Module 4: Teknik-Teknik Penilaian Kerentanan Approximate time: 3 hours This module focuses on assessing vulnerability, which is the next stage after scoping. Assessing vulnerability to climate change is important for defining the risks posed by climate change. It enables practitioners and decision-makers to identify the most vulnerable areas, sectors, and groups. This in turn allows adaptation options to be targeted at specific contexts. The purpose of this module is two-fold. First, we want to demonstrate a framework for conducting vulnerability assessments in your jurisdiction that can be used to describe primary areas of vulnerability in your CCAR-DRR plan. Second, we want to establish a procedure for conducting future vulnerability assessments that can be included in the CCAR-DRR plan as well. This procedure will help to establish a standard, transparent, accountable, and participatory method for conducting vulnerability assessments. 27 Mei, 2015

Dari Modul 3… Eksposur—Sensitivitas—Kapasitas Adaptif—Dampak—Kerentanan Pertimbangan “Scoping” untuk proses APIK-PRB Siapa akan dilibatkan dalam proses? Siapa akan mengelola prosesnya? Apa sumber SDM, keuangan, dll? Apa prinsip prinsip untuk memandu prosesnya? Telah membangun sebuah kerangka umum untuk pelaksanaan proses APIK-PRB ditingkat Kota dan Kabupaten

Dalam modul ini kami diskusi tentang… Apa tahap tahap untuk menentukan kerentanan bencana dan dampak perubahan iklim? Teknik-teknik apa yang digunakan untuk mengadakan penilaian kerentanan? Bagaimana cara mengukur eksposur, sensitivitas, adaptive kapasitas, dan kerentanan? Apa aspek kerentanan yang paling penting dalam kota/kabupaten anda? Dan apa cara yang paling cocok untuk menentukan kerentanan di sana? 1. We will walk through a step by step framework for conducting vulnerability assessments. There are a number of techniques for conducting vulnerability assessments. These can be broadly categorized into “top-down” approaches, which include Global Climate models that are useful for projecting future vulnerability, and “bottom up” approaches which rely on local information to assess current vulnerability. The most effective vulnerability assessment will combine elements of both top down and bottom up approaches. In fact, in the last module we actually began a top-down approach by looking at climate change impacts for our localities. In general, top down approaches help you understand what you are vulnerable to, and bottom up approaches help you understand how you are vulnerable. Measurement is a tricky issue for some of these variables. For example, vulnerability is a theoretical concept that can’t be directly measured or observed, so instead of measuring vulnerability directly, we have to figure out a way of mapping vulnerability to observable concepts. In other words, we have to find indicators for vulnerability. In the last module we discussed some of those indicators: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

Dimana posisi kita dalam proses? Mengidentifikasi ancaman perubahan iklim Melakukan scoping Menilai kerentanan terhadap perubahan iklim Mengembangkan opsi-opsi pembangunan ketangguhan Menilai opsi-opsi ketangguhan Mengembangkan pemantauan dan sistem evaluasi “Pengarus-utamaan” ketangguhan perubahan iklim

Bagian 1: Penilaian Dampak dan Kerentanan This is the next step in the process.

Pertanyaan Kunci: Bagaimana memastikan proses penilaian kerentanan sesuai dengan prinsip transparansi, partisipatif, dan akuntabilitas Pada level apa anda akan melakukan penilaian kerentanan? Apa alat dan cara yang paling cocok untuk menilai kerentanan menurut anda? Apa yang memicu kerentanan dalam komunitas anda? These questions are somewhat self explanatory and somewhat rhetorical. Go over them one at a time to see if the participants have any comments. Participation and involvement of stakeholders is important for a variety of reasons, including the following: --it helps to achieve the overall objective of the vulnerability assessment --Helps collect relevant data --Helps to refine the scope and focus of the assessment --Facilitates the sharing ideals --Facilitates the dissemination of findings --Sensitizes stakeholders on possible climate change impacts, as well as on adaptation strategies.

Tahap-tahap proses kerentanan dan adaptasi Ada banyak cara dan pendekatan untuk menentukan kerentanan, tetapi secara umum, kita bisa menggunakan pendekatan tahap-tahap sebagai berikut: Tahap 1: Mengenal Ancaman Utama Tahap 2: Memperkirakan Eksposur penduduk, wilayah, dan prasarana Tahap 3: Memperkirakan Sensitivitas penduduk, wilayah, dan prasarana Tahap 4: Menentukan Dampak (eksposur x sensitivitas) Tahap 5: Memperkirakan Kapasitas adaptif Tahap 6: Menetukan Kerentanan (dampak dikurangi kapasitas adaptif) Tahap 7: Memprioritaskan Kerentanan dan pendekatan untuk mengurangi kerentanan Before the activity begins the facilitator will give a broad overview. Each of the bullets will come in individually. Quickly go over the steps of the vulnerability assessment. We are going to be following it up with more slides and maps, but the facilitator should make the point that there are a number of different, but similar, ways to do vulnerability assessments. The facilitator should also make the point that the vulnerability assessment will require some more background information than we have available to us, but that it should be a participatory process. This activity gives us an overview about how to do it though.

Here is an example of a profile from Makassar’s vulnerability assessment

Here is another part of the introduction from the Makassar vulnerability assessment. This shows demographic characteristics.

This is a slightly more sophisticated analysis from the Makassar vulnerability assessment that shows land cover change over a 2-decade period in the watershed of the Jeneberang River. This type of analysis is useful for understanding ongoing trends, and how they impact the environment.

Makassar’s vulnerability assessment also includes ongoing and planned development projects, including a ring road, monorail, water treatment. These types of facilities are necessary, but could potentially be vulnerable to climate-enhanced disasters. In many cases, future development doesn’t take into consideration current disasters, or future impacts of climate change. This is a major weakness of planning processes in many parts of the world, including the us, however, disaster managers have lots of skills and expertise that are useful in the planning process

Tahap 1: Mengenal Ancaman Primer Ask the participants first — if they don’t come up with some ideas, prompt them with these. We know which ones are the higher priority ones in general, but maybe not in their particular case. We could ask them to do this as a group exercise, and/or they map the biggest threats in their town or region. Floods Changes in water body levels (up or down) Sea level rise or saltwater intrusion Droughts Fire Earthquakes Heat Waves or Cold Snaps Crop Failures New or expanded disease vectors Mass migration Next Ask the participants to place these threats in order. After they have completed this step, ask them to think about and discuss why they have prioritized things the way they have, and how do they know they are correct. Point out any differences of opinion that appeared when the participants were placing the threats in order, and highlight the reasons why this differences of opinion would appear. Activity: Here the participants will complete worksheet 4, Identifying the Main threats

In Kupang, assessing hazards relied on information from the community.

