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METODE ILMIAH Soemarno 2014. SAINS Sains (dari bahasa Latin scientia, berarti “pengetahuan") merupakan suatu “enterprise” yang membangun dan mengorganisir.

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Presentasi berjudul: "METODE ILMIAH Soemarno 2014. SAINS Sains (dari bahasa Latin scientia, berarti “pengetahuan") merupakan suatu “enterprise” yang membangun dan mengorganisir."— Transcript presentasi:

1 METODE ILMIAH Soemarno 2014

2 SAINS Sains (dari bahasa Latin scientia, berarti “pengetahuan") merupakan suatu “enterprise” yang membangun dan mengorganisir pengetahuan dalam bentuk eksplanasi dan prediksi yang dapat diuji mengenai “jagad raya”. In an older and closely related meaning (found, for example, in Aristotle), "science" refers to the body of reliable knowledge itself, of the type that can be logically and rationally explained. In the early modern era the words "science" and "philosophy" were sometimes used interchangeably in the English language. Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

3 FILSAFAT SAINS Filsafat Sains membahas tentang asumsi-asumsi, landasan, metode-metode, dan implikasi dari sains. Filsafat Sains juga berhubungan dengan penggunaan dan manfaat sains dan kadang-kadang overlaping dengan metafisik dan epistemologi dengan jalan mengeksplorasi apakah hasil-hasil ilmiah merupakan kajian tentang kebenaran. In addition to these central problems of science as a whole, many philosophers of science also consider problems that apply to particular sciences (e.g. philosophy of biology or philosophy of physics). Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

4 PENJELASAN ILMIAH In addition to providing predictions about future events, we often take scientific theories to offer explanations for those that occur regularly or have already occurred. Philosophers have investigated the criteria by which a scientific theory can be said to have successfully explained a phenomenon, as well as what gives a scientific theory explanatory power.explanatory power One early and influential theory of scientific explanation was put forward by Carl G. Hempel and Paul Oppenheim in Their Deductive-Nomological (D-N) model of explanation says that a scientific explanation succeeds by subsuming a phenomenon under a general law.Carl G. Hempel Deductive-Nomological Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

5 PENJELASAN = EXPLANATION “PENJELASAN = EKSPLANASI” An explanation is a set of statements constructed to describe a set of facts which clarifies the causes, context, and consequences of those facts. This description may establish rules or laws, and may clarify the existing ones in relation to any objects, or phenomena examined. The components of an explanation can be implicit, and be interwoven with one another. An explanation is often underpinned by an understanding that is represented by different media such as music, text, and graphics. Thus, an explanation is subjected to interpretation, and discussion. In scientific research, explanation is one of the purposes of research, e.g., exploration and description. Explanation is a way to uncover new knowledge, and to report relationships among different aspects of studied phenomena. Explanations have varied explanatory power. Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

6 INQUIRY “Inquiry” merupakan suatu proses yang bertujuan untuk menghimpun pengetahuan, menjawab keraguan, atau menyelesaikan permasalahan. A theory of inquiry is an account of the various types of inquiry and a treatment of the ways that each type of inquiry achieves its aim. Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

7 The Process of Inquiry and Research. Diunduh dari: ns/info_studies/html/ research.html

8 The Process of Inquiry and Research. Diunduh dari: n/positions/info _studies/html/re search.html

9 METODE ILMIAH Metode ilmiah adalah teknik-teknik untuk investigasi fenomena dan mendapatkan pengetahuan baru, untuk mengoreksi dan mengintegrasikan pengetahuan- pengetahuan yang telah ada. It is based on gathering observable, empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning, the collection of data through observation and experimentation, and the formulation and testing of hypotheses.

10 Meskipun prosedur-prosedur yang lazim digunakan sangat beragam, namun ada sifat-sifat khusus yang membedakan “metode ilmiah” demngan metode non-ilmiah. Peneliti-peneliti ilmiah mengusulkan “hypothesis” sebagai “penjelasan sementara” atas fenomena yang dikaji, dan merancang studi-studi eksperimental untuk menguji hipotesis tersebut. Tahapan-tahapan ini harus dapat diulangi untuk menguji hasil- hasilnya. Theories that encompass wider domains of inquiry may bind many hypotheses together in a coherent structure. This in turn may assist in the formation of new hypotheses, as well as in placing groups of hypotheses into a broader context of understanding. METODE ILMIAH

11 Among other facets shared by the various fields of inquiry is the conviction that the process must be objective to reduce a biased interpretation of the results. Another basic expectation is to document, archive and share all data and methodology so it is available for careful scrutiny by other scientists, thereby allowing other researchers the opportunity to verify results by attempting to reproduce them.archiveshare This practice, called "full disclosure", also allows statistical measures of the reliability of these data to be established. METODE ILMIAH

12 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 EMPIRIK Science is based purely around observation and measurement, and the vast majority of research involves some type of practical experimentation.measurementexperimentation Cutting a long story short, Plato believed that all knowledge could be reasoned; Aristotle that knowledge relied upon empirical observation and measurement.reasonedmeasurement This does bring up one interesting anomaly. Strictly speaking, the great physicists, such as Einstein and Stephen Hawking, are not scientists. They generate sweeping and elegant theories and mathematical models to describe the universe and the very nature of time, but measure nothing. In reality, they are mathematicians, occupying their own particular niche, and they should properly be referred to as theoreticians. Still, they are still commonly referred to as scientists and do touch upon the scientific method in that any theory they have can be destroyed by a single scrap of empirical evidence.

