INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHISICS BMKG CURRENT WARNING SYSTEMS: CHALLENGES, PRESSURE, AND CONCERNS Muylono R. Prabowo INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHISICS Macao, 15 April 2013

MAIN PROGRAM OF BMKG Ina-TEWS Ina-MCEWS BMKG Inspectorate Dep. 3 SUBSTANTIVE PROGRAM Ina-MCEWS Ina-TEWS Dep. 1&2 Telecommunication Instr.&Calibration TECHNICAL PROGRAM Dep. 4 Database Dissemination R&D SUPPORTING PROGRAM Educ&Traning Supporrting.Fac. DG&Ex.Sec.

OPERATIONAL OF METEOROLOGY AT BMKG Model Prediction PC International Data Exchange Upper Air Observation Radar Ocean Observation Space-based Surface Observation Observations Data Collection Products Warnings Advisories TC Forecast Weather Forecast One Week Forecast Aeronautical Met. Information Marine Met. Information Analysis, Forecast, Services Information Issuance Issuance of Products at Met. Sta and HQ Collection and Dissemination of Meteorological Data Computer System for Meteorological Services

BMKG’S METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND USERS PRODUCTS : PRODUCTS : Public Weather Services USERS : - Daily Weather Forecast Extreme weather warning Ministry of Transport Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Health Ministry of Defense Disaster Management Agency (Nat’l & Regional) Tourisms Marine stakeholders Fisheries Public works/construction Bulog Mass Media Universities Research Institutions - Aerodrome forecast Flight-Route forecast SIGMET Aeronautical Weather Services - Max & Significant Wave & Swell forecast - Surface current - 10-meter wind forecast Marine Weather Services Fax, Email, Web, Telp. & SMS Fire Weather (FDRS) Hotspot/Firespot Fire Weather Index - Smoke dispersion/ Trajectory Tropical Cyclone - TC Track forecast - TC’s Impacted Area forecast 2nd Asia/Oceania Met Sat User Conference 2011 4

DISSEMINATION OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PUBLIC ROUTINE PRODUCT National Level: NDMA Natnl.SAR Police Min. Transportation Min. Public Work Mass Media … National Scale Forecast - Daily Weather Forecast - Three day Weather Outlook Potential of Flood (Daily) - Potential of Forest Fire (Daily) - Max&Sig. Wave Forecast - Information of Tropical Cyclone BMKG HO WEB E-MAIL TELP FAX Provincial Level: PDMA SAR Offices Prv. Police Port Admn. Prv. Public Work Mass Media … Provincial Scale Forecast - Daily Weather Forecast - Three day Weather Outlook Potential of Flood (Daily) - Max&Sig. Wave Forecast BMKG REG.OFF. National Level: Min.Coord.Walfare NDMA PDMA Crisis Centre DKI Army/ Police Mass Media … EARLY WARNING PRODUCT BMKG HO Early Warning of Extreme Weather S M S Provincial Level: Gavernors Mayors Army/ Police Mass Media … BMKG REG.OFF.

DISSEMINATION OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PUBLIC Phone Services Faximile BMKG’s STATIONS TV Station Public Area Weather Display Email Website Social Media

MULTI MODE OF INFORMATION DISSEMINATION BMKG MIN. COMM. & INFO NDMA LOCAL AUTORITIES MASS MEDIA INTERNET CELL. OPERATOR POLRI SIRINE 2303/ BMKG HO PEOPLE / USERS

AKSES LAYANAN INFORMASI CUACA DAN PERINGATAN DINI CUACA EKSTRIM BMKG AKSES LAYANAN INFORMASI CUACA DAN PERINGATAN DINI CUACA EKSTRIM Telepon: 021-6546315 / 08111107264 Website: http://www.bmkg.go.id Email: infomet2000@gmail.com ; cuaca.ekstrim@bmkg.go.id

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PUBLIC BMKG PRODUCTS OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PUBLIC

PRODUCTS OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PUBLIC No PRODUCT Frequency of Issuance 1 6 Hourly Weather Forecast 4 times/day 2 12 Hourly Weather Forecast 2 times/day 3 Daily Weather Forecast 1 times/day 4 3 Daily Weather Outlook 2 times/week 5 Weekly Weather Outlook 4 times/month 6 Weather Information for Tourist Resorts 7 Specific Weather Information for commercial purpose (e.g insurance) On request 8 Specific Weather Information for other Government Institutions 9 Forest fire Weather Information 10 Early Warning of Significant Weather If applicable 10

JAKARTA WEATHER FORECAST (DAILY)

PROVINCE WEATHER FORECAST (DAILY)

JAKARTA WEATHER FORECAST (DAILY)

THREE DAYS WEATHER OUTLOOK (TWO TIMES/WEEK)

ONE WEEK WEATHER OUTLOOK (TWO TIMES/WEEK)

POTENTIAL OF FOREST FIRE (DAILY)

POTENTIAL OF FLOOD FORECAST (DAILY)

