Pertemuan 10: Manajemen Resiko

Outline Definisi Proses dalam manajemen resiko

Definisi Resiko : kejadian atau kondisi tidak pasti yang bisa mempengaruhi suatu poryek Tidak semua resiko negatif  kesempatan Tujuan dari manajemen resiko : meminimalisir resiko negatif dan memaksimalkan kesempatan yang mungkin terjadi Ketika suatu resiko benar-benar terjadi dalam proyek, penanganannya : Menghindari Mengurangi dampak Transfer Menerima

Proses dalam manajemen resiko Planning Risk management planning Risk management process Risk identification – RBS Qualitative risk analysis – probabilitas & akibat Quantitative risk analysis – nilai numerik terhadap probabilitas dan akibat Monitoring & controlling Risk response planning

Planning Bagaimana menangani dan merencanakan kegiatan pengelolaan resiko Input Enterprise environmental factor Organizational process asset Project scope statement Project management plan Tool Planning meeting & analysis Output Risk management plan

Risk management plan Berisi tentang: Kategori resiko – untuk mengelompokkan resiko RBS – mirip dengan WBS, tetapi dipergunakan untuk identifikasi dan kategorisasi resiko Akibat yang ditimbulkan resiko Kemungkinan kemunculan resiko

RBS

Risk identification Input Tool Output Enterprise environmental factor Organizational process asset Project scope statement Project management plan Risk management plan Tool Documentation review Information gathering techniques (brainstorming, interview, delphi technique, SWOT analysis, root cause identification) Checklist analysis Assumption analysis Diagramming techniques Output Risk register

Risk register No Identified risk Potential response Root cause

Qualitative risk analysis Tujuan utama : Meranking resiko – seberapa mungkin bisa terjadi dan seberapa besar dampak terhadap proyek (cost, quality, scope) Input : Organizational process asset Risk register Risk management plan Project scope statement Tools Risk probability & impact assessment Probability & impact matrix – untuk menemukan prioritas Risk data quality assessment Risk categorization Risk urgency assessment Output Updated risk register

Updated risk register No Identified risk Potential response Root cause Category Priority Urgency

Quantitative risk analysis Input : Organizational process assets Updated risk register Risk management plan Project management plan Project scope statement Tools : Gathering information : Interview Probability distribution Expert judgement Lesson learned

Output : Analisa : Updated risk register Sensitivity analysis – tornado diagrams Expected monetary value analysis Modelling & distribution – monte carlo analysis Output : Updated risk register

Risk response planning Apa yang akan kita lakukan ketika resiko terjadi Input : Updated risk register Risk management plan Tools Negative risk – mitigate, avoid, transfer, accept Positive risk – exploit, share, enhance, accept Output Updated contract Updated management plan

Updated risk register No Identified risk Potential response Root cause Risk owner Category Priority Urgency

Risk monitoring & control Input : Risk management plan Risk register WPI Performance report Approved change request Tools : Status meeting Risk reassessment Risk audit Variance and trend analysis

Output : Technical performance measurement Reserve analysis Updated risk register Requested changes Recommended corrective/preventive action Updated organizational process assets Updated project mgmt plan