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THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Dr. H. Mustika Lukman Arief, SE., MBA., MM.

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Presentasi berjudul: "THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Dr. H. Mustika Lukman Arief, SE., MBA., MM."— Transcript presentasi:

1 THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Dr. H. Mustika Lukman Arief, SE., MBA., MM.

2 Apa itu manajemen keuangan….? Manajemen Keuangan meliputi semua aktivitas yang berhubungan dengan usaha mendapatkan dana yang dibutuhkan perusahaan serta mengggunakan dan/mengalokasikan dana tersebut secara efesien dan efektif guna mencapai tujuan perusahaan.

3 Manajemen keuangan digunakan untuk menjawab pertanyaan: 1.What long-term investments should the firma engage in? 2.How can the firm raise the money for the required investments? 3.How much short-term cash flow does a company need to pay its bills?

4 Proses manajemen keuangan for-profit organization Laba bersih Dividen Laba ditahan Inv. Jangka panjang Inv. Jangka pendek Jangka pendek (Hutang Lanca) Jangka panjang Modal sendiri:  Laba ditahan  Saham  Hutang jk. pj g  Alternatif investasi?  Penilaian investasi?  pemilihan investasi?  Jumlah kebutuhan dana?  Sumber dana?  Struktur modal?  Biaya modal?

5 The Role of The Financial Manager  Capital Budgeting decision  decision to in tangible or intangible assets also called the investment decision  Financing decision  raising money that the firm needs for its investments and operations  Capital structure  the mix of long term debt and equity financing

6 Untuk kebijakan fungsi tersebut, ada 3 keputusan yang perlu diambil 1.Keputusan investasi 2.Keputusan Pendanaan 3.Kebijkan Dividen Masing-masing keputusan harus berorientasi pada pencapaian tujuan perusahaan

7 Tujuan Perusahaan Dalam pengertian mikroekonomi disebut bahwa tujuan perusahaan adalah memaksimalkan keuntungan. Namun ditinjau dari sudut keuangan tujuan ini mengabaikan berbagai kerumitan yang ada dalam praktek pengambilan keputusan sehari-hari Kelemahan Maksimalisasi Keuntungan: 1.Tidak mengaitkan besarnya keuntungan yang dihasilkan denga waktu perolehannya 2.Tidak memperhatikan masalah waktu dan ketidakpastian 3.Mengabikan lamanya waktu pengembalian 4.Mengabaikan beban modal yang harus dipikul pemegang saham

8 Tujuan Perusahaan Tujuan perusahaan adalah memaksimalkan kekayaan pemegang saham dengan cara memaksimalkan nilai perusahaan ‘Basic goal: Maximize stockholder value’ indikatornya - Firm’s value yang maksimal - Stock price yang maksimal  Nilai perusahaan dicerminkan oleh harga pasar saham  Mengapa harga pasar saham mencerminkan nilai perusahaan atau kekayaan pemegang saham?

9 Tujuan manajemen Keuangan  mempelajari dan memahami bagaimana upaya perusahaan dalam memaksimalkan nilai perusahaannya (Value of the firm) memalui 3 macam keputusan yaitu: keputusan investasi, keputusan pendaaan, kebijakan dividen. V f = f (I, F, D) V f = value of the firm (nilai perusahaan) I = Investment Decision F = Financial Decision D = Dividen Policy Decision

10 The Objektive Function Maximime the Value of the firm The Objektive Function Maximime the Value of the firm Basic corporation financial decision 1. How do you allocate resources across competing uses? 2. How do you raise founds to finance the projects? 3. How much do you reinvest back into the business and how much do you return to you stockholders? Basic corporation financial decision 1. How do you allocate resources across competing uses? 2. How do you raise founds to finance the projects? 3. How much do you reinvest back into the business and how much do you return to you stockholders? The corporate financial toolbox Accounting stetement and ratio Present value Risk and return meodels Option pricing models The corporate financial toolbox Accounting stetement and ratio Present value Risk and return meodels Option pricing models

11 Aksioma-aksioma yang diperlukan untuk memahami Manajemen Keuangan Aksioma 1Keseimbangan risiko dan pengembalian (the risk-return tradeoff) Jangan menambahkan risiko kecuali mendapatkan kompensasi tambahan pendapatan Aksioma 2Nilai waktu uang (time value of money)-uang yang diterima ssekarang lebih berharga dari uang yang diterima kemudian Aksioma 3Yang utama adalah uang kas-bukan besarnya laba

12 Lanjutan… Aksioma 4Tambahan Arus Kas (Increment Cash Flow) satu-satunya pertambahan nilai yang dihitung Aksioma 5Kondisi persaingan pasar-alasan kenapa sangat sulit mendapatkan laba yang luar biasa Aksioma 6Pasar modal yang efesien-pasar yang bergerak cepat dan harga yang tepat Aksioma 7Masalah keagenan-manajer tidak akan bekerja bagi pemilik perusahaan jika tidak selaras dengan kepentingan mereka Aksioma 8Perpajakan yang berdampak pada keputusan bisnis Aksioma 9Tidak semua risiko sama, ada sebagian risiko yangd dapat didiversifikasi Aksioma 10Melakukan sesuatu yang benar adalah perilaku yang etis, dan banyak dilema etika dalam manajemen keuangan

13 What is a Corporation?  Types of Corporations  Public Companies  Private Corporations  Limited Liability Corporations (LLC)

14 Organizing a Business  Types of Business Organizations  Sole Proprietorships  Partnerships  Corporations  Limited Liability Partnerships

15 Organizing a Business Sole Partnership Corporation proprietorship Who owns the business? The manager Partners Shareholders No No Usually Unlimited Unlimited Limited No No Yes Are managers and owners separate? What is the owner’s liability? Are the owner & business taxed separately?

16 Question 1.Why should a company concetrate primarily on wealth maximization instead of profit maximization? 2.What are the three types of financial management decisions? For each type of decision, give an example of the business transaction that would be relevant. 3.Firms often involve themselves in projects that do not result directly in profits: for example, IBM and Mobil Oil frequently support public television broadcast. Do these projects contradict the goal of maximization of shareholder wealth? Why or why not.

17 Case In early 2001, Doc and Lyn McGee formed the McGee Company. The company produced a full line of cakes, and its specialties included chess cake, le,on pound cake, and double-iced, double-chocolate cake. The couple formed the company as an outside interest, and both continued to marketing and distribution. With good product qualty and sound marketing plan, the company grew rapidly. In early 2006, the company was featured in a widely distributed entrepreneurial magazine. Later that year, the company was featured in Gourmet Desserts, sales exploded, and the company began receiving orders from all over the world. Because of the increased sales. Doc left his order job, followed shortly by lyn. The company hired additional workers to meet demand. Unfortunately, the fast growth experienced by the company led to cash flow and capacity problems. The company is currently producing as many cakes a possible with the assets it owns, but demand for its cakes is still growing. Further, the company has been approached by national supermarket chain with an proposal to put four of its cakes in all of the chain’s stores, and a national restaurant chain has contracted the company obout selling McGee cakes in its restaurants. The restaurant would sell the cakes without a brand name.

18 Doc and Lyn have operated as a sole proprietorship. They have approached you to help manage direct the company’s growth. Specifically, they have asked you to answer the following questions: 1.What are the advantages and disadvantages of changing the company organization from a sole proprietorship to an Limited Liabilities Company (LLC)? 2.What are the advantages and disdvantages of changing the company organization from a sole proprietorship to a corporation? 3.Ulimately, what action would you recommend the company undertake? Why ?

19 Financial Statement Analysis

20 Financial analysis can be defined as the process of assessing the financial condition of a firm Basic Fianancial Statements  Balanced Sheet  The Income Statement

21 The Balance Sheet Definition financial statements that show the value of the firms’s assets and liabilities at a particular point in time (from an accounting perspective)

22 US Corporation Balance Sheet U.S. CORPORATION 2004 and 2005 Balance Sheets (S in Millions) Assets Liabilities and Owners’ Equity Current assets current liabilities Cash $ 104 $ 160 ccounts payable $ 232 $ 266 Accoumts receivable notes payable Inventory total $ 428 $ 389 Total $1.112 $1.403 Fixed assets Net plant and Long-term debt $ 408 $ 454 Equipment $1,644 $1,709 Owners’ equity Common stock and Paid-in surplus Retained earnigs 1,320 1,629 Total $1,920 $2,269 Total liabilities and Total assets $2,756 $3,112 owners’ equty $2,756 $3,112

23 The Income Statement Definition Financial statement that shows the revenues, expenses, and net income of a firm over a period of time (from an accounting perspektive)

24 US Corporation Income Statement U.S. CORPORATION 2005 Income Statement (S in Millions) Net sales $1,509 Cost of goods sold 750 Depreciation 65 Earnings before interest and taxes $ 694 Interest paid 70 Taxable income $ 624 Taxes 212 Net income $ 412 Diviends $ 103 Addition to retained earnings 309

25 Why Evaluate Financial Statements? Internal uses - Performance evaluation-compensation and comparison between divisions - Planning for the future-guide in estimating future cash flows External uses - Creditors - Suppliers - Custolers - Stockholders

26 Financial Ratio The principal analytical tool of the financial analyst is the financial ratio Financial ratios help us identify some of the financial strengths and weaknesses of a company The ratios give us a way of making meaningful comparisons of a firm’s financial data at different points in time and with other firms

27 Categori of Financial Ratios Short-term solvency or liquidity ratios Long-term solvency or financial leverage ratios Asset management or turnever ratios Profitability ratios Market value ratios

28 Liquidity Ratios Quick ratio = current assets - inventorie s Current liabilitie s Current ratio = current assets current liabilities Cash ratio = cash + marketable securities Current liabilities

29 Long-term solvency or financial leverage ratios Total debt ratio = total liabilities total assets Debt/equity ratio = Total debt equity Times interest earned = EBIT Interest payments Long term debt ratio = long term debt long term debt+equty Equity multiplier = Total Assets equity

30 Asset management or turnover ratios Receivable turnover ratio = Sales Receivable Day’s sales in receivable = 365 Receivables turnover Inventory turnover ratio = cost of goods sold Inventory Day’s sales in inventory = inventory Cost of goods sold/365