In Makassar, identification of primary threats involved examining hydrometeorological data. This is often available locally.

In mondulkiri Cambodia, they identified the hazards, drivers, warning signs, speed of onset. Frequency, time that they are likely to happen, and duration. In some instances you may want to rank the hazards. The bottom picture is a system for ranking hazards that is in common use in the US.

Dimana mendapatkan informasi tepat tentang ancaman perubahan iklim? Portal World Bank tentang Pengetahuan Perubahan Iklim http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm Laporan IPCC AR5 http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ UNFCCC NAPAs http://unfccc.int/adaptation/workstreams/national_adaptation_programmes_of_action/items/2679.php Allow participants to come up with ideas, but supplement them with the following if they aren’t brought up: 1) World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal 2) IPCC AR5, 3) Country Profiles available from UNFCCC NAPAs page or Communication page. Sources shown on the slide are among the most useful, easily accessible and widely known, but there are many others... More locally, refer to historical data concerning traumatic events, according to local resident or experts. Etc…

Alat untuk menganalisa kerentanan yang bersifat “top-down” Penilaian “top down” berdasarkan ilmu pengetahuan Termasuk dasar kondisi iklim Menggabungkan proyeksi model Global dan Nasional dengan sektor yang lebih spesifik Ekosistem, pertanian, kesehatan Contoh. TEM, MC1, MiASMA, DENSiM In scoping we began the vulnerability assessment process by gathering information about the socio-economics and climate situation of our communities. This part of the vulnerability assessment helps us understand what we are vulnerable to and provides a context for further planning The state of development and socio-economic indicators contains data things like the following: --Demographic profile --Livelihood profile --Human health status --Interhousehold dynamics --Governance and institutional context --Key development issues The climate portion will include not only projections, but also local meteorological data including observed climate (this is generally over a 30 year period), the impact of climate on the system of interest, an assessment of the current responses to climate variability, and an overall assessment of vulnerability. Your assessment should also include the following: --How high is the inter-annual variability of climate variables? --What is the frequency, intensity, timing, and duration of extreme events? --What are the observed key climatic hazards? --Are there trends? After the baseline assessment is completed, the effects of climate change can be estimated. It is at this stage that you will use future projections to assess how future climate variability could impact your community. Key questions here will include --What is the projected change in key climatic variables --What is the projected change in extreme events? --What are the uncertainties? Then you can incorporate sector-specific information to assess how climate change could impact specific areas of importance in your community, including agriculture, health, fisheries, ecosystems. There are many sector-specific models that can likely be applied by sector experts in your kota/kabupaten government. Some examples include --ORYZA, a rice growth model developed by IRRI. https://sites.google.com/a/irri.org/oryza2000/home --IRAS, the Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation --MIKE Basin, an ArcGIS compatible product that provides hydrologic modelling at the basin scale --COSMO, the Coastal Zone Simulation Model, a decision support model that allows coastal zone managers to evaluate management strategies and vulnerability --DENSiM, a model that looks at dengue fever using heat to estimate the impact of climate change --MiASMA, a computer model that simulates several health impacts of global atmospheric change and includes simulations for vector borne diseases, thermal heat mortality, and UV-related skin cancer --MC1 models changes in biogeography, biochemistry, and fire disturbance --TEM, the Terrestrial Ecosystem mode which describes carbon and nitrogen dynamics of plants and soics for terrestrial ecosystems. Many other tools are available from the UNFCCC’s searchable database called the Compendium on Methods and Tools to Evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change. http://unfccc.int/adaptation/nairobi_work_programme/knowledge_resources_and_publications/items/5457.php The guide shown was produced by the German Development Agency (GIZ) and published in 2014. It provides a great deal of guidance for vulnerability assessments but also provides an excellent overview of some top-down tools and resources. The guide can be downloaded at https://weadapt.org/knowledge-base/vulnerability/climate-change-vulnerability-assessments Download at https://weadapt.org/knowledge-base/vulnerability/climate-change-vulnerability-assessments

Sumber informasi kunci tentang eksposur, sensitivitas, dan kapasitas adaptif Wawancara dengan informan kunci (e.g. pengelola bencana, perencana kota, ahli sosio-ekonomi) Kelompok masyarakat Lembaga swadaya masyarakat dan organisasi masyarakat sipil (LSM / ORMAS) Persatuan sektor swasta Peneliti universitas dan lembaga penelitian Dokumen sensus dan perencanaan, peta zona tempat rentan banjir, dll. Before moving on to Section “B” of the activity, address the following point. Though we are mapping exposure based on projections of sea level rise, assessing exposure for other threats might not be as straightforward. Therefore it will be necessary to rely upon other sources of information when conducting your actual vulnerability assessment. Ask the participants what types of variables might confound exposure mapping or render it less than accurate. Then ask them for potential sources of information or techniques that might help make the exposure map more accurate. The next step is to gauge the sensitivity of the assets/groups/areas to each level of inundation. Review the concept of sensitivity; a useful definition comes from the CAM framework: “Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g. a change in crop yield in response to a change in mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g. damage caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise). Although we have provided a very simple sensitivity metric for this activity, it is important that the facilitator point out that a robust description of the sensitivity of different assets is extremely important in developing an accurate and useful description of vulnerability. This is due to the fact that different groups, assets, and areas have different levels of sensitivity to threats, even if the exposure is the same. Also underscore the concept that sensitivity is different from impacts. Sensitivity refers to the degree of potential change in a system caused by the change in one variable. To illustrate this point, bring in the first image, which shows yields of a particular variety of rice as affected by temperature. There are two lines, the solid one indicates a CO2 enriched atmosphere. The point of this is to show an example of sensitivity to temperature. This is not impacts. Then bring in the second graphic, which shows sensitivity of 3 different crops to changes in evapotranspiration. These three crops have different levels of sensitivity to the changing variable. Then ask the participants for other examples. Then ask the participants to complete Section “B” of the activity. This should take approximately 10 minutes. Ask them to discuss their sensitivity ratings and make the point that, like most other parts of the resilience process, it is important to be able to justify ratings and choices; it is an essential part of transparency and accountability. After they have completed the ratings, ask the participants to think about what outside sources of information might be useful for developing a robust understanding of sensitivity. Ask them to share examples. After this is complete, go over the text bullets one by one. Activity: Here the participants will address the questions on Worksheet 5, Sources of Information.

Cara “Bottom-Up” untuk menilai kerentanan Analisis Trend Iklim (Bahaya) Pemetaan partisipatif Pemetaan komunitas Analisis Kelembagaan Cerita lisan Pendekatan indikator mata pencaharian Kalender musiman Jadwal Transek Diskusi kelompok terfokus Decision tree Problem tree Delphi technique There are lots of tools available for conducting your vulnerability assessment. Here is a list of some of them. A great deal of guidance is available from a variety of online sources for each of these.

