5 Perekonomian Terbuka Chapter 5 extends the analysis to a small open economy. This PowerPoint presentation contains a slide explaining why the U.S. is often called “the world’s largest debtor nation.” This material will help motivate the rest of the chapter: First, students learn exactly what trade surpluses and trade deficits are. Next, students learn the link between the trade balance and net capital outflow or net lending to/borrowing from abroad. Finally, students see a new time series graph on the U.S. trade deficit, and get the latest available numbers on U.S. net indebtedness to the rest of the world. This data begs the question: how did it come to this? why has the U.S. had such huge trade deficits? what can the government do about this? These are among the many topical questions that students will better understand as they study this chapter. NOTE: If you are planning on covering chapter 12 (Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy), then covering this chapter is highly recommended.

Dalam bab ini, Anda akan belajar ... identitas akuntansi untuk perekonomian terbuka model perekonomian terbuka kecil apa yang membuatnya "kecil" bagaimana neraca perdagangan dan nilai tukar ditentukan bagaimana kebijakan mempengaruhi neraca perdagangan & nilai tukar BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Rasio perdagangan-PDB, negara yang dipilih, 2004 (Impor Ekspor +) sebagai persentase dari PDB Luksemburg 275,5% Irlandia 150,9 Republik Ceko 143.0 Hongaria 134,5 Austria 97,1 Swiss 85.1 Swedia 83,8 Republik Korea 83,7 Polandia 80,0 Kanada 73.1 Jerman 71,1% Turki 63,6 Mexico 61,2 Spanyol 55,6 Inggris 53,8 Prancis 51,7 Italia 50,0 Australia 39,6 Amerika Serikat 25,4 Jepang 24,4 This data shows the degree of “openness” (measured by the trade-to-GDP ratio) of selected OECD countries. Despite the huge absolute value of U.S. trade, most of the other countries shown have higher trade-GDP ratios. Source: OECD.org BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Dalam perekonomian terbuka, belanja tidak perlu keluaran sama menghemat kebutuhan investasi tidak sama Regarding “spending need not equal output”: Residents of an open economy can spend more than the country’s output simply by importing foreign goods. Residents can spend less than output, and the extra output will be exported. Regarding “saving need not equal investment”: If individuals in an open economy want to save more than domestic firms want to borrow, no problem. The savers simply send their extra funds abroad to buy foreign assets. Similarly, if domestic firms want to borrow more than individuals are willing to save, then the firms simply borrow from abroad (i.e. sell bonds to foreigners). BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Persiapan EX = Ekspor = belanja asing pada barang-barang domestik superscripts: d = Pengeluaran untuk barang-barang domestik f = Pengeluaran untuk barang-barang asing EX = Ekspor = belanja asing pada barang-barang domestik SAYA M = Impor = C f +Aku f +G f = Pengeluaran untuk barang-barang asing NX = Ekspor bersih (a.k.a. "keseimbangan perdagangan") = EX - SAYA M Before displaying the second and subsequent lines, explain the first one: Total consumption expenditure is the sum of consumer spending on domestically produced goods and foreign produced goods. EX: The value of the goods we export to other countries equals their expenditure on our output. IM: The value of our imports equals the portion of our country’s expenditure (the portion of C+I+G) that falls on foreign products. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

