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PERENCANAAN AGREGAT Kuliah 3 LSiPro – FT Untirta Muhammad Adha Ilhami 3 rd Edition 2014 Muhammad Adha Ilhami.

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Presentasi berjudul: "PERENCANAAN AGREGAT Kuliah 3 LSiPro – FT Untirta Muhammad Adha Ilhami 3 rd Edition 2014 Muhammad Adha Ilhami."— Transcript presentasi:

1 PERENCANAAN AGREGAT Kuliah 3 LSiPro – FT Untirta Muhammad Adha Ilhami 3 rd Edition 2014 Muhammad Adha Ilhami

2 Tujuan Pembelajaran Mahasiswa mampu menggunakan teknik agregasi Mahasiswa mampu menyusun Master Production Schedule (MPS) atau Jadwal Induk Produksi (JIP). Muhammad Adha Ilhami

3 Pemahaman Dasar Bahwa aggregate plan (AP) merupakan tahap perencanaan awal dimana hasilnya adalah MPS (Top Level Production Plan) dan dilakukan oleh Top Level Business Plan. AP memperhatikan kapasitas dan kapabilitas perusahaan. Analisa AP dilakukan dalam kelompok produk (product family) dengan unit agregat. AP melibatkan pemilihan strategi manufaktur. AP berperan dalam sebagai interface antara perusahaan/sistem manufaktur dan pasar produknya. Muhammad Adha Ilhami

4 Company Top Level Plan Muhammad Adha Ilhami Alur informasi dalam AP. Data (input) dan Hasil (output) AP.

5 Planning Horizon Muhammad Adha Ilhami Aggregate planning: Perencanaan kapasitas jangka menengah, biasanya dilakukan untuk 2 sampai 12 bulan. AP prinsipnya menyesuaikan kapasitas dan permintaan Short range Intermediate range Long range Now2 months1 Year

6 Demarkasi Strategic & Tactical Plan Muhammad Adha Ilhami Strategic planning is the process of establishing corporate goals and objectives along with the plans to accomplish them. Tactical planning is the process selecting the methods of achieving organizational objectives.

7 Pertanyaan Dasar Muhammad Adha Ilhami 1.Dengan hasil peramalan yang ada, perusahaan akan menetapkan kapasitas (kemampuan produksi) perusahaan berapa dalam 1 tahun ke depan? 2.Bagaimana konsekuensi terhadap perusahaan? Pilihan penambahan tenaga kerja, mesin, jumlah shift dll? Demand = = < < > >

8 Overview of Planning Level Muhammad Adha Ilhami Short-range plans (Detailed plans) – Machine loading – Job assignments Intermediate plans (General levels) or medium-range (aggregate) plans – Employment – Output Long-range plans – Long term capacity – Location / layout – Product/Process design

9 Why Aggregate Plan? Muhammad Adha Ilhami Detil lebih sulit diperoleh untuk waktu yang lebih panjang Detil membawa banyak ketidakpastian: agregasi yang dilakukan ditujukan mengurangi variabilitas – Permintaan total pakaian lebih sedikit mengandung bias dibandingkan permintaan kaos, celana, dan kemeja. Jika terdapat variabilitas kenapa repot-repot membuat rencana detil, bagaimanapun juga input dapat berubah. – Buat rencana yang fleksibel – Fleksibilitas dan agregasi biasanya sejalan

10 Rencana Agregat Muhammad Adha Ilhami  Strategi perencanaan dalam tahapan Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi yang bermuara pada perencanaan kapasitas yang optimal.  Proses agregasi (aggregation) ialah pengelompokan beberapa jenis item menjadi product family.  Proses disagregasi (disaggregation) adalah proses derivasi product family menjadi item.

11 Istilah Berkaitan dengan Produk Muhammad Adha Ilhami Type: kelompok beberapa product families. Product family: kelompok beberapa items. Item: produk akhir individual yang dibeli (digunakan) oleh konsumen. Biasanya hirarki tersebut dimulai dari product family, karena bila sebuah pabrik membuat lebih dari satu jenis type maka operasi perusahaan itu akan menjadi sangat kompleks. Pengelompokan sejumlah item ke dalam sebuah product family dilakukan dengan teknik Group Technology (GT).

12 Satuan Agregat Muhammad Adha Ilhami Unit agregat yang biasa digunakan dalam proses agregasi :  Jam kerja buruh, mesin atau resource lainnya.  Waktu standar.  Harga jual, Ongkos produksi.  Satuan agregat dummy (pseudo product).

13 Aggregate plan units Muhammad Adha Ilhami At this level of planning, there is not a lot of detail. Individual end product identity is typically not present. Instead, planning is performed for a composite, or average unit of product in a particular family of similar products. For example, we may plan for units of hair dryers, without regard for whether they are 1500 watt dryers, 1600 watt dryers, 1875 watt dryers, travel dryers, etc. Decisions are typically aggregated into monthly time periods. Weekly or daily detail is not needed at this level of decision making. Those finer time breakdowns will be made at lower levels of decision making still to come.

