Pertemuan 10: Manajemen Resiko.

Presentasi berjudul: "Pertemuan 10: Manajemen Resiko."— Transcript presentasi:

1 Pertemuan 10: Manajemen Resiko

2 Outline Definisi Proses dalam manajemen resiko

3 Definisi Resiko : kejadian atau kondisi tidak pasti yang bisa mempengaruhi suatu poryek Tidak semua resiko negatif  kesempatan Tujuan dari manajemen resiko : meminimalisir resiko negatif dan memaksimalkan kesempatan yang mungkin terjadi Ketika suatu resiko benar-benar terjadi dalam proyek, penanganannya : Menghindari Mengurangi dampak Transfer Menerima

4 Proses dalam manajemen resiko
Planning Risk management planning Risk management process Risk identification – RBS Qualitative risk analysis – probabilitas & akibat Quantitative risk analysis – nilai numerik terhadap probabilitas dan akibat Monitoring & controlling Risk response planning

5 Planning Bagaimana menangani dan merencanakan kegiatan pengelolaan resiko Input Enterprise environmental factor Organizational process asset Project scope statement Project management plan Tool Planning meeting & analysis Output Risk management plan

6 Risk management plan Berisi tentang:
Kategori resiko – untuk mengelompokkan resiko RBS – mirip dengan WBS, tetapi dipergunakan untuk identifikasi dan kategorisasi resiko Akibat yang ditimbulkan resiko Kemungkinan kemunculan resiko

7 RBS

8 Risk identification Input Tool Output Enterprise environmental factor
Organizational process asset Project scope statement Project management plan Risk management plan Tool Documentation review Information gathering techniques (brainstorming, interview, delphi technique, SWOT analysis, root cause identification) Checklist analysis Assumption analysis Diagramming techniques Output Risk register

9 Risk register No Identified risk Potential response Root cause

10 Qualitative risk analysis
Tujuan utama : Meranking resiko – seberapa mungkin bisa terjadi dan seberapa besar dampak terhadap proyek (cost, quality, scope) Input : Organizational process asset Risk register Risk management plan Project scope statement Tools Risk probability & impact assessment Probability & impact matrix – untuk menemukan prioritas Risk data quality assessment Risk categorization Risk urgency assessment Output Updated risk register

11 Updated risk register No Identified risk Potential response Root cause
Category Priority Urgency

12 Quantitative risk analysis
Input : Organizational process assets Updated risk register Risk management plan Project management plan Project scope statement Tools : Gathering information : Interview Probability distribution Expert judgement Lesson learned

13 Output : Analisa : Updated risk register
Sensitivity analysis – tornado diagrams Expected monetary value analysis Modelling & distribution – monte carlo analysis Output : Updated risk register

14 Risk response planning
Apa yang akan kita lakukan ketika resiko terjadi Input : Updated risk register Risk management plan Tools Negative risk – mitigate, avoid, transfer, accept Positive risk – exploit, share, enhance, accept Output Updated contract Updated management plan

15 Updated risk register No Identified risk Potential response Root cause
Risk owner Category Priority Urgency

16 Risk monitoring & control
Input : Risk management plan Risk register WPI Performance report Approved change request Tools : Status meeting Risk reassessment Risk audit Variance and trend analysis

17 Output : Technical performance measurement Reserve analysis
Updated risk register Requested changes Recommended corrective/preventive action Updated organizational process assets Updated project mgmt plan