Sumberdaya Alam dan Aspek Sosial Pusat Penelitian Geografi Terapan Universitas Indonesia Triarko Nurlambang

Sumber Daya Alam Renewable (dapat diperbaharui) - siklus perbaharuan : udara, tanaman - ciptakan substitusi: bahan bakar - re-cycle (daur ulang): air Non-renewable - Depletion/deplesi (berkurangnya deposit) - Perlu waktu lama untuk pembentukan ulang (skala waktu geologi)  contohnya adalah minyak (bahan bio) atau bahan mineral

Daya Dukung Sumberdaya Alam Sustainability Competitiveness Untuk TUJUAN APA ? Sustainability Competitiveness

A simple way of understanding Indonesia Society Economy Hundreds of ethnic groups Unbalanced geodemographic distribution (less densed pop. in eastern) Dominated by muslim (concentrated in western and center) Economic/business activities concentraed more in Western part Western part has better infrastructure and business support Western part is closer to international business center (Singapore-Malaysia and East Asia) Big gap between urban and rural economy Idealism: United in Diversity based on Pacasila (?) Scaterred Resources (tangibles and intangibles) Confusing Laws central vs local by sector Environment Biodiversity; second richest in the world (land + sea) Heavy exploitation in western rather than eastern

Kegiatan Manusia dan Pemanfaatan Sumberdaya Alam selalu berubah Apalagi yang akan datang ? Hidup dari lingkungan terkonvergnsi Perdagangan regional baru Berburu dan bertani Tata dunia baru (metanasional) Export/ import globalisasi Berdagang / transaksi benda berharga (uang) Berdagang / barter Jaman imperialisme………….... Imperialisme gaya baru

Long Wave Cycles of Innovation Water power Textiles Iron Steam Rail Steel Electricity Chemicals Internal-combustion engine Petrochemicals Electronics Aviation Digital networks Software New Media Pace of innovation 1st Wave 2nd Wave 3rd Wave 4th Wave 5th Wave Source: Adapted from the Economist, Feb 20th 1999. 1785 60 years 1845 55 years 1900 50 years 1950 40 years 1990 30 years

Sectors of the Economy Percent of Workforce Time Tertiary Secondary Quaternary Primary Time

Dynamic spatial models tp + 10 Forecast tp - 20 tp - 10 tp calibration fonte: Almeida et al (2003)

Perkembangan kota/daerah

Combination of Expansion and Relocation Contoh Aplikasi berbasis Time-Space Convergence (spatial diffusion) t3 t3 t2 t2 t1 t1 Expansion Diffusion Relocation Diffusion Combination of Expansion and Relocation

MODEL INTERAKSI MANUSIA DAN LINGKUNGAN HIDUP environment Impact on people Human Activity ECONOMY resources PEOPLE Waste, pollution, and dissipative use Ecosystem Encroachment Ecosystem services

Tekanan terhadap Ekosistem Human subsystem Environmental subsystem Environmental compartment Economic subsystem Pollution Goods & services labor PRESSURE impacts STATE impacts Resource Depletion Population subsystem Ecosystem Natural Feedbacks RESPONSE Societal Response Human System Feedback

Modal alam dan buatan manusia Semakin Pentingnya Social Capital dan Human Capital Budaya (non-Formal) Kesejahteraan Pasar Kelembagaan Legal (formal) Alokasi sumber daya Persepsi Masyarakat (Human Capital) Social Capital Modal alam dan buatan manusia

Konsep Sustainability

(Carrying Capacity Root) Ecological Dimension (Carrying Capacity Root) Eco-development root Biosphere root No-growth/ slow-slow growth root Resource / environment root Ecological / Carrying Capacity Root Critique of technology root

Thomas Malthus Karl Marx

Malthus and Marx Today Neo-Malthusians - Believe we are approaching, or have already surpassed, the earth’s carrying capacity. - We should make over-population issues our first priority. Neo-Marxists - Believe eliminating oppression and poverty through social justice is the only solution to the population problem. - Wealth and resource distribution must be addressed.

Ecologist Paul Ehrlich argues the American lifestyle is driving the global ecosystem to the brink of collapse. Economist Julian Simon argued human ingenuity, not resources, limits economic growth and lifestyles.

Future Growth: Developing Countries Developing country urban urban rural rural

Component of a Development Dynamic

Conventional Subdivision versus Cluster Housing (Open-Space Zoning) Quality of environment but not waste, food production Both plans provide 36 home sites.