Tahap 2: Menilai tingkat eksposur warga, wilayah, dan aset dari sistem-sistem Mengumpulkan data dasar (“baseline”) bagi tiap ancaman pokok Kelompok atau golongan khusus yang rentan Wilayah ancaman bahaya (lereng, zona industri, perdaganang, perumahan, persisir, dll) Jasa kota utama dan fungsinya Facilitator: We are going to address each one of these aspects or elements of defining and clarifying the nature of the expected impacts shortly, but first we are going to discuss using various “mapping” techniques to geographically locate these people, places, and things (and their overlap as well) to aid in ‘visualizing’ the threats, the impacts, and the ultimate vulnerabilities to climate change and disaster risks.

Mengidentifikasi dan mendefinisikan kelompok-kelompok masyarakat Ada sejumlah cara untuk melakukan hal ini: Berdasarkan wilayah: lingkungan atau bagian kota di mana mereka tinggal Berdasarkan masyarakat: pria/wanita, muda, orang tua, kurang mampu, dan kelompok rentan lainnya Berupa pekerjaan atau status ekonomi: masyarakat yang bekerja dan menganggur, perpenghasilan rendah, dll

Mendefinisikan Tempat Berbeda dalam Daerah Analisis Eksposur Biasanya dilakukan oleh batas-batas politik atau administratif: kota atau pusat kota, wilayah metropolitan yang, provinsi, dll Dalam bidang analisis, unit yang lebih kecil sering digunakan, seperti lingkungan, kelurahan, atau kabupaten. Dalam pendekatan ini ada dua cara yang saling mengisi: top-down dan bottom-up. Batas fisik/alami, seperti sungai berjalan melalui kota, bukit, lembah, atau jenis lain, dll Pengecualian untuk ini adalah hubungan dengan daerah-daerah terpencil yang memberikan masukan penting untuk bidang analisis, seperti makanan atau pasokan air, industri, dan tenaga kerja

Sistem dukungan sosial Aset infrastruktur Aset layanan fungsi Satu Pendekatan yang telah kami terapkan adalah metodologi ‘Systems Egg” Sistem aset alami Aset manusia Aset ekonomi Sistem dukungan sosial Aset infrastruktur Aset layanan fungsi Sistem kelembagaan – ‘hati’ dari metodologi “Systems Egg” Natural Systems Human Systems Economic Systems Social Systems Built Environment Inputs/ Outputs Institutional One way to organize and systematize the process of estimating the adaptive or coping capacity of a given group, place, or thing or asset is to think about it in terms of ‘systems.” The International Center for Environmental Management (ICEM) has developed a Climate Change Adaptation Methodology (CAM) that is very useful in this regard. For example, one can look at any one of the following systems in terms of different people, places, or things to estimate whether it might ‘modify’ (prevent or mitigate) a climate risk, or exacerbate it. Natural systems– Ecological “system and services” underlie and sustain all others. They are ‘foundational” to the rest. The question here is: is there some aspect of the natural system that might make a town or city more, or less, resilient to climate change impacts, such as terrain or tree cover that might protect a given area from the worst effects of a storm, or trade winds or tidal patterns carrying away debris or wreckage? These are normally minimal, and should not be confused with the ‘sensitivity’ of a given group of people, places, or things. Human Capital or Assets – these include the educational background, training, or intellectual capacities of a given group of people to adapt to a shock or stress relative to other people. Perhaps, a certain group of people or those living in a given area have higher levels of education with access to more means of communication and transportation who might be able to prepare for, and recover from, such a stress or shock than other groups who cannot read, do not have TVs, or personal vehicles. This can and should be broken down or differentiated for specific vulnerable sub-populations, with particular emphasis placed on women, children, the elderly, the handicapped, and the poor who would likely be disproportionately affected by a given disturbance. Economic Assets– typically, the extent to which a given group or area has greater economic assets, the greater the likelihood that it has a higher level of adaptive capacity. People, places, and things with fewer economic assets are typically less able to adapt or cope with disasters and other changes to established patterns.. Social Safety-Net Support Systems – the extent to which people or places have social safety-net support networks, the better their chances of adapting or coping with sudden shocks or slow on-set changes. These can be neighborhood, church, school, workplace based, or other system. The ‘Built’ Environment & Infrastructure – the better the buildings & housing stock, or access to transportation, communications, and energy systems, the better the chances of greater adaptive capacity. Critical Inputs, Services and Functions – these include functioning food distribution, water supply and wastewater treatment , and solid waste collection & disposal systems. The greater the access to these critical systems, the greater the adaptive capacity generally. Institutional (Capacity) systems – Gov’t agencies at different levels, NGOs/CSOs, and private sector. This is probably the area of greatest Adaptive Capacity, which is why it is at the ‘core’ of the “System Egg” framework. Those people, places, and things that can better organize themselves to prepare for, and respond to, shocks and stresses will have greater adaptive capacity than those that don’t. At the community level (and higher), it is primarily institutions that allow us to take pre-emptive steps or response measures that increase our adaptive capacity. Individuals are more limited in what they can do in this sense. This approach has been modified from the ICEM conceptual model since it adds two additional ‘layers’ to the five contained in their ‘Systems Egg’ conceptual approach: Impacts to Humans (Death, injuries, and subsequent outbreaks of disease), and Damage to Critical Urban Inputs, Services or Functions. We should also cite ICEM (International Center for Environmental Management) located in Ha Noi, Viet Nam and CAM, which stands for Climate Change Adaptation Methodology. Mention that this approach is very similar to ACCCRN’s (Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network) approach, which has been field-tested in 10 cities in Asia. It is supported by The Rockefeller Foundation. ACTIVITY: Here the participants will address the questions in Worksheet 6: Estimating Exposure.

Exposure questions to address Think about one of the primary hazards in your kabupaten/kota Are there sub-populations that should be targeted? What geographic areas should be targeted? Which critical urban systems/functions/ and services should be targeted?