31 Asset management or turnover ratios Fixed asset turnover ratio = Sales Net fixed assets Total asset turn over= Sales Total assets NWC Turnover = Sales/NCW Net working capital (NCW) = CA - CL

32 Profitability ratios Net profit margin = net income Sales Return on asset (ROA) = net Income Total Return on equity = net income Total equity

33 Market value ratios PE Ratio = Price per share/Earnings per share Market-to-book ratio = market value per sgare/book value per share

34 Sample Balance Sheet Numbers in millions Cash A/P A/R N/P Inventori Other CL 1,662 1,352 Total CL 1,995 1,775 Total CA 2,2561,675LT Debt 843 1,091 Net FA 3,1383,358Total 2,556 2,167 Equty Total 5,394 Asset 5,033Total Liab. 5,394 5,033 & Equity

35 Sample Income Statement Numbers in millions, except EPS & DPS

36 Liquidity Ratios 1.Current Ratio = CA/CL /1995= 1.13 times 2. Quick Ratio = (CA-Inventory)/CL - ( )/1995 = 83 times 3. Cash Ratio = Cash/CL -696/1995 = 35 times

37 Long-term Solvency ratios Total Debt Ratio = (TA – TE)/ TA - (5394 – 2556)/5394=52.61% Debt/Equity = TD/TE - ( )/2556= 1.11 times Equity Multiplier = TA/TE = 1+D/E - 1=1.11= 2.11 Long-term debt ratio = LTD/(LTD=TE) - 843/(843=2556)= 24.80% Times Interest Earned= EBIT/Interest /7= times

38 Asset management or turnover ratios Computing Receivables ratios Receivables Turnover= Sales/Accounts= Receivable /956= times Days’ Sales in receivables = 365/ Receivales Turnover - 365/5.23= 70 days

39 Asset management or turnover ratios Computing Inventory ratios Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold/Inventory /301= 6.66 times Days’ Sales in Inventory = 365/Inventory Turnover - 365/6.66 = 55 days

40 Asset management or turnover ratios Computing Inventory ratios Total Asset Turnover= sales/Total Assets /5394= 93 - it is not unusual for TAT <1, especially if a firm has a large amount of fixed assets NWC Turnover = Sales/NWC /( )= times Fixed Asset Turnover= Sales/NFA /3138= 1.59 times

41 Profitability Measures Profit Margin= Net Income/Sales - 689/5000= 13.78% Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income/Total Assets - 689/5394 = 12.77% Return on Equity (REO) = Net Income/Total Equty - 689/2556= 26.96%

42 Computing Market Value Measures Market Price = $ per share Shares outstanding = million PER ratio = Price per share/Earnings per share /3.61 = times Market-to-book ratio = market value per share/book value per share / (2556/190.9) = 6.56 times

43 Harley-Davidson, Inc. Ratio Analysis 1. Liquidity ratios Average industries Current ratio Acid-test ratio Cash ratio ,5 1, Financial leverage ratio Total Debt ratio Debt/Equity ratio Equity multiplier Long term debt ratio Time interest earned 52.61% % % % Turnover ratio Total assets turnover Account receivable turnover Inventory turnover Fixed assets turnover Profitability ratios Net profit margin Return on Assets Return on Equity 13.78% 12.77% 26.96% 14.04% 16.86% 35.56%

44 Using the DuPont Identity ROE = PM * TAT * EM ROE = Net Income/sales x sales/assets x assets/Equity - Profit margin is a measure of the firm’s operating efficiensy - how well does it control costs - total asset turnover is a measure of the firm’s asset use efficiency-how well does it manage its assets - Equity multiplier nis a meausre of the firm’s financial leverage

45 Expanded Dupont Analysis- Aeropostale data Balance Sheet Data income Statement Data - cash= 138,356 - Sales= 734,868 - inventory= 61,807 - COGS+ 505,152 - other CA = 12,284 - SG&A = 141,520 - fixed assets = 94, interest = (760) - equity = 185, taxes = 34, 702 Computations Computations - TA = 307,048 - NI= 54,254 - TAT = PM= 7,383% - EM = ROA= % - ROE= %

46 Aeropostale Expanded DuPont Chart ROE = 29.22% 17,668 11,654 TAT=2,393PM= 7,383% NI=54,254 Sales=734,868 TA=307,048 Sales= 680,614TC=734,868 COGS= 505, 152 Interest= (760) SG&A= 141,520 Taxes= 34,702 Fixed Assets=94601 Current Assets= 212,447 Inventory= 61,807 Other CA=12,284 Cash= 138,356

47 ROE= net income x sales x assets sales assets equty = 54,254 x 734, 868 x 307, , , , 640 = x x = 29.2%

48 As we study the figure, we quickly see that improvement in the ROE can common in one or more of four ways: 1.Increase sales without a disproportionate increase in cost and expenses 2.Reduce COSGS or operating expences 3.Increase the sales relative to the asset base, either by increasing sales or by reducing the amounts invesred in company assets. From our earlier exammination of Harley-Davidson, we learned that the firm had excessive account receivables and fixed assets. Thus management need to reduce these assets to the lowest in the return on which would in turn result in an increase in the return on assets and then the return on equity 4.Increase the use of debt relative to equity, but only to the extent tha it does not unduly jeopardize the firm’s financial position.

49 Limitations of ratio analysis 1.It is sometimes diffcult to identify the industry category to which a firm belongs when the firm enganges in multiple line of business 2.Published industry averages are only approximations and provide the user with general guidelines rather than scientifically determoned averages of the ratios of all or even a representative sample of the firms within an industry 3.Accounting practice differ widely among firms and can lead to differences in computed ratio 4.An industry average may not provide a desirable target ratio or norm 5.Many firm experience seasonality in their operation

50 Case Chris was recently hired by S&S Air, Inc., to assist the company with its financial planning and to evaluate the company’s performance. Chris graduated from college five years ago with a finance degree. He has been employed in the finance departement of a fortune 500 company since then. S&S Air was founded 10 years ago by friends Mark Sexton and Todd Story. The company has manufactured and light airplanes this period, and the company’s products have received high reviews for safety and reliability. The company has a niche market in that it sells primarily to individuals who own and fly their own airplanes. The company has two models; the birdie, which sells for $53,000, and the Eagle, which sells for $78,000.0

51 Although the company manufactures aircraft, its operations are different from commercial aircraft companies S&S Air builds aircraft to oredr. By using prefabricated parts, the company can complete the manufacture of an airplane in only five weeks. The company also receives a deposit on each order, as well as another partial payment before the order is complete. In contras, a commersial air plane may take one and one-half to two years to manufacture once the order is placed Mark and Todd have provide the following financial statements. Chris has gathered the industry ratios for the light airplane manufacturing industry.

52 Sample Income Statement Revenues $21,785,300 Cost of of Goods Sold 15,874,700 Expenses 2,762,500 Depreciation 976,200 EBIT 2,171,900 Interest Expense 341,600 Taxable Income 1,830,300 Taxes 732,120 Net Income 1,098,180 Dividends $439,272 Add to retained earning 658,908

53 Sample Balance Sheet Cash A/R Inventory Total CA Net FA Total Assets 2006 $315, , ,800 $1,561,800 11,516,000 13,077, A/P $635,000 N/P 1,450,000 Total CL 2,085,000 LT Debt 3,800,000 Common stock 250,000 R/E 6,942,800 Total Liab. 13,077,800 & Equity

54 Light Airplane Industri ratios LowerMedianUpper 1Current ratio Quick ratio Cash ratio Total Assets turnover Inventory turnover Receivables turnover Total debt Debt-Equity ratio Equity multiplier Time interest earned Profit margin4.05%6.98%9.87% 12Return on assets6.05%10.53%13.21% 13Return on equity (ROE)9.93%16.54%26.15%

55 Question 1.Using the financial statements provided for S&S Air, calculate each of the ratios listed in the table for the light aircraft industry. 2.Compare the performance of S&S Air to the industry, for each ratio, comment on why it might be viewed as positive or negative relative to the industry. How do you think S&S Air’s ratio would compare to industry average?

56 TIME VALUE OF MONEY

57 Future Value-Taking an amout and finding its value at sometime in the future Present Value-Taking an anmout from sometime in the future and finding its value today.

58 Future Values Future Value – Amount to which an invenstement will grow after earning interest Compound Interest – Interest earned on interest. Simple Interest – Intrest earned only on the original investment.

59 Future Values Example – Simple Interest Interest earned at a rate of 6% for five years on a principal balance of $100 Today Future Years Interest earned Value Value at the end of year 5 = $130

60 Future Values Example – Compound Interest Interest earned at a rate of 6% for five years on the previous year’s balance Today Future Years Interest earned Value Value at the end of year 5 = $133.82

61 Future Values Example-FV 1.What is the future value of $100 if interest is compounded annually at a rate 6% for five years? FV = $ 100 x (1+.06) 5 = $ What is the future value of $ 100 invested for five years at a nominal interest rate 12%, compounded continuosly? FV = $ 100x(1+r) t

62

63 Compounding Periods Compounding an investment m times a years for T years provides for future value of wealth: FV = C o for example, if you $50 for years at 12% compounded semi-annually, your investment will grow to FV = 6 = $70.93

64 Effective Interest Rates reff= (1+r/m) m - 1 Reff= (1+0,12/2) = 12,36% Continuous Compounding : reff = e m - 1 Reff = (2,71828) 0, = 12,75%

65 Dampak dari periode pemajemukan yang berbeda atas nilai masa depan $1.000, diinvestasikan dengan tingkat bunga nominal 8% JumlahPeriode Pemajemukan Future value pada akhir 1 th Tingkat bunga tahunan efektif $ Tahunan $ 1.080,00 8,00% $ Semi tahunan $ 1.081,60 8,16% $ bulanan $ 1.082,43 8,24% $ Bulanan $ 1.083,00 8,30% $ Harian $ 1.083,28 8,32% $ Berkelanjutan $ 1.083,29 8,33%

66 How Long is the wait? If we deposit $5,000 today in an account paying 10% how long does it take to grow to $10,000? FV = C o x (1+r) T $10,000=$5,000x(1.10) T (1.10) T = $10,000 = 2 $5,000 ln( 1.10) T = ln 2 T = ln 2 = = 7,27 years ln (1.10)

67 What Rate Is Enough? Assume the total cost of a college education will be $50,000 when your child enters college in 12 years. You have $50,000 to invest today. What rate of interest must you earn on your investment to cover the cost of your child’s education ? About 21.15% FV = C o x (1+r) T $50,000=$5,000 x (1.r) 12 (1.r) 12 =$50,000=10 (1+r)10 1/12 $5,000 r =10 1/12 = 1 = = 1 = 2115

68 What is the future value three years hence of $1.000 invested in an account with a stated annual interest rate of 8% a. Compounded annually b. Compounded semiannually c. Compounded monthly d. Why does the future value increase as the Compounding period shortens

69 Present Values Present Value Value today of a future cash flow. Discount factor Present value of a $1 future payment. Discount Rate Interest rate used to compute prent values of future cash flows.

