MATERI 6 PERILAKU ORGANISASI MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING

2 JENIS PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN MANAJERIAL INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKING Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial yang dilakukan oleh Seorang Manajer. GROUP DECISION MAKING Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial yang dilakukan oleh suatu kelompok atau level manajemen.

JENIS MASALAH KEPUTUSAN Masalah Keputusan Terstruktur (Structured Problem) - Algoritma Pemecahan Sudah Jelas Masalah Keputusan Tidak Terstruktur (Unstructured Problem) - Algoritma Pemecahan Tidak Jelas.

LEVEL MANAJEMEN & MASALAH KEPUTUSAN TOP : Mostly Unstructured Problem MIDDLE : Balance LOWER : Mostly Structured Problem

KARAKTERISTIK KEPUTUSAN EFFEKTIF Quality of the Decision Acceptance of the Decision Ethical Justness of the Decision

PROSES PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN (BAZERMAN) Define The Problem Criteria Identification Criteria Weighting Alternative Generation Rating each Alternative Computing the Optimal Decision

PROSES PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN (H.SIMON) Intelligent Design Choice Implementation

RATIONAL DECISION MAKING Perfectly Defining the Problem Identifying All Criteria Accurately Weighting All Criteria Knowing All Relevant Alternatives Accurately Assessing each Alternatives on each Criteria Accurately Choosing The Highest

BOUNDED RATIONALITY Lack of Information Time and Cost Constraints Perception Biases Limitation of Usable Memory Intelligent Constraints in Calculating

JUDGMENT DALAM KEPUTUSAN MANAJERIAL THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTICS Ketersediaan Informasi dalam memori THE REPRESENTATIVENESS HEURISTICS Kesamaan Masalah ANCHORING & ADJUSTMENT HEURISTICS

BIAS PENGGUNAAN AVAILABILY HEURISTICS Informasi yang mudah diingat kembali Informasi yang mudah dicari Korelasi Maya (Illusory Correlation)

BIAS PENGGUNAAN REPRESENTATIVENESS H. Tidak sensitif terhadap kemungkinan suatu hasil (outcomes) Tidak sensitif terhadap ukuran sample Miskonsepsi tentang “Chance” Regresi ke Arah Rata-rata

BIAS PENGGUNAAN ANCHORING& ADJUSTMENT Adjustment yang tidak memadai Overconfidence Hubungan yang keliru Konfirmasi yang Menjebak

STRATEGIES FOR MANAGER Warning about the possibility of bias Describing the direction of the bias Providing a dose of feedback Offering extended program of training to improve judgment.

ESKALASI NON RASIONAL Eskalasi : Bertahan, “ngotot” Ada 2 Macam : The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm Bertahan pada satu keputusan yang keliru, karena masih yakin benar The Competitive Escalation Paradigm Bertahan pada satu keputusan yang keliru karena tidak mau kalah.

SEBAB-SEBAB ESKALASI NON RASIONAL Perceptual Biases Judgmental Biases External Management : “Safe Face” Competitive Irrationality

STRATEGIES FOR MANAGER Set limit on your involvement and commitment in advance. Avoid looking to other people to see what you should do. Actively determine why you are continuing. Remind your self of the cost involved

PERTIMBANGAN GROUP DECISION MAKING Type of Problem or task Acceptance of Decision Characteristics of Individuals Climate of the Decision Making Amount of time available

BENTUK GROUP DECISION MAKING BRAINSTORMING / SYNECTICS NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE DELPHI TECHNIQUE CONSENSUS MAPPING

KEUNGGULAN GROUP DECISION MAKING Multiple Knowledge & Skills Expedites Acceptance Generally Higher Quality Decision Increase Commitment

KELEMAHAN GROUP DECISION MAKING More Time Ignore Individual Expertise Satisfices Encourages Riskier Decision Create Groupthink

SYMPTOMS OF GROUPTHINK Stereotypes Pressure Self-Censorship Mindguards