Dasar-dasar pemetaan… Menentukan ruang lingkup analisis (termasuk daerah-daerah terpencil yang memberikan masukan untuk daerah perkotaan atau menerima output dari mereka) Tentukan sarana pemetaan yang berbeda, tempat dan hal (aset atau sistem) dari yang sederhana hingga yang lebih kompleks Menciptakan peluang untuk memverifikasi 'pengelompokan' kategori dengan semua pemangku kepentingan sebelum memulai penilaian untuk memastikan ada kesepakatan tentang apa yang akan dianalisa. Menciptakan 'ruang' untuk dialog yang baik dan menyempurnakan berbagai persepsi antara para pemangku kepentingan yang berbeda. Facilitator Note: The following slides on mapping are optional and should be accompanied by the optional worksheet (“Collaborative Mapping”) should you choose to include this activity. Some basic considerations for mapping. The facilitator should go over these while the participants are working on the mapping activity. These points are meant to underscore real-world considerations that aren’t addressed in this activity --Participatory mapping is a facilitated process which is initially done with small, representatives of different stakeholder groups, but then is eventually shared with all major stakeholders/participants in order to reach a shared understanding and consensus on the analytical framework and units of analysis. --Participatory mapping allows individuals to learn about their own and others’ perceptions of threats and “resources or assets” (that is, different people, places and things). --This can involve a significant amount of time in the communities themselves, and reaching a sizeable number of communities can be difficult. However, there are strategies and approaches to manage this problem. -- Vulnerable or At-Risk Populations: the mapping exercise should focus on the poor, women, the young and the elderly, the mentally or physically handicapped, and other vulnerable sub-groups among the general population. -- Areas or ‘things’ of Special Significance: religious buildings, artifacts, and cemeteries, objects or structures of cultural or historic value, hospitals and other emergency response centers, public safety and health offices (police stations, health clinics, schools), evacuation or crisis centers and routes, employment centers (factories or shopping malls), etc. -- Natural Resource Areas: management of protected areas, conservation zones, critical habitats, resources of special concern, or protective resources (e.g., sand dunes, mangroves forest, stream buffers or steep mountain slopes), etc. -- High-Risk designated areas: known areas of potential hazard (e.g., tidal or tsunami zones, flood plains, areas prone to landslides). -- Early Warning Systems and evacuation plans: evacuation zones and routes, shelters or safe areas, such as community centers, schools, hospitals, Gov’t building, military bases or temporary shelters set up by aid agencies. --Critical public services or functions (among the “things” to analyze) may include: the transportation sector, such as roads, bridges, train and subway systems, airports, ports and harbors, the energy distribution system (especially electricity), communication systems (especially for cell phones), potable water and wastewater treatment facilities, food distribution system, etc.

The right hand picture shows a crop calendar from Malda District in India The bottom left picture is a FIRM map from Wilmington, Delaware. The bottom middle picture shows community members validating maps that have been prepared by the city.

Upper right is Lower right is mapping of traditional territory of the yukpa people in Venezuela

In some cases mapping might not be possible or necessary In some cases mapping might not be possible or necessary. If your vulnerability assessment focuses simply on assets, then you might use a checklist like the one shown from the US.

Your vulnerability assessment may be targeted at specific businesses of types of facilities. For example, this map shows potential flood exposure in Wilmington Delaware superimposed over hazardous material sites. This map combines exposure with sensitivity to highlight facilities for special attention.

Your vulnerability assessment might focus on certain segments of the population, as an effort to highlight or identify social vulnerability. For example, this map shows the population of people over the age of 65 in Hertford County, in North Carolina. This type of map could be combined with an exposure map, for example, a flood map, to prioritize areas for assisted evacuation.

Another proxy that can be used for sensitivity is poverty Another proxy that can be used for sensitivity is poverty. This is a poverty map from Makassar’s vulnerability assessment. This could simply be superimposed on an exposure map, or to come up with a more complex assessment, you could combine poverty with other proxies, such as % elderly.

Zona Evakuasi Setelah Superstorm Sandy di Kota New York Source: Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324766604578461210543507752 The participants should have the worksheet and instructions for the “Collaborative Mapping Activity” and should have been divided into groups of 4 by the facilitator. The first part of this mapping activity is to indicate areas exposed to a potential climate threat. For the activity the threat we have chosen is flooding at 1m, 2m, 3m, 4m, and 5m. The facilitator should briefly review the concept of exposure. The activity includes both magnitude and probability for each inundation event. These probabilities are contrived for the purposes of this activity only and should not be taken as actual predictions about the likelihood of inundation events. The probabilities have been added to encourage the participants to think about episodic exposure. The facilitator should allow time for the participants to develop their own acetate maps or transparencies. After they have finished, ask the groups to place their acetate maps in layers upon the base map that indicates the extent of areas directly affected by 1m, 2m, 3m, 4m and 5m floods. Then they should work together to fill out the table in section “A” of the activity worksheet. After section A is completed, pause the activity and move to the next slide.

Mendefinisikan wilayah yang terkena ancaman

Infrastruktur kritis yang rentan terhadap risko iklim This picture is of a flooded power station during the big Bangkok flood in 2011. We saw this slide before. From the Bangkok post. http://www.bangkokpost.com/multimedia/photo/262686/a-bird-eye-on-the-floods

Contoh kunci scoring Ekposur (menggunakan metode kombinasi) Cara untuk mengkarakterisasi atau memberikan nilai “scoring” antara berbagai tingkat eksposur Contoh kunci scoring Ekposur (menggunakan metode kombinasi) Tidak ada atau sangat rendah Eksposur (0 – 1 ) Eksposur rendah terhadap ancaman iklim (1 – 2) Eksposur menengah terhadap ancaman iklim (2 – 3) Eksposure tinggi terhadap ancaman iklim (3 – 4) Eksposur tinggi sekali dan bencana dapat diperkirakan (4 – 5) You can rate exposure in terms of severity. For example, exposure to events of different magnitude, or to anticipated likelihoods of the event occurring, and assign a value.

Makassar’s exposure assessment was done for each kecamatan, and used a simple binary rating for each of the main threats they identified. This totals were then combined to find an exposure rating to all threats.

Tahap 3: Memperkirakan sensitivitas dari sudut pandang orang yang berbeda, tempat, dan prasarana atau "Aset" Masyarakat: perempuan, tua, muda, sakit, miskin, kurang mampu, tokoh adat, budaya minoritas, dll Wilayah: bangunan tua atau perumahan sub-standar, tanah mudah tergerus, lereng bukit yang curam, daerah dataran rendah dengan sistem drainase yang buruk, terkena “efek panas pulau”, dll. Prasarana atau Aset: infrastruktur yang tidak dilindungi, yang terletak di daerah berisiko rawan, kurangnya kapasitas cadangan, dll Note to Facilitator: These three topics: People, Places, and Things, is used repeatedly throughout the VAA process. Here we just want to briefly introduce each topic separately because there will be follow-up slides (many with photos) to bring more focus and detail to this introductory slide to “Sensitivity.” Key questions to address during the sensitivity analysis include --How does climate affect the system you are analyzing? Are there direct effects on people, places, assets? Indirect effects? Long term impacts? Short term impacts? --How does climate variability and extreme events affect the system you are analyzing? --Will climate change affect sensitivity? How?