70 T IMES V ALUE OF M ONEY ( APPLICATIONS )  The PV formula has many application, you can solve for the remaining variable. PV = FV x 1 (1+r) t

71 What is the present value of $ 100 to be received in 3 years if the appropriate interest rate 1s 10%, 15%, and 20% PV = $100 x 1/(1,1) 3 = $75,13 PV = $100 x 1/(1,15) 3 = $65,75 PV = $100 x 1/(1,20) 3 = $57,87

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73 PV of Multiple cash Flows Example your auto dealer gives you the choice to pay $15,500 cash now, or make three payments: $8,000 now and $4,000 at the end of the flowwing two years. If your cost of money is 8% wich do you prefer? Immediate payment 8, PV 1 = 4,000 = 3, (1+.08) 1 PV 2= 4,000 = 3, (1+.8) 2 Total PV = $15,133.06

74 Example you are selling your house. The Smith have offered you $ they will pay you immediately. The Joneses have offered you $ , but the cannot pay you until theree years from today. The interest rate is 10 percent. Which offer should you choose? you have the opportunity to make invesment that cost $ if you make the investment now, you will receive $ and three years from today, respectively. The appropriate discount rate for this invesment is 12%. Should you make invesment?

75 You are given three invesment alternatives to anlyze. The cach flows from these three invesments are follows: END OF YEARABC 1$5,000$1,000$10,000 2$5,000$3,000$10,000 3$5,000 $10,000 4-$15,000$10,000 5$15,000$10,000-$40,000 What is the present value of each of these three invesments if 10 percent is the appropriate discount rate?

76 Perpetuities & Annuities Annuity = Equally spaced level stream of cash flows for a limited period of time. Perpetuity = A stream of level cash payments that never ends.

77 Annuities FV of Annuity Formula C = cash payment r = interest rate t = Number of years cash payment is received FVAN = C X (1 + r) t - 1 r

78 Annuities Example – future Value of annual payments You plan to save $4,000 every year for 20 years and then retire. Given a 10% rate of interest, what will be the FV of your retirement account? FVAN = x (1 + 0,10) ,10 FVAN = $229,100

79 Annuities PV of Annuity Formula C = cash payment r = interest rate t = Number of years cash payment is received PVAN = C x (1 – 1/(1+r) t r

80 Annuities Example – Annuities you are purchasing a car. Your are scheduled to make 3 annual instllments of $4,000 per year. Given a rate of interest of 10%, what is the price you are paying for the car (i.e. what is the PV) PVAN = 4.00 x 1- 1/ (1+0,1) 3 0,1 PVAN = $9.947,41

81 Annuity: Example Your insurance agent offers to sell you an annuity. It will pay you $400 per for five years. Your requred rate of return is 7%. How much will you be willing to pay? ….. ……… …..…....……. ………...… PV = = $1,640.08

82 Annuity: Example Your insurance agent offers to sell you an annuity. It will pay you $400 per for five years beginning of each years. Your requred rate of return is 7%. How much will you be willing to pay? …... ……….. ….……. ….……....…….. …… PAVN = C x (1 – 1/(1+r) t x (1 + r) r PV = = = $1,724.85

83  Your company is considering leasing $ piece of equipment for the next 10 years. The annual lease payments of $ are due beginning of each year. The buy the equipment for $ at the end of the leasing period. Should your company accept the lease offer if appropriate discount rate is 8 percent a year?

84 Perpetuities PV of Perpetuity Formula c = cash payment r = interest rate PV = c r

85 Perpetuities & Annuities Example – Annuities in order to create an endowment, which pays $100,000 per year, forever, how much money must be set aside today in the rate of interest is 10% ? PV = 100,000= $1,000, The market interest rate is 15 percent. What is the price of a consol bond that pays $120 annually ?

86 Perpetuities & Annuities Example –continued if the first perpetuity payment will not be received until three years from today, how much money needs to be set aside today? PV = 1,000,000 = $751,315 (1+.10) 3

87 Inflation Inflation – Rate at which prices as a whole are increasing. Nominal Interest Rate – Rate at which money inveted grows. Real Interest Rate – Rate at which the purchasing power of an investment increases.

88 Inflation 1 + real interest rate = 1+nominal interest rate 1+inflation rate Approximation formula Real int. rate = nominal int. rate – inflation rate

89 Questions and Problem 1.Ellen, a sophmore mechanical engineering student, receives a call from an insurance agent, who believes that Ellen is an older woman ready to retire from teaching. He talks to her about several annuities that she could buy that would guarantee her an annual fixed income. The annuities are as fllows: If Ellen could earn 12 percent on her money by placing it in savings account, should she place it instead in any of the annuities? Which ones, if any? Why ? AnnuityInitial payment into annuity (At t=0) Amount of money received year Duration of Annuity (Years) A$50,000$8,50012 B$60,000$7,00025 C$70,000$8,00020

90 Questions and Problem 2. You are triying to plan for retirement in 10 years and currently you have $150,000 in savings account and $250,000 in stock. In addition, you plan to add to your savings by depositing $8,000 per year in your saving account at the end of each of the next five years and then $10,000 per year at the end of each year for the final five years until retirement. a.Assumsing your savings account returns 8 percent compounded annually and your investment in stocks will return 12 percent compounded annually, how much will you have at the end of 10 years? (ignore taxes) b.if you expect to live 20 years after you retire, and at a retirement you deposit all of your savings in a bank account paying 11 percent, how much can you withdraw each year after retirement (20 equal withdrawls beginning one year after you retire) to end up with zero- balance at death?

91

92 What Is Capital Budgeting  Capital budgeting involves the decision making process with respect to investment in fixed assets; specifically, it involves measuring the incremental cash flows associated with investment proposals and evaluating the attractiveness of these cash flows relative to the project’s costs  Capital budgeting is decision process that managers use to identify those projects that add to the firm’s value, and as such it is perhaps the most important task faced by financial managers and their staffs.

93  First, a firm’s capital budgeting decisions define its strategic direction, because moves into new products, services, or markets must be preceded by capital expenditures.  Second, the results of capital budgeting decisions continue for many years  Thied, poor capital budgeting can have serious finacial consequences.

94 Projects Classifications 1.Replacement – Worn out equipment 2.Replacement – Reduce costs 3.Expansian of existing produkcts or markets 4.Expansion into new products or markets 5.Safety/environmental projects 6.Recearch and Developments 7.Other

95 JENIS-JENIS PROYEK  Independent Projects: if the cash flows of one are unaffected by the acceptance of the other. Acceptance or rejection of project depends upon merits of project compared to decision criteria.  Mutualli Exclusive Prjocts: if the cash flows of one can be adversely impacted by the acceptance of the other. The acceptance of one project excludes the possibility of accepting the other(s)

96 An Example of Mutally Exclusive Projects BRIDGE vs BOAT to get products across a river

97 Some Alternative Invesment Rules Payback Period Discounted Payback Net Present Value (NPV) Profitability Index Internal Rate of Return Modified internal rate of Return (MIRR)

98 Payback Period How long does it take to get the initial cost back in a nominal sense? Computation  Estimate the cash flows  Subtract the future cash flows from the initial cost until the initial investment has been recovered Decision Rule - Accept if the payback period is less than some preset limit

99 Net Cash Flows for Projects S and L Project S : , Project L : , Payback S = 2 + $100/$300= 2.33 years Payback L= 3 + $200/$600 = 3.33 years

100 Advantages and Disadvantages of Payback  Advantages  Disadvantages  Easy ro undersand  ignore the time value of money  adjusts for uncertainly of later cash flows  requres an arbitrary cutoff point  Biased towards liquidity  Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff date  Biased againt long-term projects, such as recearch and development, and new projects

101 Discounted Payback Period Compute the present value of each cash flow and then determinane how long it takes to Payback on a discounted basis Compare to a specified required period Decision Rule – Accept the project if it pays back on a discounted basis within the specified time

102 Projects S and L: Discounted Payback Period Project S : , Disc. NCF (at 10%) -1, Project L : , Disc. NCF (at 10%) -1, Payback S = 2 + $100/$300= 2.33 years Payback L= 3 + $200/$400 = 3.33 years

103 Net Present Value NPV= - C o + C + C +….+ C = -C o + C (1+r) (1+r) 2 (1+r) N (1+r) T Net Present Value – Present value of cash flows minus initial invesments Opportunity Cost of Capital – Expected rate of return given up by investing in a project

104 The Net Present Value Method : Minimum Acceptance Criteria: Accept if NPV > O Ranking Criteria: Choose the highest NPV Net Present Value Equal to or greater than zero Accept the inevestment Reject the investment Less than zero

105 Net Present Value (NPV) NPV = -1, (1+0,10) 1 (1+0,10) 2 (1+0,10) 3 (1+0,10) 4 =78.82 Cash Flows Net Present Value 78.82

106 NPV – Decision Rule A positive NPV means that the project is expected to add value to the firm and will therefore increase the wealth of the owners. Since our goal is to increase owner wealth, NPV is a direct measure of how well this project will meet our goal.

107 Goo Attributes of the NPV Rule 1.Uses csh flows 2.Uses ALL cash flows of the project 3.Discounts ALL cash flows properly  Reinvestment assumption: the NPV rule assumes that all cash flows can be reinvested at the discount rate.