PDB = pengeluaran diproduksi di dalam negeri g & s A country’s GDP is total expenditure on its output of final goods & services. The first line adds up all sources of spending on domestically produced goods & services. The second & subsequent lines present an algebraic derivation of the national income accounting identity for an open economy. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Identitas pendapatan nasional dalam perekonomian terbuka Y = C + Aku + G + NX atau, NX =Y - (C +Aku + G ) keluaran pengeluaran domestik ekspor bersih Solving this identity for NX yields the second equation, which says: A country’s net exports---its net outflow of goods---equals the difference between its output and its expenditure. Example: If we produce $500b worth of goods, and only buy $400b worth, then we export the remainder. Of course, NX can be a negative number, which would occur if our spending exceeds our income/output. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Surplus perdagangan dan defisit NX = EX -SAYA M = Y - (C +Aku + G) Surplus perdagangan: Output> pengeluaran dan ekspor> impor Ukuran surplus perdagangan = NX Defisit perdagangan: belanja> output dan impor> ekspor Ukuran defisit perdagangan = -NX BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Ekspor bersih AS, 1950-2006 After learning the terms trade surplus and trade deficit on the preceding slides, we see here that the U.S. has had trade deficits since the early 1980s. In the early 1990s, the trade deficit shrunk relative to GDP, but since then it’s become huge. The next slides show the link between the trade balance and capital flows. Students will see that the huge trade deficits on this slide have caused the U.S. to become the world’s largest debtor nation (and will learn exactly what that means). source: FRED Database, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

Modal internasional mengalir Arus modal keluar neto =S - Aku =outflow bersih "dana pinjaman" =pembelian bersih aset asing pembelian negara aset asing dikurangi pembelian asing dari aset domestik Kapan S > Aku, Negara adalah pemberi pinjaman bersih Kapan S < Aku, Negara adalah peminjam bersih In chapter 3, we examined a closed economy model of the loanable funds market. Savers could only lend money to domestic borrowers. Firms borrowing to finance their investment could only borrow from domestic savers. Thus, S = I. But in an open economy, S need not equal I. A country’s supply of loanable funds can be used to finance domestic investment, or to finance foreign investment (e.g. buying bonds from a foreign company that needs funding to build a new factory in its country). Similarly, domestic firms can finance their investment projects by borrowing loanable funds from domestic savers or by borrowing them from foreign savers. International borrowing and lending is called “international capital flows” even though it’s not the physical capital that is flowing abroad --- we don’t see factories uprooted and shipped to Mexico (Ross Perot’s famous remark notwithstanding). Rather, what can flow internationally is “loanable funds,” or financial capital, which of course is used to finance the purchase of physical capital. Note: foreign investment might involve the purchase of financial assets – stocks and bonds and so forth – or physical assets, such as direct ownership in office buildings or factories. In either case, a person in one country ends up owning part of the capital stock of another country. The equation “net capital outflow = S – I” shows that, if a country’s savers supply more funds than its firms wish to borrow for investment, the excess of loanable funds will flow abroad in the form of net capital outflow (the purchase of foreign assets). Alternatively, if firms wish to borrow more than domestic savers wish to lend, then the firms borrow the excess on international financial markets; in this case, there’s a net inflow of loanable funds, and S < I. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Hubungan antara perdagangan & topi. mengalir NX =Y - (C +Aku +G) menyiratkan NX = (Y -C -G) - Aku = S - Aku neraca perdagangan = arus modal keluar neto Starting from the equation derived on slides 6 and 7, we can derive another important identity: NX = S – I This equation says that Net exports (the net outflow of goods) = net capital outflow (the net outflow of loanable funds) While the identity and its derivation are very simple, we learn a very important lesson from it: A country (such as the U.S.) with persistent, large trade deficits (NX < 0) also has low saving, relative to its investment, and is a net borrower of assets. Dengan demikian, sebuah negara dengan defisit perdagangan (NX < 0) adalah peminjam bersih (S < Aku). BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

