Towards the Ambient Intelligence Era: A convergence of ubiquitous computing, communication and intelligent user interfaces Dr. Ir. Hendrawan KK TeknikTelekomunikasi School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics Institut Teknologi Bandung hend@stei.itb.ac.id Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

All I want you to tell me is what will be the Information and Communications Technology in the year 2015? Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

If you can dream it you can make it Future ???? Future Passive prediction dibuat dengan deduksi logika dan ekstrapolasi berdasarkan observasi subjektif dari masa lalu dan saat ini Active vision seperti didefinisikan Walt Disney If you can dream it you can make it Trends Arah jangka panjang dari aksi atau hasil Perubahan secara perlahan-lahan Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Memprediksi Inovasi Teknologi Rutherford: “ riset nuklir tidak mempunyai nilai ekonomis, militer ataupun politik” Lord Kelvin: “Radio tidak mempunyai masa depan” Thomas Alva Edison: “Film yg dp berbicara tidak akan menggantikan film bisu ….” SMS tidak ada yang memprediksi akan menjadi killer application di dunia mobile phones  Cannot be predicted with certainty ! Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Fakta & Trend Yg Terlihat … Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Fakta: Internet, Mobile Phones, Computing Power Pada akhir abad 20, dua inovasi utama muncul hampir bersamaan: Internet dan Mobile Phones serta kemampuan komputer yang makin powerfull (miniaturisasi) sebagai enabling technology Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Fakta: Internet, Mobile Phones Mengubah “landscape” telekomunikasi dan membangun motivasi yg memicu pertumbuhan ekonomi secara dramatis Pertumbuhan fenomenal dari penetrasi Internet & mobile phones terlihat pd grafik Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Fakta: Internet & Mobile Phones Pertumbuhan Mobile phones juga telah mengubah area telekomunikasi: Sejak 2002 pengguna mobile phone users telah melebihi pelanggan fixed phone utk pertama kalinya Fenomena ini terjadi secara lokal di Indonesia maupun global Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Mobile Phone Centric -- Future Millions 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Projected cellular subscribers More handsets than PCs connected to the Internet by the end of 2003 ! Projected Mobile Internet handsets Projected PCs connected to the Internet 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Dataquest 02/2002 Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Mobile Phone Centric Replacement Cycle 18 Months Siklus waktu penggantian telepon mobile terus menurun SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association) melaporkan saat ini siklus pengantian telepon mobile mencapai waktu 18 bulan Sumber: Financial Times 4 May, 2006 Own 2 phones to be cool Angles (British recruitment firm Office) menginterview 1500 anak muda Inggris usia kerja 45% mengatakan “anyone cool needs two phones, one for work and one for social use” Sumber: Reuters 16 Aug 2006 Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Mobile Industry Metrics 2005 Jumlah pelanggan 2.1 Milliar (Informa) Revenue mobile telecoms per tahun 624 Milliar USD (Strategy Analytics) Global ARPU 28.10 USD (TomiAhonen est) Revenue SMS sekitar 75 Milliar USD (TomiAhonen est) VAS/Mobile Entertainment bernilai 17.6 Milliar USD (Jupiter Research) Revenue MVNO 18.4 Milliar USD (Total Telecom) SMS digunakan oleh 63% yaitu 1.3 Milliar orang (Informa) 28% pengguna mengakses web via telepon mobile, yaitu 588 juta (Ipsos), kebanyakan dari mereka ini juga mengakses via PC Handset diganti setiap 18 bulan (Semiconductor Industry Assoc.) Penjualan handset 810 juta units and dengan revenue per tahun 115 Milliar USD (iSupply) Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Internet: Complex Network Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Enabling Technologies: Miniaturisation Moore’s Law Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Toward Ambient Intelligence with many M3 applications Convergence Mobility (NMT, GSM, UMTS,…) Telecom Industry Toward Ambient Intelligence with many M3 applications Internet PC PDA Computer Industry Commerce, infotainment Services Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Towards Ambient Intelligence Vision Towards Ambient Intelligence A convergence of ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and intelligent user interfaces will bring us towards the Ambient Intelligence era. Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Vision Services Terminals Networks Content Security Menuju penggunaan yang lebih natural dari layanan berbasis jaringan Terminals Dari suatu network-centered world menuju terminal-centered world Networks Peningkatan bandwidth dlm converging networks Content Digital multimedia data akan menjadi sumber trafik yg utama di jaringan Security Menuju trusted services dan end-to-end security Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Trend Teknologi Telekomunikasi (1) Pertumbuhan fenomenal dlm dua bidang Telecom (mobile) dan Datacom (Internet) mengarah ke konvergensi dari dua area ini Internet-like services ingin diimplementasika pd mobile service Higher speed mobile network (2.5G, 3G) diperlukan Internet Protocol (IP) memp. peran strategis dlm pengembangan dan implementasi jaringan telekomunikasi (All IP-based core network). Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Trend Teknologi Telekomunikasi (2) Integras dari konsep 3G dan IP network dirancang utk memungkinkan Internet-like services utk ditawarkan pd mobile services Konsep ini juga mengarah pd personalised mobile services : multimedia services anytime, anywhere by any end system Karakteristik umum 3G: Laju data tinggi: 144 Kbit/s pd mobilitas tinggi dan 2 Mbit/s pd mobilitas rendah dan indoor Menangani trafik circuit-switched dan packet-switched (IP) : memungkinkan multimedia services spt real-time video Kapasitas lebih tinggi Efisiensi spektrum meningkat Global roaming diantara operator 3G Open international standard Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Trend Teknologi Telekomunikasi (3) Konsep 3G sudah mulai diimplementasikan Namun implementasi aktual tdk sesukses spt yg diharapkan Tidak ada perbaikan signifikan utk layanan mobile multimedia services dibandingkan generasi sebelumnya Mulai mengeksplor konsep lain, beyond 3G, 4G … Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Trend Teknologi Telekomunikasi (4) Sistem kedepan harus memp. Karaktersitik sbb: All IP based core network Multi-access interoperability Menawarkan macam-macam teknologi akses ke terminal user dlm suatu arsitektur seamless network Multi-mode terminal Teknolgi akses berbeda terintegrasi dlm suatu platform common yg fleksibel dan expandable (software radio) Horizontal (intra-system) dan vertical (inter-system) handover Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Trend Teknologi Telekomunikasi (5): Konvergensi Definisi: Integrasi progresif dari macam-macam platform jaringan berbeda untuk “membawa” macam layanan yang sama dan/atau layanan berbeda “dibawa” melalui platform jaringan yang sama Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Kovergensi Jaringan CONTENT SERVICE CONTROL TRANSPORT ACCESS CPE Circuit Switched Network (Mobile Operator) Packet Switched Network (Mobile Operator) PSTN IP Network Broadcast network (Satellite, DTTV, Cable) Wireless Circuit Switched (eg. GSM, CDMA) Wireline Circuit Switched (eg. Copper Loop) Wireline Packet Switched (eg. ADSL, Cable, Ethernet) Wireless Packet Switched (eg. WLAN, UTRAN) Packet Switched Backbone Netowrk (IP) Content ACCESS TRANSPORT CONTROL M-Commerce Portal Communication Location-Based Interactive media ………. SERVICE CONTENT CPE Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Struktur Layering – Integrasi Horizontal Terminal Access Network Service Content Telecomm. Datacom/IT Broadcasting Media Lain Convergence - Digitalization - Coding Standard (MPEG, H263, dll.) - Multimedia Services - Triple Play - Packet-Based (IP) - Vertical Handover - Software Defined Radio - Multimode Multipurpose Terminal ACCESS (Provision of transmission & air interface to terminals) NETWORK (Backbone: provision of routing & mobility management) SERVICES (Provision of access to information services) CONTENT (Provision of Content) CPE/TERMINALS Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Tipe-Tipe Interface Interaction techniques Graphical User Interfaces Multi Modal User Interfaces Perceptual User Interfaces Conversational User Interfaces Tangible User Interfaces … Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Graphical User Interfaces Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) Standard Typing, pointing, dan clicking Windows, icons, menus, pointer (WIMP) paradigm Tidak dapat memenuhi untuk berbagai macam aplikasi masa depan Graphical User Interfaces Non-Standard Devices BARU Stereoscopic Displays VR dan Game Environments Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Multimodal User Interfaces Standard Visual Auditory Sounds Speech Non-Standard modalities lain Sensor olfactory, gustatory, hapstic, acoustic, visual, ….. Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Modality Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Perceptual User Interface (PUIs) Multiple interaction channels Kombinasi teknik-teknik Interaction Memahami kemampuan natural manusia termasuk komunikasi,, motor, cognitive, dan perceptual skills Computer I/O device Machine perception dan reasoning Kontrol mulut, wajah, mata, (full) body, breath, biologicalreactions (heart rate, skin resistancy, muscle, neural activity, …) Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Conversational User Interfaces Conversation augments (tidak mesti menggantikan) UI tradisional Cara natural untuk komunikasi Buruk Microsoft Office Assistant Baik Games, Web Speech Interface Alat bantu untuk orang cacat (mis. buta) Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Microsoft Office Assistant Office assistant mencoba membantu pengguna program Microsoft Office Pengguna dapat memilih penampilan agent Sayangnya, ini tidak mempunyai efek terhadap kemampuan agent Suatu paper clip lebih mungkin memberikan cara presentasi yang lebih baik drpd karakter asisten spt Merlin Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Tangible User Interfaces Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Voice Interfaces Perintah dalam bahasa natural IBM Via Voice (ASR) membuat perintah mudah untuk pengguna baru digunakan dalam games handicapped people Tipe interaksi alternatif (Web, Phone, ...) IBM Via Voice (ASR) Mac-Speech Interface (TTS, ASR) Voice Controlled navigation Systems Voice Portals (AT&T) Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence TV, Web dan Mobile Source: Tomi T Ahonen, Global Communication Trends - and their Implications on Regulatory Affairs Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence Skype telah mencapai 100 juta pengguna Menjadikan Skype operator telepon fixed kedua terbesar dunia (terbesar China Telecom), dan empat terbesar jika operator mobile diperhitungkan Estimasi revenue 2006: 200 M USD Sources: Telegeography April 29, 2006 Financial Times 19 Apr, 2006 Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence Shipwrecked? Social auditions RDF Media men-set up a website utk audisi dan hal-hal lain berhub dg reality TV show, Shipwrecked the online auditions site - islandoo – menjadi komunitas yg besar dg user-generated content Site mempunyai 18,000 profiles (kandidat) dg 1,5 juta komentar dan sudah ada 10 juta hal view Source: Financial Times 24 October 2006 Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence Sukses Virgin Mobile di Inggris sbg MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) pertama mendorong munculnya banyak MVNO lain MTV muncul sbg MVNO di Swedia, Jerman, … Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Brand MVNOs Saat Ini Virgin airline & music store chain, UK Tchibo coffee shop chain, Germany MTV (Music TV) TV channel, Sweden 7-Eleven convenience store chain, USA Twins popular pop band, Hong Kong Narvesan largest kiosk chain, Norway Hesburger big burger restaurant chain, Finland Financial Times newspaper , UK Eurokeitai digital community untuk Japanese expats di France Ministry of Sound disco operator, UK Super Stable network videogame, Hong Kong OnStar car telematics services company, USA NRJ radio station, Belgium Privatbank bank, Ukraine Aldi grocery store, Germany Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The “Y” Convergence Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

