PROGRAM EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT) Ismu Kusumanto Jurusan Teknik Elektro UIN Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau
FORMULASI te : weighted average activity time a : optimistic activity time b : pessimistic activity time m : most likely activity time
FORMULASI TE : critical path duration Ts : scheduled project duration Z : probability
Berapa probabilitas proyek selesai dalam 67 hari ? EXAMPLE Berapa probabilitas proyek selesai dalam 67 hari ? Activity a m b te A 17 29 47 B 6 12 24 C 16 19 28 D 13 E 2 5 14 F 8
ANSWER Activity a m b te A 17 29 47 30 B 6 12 24 13 C 16 19 28 20 D E 5 14 F 8
ANSWER Activity a m b te A 17 29 47 30 25 B 6 12 24 13 9 C 16 19 28 20 D 1 E 2 5 14 F 8
ANSWER 43 3 D 30 B 59 64 A 13 16 F 1 2 5 6 30 5 E C 56 20 6 4 TE = 64
ANSWER Probabilitas proyek selesai dalam 67 hari adalah : P = 0.69
Tabel Probabilitas Z Value Probabilitas - 2.0 0.02 2.0 0.98 - 1.5 0.07 0.93 - 1.0 0.16 1.0 0.84 - 0.7 0.24 0.7 0.76 - 0.5 0.31 0.5 0.69 - 0.3 0.38 0.3 0.62 - 0.1 0.36 0.1 0.54
Berapa probabilitas proyek selesai dalam 55 hari ? LATIHAN Berapa probabilitas proyek selesai dalam 55 hari ? Activity Prodc a m b te A None 12 15 20 B 6 10 14 C 19 25 D 5 E B,C 2 8 F D,E 4 9
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