108 Profitability Index (PI) PI = TotalPV of Future Cash Flows Initial Investment  Pls = $1,078.82/$1,000=1.079  Minimum Acceptance Criteria:  Accept if PI > 1  Ranking Criteria:  select alternative with highest PI

109 Profitability Index (PI) Disadvantages  problem with mutually exclusive invesments Advantages:  maybe usesful when available invesment funds are limited  Easy to undersantand and communicate  Correct decision when evaluating independent projects

110 Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Definition : IRR is the return that makes the NPV= 0 Decision Rule: Accept the project if the IRR is greater than the required return

111 CF o + C F 1 + CF 2 +……+ CF n = 0 (1+IRR) (1+0,10) 2 (1+IRR) n -1, = 0 (1+r) (1+r) 2 (1+r) 3 (1+r) 4 IRR s = 14.5%

112 CF o + C F 1 + CF 2 +……+ CF n = 0 (1+IRR) (1+0,10) 2 (1+IRR) n -1, = 0 (1+r) (1+r) 2 (1+r) 3 (1+r) 4 IRR L = 14.8%

113 NPV Vs. IRR NPV and IRR will generally give us the same decision Exceptions  non-conventional cash flows – cash flow signs change more than once  Mutually exclusive projects initial invesments are substantially different Timing of cash flows is substantially different

114 Example - Non – conventional Cash flows Suppoese an investment will cost $90,000 initially and will generate the following cash flows:  Year 1: 132,000  Year 2: 100,000  Year 3:-150,000 The required return is 15% Should we accept or reject the project?

115 IRR and Mutually Exclusive Projects Mutually exclusive projects  If you choose one, you can’t choose the other  Example: you can choose to attend graduate scholl at either Havard or Standard, but not both Intuitively you would use the following decision rules:  NPV – choose the project with the higher NPV  IRR - choose the project with the higher IRR

116 Example With Mutually Exclusive Projects The required return for both projects is 10% Which project should you accept and why? PeriodProject AProject B IRR19.43%22.17% NPV

117 Conflicts Between NPV and IRR NPV directly measures the increase in value to the firm Whenever there is a conflict between NPV and another decision rule, you should always use NPV  IRR is unrealiable in the following situations  non-conventaional cash flows  Mutually exclusive projects

118 Managers like rates—prefer IRR to NPV comparisons. Can we give them Yes, MIRR is the discount rate that causes the PV of a projec’ts terminal value (TV) to equal the PV of cost. TV is found by compounding inflows at WACC Thus, MIRR assumes cash inflow are reinvested at WACC. PV of costs= terminal Value (1 + MIRR)

119 Modified Internal Rate of Return

120 Your division is considering two invesment projects: a.Compute the payback, discounted payback, NPV, PI, IRR, and MIRR for the following two projects. Assume the required return is 10% b.If two project mutually exclusive and COC 5%, which project should the firm undertake? c.If two project mually eclusive and COC 15%, which project should the firm undertake? d.What is the crossover rate? YearProject AProject B 0-$

121 Case Your first assigment in your new position as assistant financial analyst at Caledonia Products is to evaluate two new capital-budgeting proposals. Because this is your first assigment, you have been asked not only to provide a recommendation, but also to respond to a number budgeting process. This is a standard procedure for all new financial analysts at Caledonia and will serve to determine whether you are moved directly into the capital-budgeting analysis departement or are provided with remedial training. The memorandum you received outlining your assgment follows: to: The New Financial Analyst from: Mr. V. Morrison, CEO, Caledonia Products RE: capital-budgeting analysis provide an evaluation of two proposed projects, both with five-year expected lives and identical initial outlays of $110,000. Both of these projects involeve addition to Caledonia’s highly successful Avalon product line, and as a result, the required rate of return on both projects has been established at 12 percent. The expected free cash flows from each project are as follows:

122 In evaluating these projects, please respond to the following quetsions: a.Why is the capital-budgeting process so important? b.Dtermine the payback, discounted payback, NPV, PI, IRR and MIRR, should they be accepted? c.What would happen to the NPV and PI, if the required rate of return increased? If the required rate of return decreased? d.How does a change in the required rate of return affect the project’s IRR? Project AProject B Initial Outlay-$110,000 Year 120,00040,000 Year 230,00040,000 Year 340,000 Year 450,00040,000 Year 570,00040,000

123 The Dilemma at Day-Pro the Day-Pro Chemical Corporation, established I 1995, has managed to earn a consistently high rate of return on its investments. The scret of its success has been strategic and timely development, manufacturing, and marketing of innovative chemical product that have been used in various industries. Currently, the management of the company is considering the manufacture of a thermosetting resin as packaging material for electronical products. The company’s recearch an development teams have come up produce initially but would have greater economies of scale. At the initial presentation, the project leaders of both teams presented their cash flow projections and provided sufficient documentation in support of their proposals. However. Since the products are mutually exclusive, the firm can only fund one proposal.

124 In order to resolve this dilemma, Tim Palmer, the Assistant Treasurer, and a recent MBA from a prestigious mid- western university, has been assigned the task of analyzing the costs and benefits of the two proposals and presenting his findings to the board of directors. Tim knows that this will be an uphill task, since comes to financial concepts. The Boar has historically had a strong preference for using rates of return as its decision criteria. On occasion it has also used the payback period approach to decide between competing projects. However, Tim is convinced that when net present value (NPV) method is least flawed and when used correctly will always add the most value to a company’s wealth.

125 After obtaining the cash flow projections for each project (see Tables 1 & 2), and crunching out the numbers, Tim realizes that the hill is going to be steeper than he thought. The various capital budgeting techniques, when applied to the two series of cash flows, provide inconsistent results. The project with the higher NPV has a longer payback period, as a lower Accounting rate of Return (ARR) and Internal Rate of return (IRR). Tim scratches his head, wondering how can convince the Board that the IRR, ARR, and payback often lead to incorrect decisions.

126 The day-Pro Chemical Corporation, established I 1995, has managed to earn a consistently high rate of return on its invesments. The scret of its success has been strategic aand timely development, manufacturing, and marketing of innovative chemical products that have been used in various industries. Currently, the management of the company is considering the manufacture of a thermosetting resin as packaging material for electronic products. The company’s Recearch and Development teams have come up presentations and provided sufficient documentation in support of their proposals. However, since the products are mutually exclusive, the firm can only fund one proposal. in order to resolve this dilemma, Tim Palmer, the Assistant Treasurer, and a recent MBA from a presentigious mi-western university, has been assigned task of analyzing the costs and benefits of the two proposals be an uphill task, since the board members are not all on the same page when comes to financial concepts.

127 The Board has historically had a strong preference for using rates of return as its decision creteria. On occasion it has also used the payback period approach to decide between competing projects. Howerer, Tim is convinced that the net present value (NPV) method is least flawed and when used correctly will always add the most value to a company’s wealth. after obtaining the cash flow projections for each project (see Table 1&2) and crunching out the numbers, Tim realizezs that the hill is going to be steeper to the two series of cash flows, provide inconsistent results. The project with the higher NPV has a longer payback period, as well as a lower Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Tim scratches his head, wondering how he can convince the Board that the IRR, ARR, and payback Period can lead to incrorrect decision.

128 Syntetic ResinYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5 Net Income150,000200,000300,000450,000500,000 Depreciation200,000 Net cash flow(1000,000)350,000400,000500,000650,000700,000 Epoxy ResinYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5 Net Income440,000240,000140,00040,000 Depreciation160,000 Net cash flow(800,000)600,000400,000300,000200,000

129 Questions 1.Calculate the payback period of each project. Expalin what argument Tim should make to shaow the payback period is not appropriate is this case. 2.Calculate the Discounted Payback Period (DPP)using 10% as the discount rate. Should the tim ask the board to use DPP as the deciding factor? Explain. 3.Calculate the two project’ IRR. How should Tim convince the Board that the NPV method is the way to go? 4.Explain how Tim can show that the Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) is the more realistic measure to use in the case of mutually exclusive projects 5.Calculate the Profitability for each proposal. Can this measure help to solve the dilemma? Explain.

130 CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CASH FLOW ANALYSIS

131 PROSES PENGANGGARAN MODAL 1.Tentukan biaya proyek 2.Perkirakan aliranb kas yang diharapkan dari proyek, termasuk nilai akhir aktiva 3.Risiko dari lairan kas proyek harus dietimasi. (memakai distribusi probabilitas aliran kas) 4.Dengan mengetahui risiko dari proyek, manajemen harus menentukan biaya modal (cost of capital) yang tepat untuk mendiskon aliran kas proyek 5.Tentukan nilai sekarang aliran kas masuk yang diharapkan digunakan untuk memperkirakan nilai aktiva. 6.Terakhir, nilai sekarang dari lairan kas yang diharapkan dibandingkan dengan biayanya.

132 HAL PENTING DALAM ESTIMASI ALIRAN KAS 1.Keputusan dalam capital budgeting harus didasarkan pada aliran kas setelah pajak. 2.Hanya memeperhatikan incremental cash flow yang relevan. 3.Memperhatikan aliran kas yang timbul karena keptusan investasi, aliran kas dari keputusan pendanaan tidak perlu diperhatikan (ex: bunga, cicilan, deviden) 4.Tidak memasukan sunk cost (biaya yang telah terjadi) 5.Opportunity cost harus diperhitungkan secara tepat dalam analis penganggaran modal.

