Harun Al-Rasyid Lubis / iTB FGD Penyusunan Konsep Transportasi Metropolitan Bandung Raya Bappeda Jabar Harun Al-Rasyid Lubis / iTB

Transit Affairs : To be More Precise .... TOO LATE TO BE TRUE POLICY INCONSISTENCIES MASTERPLAN & STUDIES ARE PILED UP Finally ,...... MP3EI NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES INCREASE Unrealistic transit plan Improved Bus Services, BRT and Monorail Enthusiasm

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Greater Bandung Monorail

Tantangan Pengembangan Angmum Perkotaan Moda Split - Jabodetabek Among the most difficult challenges facing urban transit are: Decentralization. Public transit systems are not designed to service low density and scattered urban areas that are increasingly dominating the landscape. The greater the decentralization of urban activities, the more difficult and expensive it becomes to serve urban areas with public transit. Additionally, decentralization promotes long distance trips on transit systems causing higher operating costs and revenue issues for flat fare transit systems. Fixity. The infrastructures of several public transit systems, notably rail and subway systems are fixed, while cities are dynamical entities, even if the pace of change can take decades. This implies that travel patterns tend to change and that a transit system built for servicing a specific pattern may eventually face "spatial obsolescence". Connectivity. Public transit systems are often independent from other modes and terminals. It is consequently difficult to transfer passengers from one system to the other. This lead to a paradox between the preference of riders to have direct connections and the need to provide a cost efficient service network that involves transfers. Competition. In view of cheap and ubiquitous road transport systems, public transit faced strong competition and loss ridership in relative terms and in some cases in absolute terms. The higher the level of automobile dependency, the more inappropriate the public transit level of service. The public service being offered is simply outpaced by the convenience of the automobile. However, changes in energy prices are likely to impose a new equilibrium in this relationship. Financing and fare structures. Most public transit systems have abandoned a fare structure to a simpler flat fare system. This had the unintended consequence of discouraging short trips for which most transit systems are well suited for, and encouraging longer trips that tend to be more costly per user than the fares they generate. Information systems offer the possibility for transit systems to move back to a more equitable distance based fare structure.

USULAN TRANSPORTASI BMA (SNCF – PT LAPI ITB, 2009)O Park & Ride USULAN TRANSPORTASI BMA (SNCF – PT LAPI ITB, 2009)O Sumber : SNCF – PT LAPI ITB, 2009

DUAL TRACK STRATEGY Saat ini sepeda motor menjadi pilihan. Agar sistem angkutan massal perkotaan dapat berfungsi optimal maka harus: Didukung oleh sistem feeder yang efektif Pola tata ruang yang ber-pola Transit Oriented Development Pricing policy dan kebijakan manajemen transportasi yang berbasis insentif dan dis-insentif

ATP WTP dan SP Hasil sampel data Tahun 2014 Hasil analisis Tahun 2013 Moda WTP (Rp/trip) ATP (Rp/trip) Angkot 12368 13438 Bus 13321 14410

Total Penumpang Skenario Monorel BMA (%) Tahun Angkot DAMRI TMB Kereta Monorel Total (orang) 2018 71627 32635 2156 10402 26800 143620 2019 101577 40692 3046 14029 64474 223818 2020 114646 45917 3481 16419 74716 255179 2021 127086 47956 3703 18415 83581 280741 2026 164490 46977 4045 32655 146371 394538 2031 58401 231548 505461 2036 87524 366416 669452 2041 127506 580044 923062 2046 183926 918553 1317991 2051 262424 1455144 1933080

Kurva Investasi/Km vs Tariff/km (IRR 17%)

Kurva Investasi/Km vs Tariff/km (IRR 17%)

Public monopoly  Market  Partnerships (PPP) 1. Good Public & Corporate Governance 2. Choosing Appropriate Assessment Procedure Government Parliement Private Sector & SOEs Communtiy / Civil Soceity Profess . Assoc Universities NGO Constitution MPW MoT MoHousing, MoHealth Regulatory Bodies Rules to be applied : Model good governance Government less govern Roles of private sect & Communtiy should be increased in phasing ( gradually ) Formation of regulatory bodies Prerequisite: Clean government Privates are capable Industy and society are professional / mature 15

Viability, Demand Risk & Guarantees Minimum Revenue Guarantee Revenue shared with Government Revenue ($) Government Revenue Support Revenue Cap User paid Revenue ($) time CADS(1) CADS(2) Tenor of Contract Risk Allocation Framework Optimality Clarity Certainty

STRUKTUR PROYEK MONORAIL JABAR (INDIKASI)

Existing PPP Framework – Stucked ! New Pres. Reg. 75 / 2014 KPPIP ? 20

Proposed PPP Institutional Reform Special PPP Delivery Unit under Presidential Office 21

…..Thank you …