Apa arti “Sensitivitas”? Dapat diartikan dengan cara berbeda antara orang, tempat dan prasarana (Aset/Sistem). Semua bervariasi dalam sensitivitas mereka. Sensitivitas kecenderung tinggi kalau masyarakat lokal memiliki ketergantungan tinggi pada sumber daya alam dan ekosistem Sensitivitas tinggi dapat memperburuk eksposur yang sudah ada Contoh: Kelompok atau jenis orang yang rentan akan lebih 'sensitif' atas guncangan. Sistem drainase yang buruk akan membuat kondisi lebih parah. Here are some important points to bear in mind when thinking about sensitivity. The participants may have already brought these up in the previous slide. Make sure to emphasize to the participants that In the vulnerability assessment process, participants may choose to define sensitivity using a qualitative scale (e.g. high, medium, low), or a quantitative scale (e.g. 1-5), but in any case it is important to have a key that explains what the rankings actually mean.

Kartun yang menjelaskan Sensitivitas, namun ini bukan hal lucu Note to Facilitator: for those who might not know this ‘children’s tale” about the Three Little Piggies and the Big Bad Wolf… There once was a Big, Bad Wolf who wanted to eat three little piggies. So, to protect themselves, each piggy built a house and went inside to be safe from the wolf. But, the wolf came and threatened to “huff and puff and blow their houses down!” The 1st piggy built his house out of straw, which the wolf easily blew down, but the 1st little piggy escaped unseen to the 2nd little piggy’s house, which was made of wood. So, when the wolf figured out that the 1st little piggy had escaped to the 2nd little piggy’s house, he went over there and told them to come out or he would “huff and puff and blow your house down!” Well, they didn’t come out, of course, but he finally huffed and puffed hard enough to blow down their house. But, in the big pile of broken wooden beams and planks, the two little piggies ran off to their brother’s house, which was made of brick. Furious, the wolf went there when he figured out that he had been tricked again by the little piggies. Well, he threatened to “huff and puff and blow your house down!” But, he couldn’t because it was too strong and withstood his attempts to destroy it. So, the three little piggies were all saved from the wolf! An interesting and hopefully similar parable for your town or city in the face of the Big, Bad Wolf of Climate Change!

Kelompok tertentu lebih sensitif pada bencana Children are another vulnerable sub-population. They are vulnerable for a number of reasons --Their education can be disrupted by climate change related events (upper left picture from UNICEF: http://learningforpeace.unicef.org/resources/the-role-of-education-in-protecting-children-and-communities-when-disaster-strikes/) --They also may suffer emotional or psychological trauma. (Picture from growingmychild.com, which has a guide to helping children facing disasters. http://www.growingmychild.com/childrenanddisasters.htm)

Sebagian kelompok lebih sensitif dan tidak bisa beradaptasi terhadap guncangan This is a picture from the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, one of the most devastating disasters in US history. Immobile hospital patience, disabled people, and the elderly were particularly hard hit in this situation because many care facilities did not have appropriate procedures and plans for dealing with the massive flooding caused by the hurricane. Source: http://archive.firstcoastnews.com/news/article/325866/6/Gulf-Coast-marks-8th-anniversary-of-Hurricane-Katrina

Berapa sensitif tempat ini (warga, tempat, modal) pada anacaman iklim? The next step in the activity is to define levels of sensitivity for the various people, place, and ‘things’ or assets. Ask the participants to reflect on the scene in the image on this slide. Is this something that is familiar to them in their cities? What sorts of challenges do the people living here face? What sorts of challenges do they pose for the resilience planning process?

Bagaimana kita mengkarakterisasi atau memberikan “scoring” di berbagai tingkat sensitivitas? Dengan cara yang sama yang kita gunakan untuk eksposur! Dengan “scoring” yang berdasarkan angka, warna, dan penjelasan lain (dan kombinasi antara metode ini) Sebagai contoh, ini merupakan matriks sensitivitas dengan lima tingkat: ACTIVITY: Here the participants will complete worksheet 7, Estimating Sensitivity

Again we turn to Makassar, where they identified several proxies for sensitivity. They then used a simple binary rating and summed the sensitivity for each kecamatans.

Questions for addressing sensitivity What factors contribute to sensitivity of people, places, and things? How would you measure the sensitivity of people, places, and things to different threats? How would you develop an assessment or rating key for gauging sensitivity to increased flooding?

Tahap 4: Menentukan dampak potentsi DAMPAK adalah hasil dari eksposur dikali sensitivitas… DAMPAK = Eksposur x Sensitivitas Dampak langsung: dampak yang dirasakan masyarakat, wilayah, dan benda/aset yang jelas dapat ditentukan. Dampak tidak langsung: termasuk dampak merambat yang mungkin sulit dijelaskan atau dipahami, akan tetapi dapat memberikan dampak besar jangka panjang! Defining impact. Impact is the product (the result of) exposure combined with sensitivity. Impacts can be direct or indirect. The facilitator can ask for some examples of each. If the participants have a hard time generating indirect impacts, the facilitator should prompt them. For example, if a road is washed out, what is the impact on food security? Examples of impacts include loss of life and damage due to storms, flooding, fire, or earthquake; famine or disease; failed systems such as energy supply, food distribution, water supply and wastewater treatment, trash collection/disposal, medical and emergency services, etc.

Matriks “Scoring” mengenai dampak dapat membantu. Contohnya: Bagaimana cara menentukan dampak ancaman bahaya iklim terhadap masyarakat, wilayah, dan aset/benda Matriks “Scoring” mengenai dampak dapat membantu. Contohnya: Activity: Here the participants will complete worksheet 8: Estimating Impacts

This map represents an effort to map potential cascading impacts This map represents an effort to map potential cascading impacts. The colors on the map represent wildfire risk, green is low and yellow is high. The red dots represent specific places with hazardous materials, and around those hazardous materials sights buffer has been created where the potential threat from the hazardous materials could pose a threat to residents. These areas represent places that have been targeted for protective actions. This map is from Hertford County, in North Carolina.

Considering Impacts… What kinds of direct impacts would you expect to people, places, and things for each threat? What kind of metric or rating key would you use? What kinds of indirect impacts might you expect? How would you gather information about these impacts?