133 Project Cash Flows Initial outlay. This include the cost of the fixed assets associated with the project plus any initial invesment in net operating working capital, such as raw materials Opertaing cash flow. The operating cash flow is the net operating profit after taxes plus depreciation Terminal cash flow. At the end of the project’s life. Usually generated from: salvage value of the fixed assets, adjusted for taxes if the assets are not sold at their book value, return of net operating working capital

134 Project Cash Flows When deciding whether or not to make an invesment, we must first estimate the cash flows that the invesment will provide  Generally, these cash flows can be categorized as follows:  the initial outlay (IO)  operating cash Flows  The terminal cash flows (TCF) Operating Cash flow Initialterminal Outlaycash flow

135 Sebagai manejer keuangan yang baru ditunjuk di Blooper Industries, Anda akan menganalisis sebuah proposal penambangan dan penjualan biji magnisium kelas satu yang langka. Proyek ini memerlukan investasi $10 juta. Setelah 5 tahun kandungan biji magnesium habis, metode penyusutan adalah garis lurus, dengan nilai buku pada kahir tahun menjadi nol. Pada tahun ke enam peralatan mungkin dapat dijual senilai $2 juta. Untuk itu perusahaan dikenal tagihan pajak pada tahun ke enam senilai 35%+ x $2= $0.70. sehingga arus kas bersih dari penjualan aktiva tahun ke enam adalah $2- $0.7= $1.3 juta. Ramalan modal kerja dari Blooper Industries adalah sbb: Perusahaan memperkirakan mampu menjual pon magnesium per tahun dengan harga $20, harga akan meningkat sesuai dengan tingklat inflasi, beban operasi diperkirakan sebesar 2/3 dari pendapatan. Tingkat inflasi 5%, dari tarif pajak 35%. Tentukan Cash Flows Piutang $0$0 $ $ $ $ $ $0$0 Persediaan M. kerja

136 A. Aktiva Tetap Investasi aset tetap Penjualan asset tetap21,758 Opportunity cost-150,000150,000 Arus kas, investasi aset tetap-250,000171,758 B. Modal Kerja Modal kerja10,000 16,32024,96921,2240 Perubahan modal kerja10,00006,3208, ,224 Arus kas investasi modalkerja-10,0000-6,320-8,6493,74521,224 C. Operasi Pendapatan100,000163,200249,696212,242129,892 Beban operasi50,00088,000145,200133,10087,846 Depresiasi20,00032,00019,20011,520 Laba sebelum pajak30,00043,20085,29667,62230,526 pajak10,20014,68829,00022,99110,526 Laba setelah pajak19,80028,51256,29644,63120,147 Arus kas dari operasi39,80060,51275,49656,15131,667 D. Penilaian Total arus kas proyek-260,00039,80054,19266,84759,896224,649 NPV (DF 12%)5,475

137 Analisis Arus kas Proyek Penggantian PT Tekstil membeli mesin pintal 10 tahun yang lalu dengan $ mesin tersebut memiliki usia ekonomis selama 15 tahun dan sisusutkan dengan metode garis lurus, tanpa nilai sisa. Jadi nilai buku mesin saar ini adalah $ perusahaan merencangkan akan mengganti mesin lama dengan mesin baru. Mesin baru yang sejenis dapat dibeli dengan harga $ , dengan usia ekonomis 5 tahun, disusutkan dengan MACRS. Nilai sisa jika dijual rugi $ pajak perusahaan 40%. Apabila penggantian itu dilakukan dapat menghemat biaya sebesar $ per tahun. Buatlah estimasi cash flow selama 5 tahun. Apakah proyek layak dijalankan, bila biaya dana 20% ThPenyusutanNilai buku 0 $ 120, ,00% x $ 120,000 = 24,000 $ 96, ,00% x $ 120,000 = 38,400 57, ,20% x $ 120,000 = 23,040 34, ,52% x $ 120,000 = 13,824 20, ,52% x $ 120,000 = 13,824 6,912

138 Tabel: Estimasi Arus Kerja keteranganTahun Initial cash flow – Harga mesin baru – Penjulan mesin lama – Tax saving (40%x$15.000) Operating – Penghematan biaya – Dep mesin baru – Dep mesin lama – Tambahan penyusutan – Laba sebelum pajak – Pajak – Laba bersih – Operating cash flow Terminla cash flow – Nilai sisa mesin baru6.912 Proyeksi cash flow NPV (DF 20%)11,404

139 Soal Scoty Corporation pembuat komponen elektronik. Scoty mempertimbangkan untuk mengganti satu mesin perakit yang dioperasikan dengan tangan dengan mesin baru nyang otomatis. Mesin perakit tersebut dibeli 5 thaun yang lalu dengan harga $50,000, umur ekonomis 10 tahun. Harga mesin baru $60,000, usia ekonomis 5 tahun, tanpa nilai sisa Buatlah estimasi cash flows, apakah proyek layak dijlankan bila biaya dana 16% Situasi sekarang (mesin perakit manual) Situasi yang diajukan (mesin perakit otomatis) Gaji operator$25,000Gaji operator0 Biaya perawatan/thn2,000Biaya pemasangan$3,000 Biaya kerusakan/thn6,000Biaya pengiriman$3,000 Depresiasi tahunan5,000Biaya perawatan/thn$3,000 Nilai jual sekarang5,000Biaya kerusakan/thn$3,000 Tingkat pajak34%Usia yang diharapkan5 tahun Nilai jual akhir tahun ke 520,000

140 Tabel: Estimasi Arus Kas KeteranganTahun Initial cash Flow 1.Harga mesin baru ditambha pemasangan & pengiriman 2.Penjualan mesin lama 3.Tax saving 34%(25, ) Operating cash flow 4.Pengurangan gaji operator 5.Pengurangan biaya kerusakan 6.Dep Mesin baru 7.Dep mesin lama 8.Tambahan penyusutan 9.Tambahan biaya perawatan 10.EBT ( ) 11.Pajak (34%) 12.Laba bersih 13.Operating cash flow (12=8) , ,200 1,000 18,800 6,392 12,408 20, , ,200 1,000 18,800 6,392 12,408 20, , ,200 1,000 18,800 6,392 12,408 20, , ,200 1,000 18,800 6,392 12,408 20, , ,200 1,000 18,800 6,392 12,408 20,608 Terminal cash flow 14.Nilai jual mesin baru 15.Pajak: 34%(20,000-0) Proyeksi cash flow -54,20020,608 33,808 NPV (DF 16%) 19,561

141 Problem PT. A sedang mempertimbangkan pembelian panggangan baru yang hemat energi. Panggangan ini berharga $40,000 dan akan disusutkan menurut skedul MACRS 3 tahun. Panggangan ini akan ndijual sebagai besi tua setelah 3 tahun senilai $10,000. panggangan ini tidak berdampak pada penerimaan tapi akan menghemat biaya energi sebesar $20,000. tingkat pajak 35%, dan biaya modal 12%. Apakah panggangan ini seharusnya dibeli?

142 The Unequal Lives Problem There are two ways to correctly deal with the unequal lives problem  The replacement chain approach  The equivalent annual annuity approach Misalkan Anda harus memilih di antara 2 mesin, yang umurnya berbeda, tapi memiliki kapasitas iidentik dan melakukan pekerjaan yang persis sama. Mesin mana yang sebaiknya dipilih ? Biaya (ribuan dolar)PV pada 6% 0123 Mesin A15444$25.69 Mesin B1066$21.00

143 Memilih di antara 2 proyek yang mutually exclusive Jika discount rate = 10% NPV proyek A = $928,11 NPV proyek B = $612,32 EAA untuk proyek A = $ 213,11 EAA untuk proyek B = $246, NPV B1=612,32NPV B2=612,32 PV = ,35 TahunProyek AProyek B 0-$4.000-$

144 Metode Penyusutan Metode garis lurus: metode penyusutan yang mengalokasikan biaya secara merata selama usia penyusutan aktiva Sum of year’s digit method: metode penyusutan dengan penjumlahan angka tahunan Double decline balance method: dengan formulasi 2(1/n) NBV MACRS : dengan menggunakan tabel tarif MACRS berikut:

145 TahunKelas Properti Pemulihan3 tahun5 tahun7 tahun10 tahun 133,33%20,00%14,29%10,00% 244,45%32,00%24,4918,00% 314,81%19,2017,49%14,40% 47,41%11,52%12,49%11,52% 5 8,93%9,22% 65,76%8,93%7,37% 76,55% ,55% 113,28% Total100,00%

146 Capital Rationing (limit set on the amount of funds available for investment) Firms should implement all positive NPV projects  this will maximize shareholder wealth Firms often limi the projects that are considerations Capital Rationing: process of limiting availability of capital dollars

147 Capital Rationing Anggaplah biaya modal 10%, dan perusahaan memiliki sumber daya total $20 juta, saat ini perusahaan dihadapkan pada beberapa proposal proyek sbb: Karena dana terbatas $20 juta, maka Proyek yang dipilih: L,J,M, dan N Jika dana terbatas 10 juta, proyek mana yang dipilih? ProyekArus kas (jutaan dolar)PV (DF10%) Indeks Profitabilitas investasiCF 1CF 2 J - $3$2.2$2.42$4 1/3=0.33 K - $5$2.2$4.84$6 1/5=0.2 L - $7$6.6$4.84$10 3/7=0.43 M - $6$3.3$6.05$8 2/6=0.33 N - $4$1.1$4.84$5 ¼=0.25

148 Capital Rationing Hat company is considering seven capital investment propoasl, for which the funds available are limited to a maximum of $12 million. The projects are independent and have the following cost and profitability index associated with them: Under strict capital rationing, which projects should be selected ? ProjectCostPI A $ 4,000,000 1,18 B3000,0001,08 C5,000,0001,33 D6,000,0001,31 E4,000,0001,19 F6,000,0001,20 G4,000,0001,18

149 Study Problems Jack tar, CFO sheetbend Inc, membuka amplo rahasia perusahaan. Isinya adalah draft tawaran untuk kontrak memasok kanvas ransel pada angkatan Laut AS. Surat memo dari CFO sheetbend meminta mengkaji tawaran itu sebelum diajukan. Tawaran dan dokumen pendukungnya disiapkan oleh staf penjualan sheetbend. Sheetbend diminta memasok yard kanvas ransel selama 5 tahun, dengan harga jual adalah tetap sebesar $30 per yard Tn. Tar tidak biasanya terlibat dalam penjualan. Tapi tawaran ini tidak akan berkomitmen pada Sheetbend dengan kontrak jangka panjang dan harga tetap. Kedua memproduksi kanvas ransel membutuhkan $1.5 Tar mulai bekerja pada akhir minggu mengumpulkan fakta dan asumsi sbb: - Pabrik di Oleasantoro dibangun tahun 1900 an dan sekarang menganggur. Pabrik ini diusutkan penuh di permukaan Sheetbend, kecuali biaya pembelian tanah (19470 senilai $10,000 - Sekarang tanah itu adalah properti pinggir pantai yang bernilai. Tar berfikir tanah dan pabrik yang menganggur itu bisa dijual dalam waktu dekat dengan harga $600,000