13 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 BERTUMPU PADA DATA The scientific method uses some type of measurement to analyze results, feeding these findings back into theories of what we know about the world. There are two major ways of obtaining data, through measurement and observation. These are generally referred to as quantitative and qualitative measurements.measurementquantitative qualitative Quantitative measurements are generally associated with what are known as ‘hard' sciences, such as physics, chemistry and astronomy. They can be gained through experimentation or through observation.experimentation For Example: At the end of the experiment, 50% of the bacteria in the sample treated with penicillin were left alive. The experiment showed that the moon is km away from the earth. The pH of the solution was 7.1 Read more: method.html#ixzz27DWjH3q5 method.html#ixzz27DWjH3q5

14 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 The Scientific Method is Intellectual and Visionary Science requires vision, and the ability to observe the implications of results. Collecting data is part of the process, and it also needs to be analyzed and interpreted. However, the visionary part of science lies in relating the findings back into the real world. Even pure sciences, which are studied for their own sake rather than any practical application, are visionary and have wider goals. The process of relating findings to the real world is known as induction, or inductive reasoning, and is a way of relating the findings to the universe around us.inductive reasoning Read more: method.html#ixzz27DbMG5r0http://www.experiment- method.html#ixzz27DbMG5r0

15 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 Science Uses Experiments to Test Predictions This process of induction and generalization allows scientists to make predictions about how they think that something should behave, and design an experiment to test it.inductiongeneralizationdesign an experiment This experiment does not always mean setting up rows of test tubes in the lab or designing surveys. It can also mean taking measurements and observing the natural world. designing surveys Wegener's ideas, whilst denigrated by many scientists, aroused the interest of a few. They began to go out and look for other evidence that the continents moved around the Earth. From Wegener's initial idea of continents floating through the ocean floor, scientists now understand, through a process of prediction and measurement, the process of plate tectonics.measurement The exact processes driving the creation of new crust and the subduction of others are still not fully understood but, almost 100 years after Wegener's idea, scientists still build upon his initial work.

16 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 Systematic and Methodical Scientists are very conservative in how they approach results and they are naturally very skeptical. It takes more than one experiment to change the way that they think, however loud the headlines, and any results must be retested and repeated until a solid body of evidence is built up. This process ensures that researchers do not make mistakes or purposefully manipulate evidence.experimentrepeated In Wegener's case, his ideas were not accepted until after his death, when the amount of evidence supporting continental drift became irrefutable. This process of changing the current theories, called a paradigm shift, is an integral part of the scientific method. Most groundbreaking research, such as Einstein's Relativity or Mendel's Genetics, causes a titanic shift in the prevailing scientific thought.paradigm shiftMendel's Genetics

17 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 The scientific method has evolved, over many centuries, to ensure that scientists make meaningful discoveries, founded upon logic and reason rather than emotion. The exact process varies between scientific disciplines, but they all follow the above principle of observe - predict - test - generalize.observepredict testgeneralize

18 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012 Metode ilmiah merupakan suatu prosedur (urutan langkah) yang harus dilakukan untuk melakukan suatu proyek ilmiah (science project). Secara umum metode ilmiah meliputi langkah-langkah berikut: Observasi Awal Mengidentifikasi Masalah Merumuskan atau Menyatakan Hipotesis Melakukan Eksperimen Menyimpulkan Hasil Eksperimen

19 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012 Setelah topik yang akan diteliti secara ilmiah ditentukan, maka langkah pertama untuk melakukan riset ilmiah adalah melakukan observasi awal untuk mengumpulkan informasi tentang segala sesuatu yang berhubungan dengan topik tersebut melalui pengalaman, berbagai sumber ilmu pengetahuan, berkonsultasi dengan ahli yang sesuai. Gunakan semua referensi: buku, jurnal, majalah, koran, internet, interview, dll. Kumpulkan informasi dari ahli: instruktur, peneliti, insinyur, dll. Lakukan eksplorasi lain yang berhubungan dengan topik.

20 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012 IDENTIFIKASI MASALAH Permasalahan merupakan pertanyaan ilmiah yang harus dijawab. Permasalahan dinyatakan dalam pertanyaan terbuka yaitu pertanyaan dengan jawaban berupa suatu pernyataan, bukan jawaban ya atau tidak. Contoh: Bagaimana cara menyimpan energi surya di rumah? Batasi permasalahan seperlunya agar tidak terlalu luas. Pilih permasalahan yang penting dan menarik untuk diteliti. Pilih permasalahan yang dapat diselesaikan secara eksperimen.

21 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012 MERUMUSKAN HIPOTESIS Hipotesis merupakan suatu ide atau dugaan sementara tentang penyelesaian masalah yang diajukan dalam proyek ilmiah. Hipotesis dirumuskan atau dinyatakan sebelum penelitian yang seksama atas topik proyek ilmiah dilakukan, karenanya kebenaran hipotesis ini perlu diuji lebih lanjut melalui penelitian yang seksama. Hal yang perlu diingat, jika menurut hasil pengujian ternyata hipotesis tidak benar bukan berarti penelitian yang dilakukan salah. Gunakan pengalaman atau pengamatan lalu sebagai dasar hipotesis Rumuskan hipotesis sebelum memulai proyek eksperimen

22 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012 Melaksanakan Eksperimen Eksperimen dirancang dan dilakukan untuk menguji hipotesis yang diajukan. Ada tiga jenis variabel yang perlu diperhatikan pada eksperimen: variabel bebas, variabel terikat, dan variabel kontrol. Varibel bebas merupakan variabel yang dapat diubah secara bebas. Variabel terikat adalah variabel yang diteliti, yang perubahannya bergantung pada variabel bebas. Variabel kontrol adalah variabel yang selama eksperimen dipertahankan tetap. 1.Usahakan hanya satu variabel bebas selama eksperimen. 2.Pertahankan kondisi yang tetap pada variabel-variabel yang diasumsikan konstan. 3.Lakukan eksperimen berulang kali untuk memvariasi hasil. 4.Catat hasil eksperimen secara lengkap dan seksama.