14 Contoh Proses Agregasi Muhammad Adha Ilhami  IBM memproduksi komputer laptop, desktop, notebook dan mesin teknologi tinggi lainnya. Proses agregasi adalah pengelompokkan jenis – jenis komputer tersebut ke dalam family product (misalnya famili komputer).  Sebuah rumah sakit bisa melakukan agregasi jasa yang diberikan menjadi jumlah perawat atau dokter yang dibutuhkan.  PT. Telkomsel bisa melakukan agregasi jumlah unit penjualan kartu prabayar (kartu simpati) dan kartu pascabayar (kartu hallo) menjadi jumlah rupiah penjualan yang diterima. Kartu hallo juga terdiri dari beberapa item.

15 Prinsip Aggregate Plan Muhammad Adha Ilhami Aggregate planning: General plan – Combined products = aggregate product Short and long sleeve shirts = shirt – Single product – Pooled capacities = aggregated capacity Dedicated machine and general machine = machine – Single capacity – Time periods = time buckets Consider all the demand and production of a given month together – Quite a few time buckets – When does the demand or production take place in a time bucket?

16 Aggregate Plan Input Muhammad Adha Ilhami Sumber daya – Tenaga Kerja – Fasilitas Ramalan Permintaan Statemen Kebijakan Perusahaan – Subkontrak – Overtime – Tingkat Persediaan – Back order Biaya-biaya – Biaya inventori – Biaya back order – Biaya Hiring/firing – Biaya Overtime – Biaya subkontrak

17 Aggregate Plan Output Muhammad Adha Ilhami Biaya total Perusahaan Projected levels of inventory – Inventory – Output – Employment – Subcontracting – Backordering

18 Strategi Umum AP Muhammad Adha Ilhami Proactive – Mengubah demand menyamai kapasitas. Reactive – Mengubah kapasitas menyamai permintaan. Mixed – Gabungan proaktif dan reaktif

19 NATURE OF THE AGGREGATE PLANNING PROBLEM Muhammad Adha Ilhami Time 1 year Demand Forecast Regular (or Normal) Capacity Limit Units of “Aggregate” Product

20 AGGREGATE PLANNING STRATEGIES Muhammad Adha Ilhami Aggregate Planning Strategies Operations OrientedMarketing Oriented Leveling strategy Chase strategy Shifting demand Counter seasonal products

21 Operation Oriented Muhammad Adha Ilhami Strategi untuk mengatasi demand yang berfluktuasi dikategorikan sebagai strategi berorientasi operasi atau berorientasi market/pasar. Leveling strategy: Maintain output at a constant (level) rate throughout the planning horizon. Accommodate seasonal variations in demand through the accumulation and depletion of inventories. Chase strategy: Vary the output rate to match the seasonal variations in demand. Output rate can be varied by (1) hiring and firing workers, (2) utilizing overtime and idle time, or (3) subcontracting. Hybrid strategy: A cost effective aggregate plan may require the use of a combination of the pure strategies listed above. Such a plan is referred to as a hybrid plan.

22 Marketing Oriented Muhammad Adha Ilhami Strategi/taktik marketing berhubungan dengan demand siklis. Ilustrasi : Biasanya produksi tertentu (tetap) namun jika demand berada di bawah produksi, maka marketing harus diandalkan sehingga demand setara dengan produksi.

23 Alur Proses Pengolahan Data – Peramalan – Rencana Agregat Muhammad Adha Ilhami ItemFamily Data Data Produk A Data Produk B Data Produk C Peramalan Family Perancangan Agregat Family Disagregasi MPS Agregasi Data Data family A Data family B Data family C Peramalan Family Peramalan Family Peramalan Family Perancangan Agregat Family Perancangan Agregat Family Perancangan Agregat Family Disagregasi MPS Agregasi

24 Contoh Hasil Peramalan Permintaan (Dalam agregat) Muhammad Adha Ilhami Month JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC Demand Forecast Additional Data Hiring cost: $200 per worker hired Firing cost: $100 per worker fired Regular pay: $5000 per worker per month Overtime pay: 1.5 times regular pay Inventory carrying cost: $10 per unit (based on end of month balances) Backorder cost: $20 per unit (based on end of month shortage) Productivity: 10 units per worker per month (this has also been scaled down from what was originally expressed in thousands of units per month) Beginning workforce size: 20 workers (available at the beginning of January) Beginning inventory: 0 units (no inventory available at the beginning of January)