"Dunia debitur bangsa terbesar" AS telah memiliki defisit perdagangan yang besar, menjadi peminjam bersih setiap tahun sejak awal 1980-an. Pada 2005/12/31: Warga AS yang dimiliki $ 10,0 triliun aset asing Asing yang dimiliki $ 12700000000000 senilai US aset Hutang bersih AS ke seluruh dunia: 2700000000000 $ - lebih tinggi dari negara lain, maka AS adalah "negara pengutang terbesar dunia" Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov Look for “International Investment Position” under “International” or “International Economic Accounts” The U.S.’ net indebtedness to the rest of the world (henceforth NIROW) is $2.7 trillion as of the end of 2005. The U.S. NIROW is bigger than any other country’s NIROW, which is why the U.S. has earned the dubious distinction of being “the world’s largest debtor nation.” Servicing this huge debt, of course, uses up some of our GDP each year (though fortunately relatively little). How did it get to this point? Why do we have such huge trade deficits year after year? How do government policies affect the trade deficit? These are the questions your students will learn about in the rest of this chapter. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Tabungan dan investasi dalam perekonomian terbuka kecil Versi open-ekonomi dari model dana pinjaman dari Bab 3. Mencakup banyak elemen yang sama: fungsi produksi fungsi konsumsi fungsi investasi variabel kebijakan eksogen BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Tabungan nasional: Pasokan dana pinjaman r S, I Seperti dalam Bab 3, tabungan nasional tidak tergantung pada tingkat bunga BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Asumsi re: mengalir Modal Sebuah. obligasi domestik & asing adalah pengganti sempurna (risiko yang sama, jatuh tempo, dll.) b. mobilitas modal sempurna: tidak ada pembatasan pada perdagangan internasional dalam aset c. ekonomi adalah kecil: tidak dapat mempengaruhi tingkat bunga dunia, dinotasikan r* This slide is the first on which students see a foreign variable, in this case, the foreign interest rate r*. In general, a star or asterisk “*” on a variable denotes the foreign or world version of that variable. Thus, Y* = foreign GDP, P* = foreign price level, etc. The assumption that domestic & foreign bonds are perfect substitutes is implicit in the text, but necessary for the equality of the domestic and foreign interest rate. Students will realize that assumption a is unrealistic, and c is unrealistic for the U.S. (as well as Japan and the Euro zone). However, these assumptions keep our model simple, and we can still learn a LOT about how the world works (just as the model of supply and demand in perfectly competitive markets is often not realistic, yet teaches us a great deal about how the world works). At the end of the chapter, there’s a brief section discussing how the results we are about to derive differ in a large open economy. And you may wish to have your students read the appendix to chapter 5, which presents a formal model of the large open economy. a & b menyiratkan r = r * c menyiratkan r * adalah eksogen BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Investasi: Permintaan untuk dana pinjaman Investasi masih fungsi miring ke bawah dari suku bunga, r S, I Aku (r ) tapi eksogen yang tingkat bunga dunia ... r * ... Menentukan tingkat negara dari investasi. Aku (r * ) BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Jika perekonomian ditutup ... S, I ... Suku bunga akan menyesuaikan diri menyamakan investasi dan menyimpan: Aku (r ) rc BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Tapi dalam perekonomian terbuka kecil ... S, I tingkat bunga dunia eksogen menentukan investasi ... Aku (r ) NX r * Aku 1 ... Dan perbedaan antara tabungan dan investasi menentukan arus modal keluar neto dan ekspor bersih rc This graph really determines net capital outflow, not NX. But, the national accounting identities say that NX = net capital outflow, so we write “NX” on the graph as shown. A little bit later in the chapter, we will see that it is the adjustment of the exchange rate that ensures that NX = net capital outflow. For now, though, students will just have to trust the accounting identities. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Berikutnya, tiga percobaan: Kebijakan fiskal 1. di rumah 2. Kebijakan Fiskal luar negeri 3. Peningkatan permintaan investasi In the textbook, NX = 0 in the economy’s initial equilibrium for each of these three experiments. In these slides, NX > 0 in the initial equilibrium. For completeness, you might have your students repeat the three experiments for the case of NX < 0 in the initial equilibrium. This would be a good homework or in-class exercise. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

1.Kebijakan fiskal di rumah S, I Peningkatan G atau penurunan T mengurangi tabungan. Aku (r ) NX2 Aku 1 NX1 Hasil: In a small open economy, the fixed world interest rate pins down the value of investment, regardless of fiscal policy changes. Thus, a $1 decrease in saving causes a $1 decrease in NX and net capital outflow. Note that the analysis on this slide applies to ANYTHING that causes a decrease in saving. Other examples: a shift in consumer preferences regarding the tradeoff between saving and consumption, or a change in the tax laws that reduces the incentive to save. Our model generates a prediction: the government’s budget deficit and the country’s trade balance should be negatively related. Does this prediction come true in the real world? Let’s look at the data…. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