23 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012 Menyimpulkan Hasil Eksperimen Kesimpulan merupakan ringkasan hasil proyek eksperimen dan pernyataan bagaimana hubungan antara hasil eksperimen dengan hipotesis. Alasan-alasan untuk hasil eksperimen yang bertentangan dengan hipotesis termasuk di dalamnya. Jika dapat dilakukan, kesimpulan dapat diakhiri dengan memberikan pemikiran untuk penelitian lebih lanjut. Jika hasil eksperimen tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis: 1.Jangan diubah hipotesisnya 2.Jangan diabaikan hasil eksperimen 3.Berikan alasan yang masuk akal mengapa tidak sesuai 4.Berikan cara-cara yang mungkin dilakukan selanjutnya untuk menemukan penyebab ketidaksesuaian 5.Bila cukup waktu lakukan eksperimen sekali lagi atau susun ulang eksperimen.

24 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH : 1.Karya Ilmiah Harus Berdasarkan Fakta Menulis karya ilmiah harus berdasarkan fakta, bukan hasil imajinasi atau semacammnya. “Fakta” biasanya berupa data empiris yang dapat diukur dan dianalisis lebih lanjut. 2.Karya Ilmiah Harus Berdasarkan Pertimbangan Objektif. Pertimbangan objektif didasarkan pada pertimbangan apa adanya bukan bersifat subyektif, bebas dari prasangka dan kira- kira.

25 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH : 3. Karya Ilmiah Harus Menggunakan Asas Analisis Maksudnya, karya ilmiah itu harus dapat dianalisis (diuraikan, dibandingkan, diinterpretasikan). yang artinya karya ilmiah harus dapat menggambarkan karakteristik, fungsi dan kaitan pmasalahan satu dg lainnya. 4. Karya Ilmiah Harus Bersifat Kuantitatif – Kualitatif Pendekatan ilmiah berbeda dengan pendekatan alamiah. Pendekatan ilmiah sifatnya kuantitatif, sedangkan pendekatan alamiah biasanya bersifat kualitatif.

26 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH : 5.Karya Ilmiah Menggunakan Logika Deduktif – Hipotetik Logika deduktif adalah penalaran yang bertitik tolak dari hal-hal yang sifatnya umum dan sudah memiliki kebenaran yang pasti baik dari hasil penelitian para pakar atau dari yang lainnya. Kebenaran hipotesis harus dibuktikan secara empiris melalui penelitian lapangan maka disebut bahwa karya ilmiah tersebut sesuai logika deduktif-hipotetik

27 APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ? Diunduh dari: 22/9/2012 KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH : 6. Karya Ilmiah Harus Menggunakan Logika Induktif Generalisasi Kebenaran hipotesis bersifat rasional, oleh karenanya bersifat sementara. Untuk memperoleh kebenaran ilmiah masih harus dibuktikan dengan data empiris hasil penelitian. Kesimpulan dari data empiris bersifat generalisasi, sedangkan kesesuaian data empiris dengan pemikiran rasional hipotesis disebut asas korespondensi. Kesimpulan yang bersifat generalisasi dari data empiris disebut logika induktif yang kebenrannya bersifat probabilistik.

28 There are multiple ways of outlining the basic method shared by all of the fields of scientific inquiry. The following examples are typical classifications of the most important components of the method on which there is very wide agreement in the scientific community and among philosophers of science, each of which are subject only to marginal disagreements about a few very specific aspects.scientific communityphilosophers of science UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

29 Observation. A constant feature of scientific inquiry, observation includes both unconditioned observations (prior to any theory) as well as the observation of the experiment and its results. Description. Information derived from experiments must be reliable, i.e., replicable (repeatable), as well as valid (relevant to the inquiry). Prediction. Information must be valid for observations past, present, and future of given phenomena, i.e., purported "one shot" phenomena do not give rise to the capability to predict, nor to the ability to repeat an experiment. METODE ILMIAH MELIBATKAN:

30 Control. Actively and fairly sampling the range of possible occurrences, whenever possible and proper, as opposed to the passive acceptance of opportunistic data, is the best way to control or counterbalance the risk of empirical bias. Identification of causes. Identification of the causes of a particular phenomenon to the best achievable extent. For cause-and- effect relationship to be established, the following must be established: Time-order relationship. The hypothesized causes must precede the observed effects in time. Covariation of events. The hypothesized causes must correlate with observed effects. However, correlations between events or variables are not necessarily indicative of causation.correlate METODE ILMIAH MELIBATKAN:

31 This is a gradual process that requires repeated experiments by multiple researchers who must be able to replicate results in order to corroborate them.: Semua hipotesis dan teori pada hakekatnya dapat ditolak (tidak terbukti). Thus, there is a point at which there might be a consensus about a particular hypothesis or theory, yet it must in principle remain tentative. As a body of knowledge grows and a particular hypothesis or theory repeatedly brings predictable results, confidence in the hypothesis or theory increases. Eliminasi alternatif yang layak

32 Another simplified model sometimes utilized to summarize scientific method is the "operational": The essential elements of a scientific method are operations, observations, models, and a utility function for evaluating models.operations observationsmodelsutility function OperationOperation - Some action done to the system being investigated ObservationObservation - What happens when the operation is done to the system ModelModel - A fact, hypothesis, theory, or the phenomenon itself at a certain momentfacthypothesistheory Utility Function Utility Function - A measure of the usefulness of the model to explain, predict, and control, and of the cost of use of it UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

33 One of the elements of any scientific utility function is the refutability of the model.refutability Another is its simplicity, on the Principle of Parsimony also known as Occam's Razor.simplicityPrinciple of Parsimony Occam's Razor The following is a more thorough description of the method. This set of methodological elements and organization of procedures will in general tend to be more characteristic of natural sciences and experimental psychology than of disciplines commonly categorized as social sciences. Among the latter, methods of verification and testing of hypotheses may involve less stringent mathematical and statistical interpretations of these elements within the respective disciplines. Nonetheless the cycle of hypothesis, verification and formulation of new hypotheses will tend to resemble the basic cycle described below. UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

