VALUING COMMON STOCKS Expected return : the percentage yield that an investor forecasts from a specific investment over a set period of time. Sometimes.

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1 VALUING COMMON STOCKS Expected return : the percentage yield that an investor forecasts from a specific investment over a set period of time. Sometimes called the holding period return (HPR) Expected return = (Div 1 + P 1 – P 0 )/P 0 = Dividen Yield + Capital Appreciation = Div 1 /P 0 + (P 1 – P 0 )/P 0 Dividen Discount Model : Computation of today’s stock price which states that share value equals the present value P 0 ={[Div 1 /(1+r) 1 ] + [Div 2 /(1+r) 2 ] +... +[(Div H +P H )/(1+r) H ]}

2 VALUING COMMON STOCKS Example : Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay dividends of $3, $3.24 and $3,50 over the next three years, respectively. At the end of three years you anticipate selling your stock at a market price of $94.48. What is the price of the stock given a 12% expected return? (PV = $75.00) If we forecast no growth, and plan to hold out stock indefinitely, we will then value the stock as a PERPETUITY. Perpetuity = P o = Div 1 /r or EPS/r Constant Growth DDM : A version of the dividend growth model in which dividends grow at a constant rate ( Gordon Growth Model )

3 VALUING COMMON STOCKS ► GGM,  P 0 = Div 1 /(r – g) ► Example : What is the value of a stock that expects to pay a $3.00 dividend next year, and then increase the dividen at a rate of 8% per year, indefinitely? Assume a 12% expected return.(P 0 = $75.00) ► If the same stock is selling for $100 in the stock market, what might the market be assuming about the growth in dividends? (g =.09) ► If a firm elects to pay a lower dividen, and reinvest the funds, the stock price may increase because future dividends may be higher ► Payout Ratio : Fraction of earnings paid out as dividends ► Plowback Ratio : Fraction of earnings retained by the firm ► g = return on equity x plowback ratio

4 VALUING COMMON STOCKS Example : Our company forecasts to pay a $5.00 dividen next year, which represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a 12% expected return. Instead, we decide to plowback 40% of the earnings at the firm’s current return on equity of 20%. What is the value of the stock before and after the plowback decision? (No growth : P 0 = 5/.12 = $41.67 ; With growth : g =.20x.40 =.08, and P 0 = 3/(.12 -.08) = $75.00) If the company did not plowback some earnings, the stock price would remain at $41.67. With the plowback, the price rose to $75.00 The difference between these two numbers ($75.00 - $41.67) is called the Present Value of Growth Oppurtunities (PVGO). PVGO : Net Present Value of a firm’s future investment Sustainable Growth Rate : Steady rate at which a firm can grow: plowback ratio x return on equity

5 KONSEP PENENTUAN HARGA SAHAM Expectation: a) Dividen, b) capital gain Expectation: a) Dividen, b) capital gain Dalam penentuan harga saham  Time value of money concept Dalam penentuan harga saham  Time value of money concept Harga saham dipengaruhi: a) r (gunakan CAPM) dipengaruhi β dan R f, b) Div dipengaruhi laba. Harga saham dipengaruhi: a) r (gunakan CAPM) dipengaruhi β dan R f, b) Div dipengaruhi laba. MODEL BERDASARKAN ARUS KAS 1. Model dengan pertumbuhan konstan, asumsi ; a. Perusahaan mempertahankan DPR sbg dividen yg konstan b. Setiap laba yg diinvestasikan kembali memperoleh tingkat keuntungan yg sama setiap tahunnya. c.Sbg akibatnya maka EPS dan DPS akan meningkat dengan % yg konstan setiap tahunnya : Do = Eo(1 – b), D1= E1(1 – b) PER = (1 – b)/(r - g)

6 continue 2. Model dengan dua periode pertumbuhan : pertumbuhan tidak diasumsikan konstan selamanya, tetapi akan berubah setelah periode tertentu. 3. Model dengan tiga periode pertumbuhan, perluasan model 2 4. Model Regresi Crossectional Faktor yg mempengaruhi PER;  a. Elton Gruber (1991); PER = a + b (pertumbuhan div atau laba) b. Whitbecker-Kisor (1969) ; i) tingkat pertumbuhan laba, ii) DPR, iii) Deviasi standar tingkat pertumbuhan PER = a + β 1 a + β 2 b + β 3 c