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Sistem Dalam Pembangunan Spasial This area is devoted to the study of whole systems. Nature is a whole system. But also an economy, a family, a company, a community, or many other things, can be looked at as whole systems. A whole system view would include all the factors involved and examine how they relate to each other and how they work as a whole. To deal with a whole system we can't leave anything out as irrelevant. Intuition is as important as rationality, we must address both scientific and artistic approaches, both material and spiritual needs, the small as well as the big, what we feel as well as what we think, what we perceive as well as what we imagine. Whole systems are dynamic, they change they move, they develop. Frozen pictures of how things are supposed to be might do us no good, we need to deal with the live systems, whichever surprising directions that might take us in. There is no one authority in the field of whole systems. Luckily nobody has monopolized it by putting it into a standard curriculum defining what it IS. So, we all have the opportunity to discover together what whole systems are about.

Sistem Mahluk Hidup

Sistem Perkotaan

"Lingkaran Setan" Pembangunan ..... dan Kita Menghadapi "Lingkaran Setan" Pembangunan Jika menggunakan pendekatan regional maka akan dilihat lebih holistik /komprehensif dan sistemik; prioritas nya adalah kebutuhan stakeholder Jika menggunakan pendekatan sektoral maka sulit menentukan prioritas Pengangguran REGION “A” Pertmbhn eko. rendah Tabungan terbatas Sedikit input modern Ouput pertanian kecil Kurang modal Daya beli rendah Keluarga besar Laju kelahiran tinggi Produktifitas rendah Diet jelek Pendapatan/kapita rendah Permintaan tenga kerja tinggi Kesehatan buruk Kurang gizi Kemiskinan Kondisi hidup tak sehat Output/ pekerja kurang Pendidikan kurang Perumahan tak layak

Pembangunan Berkelanjutan dan pentingnya membangun Sosial-Budaya

"Sustainable Development Problems" (Unsustainability) Environmental degradation and resource depletion Critical trend Increasing Income disparity Poverty and Marginalization Population size and growth Economic volume and pattern Technological choice Proximate trend Governance Environmental quality Values, desires and aspirations Structure of Power Knowledge and Understanding Ultimate trend Long Term Ecological Processes Human Needs A New Dichotomy: Economic vs Ecological Sustainable Where are we? Is growth sustainable? Where to? Paranoia to Partnership

Gross Domestic Product and the Environment Some Economists and their stupid accounting tricks 1) Standard Business Practice Machines and Buildings etc. counted as assets As they deteriorate (are used up) they are depreciated and this depreciation is called a loss. 2) Standard National Accounting Practice Call sales of Oil, Timber, & Water: profits Ignore the loss of natural resources as losses Call housing starts economic growth Ignore loss of housing from flood, fire, earthquakes

An Oil Spill in Mexico Good for the Economy? You betcha. Where best: U.S., Mexico, or Ecuador?

A wildfire in Laguna Beach Do you think these people are hoping their homes will burn down To help boost the local economy?

3 Main area of SD (Sustainable Development) perspectives Human Rights Peace and human security Gender equality Cultural diversity & intercultural understanding Health HIV/AIDS Governance Economic: the production of goods and services Social : the maintenance and enhancement of the quality of life Environmental: the conservation and prudent management of natural resources SOCIAL Perspectives Natural resources (water, energy, agriculture, biodiversity) Climate Change Rural Development Sustainable urbanization Disaster prevention and mitigation Poverty reduction Corporate responsibility and accountability Market economy Sustainable Development ECONOMIC Perspectives ENVIRONMENTAL Perspectives Sustainable Development: Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (“Our Common Future”, the World Commission on Environment and Development, 1997)

Road Map Permasalahan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan di Indonesia Titik Nadir Pembangunan Berkelanjutan (in-active) Masa yang akan datang ? Sebelum reformasi Masa awal reformasi Sosial Zona Optimal Pembangunan Berkelanjutan Sosial Ekonomi LH Sosial “Bend the Curve” Skenario Optimis Ekonomi LH Skenario Moderat Ekonomi LH Titik Nadir Pembangunan NKRI (over-exploitation) Skenario Pesimis Ditandai oleh: Utamakan kepentingan Pemb. Ekonomi Pemerintahan Otoriter Ditandai oleh: UU Otonomi Daerah Eksploitasi SDA utk PAD Lebih memperhatikan: Pembangunan berkelanjutan Modal sosial/ budaya GCG/ value driven

Contoh Kasus Setelah Bencana Gempa dan Tsunami Aceh

CEPP (Critical Environmental Pressure Points) Model Exercise Sum of CA Index CA Dev 2 Index CA Dev 1 Index End users / consumers Dev. Aspect Infrastructures Main Dev. Aspect Dev. Aspect Livelihood Class. 1 Water Supply Road Housing forestry fishery agriculture cement seed Water installation storage Class. 2 Houses wood fertilizer Rice field (extension) Street iron irrigation store sand Sand mining Hutan gudang Rice field Housing allocation Commercial Area Pelabuhan CA/SEA Jalan lingkungan sungai CA: Daerah Aliran Sungai Area SEA: Strategic Environmental Assessment Jalan kabupaten irigasi Jalan propinsi