34 The essential elements of a scientific method are iterations, recursions, interleavings, and orderings of the following:iterations recursionsinterleavingsorderings 1.Characterizations (Kuantifikasi, Observasi dan Pengukuran) 2.Hypotheses (Penjelasan teoritis, hipotetis atas observasi dan pengukuran) 3.Predictions (penalaran yang mencakup deduksi logis dari hipoptesis dan teori) 4.Experiments (Menguji semua hal di atas) UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

35 Imre LakatosImre Lakatos and Thomas Kuhn had done extensive work on the "theory laden" character of observation.Thomas Kuhn Kuhn (1961) maintained that the scientist generally has a theory in mind before designing and undertaking experiments so as to make empirical observations, and that the "route from theory to measurement can almost never be traveled backward". This perspective implies that the way in which theory is tested is dictated by the nature of the theory itself, which led Kuhn (1961) to argue that "once it has been adopted by a profession... no theory is recognized to be testable by any quantitative tests that it has not already passed". UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

36 Each element of the scientific method is subject to peer review for possible mistakes.peer review These activities do not describe all that scientists do (see below) but apply mostly to experimental sciences (e.g., physics, chemistry).see below The elements above are often taught in the educational system.the educational system UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

37 TAHAPAN METODE ILMIAH The steps of the scientific method are to: 1.Ask a Question - observation and description of a phenomenon or phenomena. Ask a question you are trying to answer 2.Do Background Research - some research on how you think the answer to your question may be 3.Construct a Hypothesis - formulate a hypothesis to explain the phenomena. 4.Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment - performance of experiemental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments. 5.Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion - what happened in your experiment? Did it go with or against your hypothesis? What could you do different next time? 6.Communicate your results DIUNDUH DARI: method-activity html... 21/9/2012 method-activity html

38 METODE ILMIAH depends upon increasingly more sophisticated characterizations of subjects of the investigation. (The subjects can also be called unsolved problems or the unknowns, MASALAH PENELITIAN).unsolved problems For example, Benjamin Franklin correctly characterized St. Elmo's fire as electrical in nature, but it has taken a long series of experiments and theory to establish this.Benjamin FranklinSt. Elmo's fireelectricalnature While seeking the pertinent properties of the subjects, this careful thought may also entail some definitions and observations; the observations often demand careful measurements and/or counting.observations measurements KARAKTERISASI

39 The systematic, careful collection of measurements or counts of relevant quantities is often the critical difference between pseudo-sciences, such as alchemy, and a science, such as chemistry or biology. Scientific measurements taken are usually tabulated, graphed, or mapped, and statistical manipulations, such as correlation and regression, performed on them.correlationregression The measurements might be made in a controlled setting, such as a laboratory, or made on more or less inaccessible or unmanipulatable objects such as stars or human populations. The measurements often require specialized scientific instruments such as thermometers, spectroscopes, or voltmeters, and the progress of a scientific field is usually intimately tied to their invention and development. KARAKTERISASI

40 Measurements in scientific work are also usually accompanied by estimates of their uncertainty. uncertainty The uncertainty is often estimated by making repeated measurements of the desired quantity. Uncertainties may also be calculated by consideration of the uncertainties of the individual underlying quantities that are used. Counts of things, such as the number of people in a nation at a particular time, may also have an uncertainty due to limitations of the method used. Counts may only represent a sample of desired quantities, with an uncertainty that depends upon the sampling method used and the number of samples taken. KETIDAK-PASTIAN

41 Measurements demand the use of operational definitions of relevant quantities; DEFINISI OPERASIONAL.operational definitions That is, a scientific quantity is described or defined by how it is measured, as opposed to some more vague, inexact or "idealized" definition. For example, electrical current, measured in amperes, may be operationally defined in terms of the mass of silver deposited in a certain time on an electrode in an electrochemical device that is described in some detail.electrical current DEFINISI

42 The operational definition of a thing often relies on comparisons with standards: The operational definition of "mass" ultimately relies on the use of an artifact, such as a certain kilogram of platinum-iridium kept in a laboratory in France. DEFINISI OPERASIONAL

43 The scientific definition of a term sometimes differs substantially from their natural language usage. For example, mass and weight overlap in meaning in common discourse, but have distinct meanings in mechanics.massweight mechanics Scientific quantities are often characterized by their units of measure which can later be described in terms of conventional physical units when communicating the work. KUANTITI ILMIAH

44 New theories sometimes arise upon realizing that certain terms had not previously been sufficiently clearly defined. For example, Albert Einstein's first paper on relativity begins by defining simultaneity and the means for determining length.Albert Einstein'srelativitysimultaneitylength These ideas were skipped over by Isaac Newton with, "I do not define time, space, place and motion, as being well known to all."Isaac Newtontimemotion Einstein's paper then demonstrates that they (viz., absolute time and length independent of motion) were approximations. RELATIVITAS

45 Hypothesis Prof. Dr. Md. Ghulam Murtaza Khulna University Khulna, Bangladesh 23 February 2012

46 Definisi Hipotesis The word hypothesis is derived form the Greek words: “hypo” means under “tithemi” means place Under known facts of the problem to explain relationship between these is a statement subject to verification a guess but experienced guess based on some facts 3. … a hunch, assumption, suspicion, assertion or an idea about a phenomena, relationship, or situation, the reality of truth of which one do not know A researcher calls these assumptions, assertions, statements, or hunches hypotheses and they become the basis of an inquiry. In most cases, the hypothesis will be based upon either previous studies or the researcher’s own or someone else’s observations Hypothesis is a conjectural statement of relationship between two or more variable.