150 -Merenovasi pabrik akan berbiaya $500,000. invetasi ini akan diusutka secara garis lurus selama 10 tahun - Mesin baru akan berbiaya $1 juta. Investasi ini bisa diusutkan secara garis lurus selama 5 tahun - Pabrik yang direnovasi dan mesin baru akan berusia bertahun- tahun. Akan tetapi, pasar yang tersisa untuk kanvas ransel itu kecil, dan tidak jelas apakah order tambahan bisa diperoleh begitu kontrak AL berakhir. Mesin ini khusus dan hanya nbisa digunkan untuk kanvas ransel. Nilai jual bekasnya diakhir tahun ke lima mungkin nol. - Modal kerja pada awal tahun adalah $ , dan modal kerja ini diperkirakan 10% dari total pendapatan. - Ramalan laba staf penjualan dari kontrak AL, dapat dilihat pada tabel 1 - Saat ini ada tawaran dari penjualan dari perusahaan pengembang real estate untuk membeli tanah dan pabrik Pleasantboro milik Sheetbend dengan harga $1,5 juta tunai

151 Tabel 1 Dalam Ribuan Apakah Tn. Tar seharusnya merekomendasikan mengajukan tawaran pada AL pada harga proposal $30 per yard?. Tingkat dikonto untuk proyek 12% Penjualan (yard) Harga per yard $30 3. Pendapatan ( $ ) $3, Harga pokok penjualan2,1002,1842,2712,3622, Arus kas operasi (3-4) Penyusutan Laba operasi (5-6) Pajak (35%)227,5198,1167,7135,8102,5 9. Laba bersih (7-8) $422,5 367,9311,3252,2190,5

152 2. PT. “Dallas” sedang mengevaluasi proyek pembelian mesin baru. Harga mesin Rp 175 juta, dengan tambahan biaya pemasangan Rp 25 juta. Usia mesin adalah 5 tahun. Nilai buku mesin pada akhir tahun ke 5 adalah 0, tapi mesin masih dapat dijual sebagi besi tua dengan harga 5 juta. Mesin memerlukan tambahan modal kerja bersih Rp 10 juta, dan dengan penggunaan mesin tersebut dapat menghemat biaya sebelum pajak sebesar Rp 80 juta per tahun. Tingkat pajak adalah 15%. Haruskah mesin dibeli apabila biaya modal PT Dallas adalah 15% ?

153 INTRODUCTION TO RISK IN CAPITAL BUDGETING

154 What measure of risk is relevant in capital budgeting In capital budgeting, a project can be looked at on three levels: 1.Stand-alone risk 2.Corporate risk 3.Systematic risk

155 Stand Alone Risk Mengukur stand-alone risk berarti mengukur ketidakpastian keuntungan atau kepastian arus kas E(CF) = 5.000E(V)= Ơ A=1.095 ƠB=894 Usulan Investasi AUsulan Investasi B ProbabilitasArus kasProbabilitasArus kas 0,103,0000,053,000 0,204,0000,204,000 0,405,0000,505,000 0,206,0000,206,000 0,107,0000,057,000

156 Apabila E(V) dari kedua investasi tidak sama, maka penggunaan Ơ sebagai indikator risiko menjadi sulit dilakukan, untuk itu digunakan coefficient of variation (CV) CV = Ơ/E(V) CD E(V) Ơ CV0,400,33

157 Problem Misalkan saudara diminta untuk memilih salah satu diantara kedua proyek berikut ini: Pertanyaan: a.Dengan menggunakan NPV maksimum yang diharpkan, proyek mana yang saudara pilih? b.Dengan menggunakan coenffidient of variation, proyek mana yang saudara pilih? AB NPVProbNPVProb $ 100 0,30 $ 300 0,30 $ 400 0,40 $ 500 0,40 $ 700 0,30 $ 700 0,30

158 Risiko Proyek Beberapa metode yang bisa digunakan antara lain: a.Analisis Sensitivitas b.Analisis Scenario c.Analisis Pohon Keputusan d.Analisis Berak Even

159 Mean-standard deviation Analysis Dilakukan dengan memasukan arus kas dari setiap kondisi perekonomian, yang akan membentuk probabilitas untuk NPV kemudian menghitung probabilitas untuk NPV tertentu. Pendekatan ini mengasumsikan bahwa arus kas bersifat independen dari waktu ke waktu. Rata-rata (mean) distribusi probabilitas NPV adalah: krf= suku bunga bebas risiko Risiko dari proyek adalah:

160 Mean-standard deviation Analysis krf =10% Kondisi perokonomianArus kas masuk bersih ProbThn 1Thn 2Thn 3Thn 4 Resesi0,25$4.300$4.570$4.400$ Rata-rata0,50$7.302$7.747$7.333$ Baik0,25$9.812$10.400$10.450$ CFT$7.179$7.616$7.397$ Ơ $1.952$2.065$2.139$4.025 NPV =$9.103 Ơ NPV = $54.090

161 Problem perusahaan Anda memperoleh informas arus kas proyek sbb: a.Tentukan expected NPV, dan standard deviasi NPV b.Berapa probabilitas proyek akan menghasilkan NPV=0 Thn 1Thn 2Thn 3 ProbArus kasProbArus kasProbArus kas 0,1$1.0000,2$1.0000,2$ ,2$2.0000,3$2.0000,3$ ,3$3.0000,4$3.0000,4$ ,4$4.0000,1$4.0000,1$4.000 CFT$1.967,5 Ơ NPV$1.518

162 B. Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity analysis involves determinan how the distribution of possible net present values or internal rates of return for a particular project is affected by a change in one particular input variable. This is done by changing the value of one input variable while holding all other input variables constant

163 Example : Ekspansi proyek BQC NPV (12%) = $6.989IRR = 21,9% Bangunan & peralatan$ kenaikan modal kerja6.000 CF from Operation Pendapatan Biaya variable Biaya tetap5.000 Penyusutan Laba sebelum pajak$9.244$8.128$9.168$9.728 Pajak (40%) Laba bersih$5.545$4.877$ Arus kas operasi$7.302$7.749$7.333$7.109 Pengembalian MK6,000 Nilai sisa10,607 Net Cash Flow-$26.000$7.302$7.747$7.333$23.716

164 Keterbatasan Analisis Sentivitas Umumnya risiko stand-alone proyek tergantung pada faktor: a.Sensitivitas NPV terhadap variabel kunci b.Rentang nilai yang mungkin dari variabel tersebut seperti tercermin dalam distribusi probabilitasnay Analisis sensitivitas hanya mempertimbangkan faktor (1), maka analisis tidak lengkap

165 C. Scenario Analysis Project analysis given a particular combination of assumptions NPV yang diharapkan = Pi (NPVi) ơ NPV = SkenarioProbVolume penjualanHarga jualNPV (ribuan $) Terburuk0, unit$1.500-$5.768 Base case0, unit$2.000$6.989 Terbaik0, unit$2.500$ NPV yang diharapkan$7.900 ơ NPV$ CVNPV1,3

166 Shao ondustries is considering a proposed project for its capital budget. The company estimayes that the project’s NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that the company and market conditions will average over the next few years. The company’s CFO, howerer, forecast that there is only a 50 percent chance that the economy will be average. Reconizing this uncertainty, she has also performed the following scenario analysis. What is the project’s expected NPV, standard deviantion and coefficient of variantion. Economic scenarioProbability of outcomeNPV Recession0,05 ( $ 70 million) Bellow average0,20 ( $ 25million) Average0,50 $ 12 million Above average0,20 $ 20 million Boom0,05 $ 30 million

167 D. Analisis Pohon Keputusan Digunakan untuk mengevaluasi proyek-proyek yang memiliki beberapa titik pembuatan keputusan. Arus kas dan probabilitasnya digambarkan dalam suatu diagram pohon yang disebut dengan pohon keputusan. Kemudian probabilita gabungan dari setiap cabang dikalikan dengan NPV dari cabang tersebut dan hasilnya dijumlahkan untuk memperoleh expected NPV

168

169 = Ơ NPV = =

170 E. Break Even Analysis Example given the forecasted data on the next slide, determine the number of olanes that the company must produce in order to break even, on an NPV basis. The company’s cost of capital is 10%.

171 Break Even Analysis Year 0 years 1-6 Investment $ Sales15.5xPlans Sold Var. cost8.5xPlanes Sold Fixed Costs175 Depreciation900/6=150 Pretax Profit(7xPlanes Sold) Taxes (50%)(3.5x Planes Sold) – Net Profit (3.5x Planes Sold) – Net Cash Flow – 900 (3.5x Planes Sold) – 12.5

172 Break Even Analysis Answer (Accounting) the break even point, is the # of Planes sold were the fixed costs and depreciation = $0. Atau Break even akuntasi tidak memperhitungkan opportunity cost investasi awal $900, meskipun terjadi break even sebenarnya perusahaan masih rugi secara ekonomis, Manajer keuangan bisa menghitung Break even dengan memasukan Present value aliran kas. 0 = - (3.5 x Planes Sold – 162.5) Planes Sold = 165.5/3.5 = 46.4 planes Break even = FC + Depreciation Price/unit – variable cost/init

173 Break Even Analysis Answer (finance) the break even point, is the # of Planes sold that generates a NPV= $0 the present value annuity factor of a 6 year cash flow at 10% is thus, NPV = (3.5 x Planes Sold – 12.5 )

174 Break Even Analysis Answer solving for “Planes Sold” Planes Sold = 63 0 = (3.5 x Planes Sold – 12.5 )

175 Problem Misalkan perusahaan mencoba menganalisis ususlan investasi. Investasi awal Rp juta, umur 5 tahun, tingkat diskonto 20%. Perhitungan aliran kas setiap tahun sbb: Pertanyaan : tentukan Break even akuntansi, dan Present Value Break Even? Aliran kas Penjualan (1000 unit)Rp2.000 juta Biaya variabel (30%)600Juta Biaya tetap800 juta Penyusutan200 juta Total biaya1.600 juta Laba sebelum pajak400 juta Laba setelah pajak160 juta Aliran kas240 juta

176 Methods for incrorporationg risk into capital budgeting 1.Certainly Equaivalent 2.Risk-Adjusted discount rates

177 Certanty Equivalent (CE) Memasukan risiko dalam perhitungan arus kas Konsep CE dapat diterapkan dalam capital budgeting dengan cara: a.Perkirakan CE dari kas setiap tahun berdasarkan arus kas yang diharapkan pada tahun tersebut dan risikonya b.Gunakan tingkat bunga bebas risiko (rf) untuk menghitung NPV proyek CE =  t ACFt  = arus kas yang pasti arus kas yang diharapkan