NX dan defisit anggaran federal (% Dari PDB), 1960-2006 4% 8% Defisit anggaran (skala kanan) 6% 2% 4% 0% 2% -2% 0% Our model implies a negative relationship between NX and the budget deficit. We observe this negative relationship during most periods. Exceptions: 1. Late 1970s. 2. 1991-2001. In the latter period, the U.S. enjoyed an unusually long expansion, which fueled a surge in both imports and tax revenues. Source: Department of Commerce. Obtained from: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Ekspor bersih (kiri skala) -4% -2% -6% -4% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 meluncur 20

2.Kebijakan fiskal luar negeri S, I Aku (r ) Kebijakan fiskal ekspansif ke luar negeri meningkatkan tingkat bunga dunia. NX2 NX1 Hasil: It might be worth taking a moment to explain that the world interest rate r* is determined by saving and investment in the world loanable funds market. S* is the sum of all countries’ saving; I* the sum of all countries’ investment. r* adjusts to equate I* with S*, just like in Chapter 3, because the world as a whole is a closed economy. A fiscal expansion in other countries would reduce S* and raise r* (same results as in chapter 3). The higher world interest rate reduces investment in our small open economy, and hence reduces the demand for loanable funds. The supply of loanable funds (national saving) is unchanged, so there’s an increase in the amount of funds flowing abroad. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

3. Peningkatan permintaan investasi Aku (r )1 Aku 1 NX1 OLAHRAGA: Gunakan model untuk menentukan dampak dari kenaikan permintaan investasi pada NX.S.Aku, Dan arus modal keluar neto. Have students get out a piece of paper, draw this graph on it, and then do the analysis. A couple minutes should suffice. It might be useful to have them compare their answers with the results from the closed economy case. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

3. Peningkatan permintaan investasi Aku (r )2 Aku (r )1 NX2 JAWABAN: Aku > 0, S = 0, arus modal keluar neto dan NX jatuh oleh jumlah Aku Aku 1 NX1 Aku 2 In contrast to a closed economy, investment is not constrained by the fixed (domestic) supply of loanable funds. Hence, the increase in firm’s demand for loanable funds can be satisfied by borrowing abroad, which reduces net outflow of financial capital. And since net capital outflow = NX, we see a fall in NX equal to the increase in investment. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Kurs nominal e= Nilai tukar nominal, harga relatif mata uang domestik dalam hal mata uang asing (misalnya Yen per Dollar) Warning to students: Some textbooks and newspapers define the exchange rate as the reciprocal of the one here (e.g., dollars per yen instead of yen per dollar). The one here is easier to use, because a rise in “e” corresponds to an “appreciation” of the country’s currency. Using the reciprocal would mean that a rise in “e” is a depreciation, which seems counter-intuitive. So it would be worthwhile to point out to students that a country’s “e” is simply the price (measured in foreign currency) of a unit of that country’s currency. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Beberapa nilai tukar, pada 7/14/06 negara kurs Euro 0,79 Euro / $ Indonesia 9105 Rupiah / $ Jepang 116,3 Yen / $ Mexico 11,0 Peso / $ Rusia 27.0 Rubel / $ Afrika Selatan 7.2 Rand / $ U.K. 0.54 Pounds / $ If you’d like to update these figures before your lecture, you can find good exchange rate data at: http://www.xe.net/ict/ BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

huruf Yunani huruf kecil epsilon Nilai tukar riil = Nilai tukar riil, harga relatif barang-barang domestik dalam hal barang-barang asing (misalnya Jepang Big Mac per AS Big Mac) ε huruf Yunani huruf kecil epsilon BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Memahami unit ε ε BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka Students often have trouble understanding the units of the real exchange rate. It’s worth explaining each line carefully, and making sure students understand it before displaying the next line. Note: The examples here and in the text are in terms of one good, i.e. Big Macs. But P and P* are the overall price levels of the domestic & foreign countries. Thus, they each measure the price of a basket of goods. When you get to the bottom line, emphasize that the real exchange rate measures the amount of purchasing power in Japan that must be sacrificed for each unit of purchasing power in the U.S. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

