ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Pertemuan 9 -mupo- Mata kuliah : F0922 - Pengantar Analisis Pendapatan Tetap Dan Ekuitas Tahun : 2010 ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Pertemuan 9 -mupo-

ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS Materi : Review: Market/Macro Economy analysis Kasus : mengenai Market Analysis

Dalam penilaian suatu Investasi, dikenal Top down/three step 1. Market Analysis Dalam penilaian suatu Investasi, dikenal Top down/three step appraoch, antara lain dikenal Market Analysis/Macro Economic Analysis. 1.1 Framework of Analysis: 1.1.1 Fundamental Analysis 1.1.2 Approach to Fundamental Analysis: - Domestic and global economic analysis - Industry analysis - Company analysis 1.1.3 Why use the top-down approach? Bina Nusantara University

Market Analysis (cont’) 1.2 Global Economic Considerations 1.2.1 Performance in countries and regions is highly variable. 1.2.2 Political risk 1.2.3 Exchange rate risk Sales Profits Stock returns 1.3 Key Economic Variables 1.3.1 Gross domestic product 1.3.2 Unemployment rates 1.3.3 Interest rates & inflation 1.3.4 Budget deficit 1.3.5 Consumer sentiment

Market Analysis (cont’) 1.4 Demand Shocks Demand shock - an event that affects demand for goods and services in the economy. 1.4.1 Tax rate cut 1.4.2 Increases in government spending 1.5 Supply Shocks Supply shock - an event that influences production capacity or production costs. 1.5.1 Commodity price changes 1.5.2 Educational level of economic participants 1.6 Government Policy 1.6.1 Fiscal Policy- government spending and taxing actions. - Direct policy - Slowly implemented

Government Policy (cont’) 1.6.2 Monetary Policy - manipulation of the money supply to influence economic activity. - Initial & feedback effects - Tools of monetary policy Open market operations Discount rate Reserve requirements 1.7 Cyclical Indicators 1.7.1 Leading Indicators - tend to rise and fall in advance of the economy. Examples: - Avg. weekly hours of production workers - Stock Prices

Cyclical Indicators (cont’) 1.7.2 Coincident Indicators- indicators that tend to change directly with the economy. Examples: Industrial production Manufacturing and trade sales 1.7.3 Lagging Indicators- indicators that tend to follow the lag economic performance. Ratio of trade inventories to sales Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income

2. Kasus : Market Analysis Data: 31 Desember 2009 - Gross Domestic Product naik dari 2008 US Dollar 2,357 menjadi US Dollar 2,724 per kapita - Pertumbuhan ekonomi 6,5%, sesuai target - Interest rate turun menjadi 6,5%, awal tahun 9,5% - IHSG mencapai nilai tertinggi diakhir tahun Rp 2,500 - Kurs US Dollar 9,450 awal tahun Rp 11, 300 - Minyak mentah naik menjadi US$ 79 per barel, APBN meperhitungkan rat-rat tahun 2009 US$ 70 per barel - Situasi politik agak memanas - Bencana alam 2009 cukup banyak, dan 2010 BMG diperkirakan cuaca kurang bagus Tanggapi data di atas apakah Saudara optimis atau pessimis dengan keadaan di atas, jelaskan dengan argumen Saudara!