Tahap 5: Penilaian Kapasitas Adaptif SDA, teknologi, lembaga-lembaga, infrastruktur, sosialisasi untuk menganggulangi bencana Mengenal faktor penting yang memberdayakan sistem untuk mencegah atau mengurangi kerugian dari risiko iklim Mengumpulkan informasi dari diskusi kelompok terfokus (dengan instansi pemerintah, masyarakat, LSM, sektor swasta, universitas, lembaga penelitian lain, dll.) Pertanyaan kunci termasuk…. This brings us to Step 5: Adaptive Capacity, which estimates the ability of an individual, group of people, different places and urban systems or functions to respond to impacts. Adaptive capacity is specific to a given context and time; it is not static. It changes in response to different economic, social, political and institutional conditions from country to country, and community to community. Adaptive capacity is often considered to the component of vulnerability most amenable to influence, and so it provides a key entry point for adaptation planning. Key questions to address when assessing adaptive capacity to climate impacts include 1. Who needs to adapt? 2. What are the barriers to adaptation 3. What appears to enable adaptation processes? BRING IN THE FIRST BULLET: Point for discussion: Ask the participants to consider what ‘things’ or elements would contribute to a town’s capacity to adapt or cope with a severe stress or shock, and become more resilient? Ask them if it might include some of the items mentioned in the 1st bullet, and provide some examples. These might include money (resources) to better prepare or protect oneself, a better education, higher income, or access to assets like cars, health care, or other technologies, or social assets such as social safety networks associated with neighborhoods, school, or churches, and local customs and traditions. At the community or town level, it might include strong, accountable, and transparent governance structures, good leadership and leaders with vision, and involved communities and civil society organizations. BRING IN THE SECOND BULLET. We focus on the adaptive capacity of institutions and agencies, which is expanded upon in Modules 4 and 5. However, here we can briefly describe a few factors that can influence an agency’s (or individual’s) ability to respond effectively to climate change impacts. Understanding these elements of adaptive capacity help us to determine overall vulnerability, which in turn allows us to identify strategies and priorities for developing potential policies, plans, and projects to build greater resilience. Ask the participants to identify some examples. These might include the following: --managerial (institutional) ability to respond efficiently and effectively? --access to financial, technological, and information resources? --Infrastructure and physical assets, such as vehicles and equipment? --An enabling political environment that supports building greater resilience? NEXT BULLET. How might you gather data about adaptive capacity? There are a number of ways; you can use available data to estimate adaptive capacity. However, one of the most important ways is through direct contact with experts or representatives of target groups with knowledge or perspectives you want or need to determine adaptive capacity. Focus groups and key informant interviews are useful tools. NEXT BULLET. Tools, such as ICEM’s “System Egg” framework or using the SD approach, can help organize and ‘systematize” the process of estimating the adaptive capacities of different groups or types of people, places, and things or assets. We will discuss some of those tools next. Some key questions to address about adaptive capacity include --How have the key environmental, socio-economic, and developmental issues been addressed in the past? --What response measures currently exist to deal with climate variability and hazards? --Have the response measures specifically addressed the identified hotspots? --How effective have the response measures been? --What factors have determined the effectiveness of idenfied response measures?

Pengukuran Kapasitas Adaptif Bagaimana anda dapat memahami dan mengukur KA? Betapa efektif dan memungkinkan upaya ini akan berhasil untuk mencegah, mengurangi, dan memitigasi dampak dari guncangan atau gangguan? Betapa mungkin upaya ini akan membantu mengurangi dampak guncangan atau gangguan? Proses apa akan anda ikuti untuk memberikan nilai terhadap KA? Dalam arti kata lain, siapa akan mengambil keputusan dan bagaimana cara pelaksanaannya akan dijalankan? You quantify adaptive capacity to combine it with impact to determine vulnerability. How would you categorize AC into a scoring/rating system? (1 – 5, color coded, or low-med-high) Basically, the Question is: How Effective and Feasible do you think these measures/actions taken to prevent, minimize, or mitigate the impacts of disturbances will be? How much are they likely to reduce the impacts of disturbance – a little or a lot? (Just like with estimating Threats, Exposures, Sensitivities and Impacts, it is difficult, but not impossible, to estimate the likely effectiveness and feasibility of the Adaptive (or Coping) Capacity in an urban area to arrive at a relative ranking of its greatest Vulnerabilities to climate / disaster risks. Use the Shared Learning Dialogue process to arrive at Vulnerability scores or rankings. It is important to remember that this process is more art than science, and that arriving at consensus through dialogue is more important than trying to arrive at exact values/scores (the problem of “false precision”). Greater Adaptive (Coping) Capacity reduces the Impact and thus the Vulnerability ranking; less Adaptive (Coping) Capacity reduces the Impact less, and thus has less effect on the final Vulnerability score or ranking. Provide participants with a blank matrix and have them fill in cells to reflect different ACs. USE MODULE 3, ACTIVITY 3 HERE?

Key aspects of Adaptive Capacity This image is a diagram from Canada’s government web-resources on climate change resilience. It describes how some of the key aspects of adaptive capacity go together. Ask the participants to discuss this diagram. What aspects of adaptive capacity could the government help with? How? Credit: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/environment/resources/publications/impacts-adaptation/reports/assessments/2008/ch2/10319 Note that this is a good reference on climate change concepts.

Menilai Kapasitas Adaptasi Just like for Exposure and Sensitivity, develop a scale (descriptive, numerical, or color-coded) to rate the relative adaptive or coping capacity of whatever groups of people, places, or things/assets you are analyzing in your VAA. Use the Shared Learning Dialgoue process to assign values to different people, places, and things/assets, such as: Note to Facilitator: What we have done here is used a combination of scoring approaches to build a simple scale to rate the relative adaptive or coping capacity of various groups of people, places, or things. This aggregate score can be arrived at by considering any or all of the elements or aspects that a workgroup or committee decides is appropriate, such as do they have financial resources with a given shock or slower change over time? Do they have access to infrastructure and other physical assets, such as cars or equipment to help them prepare for, or recover from, a shock? Can they get medical treatment for injuries or illness, and/or emergency responses to their needs for temporary housing, food, and/or water, etc.? It’s the answers to these types of questions that allow us to distinguish roughly whether one group of people, or area within the town or city, or critical urban system has greater or lesser relative adaptive or coping capacity. We have adopted a 5-point scale with a simple descriptor and a color coding system to indicate their relative capacity. Different scales (e.g., 1 – 10), descriptors (from simpler to more complex and articulated descriptions of what constitutes each level), and colors (ranging from just three to as many as are deemed reasonably distinguishable). Stress to the course participants that these are only examples, and that they should experiment with, or adjust them, as they wish or they best. Important Points about “good process leading to good results” and “false precision”: It is recommended that workgroups or committees incorporate the views, inputs, and perspectives of as many different affected or interested groups of stakeholders as possible. We recommend the Shared Learning Dialogue process, described before. This is just a continuation of the same process as before. Secondly, it is probably best to stay away from overly complex or highly differentiated scoring scales (say from 1 – 100 points, or with 20 or 25 different colors, or different descriptive categories) as these things are hard to know with any precision, accuracy or certainty. Thus, one can easily fall into the trap of “false precision,” that is, of making it seem like they know or can estimate Adaptive Capacity (or Exposure or Sensitivity to a lesser extent) with such precision, accuracy, or certainty. It is illusory. However, that said, it is still possible and useful to make rough or crude distinctions between one group of people, places, or things in terms of their Adaptive Capacity (or Exposure or Sensitivity for that matter). Activity: Here the participatns will complete worksheet 9, Estimating Adaptive Capacity None to Very Low Adaptive Capacity (AC) (0 – 1 ) Limited Access to various elements of AC (1 – 2) Moderate Degree of Adaptive Capacity (2 – 3) High Degree of Adaptive Capacity (3 – 4) Very High Degree of AC (4 – 5)