~ ~ McZample ε bagus: Big Mac Harga di Jepang: P * = 200 Yen Harga di Amerika Serikat: P = $ 2,50 Nilai tukar nominal e = 120 Yen / $ Untuk membeli AS Big Mac, seseorang dari Jepang harus membayar jumlah yang bisa membeli 1,5 Mac Big Jepang. ε BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka meluncur 28

ε di dunia nyata & model kami Di dunia nyata: Kami bisa memikirkan ε sebagai harga relatif sekeranjang barang-barang domestik dalam hal sekeranjang barang asing Dalam model makro kami: Hanya ada satu yang baik, "output." Jadi ε adalah harga relatif dari satu output negara dalam hal output negara lain A good candidate for the basket of goods mentioned here is the CPI basket. Perhaps a better candidate would be a basket including all goods & services that comprise GDP. Then, the real exchange rate would measure how many units of foreign GDP trade for one unit of domestic GDP. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Bagaimana NX tergantung pada ε ε  Barang AS menjadi lebih mahal dibandingkan dengan barang-barang asing  EX, SAYA M  NX BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Ekspor bersih AS dan nilai tukar riil, 1973-2006 3% Indeks nilai tukar riil perdagangan-tertimbang 140 2% 120 1% 100 0% -1% (Maret 1973 = 100) 80 (% Dari PDB) -2% 60 -3% NX The real exchange rate here is a broad index. Source: Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.10, Board of Governors. (To find it, simply google “Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.10”) NX as a percent of GDP was computed from NX and GDP source data from Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, obtained at: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ -4% Ekspor bersih (kiri skala) 40 Indeks -5% 20 -6% -7% 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

NX = NX(ε ) Ekspor neto fungsi The ekspor bersih fungsi mencerminkan ini hubungan terbalik antara NX dan ε : NX = NX(ε ) BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

The NX kurva untuk AS ε ε1 sehingga ekspor bersih AS akan tinggi NX ε NX (ε) NX(ε1) sehingga ekspor bersih AS akan tinggi ε1 Kapan ε relatif rendah, Barang AS relatif murah BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

The NX kurva untuk AS ε2 Pada nilai cukup tinggi ε. Barang AS menjadi begitu mahal yang NX ε NX (ε) NX(ε2) kita ekspor kurang dari kita mengimpor BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Bagaimana ε ditentukan Identitas akuntansi mengatakan NX = S - Aku Kami melihat sebelumnya bagaimana S - Aku adalah ditentukan: S tergantung pada faktor-faktor domestik (output, variabel kebijakan fiskal, dll) Aku ditentukan oleh bunga dunia laju r * Jadi, ε harus menyesuaikan untuk memastikan In the equation, ε is the only endogenous variable, hence this equation determines the value of ε. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Bagaimana ε ditentukan Juga tidak S maupun Aku bergantung pada ε. sehingga net kurva arus modal keluar vertikal. ε NX NX(ε ) ε 1 ε menyesuaikan menyamakan NX dengan arus modal keluar neto, S - Aku. *** Note *** At the lower left corner (origin) of this graph, NX does NOT NECESSARILY EQUAL ZERO!!! NX 1 BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Interpretasi: Pasokan dan permintaan di pasar valuta asing Asing perlu dolar untuk membeli ekspor neto AS. ε NX NX(ε ) pasokan: Arus modal keluar neto (S - Aku ) adalah pasokan dolar untuk diinvestasikan di luar negeri. ε 1 WARNING: Don’t let your students confuse the demand for dollars in the foreign exchange market with demand for real money balances (chapter 4), or the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market with the supply of money (chapter 4). If you and your students are into details: NX is actually the net demand for dollars: foreign demand for dollars to purchase our exports minus our supply of dollars to purchase imports. Net capital outflow is the net supply of dollars: The supply of dollars from U.S. residents investing abroad minus the demand for dollars from foreigners buying U.S. assets. NX 1 BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Berikutnya, empat percobaan: Kebijakan fiskal 1. di rumah 2. Kebijakan Fiskal luar negeri 3. Peningkatan permintaan investasi 4. Kebijakan Perdagangan untuk membatasi impor BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