47  Hypothesis is proposition, condition or principle which is assumed, perhaps without belief, in order to draw its logical consequences and by this method to test its accord with facts which are known or may be determined (Webster’s New International Dictionary of English).  A tentative statement about something, the validity of which is usually unknown (Black, James A & Dean J Champion, Method and Issues in Social Research, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 1976)  Hypothesis is proposition that is stated is a testable form and that predicts a particular relationship between two or more variable. In other words, id we think that a relationship exists, we first state it is hypothesis and then test hypothesis in the field (Baily, Kenneth D, Methods of Social Research, 3 rd edition, New York: The Free Press, 1978) Definisi Hipotesis

48 A hypothesis is written in such a way that it can be proven or disproven by valid and reliable data – in order to obtain these data that we perform our study (Grinnell, Richard, Jr. Social Work Research and Evaluation, 3 rd edition, Itasca, Illinois, F.E. Peacock Publishers, 1988) A hypothesis may be defined as a tentative theory or supposition set up and adopted provisionally as a basis of explaining certain facts or relationships and as a guide in the further investigation of other facts or relationships (Crisp, Richard D, Marketing Research, New York: McGraw Hill Book Co., 1957 ) Definisi Hipotesis

49 Karakteristik Hipotesis 1.Proposisi yang bersifat tentatif 2.Validitas tidak diketahui 3.Hubungan spesifik antara dua atau lebih variabel.

50 Fungsi Hipotesis Bringing clarity to the research problem Fungsi-fungsi Hipotesis: 1.Menyediakan / menjadi fokus riset 2.Memperjelas aspek-aspek khusus dari masalah riset yang akan diteliti 3.Data apa yang harus dikumpulkan dan data apa yang tidak dikumpulkan 4.Mendukung obyektivitas riset 5.Memformulasi teori 6.Memungkinkan untuk menyimpulkan “apa yang benar” atau “apa yang salah”

51 Karakteristik Hipotesis Simple, specific, and contextually clear Capable of verification Related to the existing body of knowledge Operationalisable

52 Tiga tipe hipotesis: Hipotesis kerja = Working hypothesis Hipoptesis nol = Null hypothesis Hipotesis alternatif = Alternate hypothesis Hipotesis Kerja The working or trail hypothesis is provisionally adopted to explain the relationship between some observed facts for guiding a researcher in the investigation of a problem. A Statement constitutes a trail or working hypothesis (which) is to be tested and conformed, modifies or even abandoned as the investigation proceeds. Tipologi Hipotesis

53 Hipotesis Nol A null hypothesis is formulated against the working hypothesis; opposes the statement of the working is contrary to the positive statement made in the working hypothesis; formulated to disprove the contrary of a working hypothesis When a researcher rejects a null hypothesis, he/she actually proves a working hypothesis In statistics, to mean a null hypothesis usually Ho is used. For example, Ho  Q = O where Q is the property of the population under investigation O is hypothetical Tipologi Hipotesis

54 Hipothesis Alternatif An alternate hypothesis is formulated when a researcher totally rejects null hypothesis He/she develops such a hypothesis with adequate reasons The notion used to mean alternate hypothesis is H 1  Q>O i.e., Q is greater than O

55 Contoh Hipotesis  HIPOTESIS KERJA: Population influences the number of bank branches in a town  HIPOTESIS NOL (Ho): Population do not have any influence on the number of bank branches in a town. HIPOTESIS ALTERNATIF (H 1 ): Population has significant effect on the number of bank branches in a town. A researcher formulates this hypothesis only after rejecting the null hypothesis.

56 A hypothesis is a suggested explanation of a phenomenon, or alternately a reasoned proposal suggesting a possible correlation between or among a set of phenomena.hypothesis Normally hypotheses have the form of a mathematical model. Sometimes, but not always, they can also be formulated as existential statements, stating that some particular instance of the phenomenon being studied has some characteristic and causal explanations, which have the general form of universal statements, stating that every instance of the phenomenon has a particular characteristic.mathematical model existential statementsuniversal statements PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

57 Scientists are free to use whatever resources they have — their own creativity, ideas from other fields, induction, Bayesian inference, and so on — to imagine possible explanations for a phenomenon under study.inductionBayesian inference Charles Sanders PeirceCharles Sanders Peirce, borrowing a page from Aristotle (Prior Analytics, 2.25) described the incipient stages of inquiry, instigated by the "irritation of doubt" to venture a plausible guess, as abductive reasoning.AristotlePrior Analytics2.25inquiryabductive reasoning The history of science is filled with stories of scientists claiming a "flash of inspiration", or a hunch, which then motivated them to look for evidence to support or refute their idea. Michael PolanyiMichael Polanyi made such creativity the centrepiece of his discussion of methodology. PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

58 Karl PopperKarl Popper, following others, developing and inverting the views of the Austrian logical positivists, has argued that a hypothesis must be falsifiable, and that a proposition or theory cannot be called scientific if it does not admit the possibility of being shown false.logical positivistsfalsifiable It must at least in principle be possible to make an observation that would show the proposition to be false, even if that observation had not yet been made. PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

59 William GlenWilliam Glen observes that the success of a hypothesis, or its service to science, lies not simply in its perceived "truth", or power to displace, subsume or reduce a predecessor idea, but perhaps more in its ability to stimulate the research that will illuminate … bald suppositions and areas of vagueness. In general scientists tend to look for theories that are "elegant" or "beautiful".elegantbeautiful In contrast to the usual English use of these terms, they here refer to a theory in accordance with the known facts, which is nevertheless relatively simple and easy to handle. Occam's RazorOccam's Razor serves as a rule of thumb for making these determinations. PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

60 Hipotesis yang bagus dapat digunakan untuk prediksi, dengan jalan penalaran, termasuk penalaran deduktif. It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon in nature. The prediction can also be statistical and only talk about probabilities. PREDIKSI DARI HIPOTESIS

61 It is essential that the outcome be currently unknown. Only in this case does the eventuation increase the probability that the hypothesis be true. If the outcome is already known, it's called a consequence and should have already been considered while formulating the hypothesis.formulating the hypothesis If the predictions are not accessible by observation or experience, the hypothesis is not yet useful for the method, and must wait for others who might come afterward, and perhaps rekindle its line of reasoning. For example, a new technology or theory might make the necessary experiments feasible. PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