CEPP Role in relation to Understanding Dev CEPP Role in relation to Understanding Dev. Stages by considering Alert System (Critical Pressure) Development activities Level of NAD/ Nias Development Index based on CEPP model SPATIAL APPROACH Not-suitable for continuing development Development in Crisis condition  Major development actions need to stopped / freeze Domestic activities Critical development condition  it needs special treatment Level of NAD/ Nias Development Index based on CEPP model Critical Environmental pressure points (CEPP) threshold threshold Suitable for continuing development Level of NAD/ Nias Development Index based on CEPP model Safe development condition  it needs to be maintained well T

Mental Model (generic) Pembangunan dan Lingkungan Hidup Pembangunan rumah Pembangunan jalan Tn Logical Framework ASPEK PEMBANGUNAN ASPEK LINGKUNGAN EKOLOGI NON EKOLOGI Tanah/Lahan Udara Air Ekonomi Sosial Politik INFRASTRUKTUR SARANA Perumahan Jalan/ transportasi Fasilitas Umum a. Pembuangan Limbah b. Konstruksi pertahanan pantai PRASARANA Air Bersih Energi (Listrik) Telekomunikasi MATA PENCAHARIAN PRIMER Pertanian Kehutanan Perikanan Pertambangan SEKUNDER Manufaktur TERSIER Perdagangan Jasa Penduduk Lahan Ekonomi

Logical Framework ASPEK PEMBANGUNAN ASPEK LINGKUNGAN EKOLOGI NON EKOLOGI Tanah/Lahan Udara Air Ekonomi Sosial Politik INFRASTRUKTUR SARANA Perumahan Jalan/ transportasi Fasilitas Umum a. Pembuangan Limbah b. Konstruksi pertahanan pantai PRASARANA Air Bersih Energi (Listrik) Telekomunikasi MATA PENCAHARIAN PRIMER Pertanian Kehutanan Perikanan Pertambangan SEKUNDER Manufaktur TERSIER Perdagangan Jasa

Mental Model #1: Permukiman Sungai Tanah liat Pasir Rumah Batu pondasi Bata Bukit/ Gunung Kayu konstruksi Kayu bakar Lahan Tier 1 Tier 2 Hutan Fokus Kajian Awal

Mental Model #2: Jalan Fokus Kajian Awal Lahan Sungai Batu pondasi Pasir Batu pondasi JALAN Bukit/ Gunung Fokus Kajian Awal Lahan Tier 1 Tier 2

Mental Model #3: Populasi Kegiatan Konstruksi Kebutuhan Rumah Lapangan Kerja Pendapatan Ketersediaan Rumah Inmigrasi Populasi Penduduk Kelahiran Outmigrasi Kematian Tier 1 Harapan Hidup Tier 2

PDRB

Skenario Makro Critical Pressure Points Di Aceh Berbasis Pemahaman Pembangunan Berkelanjutan Perlu adanya Intervensi Kebijakan untuk mengurangi Dampak Negatif Pembangunan Tertiary Critical Pressure Points of Natural Resources aspect (physical Environment) Critical Pressure Points on Social-Economic aspects Kegiatan pembangunan dan masyarakat ? Kegiatan pembangunan dan masyarakat ? Secondary Primary Sebelum Bencana Gempa dan Tsunami Masa Rehabilitasi dan Rekonstruksi Masa setelah Rehabilitasi dan Rekonstruksi Terjadinya Bencana Gempa dan Tsunami serta Masa Gawat Darurat

Input Kebijakan berbasis CEPP-SENRA Analisis Kondisional Program Prioritas Apa / Bagaimana / Kapan: Strategi – Program Optimis Positif : Tidak melewati titik kritis SDA/LH a. CP1 KEBIJAKAN: Preventif + maintain b. CP2 ? c. CP3 A New Sustainable Aceh ? INPUT KEBIJAKAN BaU BaU ? Program Prioritas Apa / Bagaimana / Kapan: Strategi – Program Pesimis Negatif : melewati titik kritis SDA/LH a. CP1 KEBIJAKAN: Kuratif + perbaikan b. CP2 T0 2005 Akhir masa Rekon dan Rehab 2009/2010 c. CP3 Keterangan To : tahun pengamatan awal CP1 : Critical Point 1 Berdasarkan hasil kajian model CEPP - SENRA Faktor determinan CP

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