1. Kebijakan fiskal di rumah Ekspansi fiskal mengurangi tabungan nasional, arus modal keluar neto, dan pasokan dolar di pasar valuta asing ... NX 2 ε 2 ε NX NX(ε ) ε 1 NX 1 ...menyebabkan kurs riil meningkat dan NX jatuh. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

2. Kebijakan fiskal luar negeri Peningkatan r * mengurangi investasi, peningkatan arus modal keluar neto dan pasokan dolar di pasar valuta asing ... ε NX NX(ε ) NX 1 ε 1 ε 2 NX 2 ...menyebabkan kurs riil jatuh dan NX naik. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

3. Peningkatan permintaan investasi Peningkatan investasi mengurangi arus modal keluar neto dan pasokan dolar di pasar valuta asing ... NX 2 ε 2 ε NX NX 1 NX(ε ) ε 1 Suggestion: Have your students do this experiment as an in-class exercise. Have them take out a piece of paper, draw the graph, then show what happens when there’s an increase in the country’s investment demand (perhaps in response to an investment tax credit). ...menyebabkan kurs riil meningkat dan NX jatuh. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

4. Kebijakan perdagangan untuk membatasi impor Pada setiap nilai yang diberikan dari ε, Kuota impor  SAYA M  NX  permintaan untuk dolar bergeser tepat ε NX NX (ε )1 NX1 ε 1 NX (ε )2 ε 2 Doesn kebijakan perdagangan't mempengaruhi S atau Aku , Sehingga arus modal dan pasokan dolar tetap tetap. The analysis here applies for import restrictions (tariffs, quotas) as well as export subsidies. It also applies for exogenous changes in preferences regarding domestic vs. foreign goods. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