178 Contoh Suatu perusahaan dengan tingkat pengembalian yang diinginkan sebesar 10%, sedang membangun sebuah fasilitas penelitian baru dengan umur 5 tahun. Pengeluaran awal proyek $ arus kas masuk yang diharapkan serta koenfisien tingkat kepastian setara adalah sebagai berikut: Hitung NPV proyek: NPV = – (1+10) 1 (1+10) 2 (1+10) 3 (1+10) 4 (1+10) 5 NPV =$19.902,5 TahunArus kas yang diharapkan tt CE 1$ ,95$ , , , ,

179 Norohna Inc, mempertimbangkan 2 proyek yang mutually exclusive. Nilai yang diharapkan dari arus kas proyek tersebut adalah sbb: Jika tingkat bebas risiko setelah pajak adalah 8%, proyek mana yang dipilih? TahunProyek AProyek B tt tt 0 - $ , ,950, ,900, ,850, ,800, ,750,50

180 Risk-Adjusted discount Rates The use of the risk-adjusted discount rate based on the concept that investor demand higher returns for more risky projects If the risk associated with the invesment is greater than the risk involved in a typical endeavor, then the discount rate is adjusted upward to compenaste for this risk Expenssed mathematically the net present value using the risk- adjusted discount rate becomes NPV  h ACFt - I o t=1 (1+ i*)t Where ACFt = the annual after-tax cash flow in time period I0 = the initial outlay i*= the risk adjusted discount rate n = the project’s expected life

181 Contoh:Risk-Adjusted discount Rates Hokie corporation mempertimbangkan 2 proyek mutually exlusive. Masing-masing proyek mensyaratkan pengeluaran awal $ dan akan beroperasi selama 5 tahun. Distribusi probabilitas tiap proyek untuk tahun 1 hingga tahun 5 sbb: Oleh karena proyek B yang lebih berisiko, maka manajemen memutuskan untuk menerapkan tingkat pengembalian 15% pada evaluasinya, dan hanya 12% untuk proyek A. tentukan NPV masing-masing proyek. NPV A =$8.024 NPV B = $ Proyek AProyek B ProbArus kasProbArus kas 0,15 $ ,15 $ ,70 $ ,70 $ ,15 $ ,15 $10.000

182 Risk-adjusted discount rates Biaya modal perusahaan secara keseluruhan adalah 15%. Perusahaan menentukan jika proyek yang dianalisis memiliki risiko yang relatif sama dengan proyek-proyek lain perusahaan pada umumnya, atau memiliki Risiko sama dengan rata-rata, i* = 15% (NPV=?) Jika di atas rata-rata, premi risiko sebesar 5%, i* = 20%, NPV? Jika di bawah rata-rata, premi risiko = - 5%. i*= 10%, NPV? TahunArus kas yang diharapkan 0(2juta) 11juta

183 Corporate risk Risiko dalam perusahaan atau corporate risk adalah kontribusi proyek terhadap risiko total perusahaan, atau dampak proyek terhadap variabilitas arus kas perusahaan secara keseluruhan Corporate risk merupakan fungsi dari deviasi standar proyek dan korelasi antara keuntungan proyek dengan keuntungan perusahaan Corporate risk diukur dengan bP,F = within-firm risk atau corporate risk ơp = deviasi standar keuntungan proyek ơF = deviasi standar keuntungan perusahaan rPF = koefisien korelasi antara keuntungan proyek dengan keuntungan perusahaan bP,F = ( ơp/ơF).rp.F

184 Systematic risk atau market risk Risiko pasar atau beta risk adalah risiko suatu proyek dilihat dari konteks atau sudut pandang investor yang memiliki portofolio saham atau kontibusi proyek terhadap risiko portofolio Risiko pasar dapat diukur dengan menghitung beta pasar proyek atau project marker beta Beta proyek dapat dihitung dengan cara: a.meregresi keuntungan proyek dengan keuntungan portofolio pasar (sebagai variabel bebas) b.menggunakan beta dari perusahaan lain yang memiliki bisnis yang sama denganproyek yang dianalisis

185 Minicase PT. AGA sedang mempertimbangkan pemeblian traktor yang akan menelan biaya sebesar Rp 100 juta, akan meningkatkan arus kas operasi sebelum pajak (tidak termasuk efek depresiasi) sebesar RP 40 juta setahun. Truk akan didepresiasi dengan metode garis lurus tanpa niali sisa. Pajak adalah 15%, dan biaya modal perusahaan mengenai usia traktor. Secara khusus Elizabeth meyakinkan bahwa ia tahu banyak tentang traktor yang hanya mampu bertahun 4 tahun saja. Philip setuju dengan pendapat Elizabeth, tapi ia mengatakan ada beberapa traktor yang dapat bertahan sampai 5 tahun. Laura berkata bahwa ia ada bebrapa traktor dapat bertahan samapai 8 tahun. Direktur perusahaan terpaksa menengahi perdebatan tersebut. Untuk tidak mengecewakan manajernya maka ia memutuskan untuk mempertimbangkan pendapat ke tiga manajer tersebut dengan membuat analisis scenario. Ia memberikan probabilitas 70% bahwa usia traktor 5 tahun, 20% bahwa usai traktor 4 tahun, dan 10% bahwa usia traktor 8 tahun. Apakah propoasl proyek pembelian traktor ini dapat diterima?

186 Cost of Capital

187 Objective : to get a better understanding of how a company calculates and employs the cost of capital in making invesment decisions

188 Cost of Capital (biaya modal) Short term debt Cost of debt (kd) Long term debt COC Preferred stock Common stock Cost of Equity (Ke) New common stock Retained earning

189 Cost of Capital Biaya modal adalah: biaya yang harus ditanggung untuk mendapatkan modal baik yang berasal dari utang, saham, preferen, saham biasa atau laba ditahan. Biaya modal akan tercermin pada tingkat keuntungan yang disyaratkan oleh masing- masing pemodal

190 Cost of Capital (biaya modal) Manfaat biaya modal dalam manajemen keuangan: 1.Dipakai sebagai discount rate dalam perhitungan NPV 2.Dipakai sebagai tingkat keuntungan minimal jika metode IRR digunakan untuk mengevaluasi propoasl investasi

191 Menghitung biaya modal Biaya modal harus dihitung berdasarkan suatu basis setelah pajak (after tax basis) Masing-masing sumber dana memiliki biaya modal yang berbeda Perhitungan biaya modal dilakukan secara –Individual –Keseluruhan dengan menggunakan biaya modal rata-rata tertimbang (weighted average cost of capital)

192 1. Biaya Utang (Cost of Debt) Biaya utang (kd) merupakan besarnya biaya yang harus ditanggung oleh perusahaan karena menggunkan dan yang berasal dari pinjaman, yang tercermin pada tingkat keuntungan yang disyaratkan oleh pemberi pinjaman. PN = penerimaan bersih, B= bunga, P= Nilai nominal, nn= Periode waktu

193 Contoh 1L Andaikan seorang investor bersedia membayar Rp. 900/lembar untuk suatu obligasi (surat hutang). Surat berharga tersebut memiliki nilai nominla sebesar RP 1000/lembar, dengan bunga tahunan 8%, dan jangka waktu pelunasan 10 tahun. Pajak 30%. Berpa biaya obligasi tersebut? Kd=9,6% Jika dikeluarkan komisi broker (flotation cost) Rp 50, maka penerimaan bersih Rp 850, berapa biaya obligasi tersebut? Kd =10,5% Jika obligasi terjual seharga nilai nominla kd = 8%

194 Contoh 2 Assume that basket Wonders (BW) has $1,000 per value zero- coupon bonds ountstanding. BW bonds are currently trading at $ with 10 years to mutually. BW tax bracket is 40% $0 + $1,000 $ = (1 + kd) 10 (1 + kd)10= $1,000/$ (1 + kd)= (2.5938) (1/10) kd = 1 or 10%

195 2. The cost of capital for preferred stock Biaya modal saham preferen adalah tingkat keuntungan yang disyaratkan oleh pemegang saham preferen Biaya saham preferen adalah dividen saham preferen tahunan dibagi hasil penjualan saham preferen. D ps K ps = P net

196 Contoh PT damai menegluarkan 10% (deviden tahunan) saham preferen dengan nilai nominal Rp per lembar. Biaya penerbitan dan penjualan diperkirakan 5%. Berapa biaya saham preferen? jawab: kp = 1000/9500 = 10,52% Perusahaan menjual saham preferen yang memberikan dividen $10 per thaun. Harga saham $100, dengan biaya flotation cost $2,5 per lembar saham. Berapa saham preferen?

197 use this Formula 0.1 ( $100) = $ $2.0 $10 = = =9.0% $ What the cost of prefern stock? P p =$113,10; 10% Q; Par = $100; F =$2 D ps K ps = P net

198 3. The cost of capital for common equity Common equity: a.Retained Earnings b.New Common Stock

199 Why is there a cost for retained earnings? Earnings can be reinvested or paid out as dividends Investor could buy other securities, earn a return Thus, there is an opportunity cost if earnings are eran on alternative investments of equal risk They could buy similar stocks its own stock and company could repurchase its owen stock and earn K s. So, K s is the cost of retained earnings.

200 3. Biaya laba ditahan Biaya modal sendiri yang berasal dari laba ditahan merupakan tingkat keuntungan yang disyaratkan oleh investor modal sendiri.

201 Three ways to determine cost of retained earnings, ks: 1.CAPM: ks = kRF + (kM – ckRF) . 2.DCF : ks = D1/P0 + g 3.Own-Bond-Yield-Plus-Risk premium : ks = kd + RP.

202 Cost of retained earnings based on the CAPM Following information is known: - K RF = 70% - MRP = 6% ks + kRF + (kM – kRF)  ks = 7% (6%) 1,2 ks = 14,2%

203 The cost of retained earnings based on the DCF-method Use the DCF formula, when the following information is known - D o = $ P o =$50 - g=5%.