62 Einstein's prediction (1907): Light bends in a gravitational field Einstein's theory of General Relativity makes several specific predictions about the observable structure of space-time, such as a prediction that light bends in a gravitational field and that the amount of bending depends in a precise way on the strength of that gravitational field.General Relativityspace-timelightgravitational field Arthur EddingtonArthur Eddington's observations made during a 1919 solar eclipse supported General Relativity rather than Newtonian gravitation.1919solar eclipse gravitation TEORI RELATIVITAS

63 Once predictions are made, they can be tested by experiments. If test results contradict predictions, then the hypotheses are called into question and explanations may be sought. Sometimes experiments are conducted incorrectly and are at fault. If the results confirm the predictions, then the hypotheses are considered likely to be correct but might still be wrong and are subject to further testing.further testing. Depending on the predictions, the experiments can have different shapes. It could be a classical experiment in a laboratory setting, a double-blind study or an archaeological excavation. Even taking a plane from New York to Paris is an experiment which tests the aerodynamical hypotheses used for constructing the plane. double-blindexcavationNew YorkParis aerodynamical EKSPERIMEN

64 Scientists assume an attitude of openness and accountability on the part of those conducting an experiment. Detailed record keeping is essential, to aid in recording and reporting on the experimental results, and providing evidence of the effectiveness and integrity of the procedure. They will also assist in reproducing the experimental results. This tradition can be seen in the work of Hipparchus (190 BCE BCE), when determining a value for the precession of the Earth over 2100 years ago, and 1000 years before Al-Batani.Hipparchus EKSPERIMEN

65 The essence of all good science lies in a process called "the scientific method." The scientific method uses objective experimentation to predict, verify, or refute, an assertion made by a theory. Based on the results of the experiment(s), the theory is modified. The process of predict, verify or refute is repeated, continually testing and modifying the theory until the theory fits all possible experimental observations. Then the theory is considered a scientific law. EKSPERIMEN The diagram above shows a simplified flow chart of the scientific method. One can "enter" the flow chart at any point in the cycle. Generally however, one starts with a theory, a prediction, or an observation. Diunduh dari: method.cfm ….. 22/9/2012

66 EKSPERIMEN Diunduh dari: method.cfm ….. 22/9/2012

67 A Theory is an explanation for natural events that is based on a large number of observations. Its important to realize that theories EXPLAIN what we observe. For instance, the Germ Theory explains why we get sick and why we get infections, in short it uses observation of viruses and bacteria as well as data from those who get ill to create a theory on what causes the illness. TEORI Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

68 And so you say, isn't that an absolute fact. Duh? We know there are germs and they make us sick. To a degree, some of what we know now (with increased technology) is more refined than what it was 100 years ago. Did you know that some doctors were laughed at for washing their was a ridiculous notion hundreds of years ago to believe that there were invisible things in the are that would make us sick. Now, we accept it as common knowledge. However, the germ theory continues to be refined as we expand our knowledge on what actual components and parts of a bacteria or virus make us sick and why. Theories are changeable and expandable, and most importantly, theories are FALSIFIABLE. TEORI Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

69 In order to be a valid scientific theory there must be some way that an observation or experiment could prove it to be false. For example, Einstein's theory of Relativity made predictions about the results of experiments. These experiments could have produced results that contradicted Einstein, so the theory was (and still is) falsifiable. In contrast, the theory that ``the moon is populated by little green men who can read our minds and will hide whenever anyone on Earth looks for them, and will flee into deep space whenever a spacecraft comes near'' is not falsifiable: these green men are designed so that no one can ever see them. TEORI Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

70 On the other hand, the theory that there are no little green men on the moon is scientific: you can disprove it by catching one. Similar arguments apply to abominable snow-persons, UFOs and the Loch Ness Monster(s?). The three important points of a scientific theory: 1.Theories must explain a wide range of observations 2.Theories must be falsifiable 3.Theories can be changed if new evidence presents itself TEORI Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

71 Scientific Process 1.Observations 2.Questions 3.Hypothesis (prediction) 4.Experimentation 5.Conclusions PROSES ILMIAH Diunduh dari: ….. 22/9/2012

72 Hypothesis - a testable statement, can be shown to be true or false by experimenting or observation. Contoh Hipotesis yang Baik 1. Plants will grow taller when given Miracle Grow. 2. Girls will score higher on math tests than boys. 3. Hermit crabs choose colorful shells over drab shells. Contoh Hipotesis yang Buruk: 1.Plants will grow better when given Miracle Grow. 2. Girls are smarter than boys. 3. Hermit crabs like colorful shells. HIPOPTESIS

73 Following the formation of a hypothesis, a research can then make a prediction. A prediction is an expected outcome. If the statement is true, then you would expect a certain result. A hypothesis is then tested by experimentation - a planned procedure designed to test the hypothesis. PREDIKSI

74 Testing and improvement The scientific process is iterative. At any stage it is possible that some consideration will lead the scientist to repeat an earlier part of the process. Failure to develop an interesting hypothesis may lead a scientist to re- define the subject they are considering. Failure of a hypothesis to produce interesting and testable predictions may lead to reconsideration of the hypothesis or of the definition of the subject. Failure of the experiment to produce interesting results may lead the scientist to reconsidering the experimental method, the hypothesis or the definition of the subject. EVALUASI & ITERASI

75 Other scientists may start their own research and enter the process at any stage. They might adopt the characterization and formulate their own hypothesis, or they might adopt the hypothesis and deduce their own predictions. Often the experiment is not done by the person who made the prediction and the characterization is based on experiments done by someone else. Published results of experiments can also serve as a hypothesis predicting their own reproducibility. EVALUASI & ITERASI