4. Kebijakan perdagangan untuk membatasi impor Hasil: ε > 0 (permintaan kenaikan) NX = 0 (supply tetap) SAYA M <0 (kebijakan) EX <0 (kenaikan ε ) ε NX NX1 NX (ε )2 NX (ε )1 ε 2 ε 1 In the text box, the remarks in parentheses after each result are an abbreviated explanation for that result. The real exchange rate appreciates because the quota has raised the net demand for dollars associated with any given value of the exchange rate. But the equilibrium level of net exports doesn’t change, because the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market (S-I) has not been affected by the trade policy. (Remember, S = Y-C-G, and the trade policy does not affect Y, C, or G; the policy also does not affect I, because I = I(r*) and r* is exogenous.) The appreciation causes exports to fall. And, since exports are lower but NX is unchanged, it must be the case that IM is lower too, which is what you’d expect from a trade policy that restricts imports. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Determinan dari Nilai tukar nominal Mulailah dengan ekspresi untuk nilai tukar riil: Memecahkan kurs nominal: BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Determinan dari Nilai tukar nominal Jadi e tergantung pada kurs riil dan tingkat harga di rumah dan di luar negeri ... ... Dan kita tahu bagaimana setiap dari mereka ditentukan: It’s important here for students to learn the (logical, not necessarily chronological) order in which the variables are determined. I.e., what causes what. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Determinan dari Nilai tukar nominal Menulis ulang persamaan ini dalam tingkat pertumbuhan (melihat "trik aritmatika untuk bekerja dengan perubahan persentase," Chap 2 ): Here we again see the Classical Dichotomy in action. The real exchange rate is determined by real factors, and nominal variables only affect nominal variables. Suppose the U.S. is the home country and Mexico is the foreign (starred) country, and suppose that Mexico’s inflation rate (pi*) is higher than that of the U.S. This equation implies: the greater is Mexico’s inflation relative to the U.S., the faster the dollar should rise relative to the peso. The next slide presents cross-country data consistent with this implication. Untuk nilai tertentu ε. tingkat pertumbuhan e sama dengan perbedaan antara tingkat inflasi asing dan domestik. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Perbedaan inflasi dan nilai tukar nominal Mexico Islandia Singapura Afrika Selatan Kanada Figure 5-13 on p.141. The horizontal axis measures the country’s inflation rate minus the U.S. inflation rate. The vertical axis measures the percentage change in the U.S. dollar exchange rate with that country. All variables are annual averages over the period 1972-2004. This figure shows a very clear relationship between the inflation differential and the rate of dollar appreciation. The higher a country’s inflation relative to U.S. inflation, the faster the U.S. dollar will appreciate against that country’s currency. Or, for the few countries like Japan that have lower inflation than the U.S., we see the U.S. exchange rate depreciating relative to those countries’ currencies. Source: International Financial Statistics Korea Selatan U.K. Jepang BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Dua definisi: Sebuah doktrin yang menyatakan bahwa barang harus menjual dengan harga yang sama (mata uang-disesuaikan) di semua negara. Kurs nominal menyesuaikan untuk menyamakan biaya sekeranjang barang di seluruh negara. Penalaran: arbitrase, hukum satu harga BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) PPP: eP = P* Biaya keranjang barang asing, dalam mata uang asing. Biaya keranjang barang dalam negeri, dalam mata uang asing. Biaya keranjang barang dalam negeri, dalam mata uang domestik. Memecahkan e:e = P* / P PPP menyiratkan bahwa kurs nominal antara dua negara sama dengan rasio tingkat harga negara '. PPP implies that the cost of a basket of goods (even a basket with just one good, like a Big Mac or a latte) should be the same across countries. e P = the foreign-currency cost of a basket of goods in the U.S., while P* the cost of a basket of foreign goods. PPP implies that the baskets cost the same in both countries: eP = P*, which implies that e = P*/P. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Jika e = P */P. kemudian dan NX kurva adalah horisontal: ε NX ε = 1 S - Aku Di bawah PPP, perubahan (S- Aku) Tidak berdampak pada ε atau e. Revisiting our model, PPP implies that the NX curve should be horizontal at  = 1. Intuition for the horizontal NX curve: Under PPP, different countries’ goods are perfect substitutes, and international arbitrage is possible. If the relative price of U.S. goods falls even a tiny bit below 1, then there’s a profit opportunity: buy U.S. goods and sell them abroad. Hence, the tiniest drop in the U.S. real exchange rate causes a massive increase in NX. Similarly, if the relative price of U.S. goods rises even a tiny amount above 1, then it is profitable to buy foreign goods and sell them in the U.S., so this arbitrage causes a massive increase increase in imports---and decrease in NX. Thus, under PPP, the real exchange rate equals 1 regardless of net capital outflow S-I. Changes in S or I have no impact on the real exchange rate. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Apakah PPP terus dalam dunia nyata? Tidak, karena dua alasan: 1. Arbitrase internasional tidak mungkin. barang tidak diperdagangkan biaya transportasi 2. Barang negara yang berbeda 'tidak pengganti sempurna. Meskipun demikian, PPP adalah teori yang berguna: Ini sederhana & intuitif Dalam dunia nyata, nilai tukar nominal cenderung ke arah nilai-nilai PPP mereka dalam jangka panjang. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