25 LEVEL STRATEGY WITH INVENTORY AND BACKORDERS Total annual demand = 2,400 units. Average monthly production needed = 2,400 units/12 months = 200 units per month. Current work force size is 20 workers. This is just enough (because productivity = 10 units per worker per month). Muhammad Adha Ilhami MonthJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC Demand Forecast Production200 Beginning Inv Ending Inv Carrying Cost Backorder Cost Regular Labor Cost100,000 Overtime Cost Total Inventory Carrying Cost:$7,000 Total Backorder Cost:$9,800 Total Hiring Cost0 Total Firing Cost0 Total Regular Payroll Cost:$1,200,000 Total Overtime Payroll Cost:0 Total Annual Cost:$1,216,800

26 LEVEL STRATEGY WITH SUBCONTRACT Total annual demand = 2,400 units. Average monthly production needed = 2,400 units/12 months = 200 units per month. Current work force size is 20 workers. This is just enough (because productivity = 10 units per worker per month). Subcontract fee is $30 per unit. Muhammad Adha Ilhami MonthJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC Demand Forecast Production200 Beginning Inv Ending Inv Carrying Cost Subcontract Cost Regular Labor Cost100,000 Overtime Cost Total Inventory Carrying Cost:$18,100 Total Subcontract Cost:$4,500 Total Hiring Cost0 Total Firing Cost0 Total Regular Payroll Cost:$1,200,000 Total Overtime Payroll Cost:0 Total Annual Cost:$1,222,600

27 CHASE STRATEGY WITH HIRING AND FIRING Total annual demand = 2,400 units. Average monthly production needed = 2,400 units/12 months = 200 units per month. Current work force size is 20 workers. This is just enough (because productivity = 10 units per worker per month). Muhammad Adha Ilhami Month JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC Demand Forecast Workers Needed Number Hired Number Fired Hiring Cost1,0002,0003, ,4002,0002,600 Firing Cost1,0001,5002,0001,5001,800 Labor Cost50,00075,000125,000200,000125,00025,00045,00080,000130,000195,000120,00030,000 Overtime Cost Total Inventory Carrying Cost: 0 Total Backorder Cost: 0 Total Hiring Cost $12,800 Total Firing Cost $7,800 Total Regular Payroll Cost: $1,200,000 Total Overtime Payroll Cost: 0 Total Annual Cost: $1,220,600

28 CHASE STRATEGY WITH OVERTIME AND IDLE TIME Total annual demand = 2,400 units. Average monthly production needed = 2,400 units/12 months = 200 units per month. Current work force size is 20 workers. This is just enough (because productivity = 10 units per worker per month). Muhammad Adha Ilhami Month JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC Demand Forecast Capacity *20 Capacity Needed * Overtime * Idle Time * Regular Labor Cost100,000 Overtime Cost37,500150,00037,50045,000142,50030,000 Total Inventory Carrying Cost: 0 Total Backorder Cost: 0 Total Hiring Cost 0 Total Firing Cost 0 Total Regular Payroll Cost: $1,200,000 Total Overtime Payroll Cost: $442,500 Total Annual Cost: $1,642,500

29 Pilih Yang Mana? Muhammad Adha Ilhami Total Inventory Carrying Cost: $7,000 Total Backorder Cost: $9,800 Total Hiring Cost 0 Total Firing Cost 0 Total Regular Payroll Cost: $1,200,000 Total Overtime Payroll Cost: 0 Total Annual Cost: $1,216,800 Total Inventory Carrying Cost: 0 Total Backorder Cost: 0 Total Hiring Cost $12,800 Total Firing Cost $7,800 Total Regular Payroll Cost: $1,200,000 Total Overtime Payroll Cost: 0 Total Annual Cost: $1,220,600 Total Inventory Carrying Cost: 0 Total Backorder Cost: 0 Total Hiring Cost 0 Total Firing Cost 0 Total Regular Payroll Cost: $1,200,000 Total Overtime Payroll Cost: $442,500 Total Annual Cost: $1,642,500 Apa Konsekwensinya? Level Inventory & Backorder Chase Fired & Hired Chase Overtime & Idletime Total Inventory Carrying Cost: $7,000 Total Backorder Cost: $14,200 Total Hiring Cost 0 Total Firing Cost 0 Total Regular Payroll Cost: $1,200,000 Total Overtime Payroll Cost: 0 Total Annual Cost: $1,221,200 Level Subcontract

30 Linear Programming Muhammad Adha Ilhami Keterangan: r : ongkos produksi per unit reg time P: jumlah unit yang diproduksi reg time h: ongkos kenaikan per unit produk A t : jumlah unit kenaikan produksi f: ongkos penurunan per unit produk R t : jumlah unit penurunan produksi v: ongkos produksi per unit overtime O t : jumlah unit diproduksi overtime c: ongkos inventori per unit


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