76 Science is a social enterprise, and scientific work tends to be accepted by the community when it has been confirmed. Crucially, experimental and theoretical results must be reproduced by others within the science community. Researchers have given their lives for this vision; Georg Wilhelm Richmann was killed by lightning (1753) when attempting to replicate the 1752 kite-flying experiment of Benjamin Franklin.Georg Wilhelm Richmannlightning1753Benjamin Franklin To protect against bad science and fraudulent data, government research granting agencies like NSF and science journals like Nature and Science have a policy that researchers must archive their data and methods so other researchers can access it, test the data and methods and build on the research that has gone before. KONFIRMASI

77 MODEL KLASIK The classical model of scientific inquiry derives from Aristotle, who distinguished the forms of approximate and exact reasoning, set out the threefold scheme of abductive, deductive, and inductive inference, and also treated the compound forms such as reasoning by analogy. Aristotle abductivedeductiveinductive analogy MODEL-MODEL SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY

78 Pragmatic model: Pragmatic theory of truthPragmatic theory of truth Charles PeirceCharles Peirce considered scientific inquiry to be a species of the genus inquiry, which he defined as any means of fixing belief, that is, any means of arriving at a settled opinion on a matter in question. He observed that inquiry in general begins with a state of uncertainty and moves toward a state of certainty, sufficient at least to terminate the inquiry for the time being. He graded the prevalent forms of inquiry according to their evident success in achieving their common objective, scoring scientific inquiry at the high end of this scale. MODEL PRAGMATIS

79 At the low end he placed what he called the method of tenacity, a die-hard attempt to deny uncertainty and fixate on a favored belief. Next in line he placed the method of authority, a determined attempt to conform to a chosen source of ready-made beliefs. After that he placed what might be called the method of congruity, also called the a priori, the dilettante, or the what is agreeable to reason method. MODEL PRAGMATIS

80 Peirce observed the fact of human nature that almost everybody uses almost all of these methods at one time or another, and that even scientists, being human, use the method of authority far more than they like to admit. But what recommends the specifically scientific method of inquiry above all others is the fact that it is deliberately designed to arrive at the ultimately most secure beliefs, upon which the most successful actions can be based. MODEL PRAGMATIS

81 Many subspecialties of applied logic and computer science, to name a few, artificial intelligence, machine learning, computational learning theory, inferential statistics, and knowledge representation, are concerned with setting out computational, logical, and statistical frameworks for the various types of inference involved in scientific inquiry, in particular, hypothesis formation, logical deduction, and empirical testing.applied logiccomputer scienceartificial intelligencemachine learningcomputational learning theoryinferential statisticsknowledge representationhypothesis formationlogical deduction empirical testing Some of these applications draw on measures of complexity from algorithmic information theory to guide the making of predictions from prior distributions of experience, for example, see the complexity measure called the speed prior from which a computable strategy for optimal inductive reasoning can be derived.measurescomplexity algorithmic information theorydistributionsspeed prior PENDEKATAN KOMPUTASIONAL

82 While the philosophy of science has limited direct impact on day-to-day scientific practice, it plays a vital role in justifying and defending the scientific approach. Philosophy of science looks at the underpinning logic of the scientific method, at what separates science from non- science,and the ethic that is implicit in science.philosophy of sciencescience from non- scienceethic We find ourselves in a world that is not directly understandable. We find that we sometimes disagree with others as to the facts of the things we see in the world around us, and we find that there are things in the world that are at odds with our present understanding.facts FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

83 The scientific method attempts to provide a way in which we can reach agreement and understanding. A "perfect" scientific method might work in such a way that rational application of the method would always result in agreement and understanding; a perfect method would arguably be algorithmic, and so not leave any room for rational agents to disagree. rationalalgorithmic As with all philosophical topics, the search has been neither straightforward nor simple.philosophical Logical PositivistLogical Positivist, empiricist, falsificationist, and other theories have claimed to give a definitive account of the logic of science, but each has in turn been criticized.empiricistfalsificationist FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

84 Thomas Samuel KuhnThomas Samuel Kuhn examined the history of science in his The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, and found that the actual method used by scientists differed dramatically from the then- espoused method.The Structure of Scientific Revolutions Paul FeyerabendPaul Feyerabend similarly examined the history of science, and was led to deny that science is genuinely a methodological process. In his book Against Method he argues that scientific progress is not the result of applying any particular method. In essence, he says that "anything goes", by which he meant that for any specific methodology or norm of science, successful science has been done in violation of it.Against Method FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

85 Criticisms such as his led to the strong programme, a radical approach to the sociology of science.strong programmesociology of science In his 1958 book, Personal Knowledge, chemist and philosopher Michael Polanyi ( ) criticized the common view that the scientific method is purely objective and generates objective knowledge. Polanyi cast this view as a misunderstanding of the scientific method and of the nature of scientific inquiry, generally. Michael Polanyi He argued that scientists do and must follow personal passions in appraising facts and in determining which scientific questions to investigate. He concluded that a structure of liberty is essential for the advancement of science - that the freedom to pursue science for its own sake is a prerequisite for the production of knowledge through peer review and the scientific method. FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

86 The postmodernist critiques of science have themselves been the subject of intense controversy and heated dialogue.postmodernist This ongoing debate, known as the science wars, is the result of the conflicting values and assumptions held by the postmodernist and realist wars postmodernistrealist Whereas postmodernists assert that scientific knowledge is simply another discourse and not representative of any form of fundamental truth, realists in the scientific community maintain that scientific knowledge does reveal real and fundamental truths about reality.postmodernistsrealists Many books have been written by scientists which take on this problem and challenge the assertions of the postmodernists while defending science as a legitimate method of deriving truthpostmodernists FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

87 Frequently the scientific method is not employed by a single person, but by several people cooperating directly or indirectly. Such cooperation can be regarded as one of the defining elements of a scientific community. Various techniques have been developed to ensure the integrity of the scientific method within such an environment. KOMUNIKASI, KOMUNITAS & BUDAYA