204 The cost of retained earnings based on the DCF-method K s = D 1 + g = D o (1+g) + g P o P o = $4.19(1.05) $50 = = 13.8%

205 Find K s using the own-bond-yield-plus-risk- premimum method (K d =10%, RP = 4%) ks = kd + RP ks = 10.0% = 14.0%

206 What’s a reasonable final estimate of K s MethodEstimate CAMP14.2% DCF13.8% K d + RP 14.0% Average14.0%

207 4. Biaya modal saham biasa baru Biaya modal saham biasa baru lebih tinggi dibandingkan biaya modal laba ditahan, hal ini dikarenakan adanya biaya penerbitan saham baru (flotation cost) K e = D 1 + g P o - F Keterangan: P o =Harga saham biasa saat ini D 1 =Dividen yang diharapakan tahun mendatang Ke = Tingkat keuntungna yang disyaratkan oleh pemodal saham biasa g=Tingkat pertumbuhan dividen F=Biaya penerbitan saham

208 The cost of capital for new common stock Use the DCF formula, when the following information is known: – D o = $4.19 – P o = $50 – g = 5% – Flotation costs = 15% Remember, flotation reduce the revenus for the issuing firm, thus lower P o.

209 New common stock, F = 15% k e = D o (1 + g) + g P o (1 – F) = $4.19(1.05) + 5.0% $50(1 – 0.15) = $ % = 15.4% $42.50

210 Flotation adjustment: ke – ks = 15.4% % = 1.6% Add the 1.6% flotation adjustment to average ks = 14% to find average ke Ke = ks + flotation adjustment Ke = 14% + 1.6% = 15.6%

211 Calculating the WACC Calculating the WACC, when a company finances with 30% debt, 10% preferred stock and 60% common equity The formula for the WACC is WACC = w d k d (1 – T) + w ps k ps + w ce K s First use only the retained earnings component of common equity (w ce )

212 What’s WACC using only retained earnings for equity component of WACC 1 WACC = wdkd (1 –T) + wpskps + wceks) = 0.3 (10%)(0.6) + 0.1(9%) = 0.6)14%) = 1.8% + 0.9% + 8.4% = 11.1% = cost per $1 financed until retained earnings used up

213 The capital structure for the bias corporation follows. The company plans to maintain its debt structure in the future. If the firm has a 6 percent after tax cost of debt, a 13.5 percent cost of preferered stock, and a 19 percent cost of common stock. What is the firm’s weighted cost of capital? Capital structure ( $ 000) Bond $ 1,100 Preferred stock250 Common stock3,700 $ 5,050

214 Bias Corporation – weighted cost of capital Capital structure WeightsIndividual cost Weighted cost Bond $1,100 0,21786%1,31% Preferred stock $250 0,049513,5%0,67% Common stock $3,700 0,732719,0%13,92% $5,050 15,9%

215 Problem Target struktur modal perusahaan adalah 30% hutang, 10% saham preferen, dan 60% modal sendiri (yang seluruhnya berasal dari laba ditahan). Biaya hutang 12%, biaya saham preferen 12,6%, dan biaya laba ditahan 16,5%. Pajak 40%. Tentukan WACC? Struktur modal untuk perusahaan “Crayon” adalah sbb. Perusahaan berencana untuk mempertahankan struktur utangnya di amsa mendatang. Jika perusahaan memiliki 5,5% biaya utang setelah pajak, 13,5% biaya saham preferen, dan 18% biaya saham biasa. Tentukan WACC? Obligasi $ Saham preferen Saham biasa Total

216 Marginal cost of capital MCC merupakan biaya untuk memperoleh rupiah tambahan sebagai modal baru. Membuat skedul MCC membutuhkan informasi mengenai – Biaya modal (WACC) dari penggunaan alternatif modal sendiri, laba ditahan dan sahaam biasa baru. – Titik peningkatan MCC (break point): merupakan titik meningkatnya WACC perusahaan karena semua laba ditahan telah digunakan dalam pendanaan. Break point = laba ditahan proporsi modal sendiri

217 Contoh: Suatu perusahaan membutuhkan modal baru sebanyak 500 juta. Struktur modal yang hendak dicapai adalah 30% hutang, 10% dari saham preferen dan 60% dari modal sendiri berupa laba ditahan atau saham biasa baru. Biaya 12,6%; 16% dan 16,8%. Perusahaan berharap dapat menahan laba Rp 100 juta. Buatlah skedul MCC untuk modal baru ini.

218 Contoh : WACC jika menggunkan laba ditahan = 0,3x8,4% + 0,1x12,6% + 0,6x16% = 13,38% WACC jika menggunakan saham biasa baru = 0,3x8,4% + 0,1x12,6% + 0,6x16,8% = 13,86% Break point = 100 juta/0, ,67 juta pada saat dana baru yang digunakan mencapai Rp 166,67 juta, maka perusahaan telah menggunakan seluruh laba ditahan. Setelah jumlah ini, maka perusahaan harus menerbitkan saham biasa.

219 Skedul MCC WACC WACC=13,86 MCC WACC=13,38 Modal baru 166,67 juta

220 Skedul MCC dengan depresiasi Melanjutkan soal sebelumnya, misalkan diketahui bahwa perusahaan memiliki dana dari depresiasi sebesar 50 juta. Sekdul MCC akan menjadi WACC= 13,86% MCC WACC= 13,38 216,67 juta 50 juta A B A.Adalah titik dimana seluruh dana depresiasi telah dipakai habis B.Adalah titik dimana seluruh laba ditahan telah dipakai habis

221 Investment Opportunities Schedule/IOS IOS adalah suatu grafiuk yang menggambarkan proyek-proyek yang potensial dalam suatu urutan berdasarkan ranking IRR proyek tersebut Contoh: Misalkan PT.XX memiliki beberapa kesempatan investasi yang terbaik (pengembalian tertinggi) sapai yang terburuk (pengembalian terendah) seperti table berikut: Proyek manakah yang dipilih

222 SKEDUL KESEMPATAN INVESTASI Kesempatan Investasi Tingkat Pengembalian Internal (IRR) Investasi Awal Investasi Kumulatif A15,0% B14,5% C14,0% D13,0% E12,0% F11,5% G10,0%

223 SKEDUL KESEMPATAN INVESTASI IRR 15% IRR 14% A IRR 13 B IRR 12 C IRR 12,1% MCC 11 D IRR 10 E F IRR IOS G Proyek yang layak dipilih adalah proyek: A, B, C, D, E karena IRR > MCC proyek.

224 Soal PT Sentosa sedang menyusun anggaran untuk tahun mendatang. PT sentosa memperkirakan laba bersih Rp 75juta, dan dividen payout ratio (DPR) adalah 40%. Dana dari deprisiasi diperkirakan Rp 30 juta. Penghasilan dan dividen perusahaan diperkirakan tumbuh secara konstan sebesar 5%/tahun. Dividen saat ini adalah Rp 90, dan harga pasar saham saat ini Rp 859. bunga kredit baru dari bank adalah 14%. Biaya emisi saham baru 20%. Struktur modal yang optimal adalah 60% modal senidri dan 40% hutang. Pajak 40% PT Sentosa memiliki kesempatan investasi proyek yang bersifat independen, sbb:

225 Buatlah anggaran modal yang optimal ProyekBiayaIRR A150 JUTA17% B200 JUTA14% C150 JUTA16% D120 JUTA15%

226 JAWAB Laba ditahan = 75 juta-40% (75juta)= 45juta Biaya laba ditahan : ks = D1/P o + g = 90(1+0,05) +0,05 =18,75% 859 Biasa saham biasa baru = 90 (1 + 0,05) + 0,05 = 18,75% 859 (1-0,2) WACC 1 = 12,96% WACC 2 = 14,61% (jika menggunakan saham biasa baru) Breka point = 45/0,6 = 75 juta Karena ada depresiasi 30 juta, maka break point = 105 juta

227 % IRR 17% AIRR C IRR 14,61% MCC IRR 12,96%D IOS B Proyek A, C dan D diterima. Anggaran modal optimal= 420 juta

228 SOAL 1. PT ABC ingin melakukan ekspansi dalam situasi yang cukup sulit seperti sekarang ini. Dari perhitungan biaya modal rata-rata diketahui bahwa semakin tinggi kebutuhan dana, maka akan meningkatkan cost of capital. Sumber dana berasal dari modal sendiri sebesar 40%, pinjaman bank 35% dan 25% berasal dari penerbitan obligasi. Berikut ini adalah table cost of capital untuk masing- masing interval kebutuhan dana.

229 Cost of capital Interval kebutuhan dan (miliyar RP)Cost of capital ,0% ,5% ,0% ,5% ,5% >16018,5

230 Setelah dilakukan studi kelayakan, diperoleh informasi bahwa tingkat keuntungan dari 6 proyek tersebut adalah: Proyek manakah yang layak dilaksanakan? Dan berapa anggaran modal yang optimal? ProyekIRRInvestasi awal (miliyar RP) Pengalengan sayur15,520 Palm oil13,550 Rumah makan19,015 Hotel16,530 Pabrik sepatu14,035 Bisnis eceran18,020

231 2. PT “Angkasa” memiliki struktur modal sbb: Perusahaan mengharapkan kenutungan bersih , -tahun ini. DPR 25%, pajak 40%, dan investor mengharapkan pendapatan dan individen tumbuh 9% dimasa mendatang. Tahun lalu perusahaan membayar dividen 3.600,-(D o =3600), dan saat ini harga saham ,- per lembar. Suku bunga bebas risiko adalah 11%, dan suatu saham rata-rata memberikan rate of return yang diharapkan sebesr 14%. Beta saham PT Angkasa adalah 1,5. saham baru memiliki flotation cost 10% Saham preferen dapat dijual ke publik dengan harga ,- per lembar, dengan dividen ,-. Flotation cost 5.000,- per lembar. Hutang dapat dijual dengan membayar bunga sebesar 12% Hutang25% Saham preferen15% Saham biasa60% Total100%

232 Pertanyaan 1.Hitung biaya modal dari: hutang, saham preferen, laba ditahn, dan saham biasa baru 2.Tentukan Retained Earning Break Point 3.Tentukan WACC dengan menggunakan laba ditahan, dan WACC dengan menggunakan saham biasa baru. 4.Gambarkan skedul MCC 5.Misalkan PT Angkasa meramalkan bahwa biaya depresiasi untuk periode yang direncanakan adalah ,-. Bagaimana ini mempengaruhi skedul MCC?


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