya jangka waktu bencana Bulan Jumlah pendapatan bulanan selama bencana Jumlah bulanan pada waktu normal Penurunan pendapatan bulanan karena bencana Kekurangan pendapatan selama bencana SLIDE 24: Estimating cashflow needs (2) Case Study Exercise Ask participants to read the narrative, and then fill in the table, top-to-bottom, left-to-right. You may conduct this as an individual exercise, in groups, or as a whole-of-class exercise. You might choose to check each answer as you go, rather than have participants propagate earlier mistakes. Answers are provided on the slide 25.

Memperkirakan Kebutuhan Arus Kas (3) Total Outstanding Portfolio 1,000,000 Portofolio yang tidak terkena dampak bencana 50 % 500,000 Tingkat pembayaran kembali 96 480,000 Suku bunga per bulan 3 Pendapatan bunga bulanan 14,400 Portofolio yang terkena dampak bencana 75 375,000 11,250 Lamanya jangka waktu bencana Bulan Jumlah pendapatan bulanan selama bencana 25,650 Jumlah bulanan pada waktu normal 28,800 Penurunan pendapatan bulanan karena bencana 3,150 Kekurangan pendapatan selama bencana 9,450 Perkiraan kekurangan pendapatan selama bencana $9,450 SLIDE 25: Estimating cashflow needs (3) The shortfall in income due to the disaster is $9450. However, it is possible, even likely, that the MFI may incur additional costs during this period as well, in which case additional cash reserves will be needed. Note also that two of the above variables are estimated variables – “duration of disaster period” and “repayment rate” in the affected area. That is, these variables are not known until after the disaster period is complete, and waiting for these variables to be measured is too late as far as cashflow and liquidity modeling is concerned.

4.Rencana Kesiapan Menghadapi Bencana oleh LKM Latihan kelompok: Bagi dalam beberapa kelompok Mengkaji kembali Lembar Kerja Kesiapan LKM Menggunakan lembar kerja sebagai pedoman, siapkanlah konsep Rencana Kesiapan Menghadapi Bencana oleh LKM Persiapkan presentasi selama 10-15 menit untuk rencana Anda SLIDE 26: PART 4. Disaster Preparedness Plans for MFIs Estimated Duration: 60 minutes class-time plus out-of-class time as required Technique: Group Exercise The Key Output of module 1 is that the MFI prepares a Disaster Preparedness Plan. Case Study Exercise Distribute the handout Ask participants to work in groups with colleagues from their own organization. While participants work on their plan, move through the group and monitor their progress. Provide assistance as required.