12 HOURS WEATHER FORECAST (TWICE A DAY) Prakiraan Curah Hujan Peluang Hujan Sedang : Sumatera bagian utara Beberapa tempat di Pesisir Barat Sumatera bagian selatan Kalimantan bagian barat dan tengah Sulawesi bagian utara dan tengah Maluku bagian utara dan tengah Papua bagian barat dan tengah Bali dan NTB Jawa bagian tengah dan timur Tanggal 13 April 2013 jam 07.00 WIB Peluang Hujan Lebat Beberapa tempat di Sumatera bagian utara Beberapa tempat Sulawesi bagian tengah Beberapa tempat di Maluku bagian utara dan tengah Beberapa tempat di Papua bagian tengah Beberapa tempat di Bali dan NTB Beberapa tempat di Jawa bagian tengah dan timur BMKG Peluang Hujan Ringan : Sumatera bagian utara dan selatan Pesisir Barat Sumatera bagian selatan Pesisir Timur Sumatera bagian tengah dan selatan Kalimantan bagian barat, tengah dan selatan Sebagian besar Sulawesi Sebagian besar Maluku Papua bagian barat, utara dan tengah Bali dan Nusa Tenggara Sebagian besar Jawa PRAKIRAAN CUACA DAN ANGIN INDONESIA BERLAKU 13 APRIL 2013 PUKUL 07.00 - 19.00 WIB Prakiraan Angin Tanggal 13 April 2013 jam 07.00 WIB Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Kecepatan angin ≥ 15 knot (≥ 27 km/jam) : Samudera Hindia sebelah Barat Sumatera hingga Selatan NTT Laut Andaman Laut Cina Selatan Samudra Pasifik Timur Filipina Angin di wilayah Indonesia secara umum bertiup dari arah Tenggara – Barat Daya, kecuali wilayah Sulawesi bagian Tengah, Tenggara dan Selatan, Bali dan Nusa Tenggara serta Jawa bagian Tengah dan Timur dari Timur Laut – Timur dengan kecepatan angin umumnya berkisar antara 05 – 15 knots (09 – 27 km/jam). 12 HOURS WEATHER FORECAST (TWICE A DAY)

(SEVEN DAYS IN ADVANCE) WINDWAVE FORECAST (SEVEN DAYS IN ADVANCE)

CHALLENGES, PRESSURE, AND CHALLENGES BMKG CHALLENGES, PRESSURE, AND CHALLENGES

GEOGRAPHICAL CONDITION BMKG GEOGRAPHICAL CONDITION Tropical Area, Warm and humid 70% area is water, Sea-land interaction Ring of fire, Earthquake and volcanoes Scale of disaster Temporal and spatial scales

Observation Network

Map of Seismisity

Statistic of Disaster in Indonesia

DISASTER WARNING CALENDER AND PREPAREDNESS DISASTER/ TRIGER WARNING DOCUMENT PERIODE OF OCCURANCE (NORMAL) WARNING By BMKG PREP. TIME Flood/ Heavy Rainfall Map of Potential of Flood (3 Months in advence) DEC – JAN – FEB OCTOBER NOVEMBER Landslide/ Heavy Rainfall Map of Potential of Landslide (Agency of Geology–ESDM) Mini Twister/ Heavy Wind Map of Cloud (Cb) distribution from Weather Radar (2 hours in advance) – BMKG AUGUST – SEPT JULY High Wave/ Heavy Wind Map of Potential of High Wave (7 days in advance) Forest Fire/ Drought (Less rainfall) Map of Potential of Forest Fire (2 days in advance) MAR – AUGUST MAR – MEY MAR – JUN Earthquake (Tectonic) Location and magnitude of earthquake ALL YEAR LONG Earthquake (Vulcanic) Tsunami Information of Potential of Tsunami BMKG BMKG BMKG

INTERNAL FACTOR Observation Network, Data completeness, BMKG INTERNAL FACTOR Observation Network, Data completeness, Human Resources, Technology, Communication, Model/Accuracy, Timeliness, Research areas, Funding

EXTERNAL FACTOR Providers, Available through internet, BMKG EXTERNAL FACTOR Providers, Available through internet, Various user needs, Public understanding, Low enforcement, Cooperation, Evaluation, Accessibility

THANK YOU ... AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS (BMKG) JL. ANGKASA I NO. 2 KEMAYORAN JAKARTA PUSAT – INDONESIA 10720 TEL: +6221-4246321, +6221-6546315 (WEATHER) , +6221-6546316 (EARTHQUAKE) FAX.: +6221-4246703 http://www.bmkg.go.id

AREA RESPONSIBILITY OF JAKARTA - TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER

Citra Satelit Cuaca 23 April 2008 – 07.00 WIB Badai Tropis “DURGA” Badai Tropis “ROSIE”

Badai Tropis “DURGA” DAMPAK BADAI ”DURGA” TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA : Potensi hujan sedang - lebat dan angin kencang (kec. 36 km/jam) di sekitar Pesisir Barat Sumatera bagian Selatan dan Pesisir Selatan Jawa bagian Barat.

JAKARTA WEATHER FORECAST (DAILY)

PROVINCIAL WEATHER FORECAST (DAILY)

CAPITAL CITIES WEATHER FORECAST (DAILY)

THREE DAYS WEATHER OUTLOOK (TWO TIMES/WEEK)

ONE WEEK WEATHER OUTLOOK (TWICE A WEEK)