The 7 Mass Media 1st mass media Print 1500: Buy-to-Own, Advertising, Subscr. books, pamphlets, newspapers, music scores, magazines 2nd mass media recordings 1900: Sound vinyl, tape, CD, DVD: music, software, videogames, movies 3rd mass media cinema 1910: Multimedia, Pay per View silent, b/w sound, color, cinemascope: newsreels, movies 4th mass media radio 1920: Streaming, License AM, FM, stereo, digital: news, music, sports, drama 5th mass media TV 1950: (no innovation!) b/w, color, cable/satellite, digital: news, drama, soaps, reality 6th mass media internet 1995: interactive & search narrowband, broadband: email, search, browsing, downloading 7th mass media mobile 2000: pers./always-on/carried/payment 2G SMS, WAP, 2.5G, 3G: messaging, browsing Dp melakukan semua yg dp dilakukan enam media sblmnya, termasuk interactivity & search pd internet Personal mass media, always-on media, always carried media, built-in payment channel Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

7 Mass Media / Content Formats Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Peak Times untuk Media Laporan The Financial Times mengenai peak consumption times utk macam-macam jenis media di Inggris TV - one peak ("prime time") 6 - 10:30 PM Radio - 2 peaks, 7-8 AM and 4:30 - 5:30 PM eMail - 2 peaks 11 - 11:30 AM and 1:30 - 2 PM Browsing - 2 peaks 11 AM and 8 PM Mobile TV - one peak 4-8 PM SMS - 2 peaks 6 PM and 9 PM Source: Financial Times 30 October 2006 Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Top 20 Digital Maturity 2005 Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Penutup Riset dan tantangan konvergensi mencakup area yg luas karena kompleksitas dari heterogeneous mobile & IP networking Konvergensi akan menciptakan motivasi dan mendrive pertumbuhan ekonomis dan perubahan sosial Perkembangan ini akan berlanjut menuju ambient intelligence, anytime, anywhere, personalised context-awareness multimedia service concept Sebelum target akhir ini bisa dicapai masih banyak tantangan yang harus diselesaikan Karena tantangan yg besar ini memerlukan kerjasama yg erat diantara komunitas peneliti baik pada level nasional maupun internasional Disamping aspek teknologi, aspek regulasi, kebijakan dan hukum juga harus diantisipasi untuk mendukung perkembangan teknologi Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics

Thank You ! Telecommunications Engineering School of Electrical Engineering & Informatics