In Makassar a variety of bottom up tools were used to determine adaptive capacity in each kecamatan. They addressed several forms of adaptive capacity: Autonomous: this is things that people do themselves Collective: These are community level interventions. Institutional: refers to the available of services in the community.

Adaptive Capacity Considerations What factors are relevant for preventing or lessening potential damages from climate risks to people, places, and things? What sorts of information do you need to measure adaptive capacity? How would you rate or categorize adaptive capacity?

Tahap 6: Menentukan kerentanan masyarakat, wilayah, dan aset/benda Apa itu kerentanan? Bagaimana kita menggunakannya sebagai konsep? Pentingnya mempertimbangkan ketidakpastian dari proyeksi Apakah kita dapat memperkirakan kelompok yang paling terancam dari dampak perubahan iklim? Apakah kita dapat memperkirakan wilayah yang paling terancam? Apakah kita dapat memperkirakan aset/benda (berupa sarana dan prasarana) yang paling terancam? Apakah kita dapat menjelaskan semua hal ini kepada orang lain supaya dapat cepat dipahami, dan mendapatkan dukungan terhadap prioritas ini?

Beberapa hal dasar mengenai kerentanan Kerentanan adalah dampak (dikurangi kapasitas masyarakat beradaptasi) yang diperkirakan akan dialami oleh masyarakat, wilayah, dan benda Secara matematika, bisa dianalisa dengan K = D / KA, tetapi juga dapat dipahami melalui penjelasan yang deskriptif (misalnya, tinggi, menengah, atau rendah) ataupun dari kode warna (seperti, hijau – kuning – merah). Karena ketidakpastian tinggi, kerentanan hanya boleh dikatakan sebagai ukuran yang relatif This can be done mathematically by adding individual scores for the expected degree of exposure for each category or system affected by disturbance; it could also be done by averaging color codes to arrive at an overall color, as is done to indicate level of fire danger, beach safety, and sailing conditions as an easy way to communicate to the public about hazardous conditions; Or in a narrative fashion, summarizing key expected exposures across systems and areas. There are many ways to describe or summarize level of exposure; using a combination of methods is probably a preferable approach

Total across Groups for each Threat Penduduk yang memiliki resiko paling tinggi menghadapi ancaman resiko iklim People at Risk Threat Vulnerable Group # 1 Vulnerable Group # 2 Vulnerable Group # 3 Vulnerable Group # 4 Total across Groups for each Threat SLR & Flooding High Medium Med-High Landslides Low Med-Low Drought Medium-High Heat Waves Food & Water Security Etc… ? TOTAL for Each Group Note to Facilitator: What this slide shows is a hypothetical example of priority Climate Threats (in the far left column) classified by the level of vulnerability they pose to different groups of people. In this example, those “Vulnerable Groups 1 – 4” are not given specific names, but they could easily represent various types of people, such as ‘women, children, the elderly, physically or mentally handicapped, special needs such as the hospitalized patients or members of the LGBT community,” etc. Alternatively, they could be groups of people with something in common, such as where they live so that the groupings could be organized by neighborhoods or the areas in town where they live that pose different risks, such as a particular slum or an informal community. However, even within these areas, there will remain large differences in the vulnerabilities of different people living in those areas. In whatever way that it is done, it is important to keep in mind that the idea is to identify different groupings of people with different, and in some cases, greater vulnerabilities so that their special needs can be planned for and taken into account. In this example, we have used both five (5) simple narrative descriptors (high, medium-high, medium, medium-low, and low) coupled with color codes (blue for low, green for medium-low, yellow for medium, orange for medium-high, and red for high vulnerability) to help identify them quickly and easily. Once we have filled in the matrix through a consensus-building process among core team members with inputs from key stakeholders, then we will need to arrive at an overall score by Threat AND Vulnerable Group. This can be done in various ways, from very quantitative, rule-driven processes, to more intuitive or subjective ways of ‘averaging out’ different individual scores to arrive at an overall score for each Threat and Vulnerable Group. The decision about which approach to take should be decided by the core team beforehand and checked with the participants for their concurrence. The process of getting different perspectives and thoughts from various stakeholders is critically important to achieving a consensus-based, stable and lasting, score or result. The more that scores are based on a broad spectrum of inputs in an open and transparent forum based as much as possible on facts and evidence, the better the results will tend to be. The Shared Learning Dialogue (SLD) process is ideally suited for this type of scoring activity in determining the relative Vulnerability of different Climate Threats in terms of their impacts on different People, Places, and ‘Things’ (that is, Urban Services, Functions, or Assets).

Lokasi yang memiliki resiko tinggi terhadap resiko ancaman iklim Places at Risk Threat Area # 1 Area # 2 Area # 3 Area # 4 Total across Areas for each Threat SLR & Flooding 9 10 5 6 30 Landslides 1 7 Drought 2 3 11 Heat Waves 4 8 Food & Water Security Etc… ? TOTAL for Each Place 12 16 25 Note to Facilitator: What this slide shows is the prioritized set of Climate Threats scored according to the vulnerability of four (4) different hypothetical areas. The process and method are the same as above for different “Vulnerable Groups of People,” except in this case, we are determining the vulnerability (anticipated impacts ‘modified’ by that area’s specific adaptive or coping capacity) of different areas to the impacts of various climate change threats as they have been either accentuated or decreased by specific attributes of that area. Once we arrive at a score for each area for the list of climate Threats, then we need to aggregate them as we did before. Again, this can be done quantitatively (as it was in this case), or more intuitively, by using narrative descriptors or color codes, as we also did here. In many cases, combining different scoring methods works very well, as it accommodates more peoples’ different ways of thinking or processing information. In this example, as we can see above, only two ‘areas’ had high vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Flooding. Only one area (Area #4) had “medium-high’ vulnerability to all of the combined climate Threats, while just one Threat (Sea Level Rise and Flooding) had a combined “medium-high’ vulnerability score for all four areas. We can also see that there was one area (Area #2) that had ‘medium’ vulnerability across all climate Threats while two Threats had a combined ‘medium’ vulnerability score for all the areas investigated on average. And so on…