88 Scientific journals use a process of peer review, in which scientists' manuscripts are submitted by editors of scientific journals to (usually one to three) fellow (usually anonymous) scientists familiar with the field for evaluation.peer review The referees may or may not recommend publication, publication with suggested modifications, or, sometimes, publication in another journal. This serves to keep the scientific literature free of unscientific or crackpot work, helps to cut down on obvious errors, and generally otherwise improve the quality of the scientific literature. EVALUASI KELOMPOK PAKAR

89 Work announced in the popular press before going through this process is generally frowned upon. Sometimes peer review inhibits the circulation of unorthodox work, and at other times may be too permissive. The peer review process is not always successful, but has been very widely adopted by the scientific community. EVALUASI KELOMPOK PAKAR

90 Sometimes experimenters may make systematic errors during their experiments, unconsciously veer from the scientific method (Pathological science) for various reasons, or (in rare cases) deliberately falsify their results.Pathological science Consequently, it is a common practice for other scientists to attempt to repeat the experiments in order to duplicate the results, thus further validating the hypothesis. DOKUMENTASI & REPLIKASI

91 As a result, researchers are expected to practice scientific data archiving in compliance with the policies of government funding agencies and scientific journals.scientific data archiving Detailed records of their experimental procedures, raw data, statistical analyses and source code are preserved in order to provide evidence of the effectiveness and integrity of the procedure and assist in reproduction. reproduction These procedural records may also assist in the conception of new experiments to test the hypothesis, and may prove useful to engineers who might examine the potential practical applications of a discovery. PENG - ARSIP - AN

92 Note that it is not possible for a scientist to record everything that took place in an experiment. He must select the facts he believes to be relevant to the experiment and report them. This may lead, unavoidably, to problems later if some supposedly irrelevant feature is questioned. For example, Heinrich Hertz did not report the size of the room used to test Maxwell's equations, which later turned out to account for a small deviation in the results.Heinrich Hertz The problem is that parts of the theory itself need to be assumed in order to select and report the experimental conditions. The observations are hence sometimes described as being 'theory-laden'. KETERBATASAN

93 The primary constraints on contemporary western science are: 1. Publication, i.e. Peer reviewPeer review 2. Resources (mostly funding) It has not always been like this: in the old days of the "gentleman scientist" funding (and to a lesser extent publication) were far weaker constraints.gentleman scientist Both of these constraints indirectly bring in a scientific method — work that too obviously violates the constraints will be difficult to publish and difficult to get funded. DIMENSI PRAKTIS

94 Journals do not require submitted papers to conform to anything more specific than "good scientific practice" and this is mostly enforced by peer review. Originality, importance and interest are more important - see for example the author guidelines for guidelinesNature Criticisms (see Critical theory) of these restraints are that they are so nebulous in definition (e.g. "good scientific practice") and open to ideological, or even political, manipulation apart from a rigorous practice of a scientific method, that they often serve to censor rather than promote scientific discovery.Critical theory METODE ILMIAH

95 Perkembangan metode ilmiah tidak dapat dipisahkan dari sejarah ilmu pengetahuan. Dokumen-dokumen Mesir kuno, seperti “papyri”, menjelaskan metode-metode diagnosis medis.“papyri Dalam budaya Yunani kuno, dijelaskan tentang metode empirisme. The experimental scientific method was developed by Muslim scientists, who introduced the use of experiments to distinguish between competing scientific theories set within a generally empirical orientation, which emerged with Alhazen's optical experiments in his Book of Optics.Alhazenoptical SEJARAH METODE ILMIAH

96 The fundamental tenets of the modern scientific method crystallized no later than the rise of the modern physical sciences, in the 17th and 18th centuries. In his work Novum Organum (1620) — a reference to Aristotle's Organon — Francis Bacon outlined a new system of logic to improve upon the old philosophical process of syllogism.AristotleFrancis Bacon Then, in 1637, René Descartes established the framework for a scientific method's guiding principles in his treatise, Discourse on Method.René Descartes Karya tulis ini dianggap sangat kritis dalam sejartah perkembangan metode ilmiah. SEJARAH METODE ILMIAH

97 Pada akhikr abad 19, Charles Sanders Peirce mengusulkan suatu skema, yang sangat berpengaruh terhadap perkembangan metode ilmiah yang ada saat ini. Pertama, dalam konteks yang lebih luas "How to Make Our Ideas Clear" (1878), Peirce menjelaskan suatu metode yang dapat diverifikasi secara obyektif untuk menguji kebenaran pengetahuan dengan cara yang bertumpu pada DEDUKSI dan INDUKSI. He thus placed induction and deduction in a complementary rather than competitive context (the latter of which had been the primary trend at least since David Hume, who wrote in the mid- to-late 18th century).David Hume Sejarah METODE ILMIAH

98 Ke dua, Peirce meletakkan landasan untuk pengujian hipotesis yang masih berlaku terus hingga sekarang. Dengan mengekstraks teori tentang “inquiry” dari bahan-bahan mentahnya dalam logika klasik, ia menyempurnakannya sejalan dengan perkembangan awal dari logika simbolik untuk mengarahkan “problematik” pada penalaran ilmiah. Peirce menelaah dan mengartikulasikan tiga metode penalaran yaitu, inferensi abductive, deductive, dan inductive.abductivedeductive inductive Sejarah METODE ILMIAH

99 Ke tiga, Peirce memainkan peran utama dalam perkembangan logika simbolik - memang ini merupakan spesialisasinya yang utama. Karl PopperKarl Popper (1902–1994), mulai pada 1930 dan terus berkembang setelah Perang Dunia II, berpendapat bahwa suatu hipotesis harus “falsifiable” dan, sesuai dnegan Peirce dan pakar lainnya, bahwa pengetahuan berkembang dnegan baik dengan menggunakan penalaran deduktif sebagai tujuan utamanya, dikenal sebagai “critical rationalism”. His astute formulations of logical procedure helped to rein in excessive use of inductive speculation upon inductive speculation, and also strengthened the conceptual foundation for today's peer review procedures. Sejarah METODE ILMIAH

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