STUDI KASUS: Defisit Reagan revisited perekonomian tertutup perekonomian terbuka kecil perubahan yang sebenarnya ε NX Aku r S G - T 1980 1970 115,1 -0.3 19,9 1.1 19,6 2.2 129,4 -2,0 19.4 6.3 17,4 3.9   tidak ada perubahan     tidak ada perubahan This is a continuation of the case study begun in Chapter 3 (both the textbook and the PowerPoint presentation). It is placed here to motivate the last topic of Chapter 5: the U.S. as a large open economy. As we saw in chapter 3, the closed economy model correctly predicted that national saving would fall and the interest rate would rise. But, the closed economy model predicted that investment would fall as much as saving; actually, investment fell by much less than saving. Also, the closed economy model by definition could not have predicted the effects on the trade balance or exchange rate. The small open economy model correctly predicted what would happen to NX and the real exchange rate, but incorrectly predicted that the interest rate and investment would not change. In order to explain the U.S. experience, we need to combine the insights of the closed & small open economy models. Rata-rata dekade;: Data semua kecuali r dan ε dinyatakan sebagai persen dari PDB; ε adalah indeks perdagangan-tertimbang. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

AS sebagai perekonomian terbuka besar Sejauh ini, kami telah belajar jangka panjang model untuk dua kasus ekstrim: perekonomian tertutup (chap. 3) perekonomian terbuka kecil (chap. 5) Sebuah perekonomian terbuka besar - seperti AS - jatuh antara dua ekstrem. Hasil dari analisis perekonomian terbuka besar adalah campuran dari hasil untuk tertutup & kecil kasus perekonomian terbuka. Sebagai contoh… BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Ekspansi fiskal dalam tiga model Ekspansi fiskal menyebabkan tabungan nasional turun. Efek ini tergantung pada keterbukaan & ukuran: NX Aku r terbuka besar ekonomi perekonomian terbuka kecil perekonomian tertutup naik naik, tapi tidak sebanyak seperti dalam perekonomian tertutup tidak perubahan air terjun jatuh, tetapi tidak sebanyak seperti dalam perekonomian tertutup tidak perubahan In the table, there’s a cell for NX in the closed economy column. Instead of putting “N.A.” in this cell, I put “no change.” Why? In a closed economy, EX = IM = NX = 0. After a change in saving, NX = 0 still. Hence, it is not incorrect to say “no change”. More importantly we are trying to show students how the results for a large open economy are in between the results for the closed & small open cases. Looking at the items in the last row of the table, “falls, but not as much as in small open economy” seems to be in between “no change” and “falls,” but does not seem to be in between “N.A.” and “falls”. It would be completely understandable if you still feel that “N.A.” should be in the closed economy NX cell of the table, so please feel free to edit that cell. tidak perubahan jatuh, tetapi tidak sebanyak dalam perekonomian terbuka kecil air terjun BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka

Bab Ringkasan Ekspor bersih - perbedaan antara ekspor dan impor keluaran suatu negara (Y) dan pengeluarannya (C + Aku + G) Equals arus modal keluar neto pembelian aset asing dikurangi pembelian asing dari aset negara perbedaan antara tabungan dan investasi BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka meluncur 55

Bab Ringkasan Pendapatan nasional identitas: Dampak kebijakan NX : Y = C + Aku + G+NX neraca perdagangan NX =S- Aku arus modal keluar neto Dampak kebijakan NX : NX meningkat jika penyebab kebijakan S naik atau Aku jatuh NX tidak berubah jika kebijakan mempengaruhi juga tidak S maupun Aku. Contoh: kebijakan perdagangan BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka meluncur 56

Bab Ringkasan Nilai tukar nominal: harga mata uang suatu negara dalam hal mata uang negara lain nyata: harga barang suatu negara dalam hal barang negara lain Nilai tukar riil sama dengan kali tingkat nominal rasio harga dari kedua negara. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka meluncur 57

Bab Ringkasan Bagaimana nilai tukar riil ditentukan NX tergantung negatif pada nilai tukar riil, hal-hal lain yang sama Kurs riil menyesuaikan menyamakan NX dengan arus modal keluar neto BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka meluncur 58

Bab Ringkasan Bagaimana kurs nominal ditentukan e sama dengan kali nilai tukar riil tingkat harga di negara itu relatif terhadap tingkat harga luar negeri. Untuk nilai yang diberikan nilai tukar riil, perubahan persentase dalam kurs nominal sama dengan perbedaan antara tingkat inflasi asing & domestik. BAB 5 Perekonomian Terbuka meluncur 59