Total across Systems for each Threat Benda atau aset yang beresiko tinggi menghadapi ancaman iklim – contoh lain Assets at Risk Threat Asset # 1: Water Supply Asset # 2: Electric Grid Asset # 3: Transport-ation Asset # 4: Solid Waste System Total across Systems for each Threat SLR & Flooding Landslides Drought Heat Waves Food & Water Security Etc… ? TOTAL for Each Place Note to Facilitator: What this slide shows is the same list of Climate Threats in terms of the estimated Vulnerability of various Critical Urban Systems, Functions, or Assets (“Things”). We arbitrarily picked out four (4) commonly important, and vulnerable, urban systems. In reality, there would likely be several more worth considering and analyzing in terms of their vulnerability. In this case, we did not use narrative descriptors or numerical values, only colors, to show the differences in Vulnerability of different Climate Threats across Critical Urban Systems, Functions, or Assets (far right-hand column), and the vulnerability of those “things” across various priority Climate Threats (bottom row). In this hypothetical example, only one Climate Threat was estimated as having “high” vulnerability across all four Critical Urban Systems, Functions, or Assets, but none of these assets reflected ‘high’ vulnerability across the list of Climate Threats (only “Water Supply” had “medium-high’ vulnerability for all the Climate Threats listed on average). ACTIVITY: Here the participants will complete worksheet 10, Determining Vulnerability.

Vulnerability considerations What methodology would you use to assess vulnerability for specific groups of people, places, things What city agency, organization, or department is in charge of those groups, places, things? Which government policy makes the laws and policies determining how these groups, places, and things operate? If these groups, places, and things are impacted, how long does it take to recover? What agencies or authorities are involved in the recovery process?

Tahap 7: Mengutamakan Kerentanan Ancaman Iklim yang berdampak kepada masyarakat, wilayah, dan benda/aset Setelah kita sudah mengumpulkan scoring per penduduk, wilayah, dan prasarana/sarana penting … Bagaimana kita mengambil kesimpulan dari hasil penilaian kerentanan atau memprioritaskan upaya mengurangi resiko ancaman iklim? Anda akan melakukan pendekatan seperti apa? Apakah ada cara lain, yang mungkin lebih mendalam untuk menentukan prioritas?

Cara-cara yang berbeda untuk menilai kerentanan melalui scoring Pendekatan “Rounding Up” (pengumpulan ke atas) Ambil nilai angka paling tinggi untuk menentukan scoring. Pendekatan “Rata-rata” (direkomendasikan) Ambil nilai rata-rata dari proses scoring. Ini bisa dilakukan secara sederhana atau membuat kerangka yang lebih detil. Metode kuantitatif Menggunakan angka untuk mengelompokkan scoring dan memberikan tingkat kerentanan Metode yang lebih kualitatif Memberikan lebih banyak informasi detil.

Menganalisa hasil penilaian kerentanan dengan menggunakan pendekatan “rata-rata” Apa kerentanan tertinggi secara relatif? Kerentanan menengah-keatas? Kerentanan menengah? Kerentanan menengah-kebawah? Nilai prioritas kerentanan terendah secara relatif? This is the final step (step 5) in the activity. Follow the directions on the worksheet; the outcome will be a list of prioritized vulnerabilities determined by the participants. Make sure to record these on a flip chart because they will be used in Module 4. ASK the participants to Rank or Prioritize Vulnerability for People, Places, and Things/Assets Then, see how this stacks up against their ranking or ordering of Vulnerability: Highest Vulnerability: (2) SLR & Flooding for All 4 Critical Urban Systems Heat Waves for People (3 out of 4 groups) Medium-High Vulnerability: (7) Vulnerable Groups 1 & 2 across all Threats (2) SLR & Flooding + Drought for People (2) SLR & Flooding for Areas (High in 2 areas) Area 4 from all Threats combined (highest ranked area) Water Supply from all Threats combined Medium Vulnerability: (10) Vulnerable Groups 3 & 4 (2) Electric Grid and Transport from all Threats (2) Drought and Heat Waves in Areas (2) Area 2 from all Threats combined Food & Water Security for People and Systems (2) Landslides affecting Critical Systems Medium-Low Vulnerabilities: (7) Landslides for People and Areas (2) Areas 1 & 3 Food & Water in Areas Drought across Systems Solid Waste System Lowest Relative Vulnerabilities: (1) Heat Waves for Critical Systems

Pendekatan “Rata-rata” Pendekatan “Rounded Up” Membandingkan antara pendekatan penilaian “scoring” yang berbeda dari contoh kita Ada perbedaan antara dua pendekatan scoring: 2 hingga 17 untuk hal yang sama Ada banyak prioritas tinggi (18) dibanding prioritas rendah Pendekatan “rata-rata” memiliki “distribusi normal” (menengah) Pendekatan “Rata-rata” Pendekatan “Rounded Up” Tinggi 2 17 M-T 7 1 Men-engah 10 8 M-R Rendah Total 27 Activity: Here the participants will complete worksheet 11, Prioritizing Vulnerability.

Ringkasan Hari ini kami telah diskusikan konsep eksposur, sensitivitas, kapasitas adaptif, dan kerentanan Kami sudah diskusikan perbedaan antara dampak langsung dan dampak tidak langsung Kami sudah melakukan Penilaian Kerentanan dan Adaptasi (PKA) sederhana Kami sudah menyusun daftar prioritas pokok untuk mengatasi kerentanan We have developed a list of priority assets, areas and groups requiring adaptation actions. In the next module we’re going to work to develop policy and program options. Then we’ll develop criteria for evaluating those options. Lastly, we’ll apply our evaluation criteria to narrow down the candidate programs and policies to specific recommendations to be implemented.

Tahap berikutnya dalam proses: Mengembangkan prioritas untuk mengatasi kerentanan terhadap perubahan iklim Prioritas-prioritas kerentanan dapat berfungsi sebagai proses awal untuk mengidentifikasi, menilai, dan memilih tindakan aksi dalam menanggapi kerentanan Prioritas untuk mengatasi kerentanan merupakan bagian dari rencana Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim dan Ketangguhan (APIK) Modul berikutnya berfokus pada prinsip ketangguhan dan membantu peserta mengidentifikasi pilihan-pilihan ketangguhan yang tepat!

Sampai modul yang berikutnya! This slide says “thank you” in Khmer.